Shanghai QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will be facing each other for the 11th time in their careers and for the second time in two weeks when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Friday.

Nadal just recently improved to 9-1 lifetime in the head-to-head series when he got the best of Dimitrov 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 in last week’s Beijing semifinals. The Spaniard is 6-1 against the Bulgarian on hard courts and 3-0 overall this season. They also squared off at the Australian Open, where Nadal prevailed 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4.

Nadal ended up losing the final Down Under to Roger Federer, but he bounced back to capture Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros and the U.S. Open. The world No. 1 has parlayed his momentum from New York into further success on the Asian swing, currently riding a 14-match winning streak that also includes the Beijing winner’s trophy. Fatigue could have been a factor for Nadal in Shanghai, but he needed a grand total of only one hour and 57 minutes to dispose of Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini.

“I played a very good match,” the top seed said after beating Fognini. “I don’t know how many mistakes, how many unforced errors (I made), but (it was) very few. And I played very well in all aspects. I have been doing things very well. So…of course, big result, 6-3, 6-1 against a player like him…. Two good matches, for sure today is a very good result for me, and being in (the) quarterfinals of course is great news.”

It is great news for Dimitrov, too, because he is now almost certain to join Nadal at next month’s World Tour Finals. In fact, he will clinch a spot if he pulls off the upset on Friday. The ninth-ranked Bulgarian is 40-16 this year following defeats of two Americans in Shanghai. Dimitrov fought off three match points to outlast Ryan Harrison 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) in his opener before taking care of Sam Querrey 6-3, 7-6(3) on Thursday.

This would normally be a good opportunity for the underdog to score some revenge with Nadal coming off a long week in Beijing, but the favorite has looked better than Dimitrov–and everyone else–so far this week. And the lopsided 9-1 head-to-head history is hard to look past.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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27 Comments on Shanghai QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

  1. I feel Rafa is playing from too far back and Dimi knows it, Dimi is moving Rafa around and then hits his FH and BH DTL when Rafa isn’t/wasn’t expecting that.

    Rafa needs to up his aggression to finish this in straight sets.

  2. Rafa has to move into the court and not playing so far back; he’s allowing Dimi to hit his DTL shots at will!

    Come on Rafa, please move forward and attack!

  3. Rafa not expecting Dimi’s DTL shots at all! Come on Rafa, please move forward and force the issue, don’t just counterpunch!

  4. Rafa is just too defensive, preferring to counterpunch! Not going to work as Dimi is serving very well and hitting very well too!

    Vamos Rafa!

  5. Rafa could’ve wrapped this up in two sets but made those ‘stupid’ errors! Even if Rafa wins this, he really needs to up his level against big serving Cilic!

  6. Rafa’s aggressiveness kept decreasing in set 2 until he reached the level where Dimi was better.

    He needs to improve here in the 3rd.

  7. Ediot 0.0001,

    Stop being obsessive with me, please get a hobby.
    I want R. Nadal to win but Grigor is doing well, he is playing better than R. Harrison & F. Fognini.

    Ed251137 plzzz respect yourself, let’s disagree on predictions or other stuff’s, agree when we can, have a nice conversation but don’t take this path let’s enjoy tennis while we can cos the season will soon be over and after this year I might be gone cos some of u guy’s can’t handle the truth, jokes etc, but if you want me to stay don’t be shy guy’s you can let me know because I like u guys as well, I just don’t like some deceptive, bias etc reasonings.

    Eddy, just by looking at your profile picture I can tell that you are a handsome guy, please don’t act like an ediot.

    G. Dimitrov won a set, I told you guy’s, just read my 1st comment on page 1.
    I still want my Rafito to win, vamos Rafa!

    I want another Fedal.
    #4-0

    Ed, I apologize 4 the ediot OK, let’s have a friendly conversation ok, friends agree, disagree, agree, disagree, up & down, down & up, right & left, left & right but at the end they are sincere & honest(same thing right), faithful but more importantly they tell each other the truth, nothing but the truth even if it hurts, there are many examples but no time.

    Vamos Rafa, please win.

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