Metz final preview and pick: Sousa vs. Goffin

It will be an all-seeded final in Metz on Sunday, but not the one almost everyone expected–which would have been Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gael Monfils. Instead, Joao Sousa and David Goffin are squaring off for the title.

Joao Sousa and David Goffin, who just faced each other at the U.S. Open, will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Moselle Open on Sunday. Goffin rolled into the third round at Flushing Meadows with a 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 rout, doing his best to avenge a 6-3, 7-6(3) loss to Sousa in the final round of 2012 French Open qualifying.

It may be a somewhat surprising title match between the sixth-seeded Sousa and No. 8 Goffin, but it is not like the week has come out of nowhere for either man. Goffin, especially, has been positively on fire throughout the second half of this season. The 45th-ranked Belgian is 33-2 since Wimbledon, with three Challenger titles and his first career ATP winner’s trophy. Goffin booked his spot in the Metz final by taking out Florent Serra, Tobias Kamke, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Jan-Lennard Struff–losing just one set to Tsonga in the process.

Sousa is no stranger to success during the fall swing. This exact time last year is when the 25-year-old Portuguese player enjoyed his breakout on tour, reaching the St. Petersburg semifinals before capturing his first career ATP title in Kuala Lumpur. He is just 23-29 at the ATP level in 2014, but he will match his career-high ranking of No. 35 in the world even if he loses on Sunday (30th if he wins). So far this week Sousa has gotten past Ivan Dodig, Igor Sijsling, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and Gael Monfils.

This is not a good matchup for Sousa because the way to beat Goffin right now is to serve huge and overpower him, taking the match off his racket. However, baseline battles will be the story on Sunday and Goffin is going to have the edge over almost anyone in that department at the current moment. It will not help that Sousa has endured a tough week featuring third-set tiebreakers against both Sijsling and Mathieu.

Pick: Goffin in 2

[polldaddy poll=8320482]