The race for the year-end No. 1 ranking is not over yet, and it will really be on if Andy Murray can triumph at this week’s Shanghai Rolex Masters. Murray has won four of his last six tournaments after lifting the trophy at the China Open. Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, has struggled both physically and mentally since the start of Wimbledon. The top-ranked Serb has not played since losing to Stan Wawrinka in the U.S. Open title match, but a return trip to Shanghai may be just what the doctor ordered. Djokovic is 24-3 lifetime at the tournament, 18-1 in his last 19 matches, and has won it three times.
Shanghai Rolex Masters
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $5,452,985
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: If Murray wants to continue his march toward the No. 1 ranking at the end of 2016, he will have to do it the hard way in Shanghai. Murray’s week will likely begin in the form of a date with Steve Johnson, against whom the Scot needed a third-set tiebreaker in order to prevail in the quarterfinals of the Rio Olympics. The bottom quarter of this bracket also features world No. 6 Gael Monfils, a red-hot Lucas Pouille, Tokyo runner-up David Goffin, and Olympic silver medalist Juan Martin Del Potro. Murray could face Pouille in the third round and either Monfils, Goffin, or Del Potro in the quarters.
Just about anything could happen in Djokovic’s section, and not merely because he is heading into Shanghai as a question mark. You never what you are going to get from his opening opponent, Fabio Fognini. Potential third-round adversaries Richard Gasquet, Grigor Dimitrov, and Ivo Karlovic all bring various forms of danger to the table. The nearest top-eight seed to Djokovic is Tomas Berdych, but a more likely quarterfinal opponent for the world No. 1 is Nick Kyrgios. The 21-year-old Australian just captured his third title of the season (and third of his career) in Tokyo.
Nadal and Djokovic are on the same side of the draw, but another chapter in that rivalry looks unlikely based on their respective states. Although the fifth-ranked Spaniard is no longer dealing with a wrist injury, he lost to Lucas Pouille in the fourth round of the U.S. Open and to Grigor Dimitrov in last week’s Beijing quarterfinals. Nadal could open against familiar foe Lukas Rosol, while Bernard Tomic is a possible third-round adversary. The other side of Nadal’s quarter appears to be up for grabs among the likes of Marin Cilic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Alexander Zverev, and John Isner.
The Stan Wawrinka-Milos Raonic section has to be considered the least intriguing. Neither player should have any real trouble reaching the quarterfinals—unless Raonic is still plagued by the ankle injury that forced him to pull out of a semifinal date with Dimitrov in Beijing. If that is the case for the Canadian, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, or Jack Sock could take advantage.
First-round upset alerts: Juan Martin Del Potro over (11) David Goffin. Goffin emerged from a recent slump by finishing runner-up this past week in Tokyo. But he may be fatigued and will now have to make a quick turnaround for Shanghai. Del Potro, on the other hand, is well-rested and coming off a runner-up performance at the Olympics, a quarterfinal run at the U.S. Open, and a huge five-set Davis Cup win over Murray.
Feliciano Lopez over (10) David Ferrer. Ferrer has won seven in a row at his fellow Spaniard’s expense to take a 10-6 lead in the head-to-head series. Four of their last seven meetings, however, have come on clay. They also haven’t faced each other on a hard court since Ferrer’s career really started taking a turn for the worse.
Grigor Dimitrov over (14) Richard Gasquet. Gasquet is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0, but he struggled with injuries throughout the summer. After finding brief success by reaching the Shenzhen final, the Frenchman lost in last week’s Beijing second round to Pablo Carreno Busta. A suddenly in-form Dimitrov maintained his recent momentum by finishing runner-up in Beijing.
Hot: Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios, Lucas Pouille, Grigor Dimitrov, Ivo Karlovic, Alexander Zverev, Pablo Carreno Busta, Juan Martin Del Potro, Mischa Zverev, Paolo Lorenzi, Kyle Edmund
Cold: Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Vasek Pospisil, Florian Mayer, Philipp Kohlschreiber, John Isner, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Gilles Simon, Benoit Paire, Martin Klizan
Quarterfinal predictions: Nick Kyrgios over Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev over Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka over Milos Raonic, and Juan Martin Del Potro over Andy Murray
Semifinals: Kyrgios over Zverev and Wawrinka over Del Potro
Final: Wawrinka over Kyrgios
[polldaddy poll=9544911]
who ya got?
Delpo
Del Potro would not be an upset. Look at the odds, he is almost laying 3/1.
only according to seed, obviously
I don’t know how you decide who’s hot and cold, but IMO it’s faulty, here are my thoughts:
Is Stan so hot now after losing to Zverev? Is Monfils still hot after losing to Kyrgios? Is Pouille still hot after losing to Dimitrov? Is Lorenzi still hot after losing to Schwartzman?
Is Pospisil still cold after his 2 qualy wins?
Tsonga is not cold, he’s just coming off a US Open QF.
Again, like I said last week, Simon is no longer cold, he beat Kohlschreiber last week and lost to an in form Monfils, no shame in that.
um, this isn’t based on one week
Stan won a GRAND SLAM a few weeks ago. Losing to one of the best players in the world doesn’t change that.
Zverev is not one of the best yet, you are kidding yourself if you think so and yeah, it was a bad loss for Stan.
Monfils has been one of the best players on tour the last few months
Lorenzi is playing the best tennis of his career
Ok, is he, or has he been just quite lucky, quite a few of his wins have been over out of form or weak players, Kitzbuhel was a really weak draw, Simon was really out of form at the USO, if he’s playing so well no way he loses to Schwartzman on a HC.
why? Lorenzi is awful on HCs traditionally.
No he’s not.
It sounds to me like you really don’t know the players well enough.
Then why do you have him as being hot with his decent results on hard if he’s so bad on it, why is it not a bad loss to lose to Schwarzman on hard if you think he is doing well, you don’t make sense.
Lorenzi is doing great wtf are you talking bout? He has multiple hard court wins over the last month which is way better than usual for him.
Pospisil is having one of the worst seasons in the history of anyone who has ever started a season in the top 50. He qualified twice? Who cares.
I see Kyrgios winning last week has quickly gone to your head, no way is he beating Nole, he’ll do well to even get that far, he’s not exactly the fittest player out there, so he should wear down quickly this week, won’t pass Berdy, could even have problems with Querrey.
Raonic is not in such good form, I don’t think he would have beaten Dimitrov and I think Ferrer could likely be too much, even GGL could give him a run.
Zverev has to go through some very tough players to even get to Rafa, Isner, Cilic, Tsonga, I don’t think he’ll make it there.
I do see Stan winning that quarter though and I too have Delpo over Murray.
You don’t need to be the “fittest player out there” if you have the serve he has. Plus he just recently got a fitness trainer for the first time in his career who came to Tokyo to witness his great run. Kyrgios can definitely take down Djoker. Let’s put it this way. I take Kyrgios from Tokyo over Djokovic from U.S. Open.
Well it’s good he has finally got a fitness trainer.
No he can’t beat Nole, that’s delusional, he has no wins over the very best players in their primes on their best surfaces, his game is not there, he barely beat Goffin only cause he served well, he’s a glorified servebot who tries to look cool, nothing more, nothing less, his game is not there to compete with the best.
Wrong. Kyrgios has amazing power and talent off of both wings. He’s a top 8 if not top 5 player in the world when he’s focused and on his game.
Yes you have to have a decent fitness level to compete at a high level week in and week out, esp. BTB weeks, even more esp. when you’ve played a full event the week before.
That’s your problem right there, you are basing hot and cold over a year’s results, when it’s really about current form, who cares what a player did last year, it’s what they are doing now that counts.
no, not a year
So what is it then if it’s not current form and not a year, because in your preview you tend to mention how the player has played for the whole year, and that’s what you base it on, you said so.
Anyhow, to go with what you said, well that certainly does not make Mischa Zverev hot then does it, only made 1 ATP QF all year, or are you basing it on current form, I think so.
If you go by year results Fritz is certainly one of the coldest players in the draw.
Sam’s been cold all summer too.
Other cold players you did not mention: Delbonis is stone cold, Pella is really cold, Robert is quite cold, Rosol, Gasquet’s pretty close.
you must have unreasonably high expectations for Delbonis, Pella, and Robert!
Are you saying they are no good on hard? Well if you are, Pella has been pretty cold all year, not just on hard. Delbonis yeah on hard not so good, but he’s been really bad even on hard, he’s still a top 50 player, so he’s supposed to hold his own a little bit on hard. Robert, well he’s playing the best tennis of his career, and yeah he can play on hard.
All these guys are at their best on clay. A hard court win for them is very big if they get it. Pella made the Rio final earlier this year. I wouldn’t say he’s been cold all season.
Well Robert has a third round at the aus open and a Hamburg SF so I guess he’s more of an all surface player.
I agree, but still Delbonis should not be losing to the likes of Novikov on hard.
Not surprising he lost to novikov at all.
Of course it is, if you know the players, Novikov is not near ATP level, Delbonis is, it’s a no brainer, Delbonis should win this match all day.
Robert will win.
I predict that all of Ricky’s predictions from quarters up will be incorrect.
They are ludicrous picks to say the least.
Muzza or Nole will win (if not Robert).
Delpo out.
Two down already five to go.
QF:
Kyrgios over Djoker
Cilic over Rafa
Stanimal over Sock
Del Po over Murray
SF:
Kyrgios over Cilic
Del Po over Stanimal
Final:
Kyrgios over Del Po
QF :Djokovic d Kyrgios,
Zverev d Nadal,
Murray d Delpo (tough match!)
Stan d Raonic
SF: Djokovic d Zverev,
Stan d Murray
F: Djokovic d Stan
SF
Djokovic over Tsonga
Murray over CryBaby
F
Djokovic over Murray
QF:
Novak over NK
Cilic over Rafa
Stanimal over Milos
Del Potro over Murray
SF:
Djokovic over Cilic
Wawrinka over Del Potro
Final:
Djokovic over Wawrinka
I agree to disagree with the debate about Hot and cold players. Some players play better on indoor hard courts and where they based compared to others, along with all the traveling they do. Some players cant do the B2B ATP500 and then ATP1000, hence I think the likes of NK will have to improve that with time, yes he has amazing weapons besides his serve, and will need to work on his fitness, concentration in and out of games etc. He has had one of the better years thus far in his young career, but so has Thiem (even though he is fading toward the end of the season and as Iv said in previous posts, he needs to select the tournaments he plays in a bit better, cant do 3 in a row sort of thing)
Monfils has had an amazing year and is probably the standout player for me this year, finally not just Gael the entertainer with potential, actually winning the matches he should win and getting into a position where he can win tournaments, rather than be remembered for a few great shots that makes the highlights reel
This debate is interesting and can go on for days and weeks, and thats the beauty of the sport… having a look at the match that just ended, Pospisal beating Dr Ivo, no one saw that coming but thats why sometimes it pays off to have a few matches in Qualies and then getting a guy you can beat when you just need a single break and also doesnt do the B2B tournaments all that well #JUSTSAYING
But I love the posts Ricky, look forward to reading them everyday in the morning or evening, depending on when they posted so please keep up the good work. Forums like this is good to get different peoples opinions and see who does favour who…
@Tennishead, I do agree with Benny when he says NK and Zverev. Will become future top 10 players, they are 19 and 20 years old respectively, yes they not a Nadal, Fed or Novak who won Grand slams at the time, but Stan Wawrinka will tell you that you only get better as a player with age and you really understand your game… that in my view of watching tennis players are between the ages of 26-31, maybe even 24
Good take Denzil particularly about NK a great talent but still raw and inconsistent for now.
Doing it over multiple weeks takes time.
That’s why I don’t have him going deep this week.
Nice post Denzil, thanks. Agree that A. Zverev, barring calamity, is a shoe in for top 10. I’d even say top 5 in a few years. NK is, to me, much more of a question mark. Certainly the raw talent is there, but not the drive, desire, commitment, whatever you want to call it. He may decide he’d rather play basketball or do competitive fishing for that matter.
Zverev is zvery impressive.
Zvou you? Or zvon’t you.
Top 10 or 5? More like 1.
Go Sascha! We love you……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZQNFTLCOWA
Ditto future No. 1.
#RealDeal
Denzil,
I just wanted to say that I really enjoyed your post! You obviously love this sport and are knowledgeable about the players.
I think NK is quite talented, but am concerned about his attitude and inconsistency and inability to focus at times. He is a loose cannon. I don’t know if he really wants to succeed in this sport.
Zverev looks promising. I usually adopt a wait and see attitude with these young players.
Thanks for your thoughts!
?
Well I thought Shanghai was indoors? Still it’s a pretty fast surface right? I think Nick can still do it in the form he’s in and the shakiness of Djokovic as of late. Lots of things have to go right for Nick to win it though.
Shanghai
QF: Nole over Nick, Rafa over Marin, Stan over Milos, Andy over Delpo.
SF: Nole over Rafa, Stan over Andy
F: Nole over Stan
Don’t at all feel like I got it right. Being optimistic about Nole.
Delpo is out first round, so almost all picks here are wrong! I think more unexpected losses will occur here.
Goffin over Delpo isn’t really an unexpected loss though. Slight upset at best.
That said, Ricky’s wild picks maybe a knee jerk response to some criticizing him always picking favourites. Having Delpo reaching semis was a bit of a stretch.
I had Delpo going to at least the SF, so no it was not a stretch considering how he’s playing coming in relatively fresh and the draw he had, could beat at least 1 top player.
My picks have been so wrong LMAO! Brackets are painted red in WTA and ATP 😀 And I put so much effort into them…
But I’m happy. Sascha won! Goffin won! Well, sorry for Delpo and Marin… But I can’t wait to see the match highlights!
https://tenngrand.com/2016/10/09/shanghai-masters-previews-predictions/#comment-191755
After two rounds, my prediction about Ricky’s bizarre tournament picks has been proven correct. None of his seven match predictions from quarters on can happen.
Three of eight of his QF players are already out.
My picks are all still in contention.
#HawkstradamusRising
Correction: After just ONE round LOL.
My mistake.
CryBaby over Milos could still happen. Milos seems to have gotten past his niggle from last week.
None of Ricky’s seven predicted matchups can happen with five of his quarterfinalists already out. The three remaining are the ones that are supposed to be there.
However, all four of my predicted semifinalists are still in contention.
Although his injury from last week didn’t carry over, I didn’t think Milos had the consistency recently required to reach the quarters here.
It’s not all about W-L on the year, h2h and a few recent results on sub-1000 tournaments.
Oh, and word to the wise, don’t tell anyone I told you but take the odds against Rafa and over the long run, you’ll come out ahead. Probably not for much longer though as his odds will eventually start dropping.
#HawkstradamusRising
Go Hawkstra!
I’m sucking in all brackets WTA. Nole is saving my ATP bracket. But Andy worries me. He looks unbeatable. Cant wait to see how the Simon test goes. Simon is suddenly on fire. But Andy owns Simon, I think = yeah. 14-2 Simon. Simon can’t do much but maybe make one set close. My guess.
Oops nevermind. Simon will play Sock. Different story.
Andy has Goffin 😀 oh…I think Andy’s got it, tho.
CryBaby out. Oh well. I’ll get over it. 🙂
Haha I actually got Sock in the QF. That’s like the only quarterfinalist I got right besides djoker and Murray and I thought that Jack getting there was one of my boldest picks if not the boldest to make the quarters. Happy at least one American is doing well here. Stevie had a rough draw and John just seems on the downfall at the moment. Also Sam made it like one and eight in his last nine matches. Ouch.
Fritz did qualify and win a round and his qualifying wins were maybe more impressive than his round one win over Robert. In qualies he beat seppi and millman in straights to get through. Difficult qualifying draw he was able to sneak through.
That was a tough qualifying draw.
Only two of Ricky’s projected quarter finalists remain.
The top two players in the world.
Lol I’ve only got three. #Sock