Stuttgart SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Kyrgios, Raonic vs. Pouille

In six career sets against one another, Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios have played six tiebreakers. Will the trend continue during semifinal action in Stuttgart on Saturday? Milos Raonic and Lucas Pouille are also aiming for a spot in the title match.

(1) Roger Federer vs. (4) Nick Kyrgios

Federer and Kyrgios will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they clash in the Mercedes Cup semifinals on Saturday. The head-to-head history could not be more competitive; they have split their two previous encounters and every single one of their six contested sets has required a tiebreaker. Kyrgios scored a 6-7(2), 7-6(5), 7-6(12) upset at the 2015 Madrid Masters, while Federer prevailed 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) last season in Miami.

Despite extended layoffs for both players, they managed to survived the early stages in Stuttgart and set up a third career showdown. Federer fell to Juan Martin Del Potro in the Indian Wells final, lost his Miami opener against Thanasi Kokkinakis, and then once again skipped the clay-court swing. The 36-year-old is back in the win column with defeats of Mischa Zverev (3-6, 6-4, 6-2) and Guido Pella (6-4, 6-4), and he will be back at No. 1 in the world if he emerges victorious on Friday. Kyrgios had not played a singles match since mid-April due to an elbow injury, but he punched his ticket to the last eight thanks to three-set defeats of Maximilian Marterer and Feliciano Lopez. Both results are solid ones for the 24th-ranked Aussie, who fired 20 aces in each match. Kyrgios’ serve should make him competitive on yet another occasions against Federer, but the Swiss will likely avoid the kind of careless mistakes that could creep into his opponent’s game when the pressure mounts.

Pick: Federer in 3

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(7) Milos Raonic vs. (2) Lucas Pouille

Speaking of layoffs, Raonic had gone exactly one month without taking the match court until he defeated Mirza Basic 7-6(8), 6-2 in the Stuttgart first round. The Canadian pulled the plug on his clay-court swing due to a knee injury following consecutive third-round performances in Monte-Carlo and Madrid. Raonic followed up his victory over Basic by beating Marton Fucsovics and Tomas Berdych–also in straight sets. Although he currently registers at 35th in the world, Raonic is expect to reach No. 32 even if he loses on Friday and his grass-court points from recent seasons should have him in line for a Wimbledon seed.

Up next for the former world No. 3 on Saturday is a third career contest against Pouille. Raonic is sweeping the head-to-head series 2-0, with a pair of 2016 straight-set wins in Brisbane and at the Australian Open. Fast forward two years, though, and Pouille is squarely in his prime with a ranking of 17th and five career ATP titles under his belt. A consistently inconsistent performer, Pouille either reached the final or lost his opening match at all five of his events worth less than 1000 points in 2018. The streak will hit six if the Frenchman gets the best of Raonic. That is easier said than done–especially on grass–and Raonic’s serve will likely be too big as long as his body is up for at least one more match this week.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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61 Comments on Stuttgart SF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Kyrgios, Raonic vs. Pouille

  1. It’s a tough call because both guys have played very little tennis until now, and they both always seem to bring the best out of each other. This court looks to me as if it’s playing like a skating rink compared to other modern grass courts, so that favors both of them. Kyrgios can play a whole season of mostly not-so-great tennis, but the few matches he plays incredibly are usually against the best players. I still believe that Kyrgios is the best server on tour when he’s locked in and cares. It should be extremely difficult for Fed to break him.

    I really do believe this one could go either way, but judging by Fed’s form today, I gotta roll with Federer in 3rd set tiebreak. Probably 3 tiebreaks at that. But I also won’t be surprised at all if Kyrgios wins… If this were Wimbledon, I’d pick Fed all day. But in best-of-3 on grass

  2. I think this match is a genuine toss-up. If Kygrios plays the way he’s capable of, and has shown flashes of the last two matches, he will be very tough to beat. His serve is a bit better than Fed’s, he’s been crushing the ball, and he’s been moving exceptionally well; he can be very deceptive in that regard. Plus, he tends to bring his best tennis when playing the best.

    Although I think Fed is highly motivated to get back to #1, he realizes that the more important thing is to continue to improve his form for Halle and esp. wimby. He’s won a couple close ones against Kyrgios, but I have a feeling this one goes the other way. Kyrgios in 3 close sets.

  3. Same picks as Ricky but I think Fed/Nick is a toss up due to it being a best of three match on grass and given their other two prior meetings. Either way it should be a really good battle

  4. Kevin JUNE 15, 2018 AT 10:57 PM
    “If this were Wimbledon, I’d pick Fed all day. But in best-of-3 on grass.”

    ***********************************
    Is Fed not supposed to be the King of Grass?

    • Fed wins the deciding breaker and regains the number 1 ranking. Rafa fans have started to disappear from this forum who were active once Fed lost the first set.

          • Benny G JUNE 16, 2018 AT 4:44 PM,

            I use Fedfans’ phrases I have read after Rafa has been successful.

          • Yeah but what Fed fan on here even says stuff like that? There’s no point in trolling Fed fans on here with that when you’re taking it from other sites.

      • You know sometimes life intervened and it’s not just about tennis. I saw the first set but had to leave at that point.

        So my leaning had nothing to do with Fed winning. I just was not able to see the rest of the match. It’s kind of juvenile and silly to read too much sometimes into why people are it here commenting to the end of match.
        😉

  5. Nice win for Fed to regain the #1 ranking. Kyrgios didn’t make it easy for him, apart from the second set. Nick hit two fantastic shots to start the 3rd set tiebreak, but Fed hung in there. Well deserved return to the top spot for Fed with a tough win over a quality opponent.

    • Rafa and Fed tossing the #1 around? 😀 I didn’t know it.

      Picked Djokovic to win London or Fevertree as it is.

  6. Oh!…Rafa fans still here fedexal!….Much congrats to Fed for back to No 1…

    And much congrats to ALL Fedfans on here…Joe,Benny,Eugene,Kevin,Big Al & others whom i can’t remember their name atm…Sorry!..too sleepyyyy….

    Enjoy this moment guyz!!…It’s your turn!!..And u all deserve it!

  7. Number one again! Hasn’t played the French Open since 2015 and hasn’t played on clay since 2016 yet he’s still able to grab world number one at THIRTY SIX YEARS OLD #FedExpress

    • This will keep switching Benny between both as it has been all year…key is who will get it end of year…I think Wimbledon outcome may decide it..

      • Sanju, I agree. Wimby might decide the year-end No 1. If Fed manages to defend his title, he has a very good chance for the year-end pole position, since Rafa missed so many points from the early hardcourt season and we really don’t know if he can add another USO title to his collection. Last year’s title was a pleasant surprise after all.
        I’m somewhat sad that Rafa has to relinquish the place in the sun mere days after his RG triumph. But it was to be expected, and it’s only fitting that Fed starts his Wimby defense as No 1 – just as Rafa has done in Paris. Congrats to all Fed fans!

        • Rafa’s win at FO is much more important than no.1 ranking. It’s all good. Wimbledon and Us Open will decide the YE number 1. Fed can still finish first without defending Wimby and same for Rafa in case he doesn’t defend the USOpen.

          • No Eugene…fed cannot stay first post wimby without defending wimby…rafa is just defending 180 points n fed 2500 in Halle n wimby…or did you mean finish year end without defending ?

    • At the end of the week it will be 19 tournaments played for Fed, 14 for Rafa.

      If Zverev manages to get his act together for the next 2 majors (big IF!, especially after a rather dismal performance at RG) he could grab the year end #1.

      • I agree! Zverev is a contender if he finally manages to do well at the slams. He has become a stable item at the finals of all other tournaments.

      • I disagree, though, that Zverev’s performance at RG was dismal. He has never gone as far in a slam and he fought hard for his three five set wins. How can this be dismal?? He lost rather meekly to Thiem because his fuel tanks were empty.
        I wonder about the nature of his injury. Will that be healed in time for Wimby?

      • Ramara, if you’re getting those numbers off the ATP site, they’re badly misleading. IF we’re talking tournaments actually played, starting Halle last year, Fed has played 12 tournaments, Nadal 15:

        Fed: Halle, Wimby, Montreal, USO, Basel, Shanghai, WTF, AO, Rotterdam, IW, Miami, Stuttgart.

        Nadal: Wimby, Montreal, Cinci, USO, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, WTF, AO, Aculpulco, MC, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG.

        • I got the tournaments played off the ATP ranking site. I assumed they know how to count. Maybe I gave them too much credit?

          • Yes, I’ve made that mistake before myself. I think it has something to do with tournaments officially “entered” but you think they would correct for tournaments where a player never actually played in the opening round.

  8. Rafas number 1 177 weeks is kinda not very reflective of his year end no 1..4 times * 52 equal 208…

    Novak who is around 220 is kinda matching his year end number 1 ..

    But fed 5 year end number 1s are very less compared to his weeks at number 1..52 *5 260 Vs his 300 plus weeks at number 1

    It just means fed n rafa have held it a lot part seasons rather than whole unlike novak

    • Interesting observation, Sanju. It leads me to the conclusion that weeks as No 1 are far less important than the number of year-end No 1.But Rafa’s pattern is a bit strange nevertheless. It can be explained by the fact that he has never been the No 1 during two consecutive years. If I remember correctly he has never even held the No 1 position for 365 days in a row. His intermissions explain while he has less weeks as No 1 than Novak.

      • I think he has for 365 days but split across 2 seasons but just about scraped..take plus minus a week or couple ..I think 2010 June till 2011 July he was no 1…

      • I think the conclusion is that Federer fans are going to say that total weeks at #1 is more important, and Rafa fans are going to say that number of year-end #1s is more important. 🙂

  9. All French final Libema tomorrow.

    Chardy interviewed: he asked the fans to cheer for him and not Reeshard tomorrow. #cute

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