Shanghai R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Karlovic, Nishikori vs. Kyrgios

October 13, 2015 Ricky Match previews 220

Karlovic practiceRafael Nadal and Nishikori may have tough openers on their hands on Wednesday in Shanghai. They are going up against Ivo Karlovic and Nick Kyrgios, respectively.

(8) Rafael Nadal vs. Ivo Karlovic

Nadal and Karlovic will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers and for the first time since 2011 when they meet again in round two of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Wednesday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, but he has never finished the job in straight sets. Twice the Spaniard has prevailed in a third-set tiebreaker; on the grass courts of Queen’s Club in 2008 and three years later in Indian Wells.

Karlovic is through to the last 32 thanks to a 6-4, 7-6(6) victory over Jeremy Chardy on Monday. The 36-year-old Croat is 34-21 on the season and registers at an impressive 21st in the world. Nadal is coming off a successful campaign in Beijing, where he reached the final before succumbing to Novak Djokovic. The No. 8 seed is 9-5 lifetime in Shanghai and a shocking 5-5 in his last 10 matches. Nothing suggests this will be an easy one for the Nadal, but he should once again survive the Karlovic serve in the end.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(6) Kei Nishikori vs. Nick Kyrgios

Nishikori is looking to bounce back from–by his standards–a premature exit in Tokyo, where the defending champion was upset by Benoit Paire in the semifinals. Japan’s top player is a stellar 51-12 for his 2015 campaign, but he has underwhelmed for the most part ever since hammering Nadal in the Montreal quarterfinals. Since reaching the Shanghai semis in 2011, Nishikori is 3-3 at the event and has not advanced past the third round.

Up first for the world No. 6 is a showdown with Kyrgios, whom he has never faced. The 20-year-old Australian punched his ticket to the second round by destroying Andreas Haider-Maurer 6-3, 6-2 on Monday. Thus continued a sudden turnaround in form, as Kyrgios slumped after Wimbledon but made it to the semifinals in Kuala Lumpur and the quarters in Tokyo. This is a good opportunity for one of the world No. 32’s biggest wins, and he may be able to capitalize if he serves like he did in round one–63 percent, 13 aces, and only one double-fault.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

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220 Comments on Shanghai R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Karlovic, Nishikori vs. Kyrgios

  4. I stated I’d put the link to the article on the Rafa thread (which is where it probably belonged) but just seen it was here. I couldn’t have told you which foot is deformed but jumped to the conclusion it was the right foot which he turned over on Sunday. Thanks for pointing out the error.

    Reply

    • Rafa’s feet are not “deformed”. According to his book, there’s a congenital defect in a small bone in his *left* foot which has made it vulnerable to physical stress. Apparently Rafa has it under control – I haven’t seen him call a trainer for his left foot in ages.

      Reply

      • My original comment was abbreviated to avoid a turgid medical explanation!

        I’ll rephrase: a congenital (i.e. not inherited) defect resulted in an incorrectly formed tarsal scaphoid……..etc. which was corrected by wearing modified shoes………etc, etc.

        What is more relevant is the modified shoes, while reducing the risk of severe stress in the tarsal scaphoid, caused greater strain to the back and knees.

        i.e.correcting one problem resulted in secondary problems. Anyone who has suffered a severe strain to any joint will be will be familiar with this cycle.

        #Semantics
        #Pedantry

        Reply

      • ed251137 (at 5:07 am),

        Correct!
        At the age of 19, Rafa started to wear an inner sole (designed by Nike and doctors) in his tennis-shoe to take the weight off the troublesome tarsal bone. But, this has caused problems with muscles and tendons at the knee as the weight in his leg is subtly shifted.

        Reply

  15. Kei beat Nick – 16 64 64. At the beginning of the game I didn’t think Kei would win a game but Nick couldn’t keep it up he started making mistakes once Kei won a few games.

    Reply

  16. The ATP now says even if Nick is fined for his code violation today by hitting the ball into the crowd he will not be banned. ???????????

    Reply

  17. I was aggravated by NK’s over familiarity with Lyhani who was who was leaning over backward to lenient with him. He is fully aware of his commercial value to tennis and is milking it for all its worth. He knows the threats are issued with a forked tongue.

    I’ve come to the conclusion all the umpires, tournament directors and TV commentators are under orders to talk Kyrgios up.

    #DoubleStandards

    Reply

  18. Kyrgios should already start the match with a code violation, just for good measure.
    Tomic really gave Ferrer a good pounding…

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  19. Shanghai is the most populated city in the world, yet the stands are empty, obviously, because people can’t have time of from work.

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    • Your right there are more people than for most of the matches. But it cannot be described as a full house by any stretch of the imagination.

      Reply

  25. it’s all about that bad call…Rafa is always stressed at the beginning and losing the first point made him more tense and he lost his service…damn blind umpire!!!

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  26. Rafa’s 1st bll was an ace (according to hawkeye) but it was called out so that threw him off the rest of the points in that 1st game. So stupid, Mohamed would have overruled the call.

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  43. Please repeat the end of the first set Rafa. I forgot to take my pills this morning. A tie break will do terrible things to my BP which is already too high 🙁

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  53. I just moved yesterday and the cable guy came to hook up the tv. So here I am freaking out because I want to watch Rafa. I missed the first two sets but watched the third set.

    This is beyond nerve wracking!

    Come on Rafa!

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  71. I am impressed with Rafa’s serving stats in this match. He really brought the goods. I think now we know that he mentally stronger, because you can’t beat Karlovic without keeping it together.

    This is going to give Rafa some really good feelings moving forward.

    I read online yesterday about Fed. That was a shocker!

    Reply

    • Yeah, I think his match vs Novak did help him to believe, and hes now finally having some confidence in his own game, and hes clutch now when serving for sets or match.

      Hes serving well and returning unbelievably well. He had so many passing winners! The only thing that i think he failed to do was to make changes quick enough during the match, when Karlovic had finally figured out how to handle Rafa’s passing shots in the third set. Had Rafa changed to lobbing Karlovic early in the third set instead of passing him at the net (after Karlovic handled Rafa’s passing shots pretty well) i feel Rafa should have the match wrapped up earlier instead of having to play a stressful third set TB.

      I was so worried for him during the third set and during the TB, thinking he might again lost another winnable match! So happy that he finally won a tight match and being clutch enough to do so!

      Reply

  72. huh, people, I just needed time to catch my breath…my heart is still beating like crazy…

    LOVE YOU RAFA!!!!

    VAMOOOOOOOSSSS!

    Reply

    • That match was just like the old days when Rafa repeatedly snatched the win in the dying moments of the match.

      Congratulations to Rafa and to all his fans who kept faith in him.

      Reply

    • ed,

      Thanks for that link. I did not see the first two matches. That was brilliant! Some insane ROS winners from Rafa! Unbelievable! When I finally got to watch the match and saw that Rafa won the first set 7-5, I wondered how on earth he broke Karlovic. Now I know!

      Again many thanks! 🙂

      Reply

  75. I admit it might be too soon for fireworks but it’s hard not to get excited with so many FH winners the way Rafa’s been this year. To me this is a clear indication that something has clicked in his head (also the fact of holding it together in the TB – Karlo is not one you want to be caught up with in a TB, no matter your name or shape you’re in).

    Reply

    • I agree, I am not going to break out the champagne just yet, but I do believe that this is a match Rafa would have lost a few months ago. That’s one important thing. You really need to keep it together and stay strong with all the pressure Karlovic puts on his opponent’s serve.

      I also understand Ricky’s point. But how surprising was it to see Karlovic double fault at the most crucial moment of the match. With all those aces and having that advantage of the big serve, in the end what let him down was his serve!

      Also, Rafa did hit some insane shots to get the break in the first set. So he deserves credit for that. It’s an accomplishment when you can break Karlovic.

      We do need something to celebrate finally.

      I am beyond proud of Rafa!

      I can’t wait to see the replay of the match so I can see the first two sets.

      Reply

    • Nadal in 2. He’ll carry the momentum from today against Raonic who is still not at the top of his game.

      Simon in 3. As long as he is injury free I believe he will outlast Berdych.

      Reply

    • it’s about having faith in the future ‘When the road has been too long’

      Dont take any notice of me, I’m being a sentimental old fool.

      Reply

  82. I think this match will be very important for Rafa’s mental strength and his confidence…how many times this year did Rafa end up losing the match that he was supposed to win? This is crucial for Rafa’s belief…Rafa usually fought himself in those matches and this is such a big step forward…

    Of course we can not claim our true Rafa is back! We will claim that when he beats one of the top 4…which he will soon…

    didn’t Karlovic beat Novak in Doha this year in the match where Novak won the first set? So please do not underestimate Rafa’s accomplishment…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  83. “I think I played a good match,” continued the Manacor native. “The only negative thing was the first game of the match. The real thing is he played so well the first set, the first game, too. He played well.
    “In terms of level of concentration and attitude and control of my emotions, it was a fantastic match. To win 7-6 in the third is a very important victory for me, especially because I believe in the last tie-break I did not lose a single point on my serve. That’s because I was in control again of my emotions. That’s the most important thing for me today.”

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/nadal-in-karlovic-battle

    Reply

  85. Rafa is feeling good about his performance in this match! As he should! The way he celebrated after the match was something else! Happy Rafa!

    There’s no question that Rafa has made real strides. It’s true that the big test will be when he faces a top player. But to beat him the way he did, to hold his nerve is a good sign!

    This win has to give Rafa some confidence as he goes up against Raonic. There seems to be a question mark about Raonic’s fitness. He hasn’t looked that great since he came back from the foot injury, but any big serving guy makes me nervous. That’s why I think this win will be such a boost for Rafa. He already beat the ultimate serve bot!

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  86. I am going back and forth about my prediction. Not having seen Raonic recently, I don’t know what kind of form he’s in. But people are saying he’s not in good form now. I usually make a conservative pick and go for 3 sets, but this time I will go with Rafa winning in 2 sets.

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  88. Congrats rafito and rafitofantos!

    Wonderful.

    And yes, it _is_ meaningful his forehands were clicking in a pressure match and at pressure moments.

    I’ll say it again. Given that rafito said he ain’t making changes to his team and not going to a sports therapist or the like… he is busy working out how to improve his game and fitness where needed and also how to deal with his ‘a’ (forbidden word perhaps 🙂 ) the best ways he and his team knows how. He just might pull off reducing the ‘a’ enough to have a much better 2016…. I’m eager to see. I’d still prefer him to seek a bit of treatment but that’s the way he’s chosen to go.

    We do know that he always identifies what needs work next and then works at that intelligently and with much dedication. And every year for many years he manages to surprise us by surpassing expectations. I don’t remember what he did in this vein in 2014 but there must have been some of these surprises even if smaller than usual. This late season is perhaps that for 2015. Let his 2016 defy common sense of the tennisrati again (rafito is too this or that, the younger guns now are too this way and that…).

    Reply

      • quote: I can’t produce one off the top of my head.

        Someone posted at least once an interview where Rafito said so, or something in that vein (e.g. perhaps didn’t exactly use those two words), here a couple of months ago…

        This is the item Rafito said in any interview in 2015 that most stuck in my noggin’.

        Reply

      • Rafa used the term “mental injury”, but he said: “…is LIKE (!)…injury, too…”

        Quotes from Rafa’s pre-tournament press conference on Tuesday (I posted them on Rafa’s page yesterday):
        ¤¤ “Sometimes I recover from injuries. This time what I had, with my not having the control of my nerves or my emotion, is like coming back from an injury, too,” he told reporters.
        “It’s not a physical injury, but it’s a mental injury. And this for me is another challenge.” ¤¤

        Reply

  90. Federer is something like 12:1 against Karlovic and Rafa is 5:0 now; I’m not sure he’s ever beaten Murray, yet everyone is so scared of him. Despite is 10k+ aces he’s never been in the top 10.

    Reply

    • He’s still very dangerous to anyone even in the top 4 … e.g. if they don’t keep it together for most of the match.

      I always try to imagine having those fast serves come at you from such a steep angle. The extra long arm swatting the ball above the extra high shoulders.

      Reply

      • chloro,

        I agree! It’s not about his ranking or not being the top ten or having lopsided negative H2H records against the top players. It’s the challenge that he presents being a human ace machine who can stand at the baseline and blast big serves all over the place. He puts tremendous pressure on his opponents to hold their serves. There is a lot of mental pressure while playing him. This match went down to the wire with a third set TB. Rafa did well not to lose a point on his serve. That’s what it takes. It was Karlovic who blinked when that famous serve let him down and he double faulted late in the third set. That gave Rafa the chance to serve it out. He took full advantage of Karlovic’s mistake.

        I could not imagine having to stand there and watch those serves blasting at you one after another.

        Reply

      • naldine:

        Yes and no.

        Since he often enough beats ‘better’ players due to his serves…. he would on average get less dee[ in draws if he didn’t have that serve, of course.

        But he’s not useless either at the rest of tennis outside the serves (and s&v’s). It shows in some of his matches.

        Reply

    • Nadal won in a 3rd set tiebreak and we shouldn’t have been worried about Karlovic.

      Really?

      It’s not strange at all that he rarely goes deep.

      He’s like a coin toss. Good chance to come up heads on each flip but much smaller chance to do so several times consecutively.

      Reply

  91. chloro, don’t get me wrong. In never want to see him anywhere near Rafa in any draw and I was nervous about the match, still for someone who instils so much dread, you’d expect him to go deep in a draw a few times. A

    Reply

  93. I absolutely agree! I always get nervous when he plays this guy. I remember Fed playing him sometime this year and it was a tight one. Fed was really happy when he won! That’s the way it is with Karlovic. You end up getting the win but it’s always tough.

    I don’t think the fact that Karlovic rarely goes deep is relevant. It’s the tough challenge that he presents even to the top players. They are good enough to get the win, but it’s a always tense and usually close.

    Reply

  94. I wanted to share a comment from Rafa that was posted on VB by forum member cliffsiders –

    “Carole Bouchard on Twitter:

    Nadal calls this return game at 4-5, “one of the best of my career. Almost a miracle”.

    Reply

    • That is such a great picture of Rafa in the moment! He was feeling it!

      Good for you Rafa! It’s been a long, hard year. Let him celebrate and enjoy a great win.

      Reply

  103. The point I am making is that despite the massive advantage in having a huge serve, which virtually guarantees that they hardly ever get broken, ace machines still do not rule the roost. My theory is, they serve great but return poorly, consequently, they have difficulty in breaking serve, so if their opponents can hold their nerve and take it to a TB the opponent often wins because whilst the ace machines can always get out of jail if they lose a point on their serve, they cannot do that in a TB because all their mistakes count which explains why they don’t win many TBs and as a result as many matches as might be expected.

    Reply

  105. Now that I have watched the replay of the entire match, a few things stood out to me. In the first set Rafa was already down 2-0 and was behind 0-30 on his serve. So he was in danger of going down two breaks. But with some great serving he held serve. Then he did well to hold his serve until 4-5. That’s when he hit those unbelievable ROS winners. Three brilliant ones in a row! So he was even 5-5. Then he held serve and one more time managed to break Karlovic to take the first set.

    Rafa turned everything on its head in the first set. Usually we see Rafa lose his serve and then the set is gone. He was playing down a break for most of that set, but didn’t panic or lose his cool. Rafa took that set away from Karlovic.

    Also, Rafa held serve for the next two sets. Even when he lost that tb and the second set, He stayed strong. I see a big difference in Rafa’s body language now. He’s so much more focused. He doesn’t seem to be having those mental lapses.

    I do think it’s easier to watch a match like this after the fact. Watching the third set live today was nervous time. But Rafa seemed to be okay. There’s definitely a difference in him mentally and also in the quality of his tennis.

    I will never get tired of watching Rafa celebrate after that win.

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  109. Ed, I really meant no offence.. it’s just that in the heat of the moment it seemed so out of place, that’s why I thought it was very funny. We all have our peachy favourite songs 😉

    Reply

    • I’ve always regarded this song as an ode to why you should never give up hope no matter how bleak things might look.

      It seemed apt in the light of Rafa’s struggles to regain his competiiveness.

      Reply

  110. (huh?, I thought I was replying to a recent previous contribution but it turns out that it wasn’t so recent… sorry about that..

    Reply

  111. Dear Augusta,
    Not sure if you’ll read this but want to thank you about the videos (in Spanish) above.
    I think someone posted the translation.
    Rafa admits that those three consecutive returns were almost a miracle and says something interesting, if you know how to read between the lines, he says that for some months now he has been training very hard again.. this suggests that for some reason he wasn’t training so intensely previous to that, I wonder what happened. We know that it can’t be lack of commitment, knowing Rafa.. but anyway, luckily it’s in the past now 🙂

    Reply

      • As for anxiety, Rafa talked about this a long time ago.

        ¤¤ MIAMI OPEN
        March 29, 2015
        RAFAEL NADAL: “…still playing with too much nerves for a lot of moments, in important moments, still playing with a little bit of anxious on that moments. … I have been able to be under control, control my emotions during, let’s say, 90%, 95% of my matches of my career, something that today is being tougher to be under self‑control.
        But I gonna fix it. I don’t know if in one week, in six months, or in one year, but I gonna do it.”
        …
        RAFAEL NADAL: “… As I said before, feeling much more comfortable in my tennis, practicing well, much better than in Australia, much best than Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires. But still playing on competition, you know, feeling more tired than usual, feeling that I don’t have this self‑confidence that when I hit the ball I gonna hit the ball where I want to hit the ball, to go for the ball running and knowing that my position will be the right one.
        All these are small things that are difficult to explain. One of the tougher things have been fixed, that is the game, in my opinion. Now I need to fix again the nerves, the self‑control on court…¤¤
        http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=108015

        Reply

    • Rafa said – a little bit of anxious. He also talked about feeling tired and not have self-confidence when hitting the ball. He said these are small things that are difficult to explain. It doesn’t sound like any severe anxiety disorder or even depression. He had difficulty controlling his emotions.

      Rafa seems to know what’s going on with himself. Whatever it was, it appears that he may be putting it behind him and I say – good for him! He’s clearly got his eye on 2016 and getting a good start. He can hit the reset button next year. But some good results in this part of the year will do wonders for his confidence.

      Reply

  113. I’m gonna have to go with Stan in 3 in a match that could go either way. This is probably kinda biased cuz Stan is one of my favorites but I do think he is in better form than Rafa. If Rafa grinds it out though it won’t really surprise me too much. Either way hopefully it’s a good match. Allez Stan!!

    Reply

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