Shanghai Rolex Masters preview and picks

Novak Djokovic is a fresh off a fifth title in Beijing, where he is 24-0 lifetime. The world No. 1 is not quite as dominant in Shanghai, but to say he is not too shabby at the event would be an understatement. Djokovic boasts a 16-2 lifetime record and is the two-time defending champion. He may, however, encounter some stiff competition from the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic.

Shanghai Rolex Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $4,195,895
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Of the top four players in the world, the two Swiss are likely the most content with their Shanghai draws. Federer, who is on a collision course with Djokovic for the semifinals, will open against either Leonardo Mayer or Chinese wild card Di Wu. The 33-year-old’s nearest seed is Roberto Bautista Agut, who is coming off a retirement in the Tokyo first round after squandering five match points against Gilles Simon. A red-hot Nishikori is in Federer’s section, but the Japanese sensation has played nine matches in the past two weeks (two titles) and dealt with some minor physical issues in Tokyo. If Nishikori is not 100 percent, the door could be open for Jack Sock to reach third round and perhaps Grigor Dimitrov to face Federer in the quarters.

The first section of the bracket, meanwhile, is likely to produce another Djokovic vs. Andy Murray showdown. Djokovic will kick off his campaign against Dominic Thiem and potential third-round opponent Kevin Anderson is another big hitter, but the world No. 1 is so good at this tournament an all throughout Asia that it is hard to see him losing prior to the quarters—if at any point this week. Possible early-round adversaries for Murray are Jerzy Janowicz and David Ferrer. Neither man is playing great tennis right now, although Janowicz managed to push Murray to three sets in last week’s Beijing opening round.

In his second tournament back following a three-month layoff due to wrist problems, Nadal is hoping to bounce back from a Beijing quarterfinal loss to Martin Klizan. The Spaniard’s draw is much more difficult than the statistics suggest. He is a combined 16-0 lifetime against the other three seeds in his section (5-0 vs. Raonic, 7-0 vs. Ernests Gulbis, and 4-0 vs. John Isner). All three, though, wield the type of powerful game that can trouble Nadal. Two of three (Gulbis and Isner) have played extremely competitive matches against the world No. 2 in the past and the other (Raonic) is in outstanding form right now. Of course, Nadal will take nothing for granted this time of year and he first has to get past either Feliciano Lopez or Thanasi Kokkinakis before running into bigger and better opponents.

The third section of the bracket is shaping up to be a three-horse race between Wawrinka, Berdych, and Cilic. Berdych, for whom Cilic has been a thorn in the side in 2014, may have to go up against the U.S. Open champion once more in round three this week. Neither player, however, can look that far ahead. Berdych awaits either Richard Gasquet or Jeremy Chardy in the Czech’s opener and Cilic has to withstand Ivo Karlovic’s serve in the first round. Wawrinka is in a seemingly easier part of this quarter, but you do not know what you are going to get from Simon and Fabio Fognini these days. Both veterans are capable of knocking out Wawrinka on a good day. Good days, though, have been few and far between of late.

First-round upset alert: Mikhail Youzhny over (12) Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis at least managed to reach the Kuala Lumpur semifinals two weeks ago, but he has been a shadow of his French Open semifinal self ever since Roland Garros. He also retired from a Beijing match against Klizan due to a shoulder injury, so nothing much is going well for Gulbis right now. The good news for the Latvian is that Youzhny has been ice cold throughout this entire season. That being said, the Russian has won two in a row in the head-to-head series dating back to the start of 2012.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, Andy Murray, Dominic Thiem, Martin Klizan, Pablo Cuevas, Steve Johnson

Cold: David Ferrer, Fabio Fognini, Jerzy Janowicz, Santiago Giraldo, Juan Monaco, Mikhail Youzhny

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Andy Murray, Roger Federer over Grigor Dimitrov, Marin Cilic over Stan Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic over Rafael Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer and Raonic over Cilic

Final: Djokovic over Raonic

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!