Shanghai Masters preview and picks

Don’t look now, but things are actually shaping up quite nicely for the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Of course, the tournament better not get ahead of itself because rarely has it been the beneficiary of good luck. At a time on the calendar when the tennis season is winding down, the event saw nine matches end in retirement in 2009. Last year’s installment endured withdrawals of Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, and Juan Martin Del Potro, among others.

Andy Murray is out this time around, but just about everyone else is on board. Moreover, tennis fandom generally wanes in October and November but in 2013 it feels like post-U.S. Open interest remains piqued. Nadal and Novak Djokovic will swap spots at the top of the rankings on Monday, with the Spaniard becoming world No. 1. Djokovic, though, just won the latest installment of their rivalry on Sunday in Beijing. As for Roger Federer, he is back in action for the first time since the U.S. Open and his World Tour Finals status is on tenuous ground. He needs a stellar showing in Shanghai to solidify his standing.

Shanghai Rolex Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $6,211,445
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: The draw ceremony was not kind to Federer, who could use some momentum at the end of the season after getting past the quarterfinals in just one of his last five tournaments. Not only did Federer land in Djokovic’s section, but also his early rounds appear far from friendly. The 32-year-old Swiss’ opener will likely come against Lleyton Hewitt and an in-form Richard Gasquet is a potential third-round opponent. Djokovic, meanwhile, may begin his week with an all-Serb showdown against Janko Tipsarevic.

Quarter number two in Shanghai is wide open. Ferrer is in the midst of a relative slump by his normally consistent standards and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has played only two tournaments since Wimbledon. Tsonga reached the final in Metz before a routine loss to Gilles Simon and he fell in the Tokyo second round to Ivan Dodig. Simon and Kei Nishikori, the other nearby seeds, come with question marks. This could be a big opportunity for either Dodig, Jurgen Melzer, or Florian Mayer.

No section is more up for grabs, however, than Del Potro’s. The Argentine, who triumphed in Tokyo on Sunday to pass Federer in the rankings, is the only player in the third pod with a particularly strong dose of momentum. Tomas Berdych has been playing well, but he retired against Nadal in the Beijing semis with a back injury. Will he even suit up for the second to last Masters event of the year? Fellow seeds Tommy Haas and Nicolas Almagro have cooled off somewhat, although Almagro advanced to the last four in Tokyo and lost to Del Potro in a tough match. Philipp Kohlschreiber is likely up first for Del Potro, while Feliciano Lopez could take advantage of Berdych’s troubles. Lopez is a two-time semifinalist in his four-year Shanghai career.

Nadal looked tired—understandably—against Djokovic on Sunday and he will have to get back in gear immediately to hold off challengers in the final section of the Shanghai bracket. Alexandr Dolgopolov showed signs of life by reaching the Tokyo quarters and extending Del Potro to three sets, and he has the talent to beat anyone on any given day. The Ukrainian will probably be Nadal’s opening test in round two. The always-dangerous John Isner has a great draw through two rounds and may get another shot at Nadal in the last 16. On the other side, World Tour Finals contenders Raonic and Stanislas Wawrinka are on a collision course for a blockbuster third-round matchup.

First-round upset alerts: Vasek Pospisil over (9) Richard Gasquet – If there was a two-month ranking system for heartbreaking losses, Pospisil would be No. 1 in the world. Four of the Canadian’s last five tournaments setbacks have come in final-set tiebreakers—including to Ferrer last week in Beijing. Still, he is playing some of the best tennis of his life and registers one spot off his career-high ranking at 40^th. Gasquet is also in peak form, but he has played a ton of tennis recently and he is coming off a semifinal showing in Beijing. Is another nail-biter in the cards for Pospisil?

Sam Querrey over (11) Tommy Haas – A 35-year-old with a laundry list of injury problems past is not supposed to be this good, but Haas is wrapping up an incredible 2013 campaign. The question is: will he fly past the finish line or limp through it? There is some recent cause for concern, as Haas lost to Mikhail Youzhny in the U.S. Open third round and to Hewitt in his Beijing opener. Querrey slumped throughout much of the summer but posted stellar Beijing wins over Youzhny and Wawrinka before succumbing to Djokovic.

Benoit Paire over (13) Gilles Simon – Paire is stumbling to the end of what has been a successful season for the most part. He lost his openers at the U.S. Open and in Metz before losing in the semifinals of a Challenger event in Orleans. Still, Simon may be ripe for an upset. The No. 13 seed won the Metz title and advanced to the Bangkok semis, but he withdrew from Beijing with an abdominal issue. If the move was for rest, Simon should win this one. If it was for a real injury, a player of Paire’s talent should be able to capitalize.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Stanislas Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Tommy Robredo, Fabio Fognini, Ivan Dodig

Cold: Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic, Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Feliciano Lopez over Tommy Haas, and Stanislas Wawrinka over Rafael Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic over Ferrer and Wawrinka over Lopez

Final: Djokovic over Wawrinka

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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