Shanghai Masters preview and predictions

Novak Djokovic will surge into the second to last Masters 1000 event of the season just like he does pretty much every year—fresh off a title in Beijing. Djokovic cruised past Rafael Nadal in the 500-point final on Sunday for his sixth Beijing triumph in as many tries. Now both players head to Shanghai along with Tokyo champion Stan Wawrinka. This week also features the return of Roger Federer, who has played only two Davis Cup matches since the U.S. Open.

Shanghai Rolex Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $4,783,320
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Federer appears to have a favorable draw on his hands as he returns to tournament action for the first time since losing the U.S. Open final to Djokovic. Well, it looks good at least until the semifinals—where he could face Nadal. The 34-year-old Swiss awaits either Sam Querrey or Albert Ramos-Vinolas and his nearest seed is a weary-looking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Potential quarterfinal opponents for Federer are Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson, and Nick Kyrgios.

Nadal is on a collision course with Federer in the bottom half of the bracket. Getting that far would be an impressive result, though, as the eighth-ranked Spaniard is coming off a long week in Beijing and dealt with an apparent right-foot problem against Djokovic. Nadal may be up against dangerous big hitters early and often this week. He will kick off his campaign against the Jeremy Chardy vs. Ivo Karlovic winner. Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic also find themselves in this section.

At the moment it seems like no one other than Federer or maybe Wawrinka can even remotely trouble Djokovic, so the top-seeded Serb should coast through a quarter that is also home to David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, and Richard Gasquet. Ferrer has a tough draw on his hands with Bernard Tomic right off the bat likely followed by Richard Gasquet or Vasek Pospisil. Djokovic will be untested until at least the last eight unless Dominic Thiem catches fire in round three.

The weakest portion of the draw is undoubtedly the one occupied by seeds Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon. Berdych vultured a recent 250-point title in Shenzhen but has otherwise slumped of late, while Simon got handled in routine fashion by Gilles Muller in the Tokyo quarterfinals. Jack Sock may be able to take advantage and potentially face Murray in the last eight. Murray will run into danger in the third round in the form of either John Isner or David Goffin.

First-round upset alerts: Gilles Muller over (11) Richard Gasquet. Muller is a decent 2-3 lifetime at the ATP level against Gasquet. The two veterans most recently faced each other this summer in Washington, D.C., where Gasquet survived 5-7, 6-4, 6-4. With both players in fine form (Muller is coming off a semifinal showing in Tokyo), an upset would not come as a huge shock.

(WC) Tommy Haas over (12) Kevin Anderson. There is a possibility that Anderson is content with his best-ever Grand Slam finish (a quarterfinal at the U.S. Open) and will stumble down the home stretch this fall. The South African did not play again until Tokyo, where he got destroyed by Muller in the first round. Haas has not taken the court since a five-set loss to Verdasco in New York and he has not won an ATP-level match since Wimbledon. For the oft-injured 37-year-old, however, some rest may have served him well.

Tommy Robredo over (16) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. No result could be considered a surprise, as both players are proverbial wild cards on the heels of disastrous results this past week in Beijing. Robredo won the opening set of his first-rounder against John Millman then got blown out 6-1, 6-0. Tsonga struggled physically in a straight-set loss to Andreas Haider-Maurer. Amazingly, this is just the second-ever encounter between the two veterans. They have not gone head-to-head since the 2008 U.S. Open, where Robredo won in straight sets.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Marin Cilic, Feliciano Lopez, David Goffin, Jeremy Chardy, Gilles Muller, Donald Young

Cold: Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, Adrian Mannarino, Tommy Haas, Victor Estrella Burgos

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Andy Murray over Jack Sock, Marin Cilic over Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer over Kei Nishikori

Semifinals: Djokovic over Murray and Federer over Cilic

Final: Djokovic over Federer

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