Shanghai R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Karlovic, Nishikori vs. Kyrgios

Karlovic practiceRafael Nadal and Nishikori may have tough openers on their hands on Wednesday in Shanghai. They are going up against Ivo Karlovic and Nick Kyrgios, respectively.

(8) Rafael Nadal vs. Ivo Karlovic

Nadal and Karlovic will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers and for the first time since 2011 when they meet again in round two of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Wednesday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, but he has never finished the job in straight sets. Twice the Spaniard has prevailed in a third-set tiebreaker; on the grass courts of Queen’s Club in 2008 and three years later in Indian Wells.

Karlovic is through to the last 32 thanks to a 6-4, 7-6(6) victory over Jeremy Chardy on Monday. The 36-year-old Croat is 34-21 on the season and registers at an impressive 21st in the world. Nadal is coming off a successful campaign in Beijing, where he reached the final before succumbing to Novak Djokovic. The No. 8 seed is 9-5 lifetime in Shanghai and a shocking 5-5 in his last 10 matches. Nothing suggests this will be an easy one for the Nadal, but he should once again survive the Karlovic serve in the end.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(6) Kei Nishikori vs. Nick Kyrgios

Nishikori is looking to bounce back from–by his standards–a premature exit in Tokyo, where the defending champion was upset by Benoit Paire in the semifinals. Japan’s top player is a stellar 51-12 for his 2015 campaign, but he has underwhelmed for the most part ever since hammering Nadal in the Montreal quarterfinals. Since reaching the Shanghai semis in 2011, Nishikori is 3-3 at the event and has not advanced past the third round.

Up first for the world No. 6 is a showdown with Kyrgios, whom he has never faced. The 20-year-old Australian punched his ticket to the second round by destroying Andreas Haider-Maurer 6-3, 6-2 on Monday. Thus continued a sudden turnaround in form, as Kyrgios slumped after Wimbledon but made it to the semifinals in Kuala Lumpur and the quarters in Tokyo. This is a good opportunity for one of the world No. 32’s biggest wins, and he may be able to capitalize if he serves like he did in round one–63 percent, 13 aces, and only one double-fault.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

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30 Comments on Shanghai R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Karlovic, Nishikori vs. Kyrgios

    • That is such a great picture of Rafa in the moment! He was feeling it!

      Good for you Rafa! It’s been a long, hard year. Let him celebrate and enjoy a great win.

  1. The point I am making is that despite the massive advantage in having a huge serve, which virtually guarantees that they hardly ever get broken, ace machines still do not rule the roost. My theory is, they serve great but return poorly, consequently, they have difficulty in breaking serve, so if their opponents can hold their nerve and take it to a TB the opponent often wins because whilst the ace machines can always get out of jail if they lose a point on their serve, they cannot do that in a TB because all their mistakes count which explains why they don’t win many TBs and as a result as many matches as might be expected.

  2. Now that I have watched the replay of the entire match, a few things stood out to me. In the first set Rafa was already down 2-0 and was behind 0-30 on his serve. So he was in danger of going down two breaks. But with some great serving he held serve. Then he did well to hold his serve until 4-5. That’s when he hit those unbelievable ROS winners. Three brilliant ones in a row! So he was even 5-5. Then he held serve and one more time managed to break Karlovic to take the first set.

    Rafa turned everything on its head in the first set. Usually we see Rafa lose his serve and then the set is gone. He was playing down a break for most of that set, but didn’t panic or lose his cool. Rafa took that set away from Karlovic.

    Also, Rafa held serve for the next two sets. Even when he lost that tb and the second set, He stayed strong. I see a big difference in Rafa’s body language now. He’s so much more focused. He doesn’t seem to be having those mental lapses.

    I do think it’s easier to watch a match like this after the fact. Watching the third set live today was nervous time. But Rafa seemed to be okay. There’s definitely a difference in him mentally and also in the quality of his tennis.

    I will never get tired of watching Rafa celebrate after that win.

  3. Ed, I really meant no offence.. it’s just that in the heat of the moment it seemed so out of place, that’s why I thought it was very funny. We all have our peachy favourite songs 😉

    • I’ve always regarded this song as an ode to why you should never give up hope no matter how bleak things might look.

      It seemed apt in the light of Rafa’s struggles to regain his competiiveness.

  4. (huh?, I thought I was replying to a recent previous contribution but it turns out that it wasn’t so recent… sorry about that..

  5. Dear Augusta,
    Not sure if you’ll read this but want to thank you about the videos (in Spanish) above.
    I think someone posted the translation.
    Rafa admits that those three consecutive returns were almost a miracle and says something interesting, if you know how to read between the lines, he says that for some months now he has been training very hard again.. this suggests that for some reason he wasn’t training so intensely previous to that, I wonder what happened. We know that it can’t be lack of commitment, knowing Rafa.. but anyway, luckily it’s in the past now 🙂

      • As for anxiety, Rafa talked about this a long time ago.

        ¤¤ MIAMI OPEN
        March 29, 2015
        RAFAEL NADAL: “…still playing with too much nerves for a lot of moments, in important moments, still playing with a little bit of anxious on that moments. … I have been able to be under control, control my emotions during, let’s say, 90%, 95% of my matches of my career, something that today is being tougher to be under self‑control.
        But I gonna fix it. I don’t know if in one week, in six months, or in one year, but I gonna do it.”

        RAFAEL NADAL: “… As I said before, feeling much more comfortable in my tennis, practicing well, much better than in Australia, much best than Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires. But still playing on competition, you know, feeling more tired than usual, feeling that I don’t have this self‑confidence that when I hit the ball I gonna hit the ball where I want to hit the ball, to go for the ball running and knowing that my position will be the right one.
        All these are small things that are difficult to explain. One of the tougher things have been fixed, that is the game, in my opinion. Now I need to fix again the nerves, the self‑control on court…¤¤
        http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=108015

    • Rafa said – a little bit of anxious. He also talked about feeling tired and not have self-confidence when hitting the ball. He said these are small things that are difficult to explain. It doesn’t sound like any severe anxiety disorder or even depression. He had difficulty controlling his emotions.

      Rafa seems to know what’s going on with himself. Whatever it was, it appears that he may be putting it behind him and I say – good for him! He’s clearly got his eye on 2016 and getting a good start. He can hit the reset button next year. But some good results in this part of the year will do wonders for his confidence.

  6. I’m gonna have to go with Stan in 3 in a match that could go either way. This is probably kinda biased cuz Stan is one of my favorites but I do think he is in better form than Rafa. If Rafa grinds it out though it won’t really surprise me too much. Either way hopefully it’s a good match. Allez Stan!!

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