Stuttgart and ‘s-Hertogenbosch previews and predictions

Rafael Nadal’s two-month monopoly (or at least close to it) of the ATP Tour has come and gone, as an eventful but also entirely unsurprising clay-court swing gives way to grass. Now the ball is in Roger Federer’s court. The Swiss, who has not played since suffering his first two losses of 2018 in back-to-back matches (Indian Wells final and Miami opener), is joined this week in Stuttgart by Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic. In ‘s-Hertogenbosch, meanwhile, a much weaker field includes Adrian Mannarino, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Muller, and Ivo Karlovic.

Mercedes Cup

Where: Stuttgart, Germany
Surface: Grass
Prize money: 656,015 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Lucas Pouille

Draw analysis: Like he did last year, Federer skipped the clay-court swing to rest up for grass. And why not? It worked out perfectly for him in 2017. The Swiss actually lost right away at this Stuttgart event to Tommy Haas, but he won both Halle and Wimbledon without surrendering a single set. Another strong field and difficult draw awaits him this week, featuring a likely opener against Germany’s Mischa Zverev, a possible quarterfinal date with Denis Shapovalov, and potential semifinal foes in Kyrgios and Feliciano Lopez. Kyrgios’ first singles match of his latest comeback from injury could be a tough one against Maximilian Marterer.

The bottom half of the draw is more wide open, with two of the three seeds either slumping (Lucas Pouille and Tomas Berdych) or rusty (Raonic). Philipp Kohlschreiber may be able to capitalize in front of the home crowd, but he could have a tough time of things with formidable grass-court performer Denis Istomin in round one. Pouille, the No. 2 seed and possible quarterfinal opponent for Kohlschreiber, cannot be discounted as Stuttgart’s defending champion.

First-round upset alert: Denis Istomin over (5) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is the essence of an all-court player, so he should not have much trouble making the transition from clay to grass. Thus the German is an obvious favorite in this one, but an upset is not out of the question. Istomin leads the head-to-head series 4-2 (3-2 at the ATP level), including 1-0 on grass (4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 in the 2011 Wimbledon first round). The 100^th-ranked Uzbek has captured one of his two career titles on the green stuff (Nottingham in 2015).

Hot: Maximilian Marterer, Marton Fucsovics

Cold: Lucas Pouille, Tomas Berdych, Nick Kyrgios, Milos Raonic, Viktor Troicki

Semifinal predictions: Roger Federer over Feliciano Lopez and Philipp Kohlschreiber over Tomas Berdych

Final: Federer over Kohlschreiber

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Libema Open

Where: ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands
Surface: Grass
Prize money: 612,755 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Adrian Mannarino
Defending champion: Gilles Muller

Draw analysis: French Open doubles champion Nicolas Mahut is not playing, so everyone else has a chance! Okay, that is an exaggeration; but it is true that Mahut has won this tournament three of the last five years. The defending champion, however, is back; Muller, also the runner-up to Mahut in 2016, aims for a third consecutive final in what looks like a relatively soft top half of the bracket. The Luxembourgian’s opener, though, could be a problem because both Matthew Ebden and Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Mahut’s French Open-winning partner) can be dangerous on grass with their net-charging tactics. If one of the semis turns out to be Muller vs. Mannarino, a free lesson in grass-court tennis would ensue.

Gasquet, Karlovic, Fernando Verdasco, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Robin Haase, and Daniil Medvedev will be among those battling it out on the other side. Karlovic and Haase are going head-to-head in an intriguing first-rounder, while Gasquet and Tsitsipas are on a collision course for the quarterfinals.

First-round upset alert: Ivo Karlovic over (6) Robin Haase. They faced each other in the ‘s-Hertogenbosch quarterfinals in 2015, when Haase scraped through 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3). Their only other encounter came back in 2007 at a clay-court Challenger in Croatia and—unsurprisingly—it also featured two tiebreakers (Haase won 7-6(12), 7-6(5)). In general, though, it is no secret that the Dutchman is an underwhelming tiebreaker player. Almost any Karlovic grass-court match is a 50-50 proposition, so this will come down to who can serve better on the biggest points.

Hot: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Cold: Marcos Baghdatis

Semifinal predictions: Adrian Mannarino over Gilles Muller and Richard Gasquet over Ivo Karlovic

Final: Mannarino over Gasquet

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!