Shanghai QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Anderson vs. Tsonga

Rafa 3Rafael Nadal will continue his Shanghai campaign on Friday against Stan Wawrinka. Kevin Anderson and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also hoping to snag a spot in the semifinals.

(8) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka and Nadal will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Friday. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 12-2, but the tide has begun to turn. Wawrinka captured his first of two Grand Slam titles at the 2014 Australian Open by upsetting a hobbled Spaniard 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. The Swiss won his second in a row at Nadal’s expense by getting the job done 7-6(7), 6-2 earlier this season in Rome. They have faced each other twice in Shanghai, with Nadal coming out on top 6-4, 6-4 in the 2010 second round and 7-6(10), 6-1 in the 2013 quarterfinals.

The world No. 7 has done well to back up a solid runner-up showing in Beijing, although his week almost never got off the ground. Nadal needed in a third-set tiebreaker to survive Ivo Karlovic 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(4) before taking out another huge server–Milos Raonic–via a 6-3, 7-6(3) decision on Thursday. Wawrinka got past Viktor Troicki 7-6(3), 6-3 and Marin Cilic 7-5, 6-7(7), 6-4 to reach the last eight. The fourth seed and recent Tokyo champion is 14-1 in his last 15 matches dating back to the start of the U.S. Open. But so much tennis may be catching up with Wawrinka, who dealt with a shoulder injury against Cilic and will not be helped by spending two hours and 54 minutes on court. This sets up nicely for Nadal to continue his upswing in both form and confidence.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(12) Kevin Anderson vs. (16) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Anderson appears to be playing inspired, statement-making tennis after breaking into the top 10 for the first time in his career on Monday. A run to the U.S. Open quarterfinals helped propel him to 10th in the world, although he has been consistent almost the whole season with a 42-20 record. The 6’8” South African has bounced back nicely from an opening-round loss in Tokyo to score straight-set victories in Shanghai over Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, and Kei Nishikori.

Up next for Anderson on Friday is a second-ever meeting with Tsonga. Their only previous encounter came last year on the clay courts of Rome, where the Frenchman prevailed 7-6(14), 7-6(5). An otherwise lackluster 2015 campaign saw Tsonga pick up momentum with a quarterfinal showing in New York followed by a title in Metz. The world No. 15 looked lifeless in his Beijing opener last week but he is back on track in Shanghai with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Victor Estrella Burgos, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Anderson has enjoyed a more routine week at the office and a confident, well-rested No. 12 seed should maintain his perfect record as a member of the top 10.

Pick: Anderson in 3

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33 Comments on Shanghai QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Anderson vs. Tsonga

  1. I do not want to take anything away from Rafa…he was playing well…But Wawa was not in this match…he looked like he couldn’t wait to leave the court… 🙂

    but, our Rafa is in the semis and he is earned it!!! Great job, Rafa! I am so proud of you!

    Vamos Rafa!!!

  2. His whole game was off. The commies were saying that he had a long, tough match against Cilic. Are they saying that’s the reason for his poor performance today?

    Rafa is in the semifinals!

    This is like a dream and I don’t want to wake up!

    Bring on Tsonga!

  3. Stan had 34 UE’s in a two set match. That says a lot.

    I don’t know what was up with Stan. It did seem that he wanted to get off the court as quickly as possible.

    • Yesterday the ATP news items carried the headline ‘Djokovic and Anderson CHARGE into the QFs’ but Rafa was billed as ‘Rafa ROLLS into the QFs.’

      I asked myself if the choice of adverbs was significant 😉

  4. Ah well, thank you Stan, you can go back to beating Fed and Nole 🙂
    I’m so happy. Well done to Rafa, the fact that Stan was shite today it’s probably connected with how sharp Rafa turned up for this match.

  5. Rafa’s body language is so different. He is turning into his old version of a cold-blooded tennis virtuoso…I think it was enough for the tennis world to enjoy the weak field without real Rafa…the situation is changing and it is happening NOW…

    Vamos Rafa!

  6. Benny G says:
    October 15, 2015 at 2:50 pm
    “I’m going with Stan in 3 in a toss up and Kevin in 3 in another close call. I’m liking the form of both right now so I’ll give them the edge though Stan is probably more likely to lose than Kevin to be honest considering his recent abundance of matches in Tokyo and here and having to play long match with Cilic plus shoulder bothering him. He usually brings his best against the big four though. And Rafa is struggling so if that happens Stan should win so I’ll take him in 3. As for Kevin his new top 10 status has really caused him to play even better it seems.”

    **************************************************************************
    A struggling Rafa takes Stan down 62 62.

    Vamos!

    • This clearly shows that Rafa is now moving up to the baseline and even inside to hit his shots. It’s a great indicator of how things have changed since IW earlier this year.

  7. In all fairness, I think Benny’s assessment wasn’t far off – he did mention that Stan would win in 3 IF Rafa struggled but it was the contrary today. If Rafa continues with this progression predictions will be going the other way very soon.

  8. Benny G says:
    October 15, 2015 at 2:50 pm
    “I’m going with Stan in 3 in a toss up and Kevin in 3 in another close call. I’m liking the form of both right now so I’ll give them the edge though Stan is probably more likely to lose than Kevin to be honest considering his recent abundance of matches in Tokyo and here and having to play long match with Cilic plus shoulder bothering him. He usually brings his best against the big four though. And Rafa is struggling so if that happens Stan should win so I’ll take him in 3. As for Kevin his new top 10 status has really caused him to play even better it seems.”

    **************************************************************************
    A struggling Rafa takes Stan down 62 61.. ( Sky has 62 62 on the screen).

    Vamos!

  9. C’mon, “going with Stan in 3 in a toss up” is hardly expecting Rafa to get schooled.
    Benny was wrong, as it happens roughly with 50 % of predictions, that it all.

    • I did not say Benny said Rafa would get schooled I said he thought Stan would win because Rafa was struggling but, INSTEAD, Stan got schooled. You are misinterpreting my words.

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