Both Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will be taking the court for the first time this week in Shanghai on Wednesday. Nadal is set for a second-round test against Viktor Troicki, while Murray is facing familiar foe Steve Johnson.
(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Viktor Troicki
Nadal and Troicki will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers when they meet in the second round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Wednesday. All five of their previous encounters have gone the way of Nadal, who has won four times on hard courts and is 12-1 in total sets at Troicki’s expense. Their most competitive contest came on the Asian swing six years ago, when the Spaniard survived 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(7) in the Tokyo semifinals. They have faced each other only once since then–Nadal triumphed 7-6(3), 6-3 to lift a winner’s trophy last summer on the grass courts of Stuttgart.
This year has been a tough one for the 14-time Grand Slam champion, who has not yet locked up a berth in the World Tour Finals. Following a fourth-round U.S. Open loss to Lucas Pouille, Nadal’s Asian swing began with a quarterfinal setback at the hands of Grigor Dimitrov in Beijing. Troicki advanced through his Shanghai opener on Monday with a 6-2, 6-4 defeat of qualifier Lukas Rosol. The 31st-ranked Serb has been extremely active already this fall, with a quarterfinal showing in St. Petersburg, a semifinal finish in Chengdu, and a first-round loss to Fabio Fognini in Beijing. Troicki may be in decent form, but not to the extent that he can be expected to reverse the course of such poor results against Nadal.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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Steve Johnson vs. (2) Andy Murray
Murray and Johnson will be squaring off for the third time in their careers on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at a perfect 2-0 in favor of Murray, who prevailed 6-2, 6-4 at this same event last fall (also in the second round) and 6-0, 4-6, 7-6(2) at this summer’s Rio Olympics. The second-ranked Scot went on to capture gold in Rio, highlighting a current stretch in which he has won four of six tournaments–Queen’s Club, Wimbledon, the Olympics, and Beijing. He hopes to continue the hot streak in Shanghai, where he is 17-3 lifetime with two titles and one runner-up finish.
Although Johnson’s 2016 record stands at a modest 29-24, he has undoubtedly been playing the best tennis of his career throughout the second half of the season. Among the 24th-ranked American’s results are a title in Nottingham, a fourth-round showing at Wimbledon, quarterfinal finishes in Newport, Rio, and Cincinnati, and a semifinal run in Washington, D.C. Johnson kicked off his Shanghai campaign on Monday by rolling over Martin Klizan 6-4, 6-3. Murray, of course, presents a much tougher test and this has to be considered one of the No. 2 seed’s favorite tournaments.
Pick: Murray in 2
[polldaddy poll=9547368]
Certainly agree, it pointless you have a Rafa in the WTF that is low on confidence, game plans that are not working and just so much more… not playing aggressive enough and the amount of tough points he faces on his serve is alarming. Even with Fed at his age, he could always rely on getting a few free points on his serve… I honestly think Nadal needs to employ a serving coach, getting taken to deuce so often or 40/30 will take its toll on you if your other game isnt there from the back of the court, both physically and mentally
Denzil,
We have had discussions about Rafa needing a serve coach in the past. I don’t see my reason not to do it. At this point, it can only help. Rafa is struggling too hard when he serves and not getting cheap points when he needs them.
His serve has been a liability for a while now.
Berdych, Kyrgios and Cilic all equally inept losing today keeping Rafa “safely” in the Race to London Top 8 despite his recent slide.
I think Rafa will make WTF no despite his continued struggles. He’s not having to do much to stay in the Top 8 race.
We are in a collective post Golden Era hangover.
Can a player who qualifies for WTF but doesnt want to play there, ie skipping it even when qualifies but not due to illness or injury?
If I am to understand your question, strictly speaking, no. Not without penalty.
Case in point was when Murray mused about skipping WTF last year to be ready for Davis Cup final. He would have had to claim an injury or be fined.
luckystar (AT 1:03 PM),
The ATP Rulebook, page 42:
¤¤ 1) If a player, qualified for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals as a direct acceptance or designated as the alternate, fails or refuses to participate in this event, except for bona fide injury or other reason which constitutes good cause, the player shall not be in good standing.
…
Failure to appear shall result in a penalty of five percent (5%) of total ATP prize money earned during the ATP circuit year. ¤¤
I already answered this here.
https://tenngrand.com/2016/10/11/shanghai-r2-previews-predictions-nadal-vs-troicki-murray-vs-johnson/comment-page-2/#comment-194873
Rafa can afford to pay that 5% penalty; hes not earning much prize money this year. Its just that he’ll look bad not attending when he qualifies and is fit to play.
He’s really not.
I hope Rafa can qualify to keep the streak of qualifying each year from 2005 onwards, but not to play there when he’s not playing well.
Just saw the highlights of the NK match and then read an article about what he said afterwards… thats just pathetic, if you manage to see that match, just basically threw the match away, walked to the chair on some points before the serve even landed
And Ricky picked him to beat Nole in the semis lol.
It will be a bigger failure of the ATP if Kyrgios is not fined for insufficient effort.
Couldn’t agree more. I never did understand why so many people insisted tennis needed ‘characters’ like him. He has always been an uncouth lout in my eyes in spite of the fact he has an abundance of natural talent.
Well I just hope that you don’t compare Kyrgios to McEnroe.
Don’t you? Or do you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Nyc9jzSDg
#Epic
Another gem LOL…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmJi_oc7t10
(BTW ed, I know you don’t compare them.) 🙂
#ApplesAndMorons
Ed,
I agree with you about NK and always have. I simply never understood why the sport needed someone with such a poor attitude. He should be fined for lack of effort if it was that bad.
Being very takented is all well and good. But acting like a boorish spoiled brat is not something the sport needs.
Yes, I hope he is fined for lack of effort – hope they have the guts to do it. When the umpire comments on his lack of professionalism during the match you know it is serious.
Carole Bouchard
@carole_bouchard
Interesting Rafa saying he was maybe scared to go fully on his FH after the wrist injury or that maybe there was still some limitations here
Rafa’s FH has no ‘bite’, cant kill anyone with that FH now. Troicki even out rally Rafa! Since when Troicki has turned into such a good baseliner?
Something is wrong with Rafa; I thought he had improved his BH and he did hit some good BHs earlier on prior to the Asian swing. His FH was also quite solid during USO even though not up to his normal level but come the Asian swing, everything had deteriorated! But.. how come he was winning 6-1 sets thrice at Beijing and was obviously hitting and playing well? Why then the sudden downturn?
We’ve talked about this.
It takes great effort for him to overcome his anxiety at times but it is not sustainable.
This is how anxiety works. It is Rafa’s biggest career challenge IMO and I don’t say that lightly.
Carole Bouchard @carole_bouchard 1h1 hour ago
Nadal hints he could shut down season. Needs time to think and talk about it. Wanna work for 2017. “I need to create pain again with my FH”.
I think Rafa may play for another season and if good results dont come his way, he may call it quit.
I doubt he’s going to change anything given how stubborn, or how timid he is when it comes to making changes. He’ll probably stick with the same way of playing, maybe hitting harder and running more, but refuses to move forward to the net as often as possible. He’s just not a confident person and prefers to stick with something he does week in week out all his career – be it with his game or his team or his coach.
Its ironical, that the mental aspect was being talked about so much in Rafa’s success and now its his mental collapses that caused his downfall.
Toni is coaching Christian Garin of Chile, I wonder will he apply the same training method, ie emphasizing on mental focus more than anything else.
You can’t fire your family.
#TooBad
Nicholas Kyrgios @NickKyrgios 1h1 hour ago
Not good enough today on many levels, I’m better than that. I can go on about excuses but there are none. Sorry #StillAWorkInProgress ????
#Whatevs
Ben Rothenberg @BenRothenberg 2h2 hours ago Jecheon-si, Republic of Korea
This week is first time without Federer or Nadal in top-4 since 2003. After Nadal’s Shanghai R2 loss today, neither will be top-5 next week.
#FedalRIP
I am eager to watch Rafael vs Fed beginning 2017 to revive past memory. It will be interesting. It might help to stop deterioration.
It can happen in round 3 or 4 of Australia open given the possibility ranking of both plummeting by then.
The lower their ranking goes, the lower the probability of them meeting.
(This assumes a random draw.)
This Shanghai tournament is such a disaster, so many seeded players falling away – Rafa, Berdych, Cilic, Kygrios. Also Dimi and Delpo.
The season is long and they’re at the tail end of the season, so many are simply exhausted. Those who played and went deep in back to back tournaments esp were susceptible to early losses – Dimi and Kygrios for examples. Thiem didnt even play, and Kei was injured and skipped it.
Not many could play well in back to back events not to mention winning them, making Rafa, Fed and Djoko so special.
Well, it all came to what I was saying the other day! Rafa’s game is so bad that playing WTF ( even though as I stated I’d expected him to qualify mainly because the other certain contenders are failing too) wouldn’t do him any good but would kill his fragile confidence even more – if that’s possible..,he needs quality time to prepare for the AO open, to implement some needed changes and to work on his “calmness” whatever that implies…
Ditto.
The problem is – will he work on his problem(s), or still in denial and just keeps practising and practising and ie playing the same way again and again?
exactly. this rhetoric about practice is central to his denial. he was practicing incredibly long hours before the ao and look what happened there. and that was off the back of a good showing at the wtf!
why is he always telling reporters now that he knows what he has to do as if he wants to show that he is in control of everything? that hasn’t exactly worked has it?
Natashao (AT 2:56 PM),
Dropping out of the top 8 (= not qualifying for the WTF) wouldn’t do Rafa any good. It means that he’ll face the top 4 players before QFs at the 2017 AO. (I don’t think he could be back into top 8 after the Brisbane tournament).
I repeat. The poster AT 3:51 PM is factually incorrect.
Drooping out of the top 8 DOES NOT mean Rafa would face a top 4 player BEFORE QFs.
#B1PrNews
nats,
Yes, your comments were pretty accurate. Rafa can’t even string together a few wins in a row at a tournament.
This has never been a great part of the tennis year for Rafa. He has had some good results, not many titles when he was playing well. But he hasn’t been able to generate much since he came back from the wrist injury.
You can’t be confident when you don’t have the wins and good results to back it up. Rafa
can’t seem to get himself together right now.
Things couldve been so different had he won against Delpo in the Olympics, or even against Kei there; and/or against Pouille at USO. All those matches were winnable ones.
I do think that had Rafa won those, he would have beaten Dimi and Troicki too. After all Rafa had it in him to play offensive tennis to beat Lorenzi and Mannarino.
Of course, if he didnt have that wrist injury earlier on this season, things would even look more positive esp during the clay season and he would have qualified for the WTF already.
Such terrible luck! He has injuries in practically every year since 2011, with 2015 being the exception.
He won’t work on his problems – he’ll just keep on practising and practising as Lucky Star suggests.
“I know what I have to do and I’m going to do it,” scowled Nadal, who has dropped to fifth in the world after a misfiring season.
“I’ve got two-and-a-half months until next season starts so I have got two-and-a-half months to put myself at the level I want to be.
“And I’m confident I’m going to do it.”
#WeGonnaSeeNo?
But the 30-year-old admits that calling an early end to his 2016 season is a possibility as he looks to prepare for next year.
Nadal said: ‘I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next couple of weeks. It something that I need to think about and let’s see.
‘I cannot say now what I am going to do during the next month. I’m not sure about my calendar. I’m not sure about the things that I need to do to try to be at 100 per cent ready for the next year.
‘I need to speak with my team. I need to speak with my uncle [Toni, also his coach] too and prepare myself for the calendar to try to do the things that I need to do and to work on things I need to work, because sometimes to keep competing is not the solution.
‘Sometimes the solution is practice and stop and have a process of training. Maybe that’s an opportunity to do it. I’m not sure about that.
‘I know what I have to do and I am going to do it. I have two months and a half until the next season starts, so I have two months and a half to put myself at the level that I need to be and I have the confidence that I am going to do it.
‘For me the season is almost over and I accept that. Just looking about what I need to do to be 100 per cent ready for the beginning of the next season.
‘That’s my motivation, that’s my goal. I am going to do all the things that I need to do to make that happen.’
‘I need to recover the forehand. Every time that I hit the forehand, I need to create pain to the opponent, something that is not happening today.
‘Maybe because I had an injury on the wrist, I am scared. Maybe because I still have some limitation in there.
‘I need to know what’s the best way to try to make that happen. If that happens, then for sure I need to recover a little bit the electricity on the legs.
‘I need to move faster to hit more forehands, but I need to be more confident with the forehand to make that happen. Everything is a cycle. I need to do the things together.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-3834447/Rafael-Nadal-fails-commit-ATP-World-Tour-Finals-loss-Viktor-Troicki-Shanghai.html#ixzz4MsxNtBQy
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TBH, if Rafa plaid WTF and lost most matches by 6:2 6:1 (which sadly can be quite possible) I don’t see him gaining any confidence for the beginning of the season. It will take time and tremendous effort to try to recover from that! Rafa has been losing to nobodies, I can just imagine what top inform players would do to him. He definitely should not go through such pain…
With game like this Rafa has nothing to do at the AO! We do not need to worry about top four in that case! He would most likely end up losing to likes of Pauille, Fritz or Sock…the young big hitters who have belief…
If Rafa implemented some much needed changes he would not need worrying about meeting any top player because none of them are in top form right now anyway and an in form Rafa who is mentally strong can beat them all…it’s about realizing what doesn’t work and fixing it, so that Rafa goes on the court to play to win, instead of just trying to avoid defeat which is his current tactics…
Other than Djoko and Murray and maybe Stan, most of the other top eight will be exhausted or injured come the WTF. Remember WTF 2014? Fed and Djoko annihilated the other top eight guys, beating them 6-1,6-0! Rafa may be beaten by the others not named Djoko (or Murray) but I doubt it would be 6-1,6-0 as they themselves would be struggling too.
I really don’t know what Rafa would do to fix his problems. He’s been saying he knows what to do but so far no improvement shown. Can he fix his problems in two and a half months?
By now, I truly believe that Rafa is in irreversible decline like Fed. Fed still could reach slam SFs or Fs because he still has his great weapon working for him i.e. his serve, even when his other weapons are not as sharp. Rafa doesn’t have such a luxury of winning cheap points the way Fed does so it’ll be very tough for Rafa as he gets older.
Agreed. I am not sure either if Rafa will be able to fix his issues, but I hope he and his team will try something different. Rafa is in decline, is lost his speed, his serve is liability and he does not seem to find solutions out there! His game is so predictable and on top of it he is completely lost his mental toughness. Those are the obvious issues that even we as spectators could see. Can he fix it? Can he improve his game? Is it too late for some substantial changes? Well, it could be.,,But he sure can find some experts to work with, especially when it comes to his mental toughness. Rafa distrusts his own game to the point that his opponents feel his discomfort and often capitalize on it…
Agree with the posters here, dissapointing and frustrating to see such a great champion fall such a long way, when at one time these players(no disrespect) were easy pickings for him, the old Rafa wouldve beaten anybody ….
I have to agree with Alison, although it pains me to do so. I also agree with natashao and hawkeye. Reality is tough sometimes, but it’s hard to ignore the problems Rafa is facing.
I am not sure if he can turn it around and find some answers, but I really hope he st least tries to do so. He needs help with his mental focus and confidence, his serve and forehand. I do not believe that more practice is the answer. Rafa needs to find ways to compensate for the loss of foot speed and the inevitable loss of reflexes and mental concentration that are all a part of the aging process. Rafa cannot afford to work so hard to win points. He cannot engage in grueling baseline rallies at this point in his career.
We saw what Fed did to try and stay competitive as he got older. It’s not just anxiety now. Rafa has to make adjustments as his skills inevitably deteriorate.
Rafa owes it to himself to give it a shot.
So Dimi lost to Pospisil, Troicki about to lose to Agut and Pouille about to be bageled by Murray. They are oh so beatable, yet Rafa couldn’t beat them!
It speaks volume about Rafa’s level of play..,this is what I meant when saying what would then likes of Murray, Novak or Nishi do to Rafa…sad indeed…