Shenzhen and Kuala Lumpur previews and predictions

Two weeks after finishing runner-up to Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open, Kei Nishikori will be back in action this week at the Malaysian Open. He is joined in a 28-man draw that also features Ernests Gulbis, Julien Benneteau, and a quartet of Aussies led by Nick Kyrgios. An even stronger field is on hand for a different 250-point event in Shenzhen. David Ferrer and Andy Murray headline it as the top two seeds, while Richard Gasquet, Tommy Robredo, Gilles Simon, and Vasek Pospisil are also looking to contend.

Shenzhen Open

Where: Shenzhen, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $590,230
Points: 250

Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: Inaugural event

Draw analysis: Aside from Ferrer, whose place at the top of the draw is a given as the No. 1 seed, the first quarter of the Shenzhen bracket may be the weakest of any tournament in recent memory. The non-seeds consist of four qualifiers (yes, all four qualifiers) and wild card Egor Gerasimov. The other seed is No. 8 Santiago Giraldo, who has not won a single match since Washington, D.C. early this summer. Giraldo is 0-6 in his last six matches and 3-15 in 18 sets during this current stretch of futility. Even the second section is soft, although it is likely to produce an intriguing quarterfinal rematch of a controversial U.S. Open five-setter between Robredo and Simone Bolelli.

By comparison, the bottom half is loaded. Murray should cruise through his opener against Somdev Devvarman or Xin Gao, but he could face Simon in the last eight. A deep third section is home to Gasquet, Pospisil, Juan Monaco, Gilles Muller, and Teymuraz Gabashvili. Pospisil will kick off his campaign against Gabahsvili, while Gasquet awaits either Muller or Marco Chiudinelli. Monaco is set for an all-Argentine clash with Federico Delbonis in the first round.

First-round upset alert: Maximo Gonzalez over (8) Andreas Seppi. Seppi really should not lose this one, but nothing has been a gimme for the 30-year-old Italian in 2014. His record stands at just 20-25 as he is coming off a hard-court swing that ended with a second-round loss to Kyrgios in New York. Gonzalez has spent almost the entire season on clay, but he at least managed to push Sam Querrey to five sets in the U.S. Open first round. Although the surface is advantageous to Seppi, an upset is not entirely out of the question.

Hot: Tommy Robredo, Simone Bolelli

Cold: Santiago Giraldo, Matthew Ebden, Juan Monaco, Ricardas Berankis

Semifinal predictions: Tommy Robredo over David Ferrer and Andy Murray over Vasek Pospisil

Final: Murray over Robredo

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Malaysian Open

Where: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: $910,520
Points: 250

Top seed: Kei Nishikori
Defending champion: Joao Sousa

Draw analysis: At 32 years old, Benneteau is still in search of his first career ATP title with a 0-9 record in finals. Nowhere has he endured more heartbreak than in Kuala Lumpur, where the Frenchmen reached consecutive finals in 2012 and 2013 only to suffer three-set defeats at the hands of Monaco and Joao Sousa, respectively. Benneteau could not have asked for a much better draw this time around. The other three seeds in the bottom half of the bracket are Gulbis, against whom Benneteau is 3-0, Cuevas—who is not a huge threat indoors—and Sousa, who may be fatigued after a long week in Metz and has the pressure of defending 250 points.

Part of the intrigue in a slightly more difficult top half rests with a trio of Australians near Nishikori. Kyrgios will go up against Marinko Matosevic in the first round, with the winner possibly to face Nishikori in the quarterfinals. Kuala Lumpur’s No. 1 seed will contest his opener against either Rajeev Ram or U.S. Open junior champion Omar Jasika of Australia. Following a bye, third-seeded Leonardo Mayer will likely begin his week against Jarkko Nieminen.

First-round upset alert: Benjamin Becker over (6) Joao Sousa. Sousa will be making a quick turnaround after finishing runner-up to David Goffin in Metz on Sunday. Portugal’s top player had previously been in two ATP finals and his ensuing tournaments did not go well. Sousa dropped his Moscow opener (l. Sergiy Stakhovsky) after capturing this Kuala Lumpur title and he got crushed by Lukas Rosol this summer in Hamburg a few days after playing in the Bastad final. As for Becker, he has not been in great form of late but he is dangerous on fast surfaces and he beat Sousa 6-3, 7-6(3) this summer on the grass courts of ‘s-Hertogenbosch.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, Leonardo Mayer, Joao Sousa, Nick Kyrgios, Omar Jasika

Cold: Go Soeda, Jurgen Melzer

Semifinal predictions: Julien Benneteau over Ernests Gulbis and Kei Nishikori over Leonardo Mayer

Final: Nishikori over Benneteau

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!