Shanghai Masters preview and picks

Don’t look now, but things are actually shaping up quite nicely for the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Of course, the tournament better not get ahead of itself because rarely has it been the beneficiary of good luck. At a time on the calendar when the tennis season is winding down, the event saw nine matches end in retirement in 2009. Last year’s installment endured withdrawals of Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, and Juan Martin Del Potro, among others.

Andy Murray is out this time around, but just about everyone else is on board. Moreover, tennis fandom generally wanes in October and November but in 2013 it feels like post-U.S. Open interest remains piqued. Nadal and Novak Djokovic will swap spots at the top of the rankings on Monday, with the Spaniard becoming world No. 1. Djokovic, though, just won the latest installment of their rivalry on Sunday in Beijing. As for Roger Federer, he is back in action for the first time since the U.S. Open and his World Tour Finals status is on tenuous ground. He needs a stellar showing in Shanghai to solidify his standing.

Shanghai Rolex Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $6,211,445
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: The draw ceremony was not kind to Federer, who could use some momentum at the end of the season after getting past the quarterfinals in just one of his last five tournaments. Not only did Federer land in Djokovic’s section, but also his early rounds appear far from friendly. The 32-year-old Swiss’ opener will likely come against Lleyton Hewitt and an in-form Richard Gasquet is a potential third-round opponent. Djokovic, meanwhile, may begin his week with an all-Serb showdown against Janko Tipsarevic.

Quarter number two in Shanghai is wide open. Ferrer is in the midst of a relative slump by his normally consistent standards and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has played only two tournaments since Wimbledon. Tsonga reached the final in Metz before a routine loss to Gilles Simon and he fell in the Tokyo second round to Ivan Dodig. Simon and Kei Nishikori, the other nearby seeds, come with question marks. This could be a big opportunity for either Dodig, Jurgen Melzer, or Florian Mayer.

No section is more up for grabs, however, than Del Potro’s. The Argentine, who triumphed in Tokyo on Sunday to pass Federer in the rankings, is the only player in the third pod with a particularly strong dose of momentum. Tomas Berdych has been playing well, but he retired against Nadal in the Beijing semis with a back injury. Will he even suit up for the second to last Masters event of the year? Fellow seeds Tommy Haas and Nicolas Almagro have cooled off somewhat, although Almagro advanced to the last four in Tokyo and lost to Del Potro in a tough match. Philipp Kohlschreiber is likely up first for Del Potro, while Feliciano Lopez could take advantage of Berdych’s troubles. Lopez is a two-time semifinalist in his four-year Shanghai career.

Nadal looked tired—understandably—against Djokovic on Sunday and he will have to get back in gear immediately to hold off challengers in the final section of the Shanghai bracket. Alexandr Dolgopolov showed signs of life by reaching the Tokyo quarters and extending Del Potro to three sets, and he has the talent to beat anyone on any given day. The Ukrainian will probably be Nadal’s opening test in round two. The always-dangerous John Isner has a great draw through two rounds and may get another shot at Nadal in the last 16. On the other side, World Tour Finals contenders Raonic and Stanislas Wawrinka are on a collision course for a blockbuster third-round matchup.

First-round upset alerts: Vasek Pospisil over (9) Richard Gasquet – If there was a two-month ranking system for heartbreaking losses, Pospisil would be No. 1 in the world. Four of the Canadian’s last five tournaments setbacks have come in final-set tiebreakers—including to Ferrer last week in Beijing. Still, he is playing some of the best tennis of his life and registers one spot off his career-high ranking at 40th. Gasquet is also in peak form, but he has played a ton of tennis recently and he is coming off a semifinal showing in Beijing. Is another nail-biter in the cards for Pospisil?

Sam Querrey over (11) Tommy Haas – A 35-year-old with a laundry list of injury problems past is not supposed to be this good, but Haas is wrapping up an incredible 2013 campaign. The question is: will he fly past the finish line or limp through it? There is some recent cause for concern, as Haas lost to Mikhail Youzhny in the U.S. Open third round and to Hewitt in his Beijing opener. Querrey slumped throughout much of the summer but posted stellar Beijing wins over Youzhny and Wawrinka before succumbing to Djokovic.

Benoit Paire over (13) Gilles Simon – Paire is stumbling to the end of what has been a successful season for the most part. He lost his openers at the U.S. Open and in Metz before losing in the semifinals of a Challenger event in Orleans. Still, Simon may be ripe for an upset. The No. 13 seed won the Metz title and advanced to the Bangkok semis, but he withdrew from Beijing with an abdominal issue. If the move was for rest, Simon should win this one. If it was for a real injury, a player of Paire’s talent should be able to capitalize.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Stanislas Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Tommy Robredo, Fabio Fognini, Ivan Dodig

Cold: Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic, Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Feliciano Lopez over Tommy Haas, and Stanislas Wawrinka over Rafael Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic over Ferrer and Wawrinka over Lopez

Final: Djokovic over Wawrinka

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

[polldaddy poll=7453110]

187 Comments on Shanghai Masters preview and picks

  1. Well, you’ve got Rafa losing to Wawa in the quarters Ricky, hence my comment. But I agree with you on Isner. For my money if Rafa survives Izzy, Rafa gets to the final. Izzy is more dangerous to Rafa than Wawa……………….

  2. @rick
    Whose putting out Fed then?
    @Sanju
    Agree there. Just watched JMDP defeat Raonic and he looked impressive. Raonic’s movement/anticipation on the ball looked poor though. Sorry Hawkeye!

    • I fully expected Delpo to beat Raonic today because his transition game is that much better. For some reason, Delpo has not troubled Rafa that much since his win at that USO where he won the Slam. Delpo gives Rafa some rhythm, Izzy does not, which is the problem playing him……………..

  3. Honestly I am not surprised at Ricky’s pick. I kind of expected it after how Rafa looked in the Beijing final. Rafa has been serving well and that concerns me. If he bumps up against Isner, the serve is crucial. His serve has been rock solid for most of this year.

    I don’t know what to expect at Shanghai. I would love for Rafa to prove Ricky wrong. That’s for sure! But I just don’t know right now. It is true that Wawa has never even taken a set off Rafa. As far as Delpo, he is playing very well now. These fast hard courts are ideal for his game.

    I do not agree that if Rafa gets by Isner, he gets to the final. We also don’t know that he will even play Isner. It’s the way Rafa is playing now that is my concern. Otherwise I would think he could get through this draw.

    • I guess, Ricky thinks, Rafa will go out against someone else, and then Wawa could go all the way. Rafa could certainly lose to Izzy or Milos, but Wawa will not make it to the final, IMO.

  4. Djoko over Wawa? Really??? I don’t think so. Well, the Djoker part of the prediction probably will come true, because his half is NOT loaded, and I don’t see anyone taking him out… not even Fed, who might be rusty. But Rafa’s half IS loaded with potential banana peels: Izzy, Milos, Delpo, to name just a few. But I really cannot see Wawa coming out of this tank. How fast is the court, btw?
    If Novak defends his title, and Rafa doesn’t make the semis, which is certainly a possible scenario, the race for No 1 could get tight after all. I wonder, how Rafa will proceed from there schedulewise. I believe, the year end No 1 is his main goal from now on; the WTF title would be nice, but is really a long shot. Remember: The losses kept piling up for Djoker at the end of his phenomenal 2011 season. Same could happen to Rafa from now on. If he manages to hang on to his ranking, I wouldn’t mind. But it could get tight, especially, since Novak can still earn DC points.

      • ‘Not even Fed’ means, that I think, he’s the only one in Novak’s half, who might be able to beat him, but that right now his chances for a win are slim.

    • littlefoot,

      It’s interesting that Ricky thinks Wawa will get his first ever win against Rafa. Wawa hasn’t looked that great in his recent matches. He is the one looking like the pressure is getting to him to pass Fed and also qualify for WTF.

      The key is whether Rafa plays Isner. If that happens, it will be tough if Rafa cannot improve his serving. It’s all about holding your serve when you play Isner.

      As far as the race getting tight if Djoker defends his title and Rafa doesn’t make the semis, I don’t know about that. Rafa is gaining points in every match he plays. Djoker can only defend and not gain. If Rafa does go further than the quarterfinals then I don’t see it getting that close.

    • Yep, it could get tight indeed, must have been Rafa’s (and his team) thinking when he planned his schedule as he did, gives him room to maneuver. Seemed a little OTT at the beginning, but he knew what he was doing! He wants that YE#1………….

      • Yes, the schedule is probably meant to achieve the year end No 1 ranking, and not necessarily the WTF title.
        NNY, it doesn’t matter, how many points Novak has to defend. All that matters, is the race. Rafa leads with less than 3000 points. If Djoker makes more that 4000 points, Rafa has to win some, otherwise the Djoker will leapfrog him.

    • No, I’m not worried either. Some losses are to be exspected at this time of the year. But the race ain’t over, yet.

      • The “setback” was Wimby. If Rafa had gained some reasonable ranking points there I am sure Rafa would have cut back on the Asia swing like Novak did in 2011. You can’t go deep as consistently as Rafa has done during the season and not feel the effects towards the end of it.

        Vamos!

  5. littlefoot,

    I didn’t realize you were talking about the race to London. I was talking about Rafa keeping the #1 ranking and not having any points to defend for the rest of the year. But if you are talking about the race to London, then that’s something else.

    • You are right NNY, Novak can’t regain No 1 right away, but at the end of the year, race and ranking become the same. Who’s leading the race at the end of the year, has the year end No 1 in the bag. That’s why Rafa always says, he only cares about the race, not the ranking, and that the ranking for him is only important for seeding purposes.
      As nice as his No1 position is for Rafa right now, you can bet, it will mean little to him, if he can’t hang on to it until the end of the year.
      Rafa is still in a very good position, but when Novak keeps winning and Rafa loses early in the upcoming tourneys, Novak can still make year end No 1. I’ve seen it happen with Safin and Kürten at the 2000 Year End Championship, when everybody had booked Safin as the year and No 1, and Kürten leap frogged him in the very last match of the year, winning the Year End Championship and the No 1 ranking at the same time to my great delight, because I was Kürten’s biggest fan back then, lol!

      • I made a calculation: if Djoko wins the maximum possible number of points, Rafa needs to earn 1530 points to be the year-end No.1.

        Race to be YE No.1:
        Djoko can earn points:
        ¤ Shanghai – 1000
        ¤ ATP500 somewhere – 500
        ¤ Paris – 1000
        ¤ WTF – 1500
        ¤ Davis Cup – max. 225
        TOTAL: 4225 points

        Rafa:
        ¤ leads by Oct.7 with 2700 points in the Race to London
        ¤ needs to add 1530 points – to be YE No.1.
        TOTAL: 4230 points

      • Augusta, thanks for the exact numbers! So, final DC matches count for this year. I’m asking, because they used to honour No 1 player in London. So, maybe, they have to forgo this, since it could be premature 😉 .
        I think, Novak will certainly try to win back No 1, but he’s not going to outright kill himself for it, since DC means a lot to him, and he needs something left in the tank.

      • Rafa only needs to add 1530 points, if Novak wins and plays everything possible from now on. Rafa will need in all probability less points.

  6. Wawa over Rafa???? Hahahaha, mad at Rafa for losing after picking him eh Ricky?
    (I’d have gone with Nole in Beijing given the circumstances.) Wawa hasn’t historically done well in Asia and hasn’t done much this year. He’ll continue to do poorly as long as he is within reaching distance of Fed lol.

    Besides, I think it’s more likely it will be Milos meeting Rafa in the 3rd round and on the faster surface, he could get his first win over Rafa but I doubt it.

    Delpo is Rafa’s biggest threat before the final and Ricky I guess thinks he won’t get past Haas. Hmmm.

    Likewise Izzy and Querrey will be non-factors outside the US, no? Querrey only beat Wawa because of the Fed-syndrome.

    Nole has a virtual bye to the final.

    I think it will be another Rafa Nole final the winner being the player who plays better on the day (as has been the case between these two for some time now).

    #VamosGOAT

      • Yes, it can only be either Wawa or Raonic. I don’t know about Wawa because he hasn’t looked that great lately. I don’t know that he will even get there for a possible meeting with Rafa. Raonic is coming off his runner up result in Japan. Playing well now.

        As I said, Isner had to get there to meet Rafa. My main concern is Rafa’s serving. He will need to do better at Shanghai. My initial thought looking at the draw was that Delpo would be Rafa’s biggest threat.

    • Lol, about Wawa having a bad case of Fed Syndrome! True, that…
      Agree with Novak having a virtual bye to the final. Rafa, though, definitely could fall to Izzy, Raonic (if Milos gets past Wawa, and I think he will) or Delpo. Hey, Fabulous Fabio had him on the ropes! We will see… I have no strong hunches right now.

  7. How can Novak regain No 1 at the end of the year? Rafa is leading the race by about 2500 points (have to look up the exact numbers at the ATP site). If Novak gains more than 2500 points from now on (Shanghai and WTF titles and a win or two in Paris OR DC would be enough) and Rafa wins no points from now on, Novak would be No 1 at the end of the year. Unlikely but possible. Of course, there are all kinds of possible in between scenarios. To what lenght would they go to secure the No 1 position? Would Rafa or Novak play Paris on short notice, should the race get real tight? What small tourneys can be counted in the end?
    Do the final DC matches count for this year or next year, btw?
    Anyway, Rafa is in a good position, but it’s not done, yet. And Novak said, he will certainly try to win the No 1 position back THIS year.

  8. Yes, Djoker is not conceding the #1 ranking. He knows that this part of the tennis year has been very good for him. I don’t see Rafa winning no points from here on out. He’s going to fight to keep the #1 ranking for year end. I just hope he has enough left in the tank to do it.

  9. I think from now on, all posters here should stop talking about defending points as it only confuses the issue.
    The year end ranking and the rolling 52 week ranking coincide at year end as all points from last year drop off and you are left with only this year’s points.
    Rafa is by no means comfortably placed. His current ranking points are ( on Monday) 11310 and Nole’s is 8610 i.e a difference of only 2700.
    If Nole wins Shanghai , Paris WTF, another ATP 500 and Davis Cup, he can gain 4225 points ie. Rafa needs to win 1525 additional points to be assured of year end no. 1.
    While Nole winning everything is difficult, it is not impossible as Fed seems(or at least seemed) out of sorts, Muzz is missing and Rafa looks tired. The only way Rafa can therefore ensure this year end no. 1 is to win 1525 additional points and this is no mean task for a tired Rafa.
    If he wins Shanghai, it would help but despite Ricky’s protestations, Rafa’s draw IS loaded and Nole has a CAKEWALK. Unless Fed discovers his form.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Rafa loses in first round. He looked VERY tired to me. But hopefully as in AO 2009, tired Rafa can win if he has set his heart on it.
    If Rafa crashes out early at Shanghai, he will play Paris. Otherwise he may skip it and focus on Basel and WTF.
    I am really nervous. Nole looks in awesome form and very determined to retain his year end crown. Anyway, if he does win everything from this point on, he will deserve it.

    • Agree with almost everything, you say. I’ve said since Us Open final, that the concept of having to defend points is moot at the final stretch of the season.
      But I’m not nervous for now. I don’t even think, Novak will play every possible tourney, since he needs some fuel left in the tank for Davis Cup. And it is highly unlikely, that he will win everything from now on. So, Rafa probably needs a lot less than 1530 points. And if Novak pulls a Guga stunt and leapfrogs Rafa, then he has earned it.

  10. As a matter of fact, theoretically Nole can add 4475 point by playing a 250 event on 10/14 and a 500 event on 10/21 in addition to Shanghai, Paris and WTF.

    • But it’s highly unlikely, that he would do such a thing, because that would jeopardize his chances at the WTF and DC. So, relax for now, Rafa has done very well by reaching Beijing finals. He’s not going to lose constantly from now on, nor is Nole the indestructible superman 🙂

  11. Nole’s not scheduled to play in either remaining 500 tournaments. He could get a wild card into one but that would mean playing four of five weeks not including the DC final following the WTF. I don’t see it happening, and if it did, I’m with you, he would pretty much deserve the No. 1 if he ran the table.

    I think 1000 points more will clinch it for Rafa. Likely another 500 pts will do.

  12. Yes, if Rafa wins Shanghai, then the picture dramatically alters. The chances of Nole leapfrogging Rafa becomes ZERO even if Nole wins all the remaining events he is scheduled to play ie. Paris, WTF and DC.
    Of course if Rafa does win Shanghai, Nole may take a wildcard into Valencia where he would be practically guaranteed to get 500 points but I am sure he won’t do it because even if he wins everything, Rafa just has to win more than 125 points in Paris, Basel and WTF combined to nose ahead of Nole.
    So the realistic picture is:
    Rafa wins one of Shanghai and Paris or is a finalist at WTF
    Plus doesn’t crash out in all the other first rounds
    OR equivalently
    wins more than 1050 points in Shanghai, Paris, Basel and WTF combined,
    he has the no. 1 in the bag.
    How I wish Rafa had got Nole’s draw at Shanghai. But if this is Rafa’s time, the draw will open up for him.
    Vamos Rafa!!!!!.

  13. Goig through all comments here, 1 thing I can confidently say is

    Rafans – too pessimistic about Rafa and too optimistic about his competitors. This includes me too and big time at that .

    I feel like laughing at myself and all of you too – Nole can win Shanghai, ATP 500, Paris, WTF, DC in addition to Beijing (that is 5 tourneys in a row) and Rafa is too tired to add even 1530 points. How less of confidence we have in Rafa right? I know we want the best for him but we have little faith 🙂

    I am sure Nole himself and no Nole fan either is expecting him to win 5 tourneys in a row whereas we Rafans have already factored that in our calcs. Rafans – always thinking of worst case scenario.

    Rafa has reached 13 finals this year with 10 titles yet he can now lose to Milos, Stan, Isner, Delpo everybody :-)..hehe

    Have faith guys. What is meant to happen will happen.

    And frankly how
    did anyone really expect Rafa to beat Novak in Beijing? I knew for sure he wouldn’t. Law of averages had to catch up and Rafa was playing crap all week.

  14. BTW Augusta you said right 150 points from Chile will add to Rafas total if he does not play Basel. So assume he does not, Rafa needs to win at bare minimum 1380 points, not 1530 to clinch YE No 1

  15. Sanju, the 150 points is already included in Rafa’s ranking total of 11310 as on 10/07/2013 ( Year to date or Race points). We now confine ourselves to year to date or race points and not confuse the issue with talking about the 52 week rolling ranking points.which is irrelevant when we are debating Rafa’s chances of being year end #1.
    All the ranking points of last year including zero pointers of last year will drop off by year end. As Rafa already has more than 6 events in 500/250 category, if Rafa gets more than 150 points at Basel, then Chile points will become non countable in YTD or race points. .But if he does not play Basel, Chile will CONTINUE to count.
    Rafa currently has 11310 points YTD ( it includes Chile points), Nole has 8610 YTD. Rafa’s current lead: 2700.
    Theoretically Nole can win all the remaining events i.e. Shanghai, Paris, one ATP 500 (say Valencia), WTF and Davis Cup=1000+1000+500+1500+225=4225.
    So Rafa needs more than 4225-2700=1525 (worst case scenario)
    If Nole wins all the events and Rafa gets 1525, they will tie . So Rafa needs more than 1525.

      • Sanju@:October 7, 2013 at 4:31 am

        Rafa’s ‘SIX best results’ in the RACE TO LONDON include:
        1) Monte Carlo Masters, 2013 – 600 points (a non-mandatory Masters tournament; it’s counted as one of four ATP-500 tournaments a player has to play)
        2) Acapulco ATP-500, 2013 – 500 points
        3) Barcelona ATP-500, 2013 – 500 points
        4) Beijing ATP-500, 2013 – 300 points
        5) Sao Paolo ATP-250, 2013 – 250 points
        6) Vina del Mar ATP-250, 2013 – 150 points

        (5 points he earned lately at the Davis Cup dropped off today)

      • Augusta – Which are Noles 6 best results till date? I am aware he played Dubai, MC , Beijing..not sure if he played any more? Why will his DC semi, final points get counted then if he plays 6 500/250/MC ?

    • Sanju@October 7, 2013 at 5:15 am
      Djoko’s ‘SIX best results’ in the RACE TO LONDON include (actually, he has only four):
      1) Monte Carlo Masters, 2013 – 1000 points
      2) Dubai ATP-500, 2013 – 500 points
      3) Beijing ATP-500, 2013 – 500 points
      4) Davis Cup, 2013 – 310 (R1, QF, SF)

  16. Ricky, have you taken leave of your senses? If Wawa beat Rafa that would be a Tsunami if you say Rafa is hot. Rafa is below par, I have to admit. He is mentally drained after playing so many matches but I still don’t think Wawa has got what it takes even against a tired Rafa.

    I thought Rafa would win Beijing but he didn’t so I’m not going to say he’ll win Shanghai, but I expect him to make the final. It would be interesting to see where Federer is after so many knocks and I would love to see him play Nole.

    • I somehow have a feeling Fed will take out Novak. He is fresh and hungry. He knows he has to go deep in Shanghai to qualify for WTF, just 180 points for a QF appearence wont do.

    • Add to that, Ricky says this, 6:22 pm, “Neither’s draw is loaded”. Rafa played badly through the whole Beijing tournament and still made the final. Why, wouldn’t he make the finals in Shanghai, especially as Rafa knows what’s at stake?

  17. Nole winning everything and Rafa losing everywhere in this last stretch is not a far fetched scenario as Nole did win almost everything last year, losing only Paris and Rafa generally does badly in this part of the season. I do believe Nole is sufficiently motivated to win at least 2 more titles.
    I am hoping for the best. If Rafa wins Shanghai that would be the best because not only does he get 1000 points, it means Nole hasn’t won it and it immediately reduces the points needed by 1400 even if Nole makes it to the finals.
    If Rafa makes only the semis of Shanghai, Paris, Basel and wins 1 RR at WTF, he gets 1100 ranking points and Nole could edge him. So Rafa has to win titles or make it to finals if getting #1 has to depend on him doing well and not on Nole doing badly.
    There is no room for complacency.

    • In your scenario, Novak would only edge Rafa, if he adds a 500 tourney to his schedule AND wins it, AND wins all RR matches on his way to the WTF title, AND wins all his DC matches, AND wins Shanghai AND Paris. Basically he can’t afford to lose even one match for the rest of the season. While not impossible, it’s a tall order.But Rafa getting only 1100 points in rest of season, is a cautious, but not unrealistic estimation. So, yes, it could get tight, but my money is still on Rafa. Remember, Djoker played more matches than Rafa since Wimbledon. If fatigue hampers Rafa, it should be a factor for Nole as well.

      • 1530 is worst case scenario and yes that is if Nole adds a 500 to his calendar. He may not I feel as if he does, he can lose in Paris or WTF and I am sure he is smart enough to realize it.

        There is no way he will win like 5 in a row..

      • Yes, 1530 points is definitely worst case scenario, and only necessary, if Novak adds a tourney to his schedule and doesn’t lose even one match for the rest of the year. I doubt, that anybody has ever done it. Novak is great, but he isn’t Superman, Batman, Spiderman and Ironman rolled into one person, especially not this season. That said, with Andy out of action, there are few players left to challenge him. It will be really interesting, how Fed will fare this week.

    • Holdserve..you remember you had posted Rafa is out of action this year when question rose about his knees. I think this was during Madrid.

      When asked, you said you were preparing yourself for the worst.

      Look what Rafa achieved after that – 2 slams & 4 Masters 🙂

  18. Yeah, I am going to take a leaf from Fed fans’ book and root for Fed against Nole so Rafa’s task of getting to #1 would be easier!
    Go Fed go!!!

  19. This, is what could derail Rafa at Shanghai, the weather, making the tourny an indoor HC:

    RT @colin_fleming: “We’re on the schedule today at 2pm local vs Lipsky/Gonzalez. Weather forecast is ominous so we may play indoors. pic.twitter.com/4hq221GJuQ”

  20. Sanju@October 7, 2013 at 3:34 am
    —And frankly how did anyone really expect Rafa to beat Novak in Beijing? —

    I always expect Rafa to win – no matter what!
    And I believe in telepathy – I believe that his fans’ faith in him helps him to win. 🙂

  21. RT @christophclarey: “Toni Nadal tells Radio Marca that Nadal’s schedule for rest of 2013 is Shanghai, Basel, Paris & WTF in London h/t @Rafael_Plaza #tennis”

    I think Team Nadal is sand-bagging, keeping Team Djokovic guessing. If Rafa wins Shanghai, I expect him to pull out of Paris.

    • rafaisthebest@October 7, 2013 at 4:58 am
      –I expect him to pull out of Paris–

      …and go to Disneyland Paris instead – to “conduct promotional activities”. 🙂

  22. Ok if telepathy works, let us expect Rafa to win. Also for Fed to be the other finalist. That would really put paid to Nole’s hopes!!!
    Here’s hoping for a Fedal final with Rafa biting the Shanghai trophy.
    Vamos Rafa!!! Go Fed Go. Fedal!!!!

    • Besides telepathy, there is social media. Rafa has often thanked his online supporters (Facebook, Twitter), saying that their support has given him the strength to continue to play tennis (especially during his 7-month layoff).

  23. Between Rafa and Djoko – 3 wins, 1 loss – will it be the pattern? Hope so 🙂

    MC 2012, Rome 2012, FO 2012 – Won (3) , Lost MC 2013
    FO 2013, Montreal 2013, USO 2013 – Won (3) , Lost Beijing 2013

  24. Rafa’s draw in Shanghai is a lot tougher than his draw at Beijing. So that’s one big difference. The other will be if weather forces the roof to be closed, making it an indoor hard court.

    I don’t know if Fed can take out Djoker. We will have to see how he looks in his first match. Instead of hoping that Fed takes out Djoker, we should focus on Rafa playing better tennis and controlling his own destiny.

    The one thing is that sometimes tough draws don’t always turn out that way. The players have to get there.

  25. I noticed looking at the draw that Delpo will meet Kohls in his first match. As I recall, Kohls has given Delpo some really tough matches in the past. So that one could be challenging. After that I don’t think anyone can stop him. Berdy is a question mark with the back. I don’t see Haas or Almagro being a problem. So if Delpo gets past Kohls, then he has an easy path to the quarters and maybe even the semis.

    I think it’s possible that Raonic could take out Wawrinka. That would really be something if Rafa has to play Isner and Raonic.

    I am not making any predictions for Rafa yet. I want to see how he looks. Right now on the tennis channel they have already started playing the first round matches. It’s on from 11:00 pm to 7:00 am my time. Then they repeat it during the day.

    So it looks like I will see live tennis this week!

  26. Goodness Tipsy’s having the most awful season 🙁 To think he got to WTF, on default sure but……. a couple of years ago.
    See Isner just lost the first set.

  27. With no Troicki to fall back on and Tipsy seriously out of form it will all rest on Djokovic if Serbia is to snatch back the Davis Cup from the Czechs. Hope Berdy’s back is better in time.

  28. And if he does win DC virtually single-handed there is the always the risk it might act as the catalyst for him to go on another winning spree,,,,,,,,,,,,,

  29. No one can win DC single- handed. Also doubt whether a DC win can impact Nole’s 2014.
    2014 would be determined by how he plays and how his top 3 rivals play.
    Dimitrov, Tomic or Raonic aren’t exciting in the least and I don’t think any of them will challenge for slams in 2014.

  30. RT @alex_willis: “Kind of crazy that Rafa has 5m followers but Roger’s still on 900,000..”

    Crazy only to Fedbots who think the tennis world revolves around Fed. No, it revolves around Rafa.

  31. Federer waxing eloquent on Rafito

    Federer paid tribute to his friend and rival Rafael Nadal, whom he trails 10-21 in their FedEx ATP Head2Head. The Spaniard rose to No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings on Monday.

    “I think [it’s] an unbelievable comeback, no doubt about it,” said the Swiss right-hander. “One year ago people were saying he might never play tennis again. One year later he’s world No. 1. That’s how quick things can go in tennis, which is great. On the other hand, you’ve got the other extreme sometimes, you write off a player a little bit too fast.”

    Federer said he was pleased for the left-handed Mallorcan. “I’m really happy that Rafa’s proven himself, for himself personally clearly, but also to the rest of the world that you never write off someone like him… The US Open was an unbelievable victory.”

  32. On himself Fed as usual positive

    “I think my game’s been coming back, which has been very important. Now it’s about staying positive and working hard every single day, that’s been the mindset.”

    “I’m really just focused on my own game, my first‑round opponent,” said the fifth seed, who will battle either Lleyton Hewitt or Andreas Seppi in his opening round. The Swiss is placed seventh in the Emirates ATP Race to London.

    “It was the goal at the beginning of the season to qualify for [London]. I consider it the absolute best of the best tournament out there, so I want to be part of that,” said Federer, who has won the year-end championships a record six times. “It’s extra motivation for me to play well and be part of that great tournament.”

    Without revealing details for 2014, Federer said his schedule for next season is somewhat complete.

    “I always knew that this year, after a very tough year in 2012 [and] the Olympics, was going to be a bit of a more quiet year. I expected myself probably not to be as successful and as busy playing matches and tournaments,” said the former World No. 1.

    “My mindset now is [that] next year is going to be a great year again where I’m not going to have that many points to defend, especially at some very key moments where I consider myself a favourite. For that reason, I’m really looking forward to 2014 already.”

    The father-of-two said he’s looking forward to his practice block at the end of the year, which will set him up for a strong season. “It has been a bit of a rocky patch the last couple of months but my expectations will always remain very high. That will never change,” said Federer.

    “As long as I’m physically and mentally fine, there’s no reason for me not to be taking part in the big matches. That’s what I’m looking forward to in 2014, to be part of those matches.”

  33. I hope Fed plays real good at Shanghai and takes out Nole!
    I think Rafa will do well at Shanghai. Best of luck Rafa!!!

  34. I haven’t yet seen how he looks but during the clay season he definitely looked fat.
    If he has been motivated enough to condition his body, there is no reason why he shouldn’t do well. If less talented guys like Robredo, Hewitt and Haas can do well, Fed can do better. Vamos Fed!!!

    • holdserve19@October 7, 2013 at 3:28 pm

      It shoud be “Allez Fed!” or something else in the languages of his two native countries (4 official languages in Switzerland and 11 – in South-Africa).

  35. I am not a pessimist or an optimist. I am a realist when it comes to tennis. I have watched this sport too long to be otherwise. I just call it as I see it and try to stay true to what I think.

    For whatever reason, Rafa’s serving has deteriorated. He didn’t play that well in Beijing. He seems to be mentally tired at least. I don’t know about physically tired. This has traditionally not been his best time in the tennis calendar year. That doesn’t mean that he can’t do well and get some good results. He has a real goal – to keep the #1 ranking for year end. That is what he wants. So I know that he will do his best to make it happen.

    The truth is that Rafa has an ugly draw in Shanghai. I remember Cheryl Murray clarifying the issue of fast courts versus how the balls bounced. She said that it’s not the speed of the surface that troubles Rafa, it’s how high the balls bounce. If the balls bounce high, then it’s good for Rafa’s topspin. If the balls bounce low, then it’s not good for Rafa’s game. We saw that in the Beijing final. I don’t know how the balls bounce in Shanghai. But Rafa does need the balls to kick up high for his shots to be effective.

    If Rafa doesn’t improve his serving, then meeting up with Isner could be a problem. Normally I wouldn’t worry much, but in a best two out of three match with a big server bombing aces all over the place, that is a concern. I can see Raonic taking out Wawa. If Rafa gets by Isner, then he should get by Raonic. I can see Rafa getting past the quarterfinals.

    It all depends on how Rafa plays and if he’s tired mentally or physically. I would like him to get a good result here because it would mean picking up more points. What he needs to finish the year at #1 is very doable.

    • Don’t know whether it’s true or not but earlier today one of the commentators (Koenig I think) said the courts were playing quite fast – about the same as Beijing. Today’s matches were all played with the roof closed so conditions will change without the roof.

      • ^^*I heard that too, ed251137, about the courts playing fast. Hope the weather forecast holds and it is back to sunny on Wednesday otherwise it would be a massive disadvantage for our Rafa. Yes, he has to start acclamatising to indoor HC for the WTF, but not just yet. Want him to go deep in Shanghai.

        Vamos!!

  36. Quarter final 1: kovic, Novak vs Federer —Quarter final 2: Tsonga Vs Ferrer David —Quarter final 3: Del Potro, Juan Martin Vs Berdych, Tomas — Quarter final 4: Nadal, Rafael vs Wawrinka, Stanislas — FYI Tommy Haas beat mr querrey…

  37. A second day of heavy rain and 97% humidity forecast tomorrow.
    Sunny weather for the rest of the week.
    That leaves an awful lot of matches to be played in three days.

  38. Ricky, you let the “Congrats Andy” logo run way AFTER the US Open, only changing it to “Congrats Rafa” on pain of a lynching by @nadline! Why have you REMOVED the “congrats Rafa” logo so soon, before we even smell AO 2014? Are you playing favourites?

    • events were not related.

      Congrats Rafa was up way too long. (I admit congrats Andy was up way too long, too, but I can’t make it a trend just because it happened once!!!).

      But i’m glad you notice stuff like that. Makes having a background worthwhile! 🙂

  39. Another limited day’s play:

    RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Play not before 3:30pm local time on the outer courts @SHRolexMasters. #atp”

  40. I think Tignor’s prediction makes more sense than Ricky’s, but at this point It’s all about seeing how Rafa looks in Shanghai. I can see Rafa getting to the semis. The trickiest match could be Isner.

    As far as a possible semifinal match between Rafa and Delpo, I don’t know that Delpo will beat Rafa. It’s interesting that whenever Delpo does well or wins a title, then everyone starts picking him to win or beat a top player. I remember all of the fanfare about him before the USO. Because he reached the semis at Wimbledon and pushed Djoker to the limit, he was considered the dark horse at the USO. Well we all know how that turned out.

    Delpo is very injury prone and has fitness issues. So we will see how he looks at Shanghai. Tignor did point out correctly that Kohls as Delpo’s first match is not going to be easy.

    I just hope the weather clears up so we can watch some tennis!

      • Ricky,

        Yes, Tignor did mention that. He also mentioned that Rafa has won only one title in Tokyo since 2005. That’s why I have said that this isn’t Rafa’s time of year. But I thought because he started late and did skip Miami and then got knocked out of Wimbledon in the first round that he would be fresher.

        I am not saying that your prediction is totally unreasonable. It could happen. I will have a better sense after I see him play his first match.

  41. Rafa is confident that he can play well.

    Rafa’s presser in Shanghai:
    —“I consider the Masters 1000s one of the toughest tournaments to play because if you are not playing well from the beginning, is very difficult to be through.”
    “I know in the past this part of the season was hard for me, but I am confident that I can keep playing well. I am doing the right things to be ready. Tomorrow I will start [against Alexandr Dolgopolov or Michael Russell]. I hope to be competitive and have my chance tomorrow. I’m going to go day to day as I did my whole career. I am going to try my best tomorrow.”—
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/10/08/rafael-nadals-presser-and-photos-in-shanghai/

    • Thanks @augusta08. Dolgo is one of those mercurial players who can give Rafa a fright on any given day, depending on how he (Dolgo) feels on the day. However, Rafa knows what he needs to do in this tournament, go deep. I am quietly confident.

    • More info from Rafa’s presser in Shanghai.
      Rafa has still pain in his left knee, but it’s not limiting his movements.

      —Nadal said that despite his remarkable comeback this year, which included winning a record eighth French Open title, he’s still dealing with pain in his left knee on a regular basis.
      “Since I came back, the feeling on the knee is not 100 percent perfect. But the feeling on the knee is very good for me because even if I have pain a lot of days, the pain is not limiting my movements,” he said. Nadal is now determined to keep up his momentum through the end of the season and the ATP World Tour Finals in London — a time of year he has traditionally struggled with fatigue and injuries. —
      http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/10/08/rafael-nadal-too-many-tournaments-are-played-on-hard-courts-done-with-tennis-politics/

  42. Okay then, Allez Vashy! That’s one potential banana-skin for Fed out of the way…….but then again, Fed may just skid against Vashy……….

    #JankoSigh

  43. Support you on your stance Rafa, staying clear of tennis politics and concentrating on your game:

    http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/9790738/rafael-nadal-says-done-tennis-politics

    “Rafael Nadal says his belief that too many tournaments are played on hard courts hasn’t changed with his success on the surface this year — he has simply given up trying to change the system.

    Nadal said Tuesday before the Shanghai Masters tournament that he still believes too many tournaments are played on the surface, but he’s done trying to influence ATP policymakers.

    “I am really out of politics, and I don’t want to be involved in (the) politics of … tennis anymore. I know even if you have strong ideas and even if you believe the changes are possible, I know there is always a wall there that is impossible to go over,” he said.”

  44. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Due to the rain, doubles matches have been cancelled for the day. All remaining singles matches have been moved indoors. #shanghai”

  45. Pleased to see my new young favourite holding his own against the vastly more experienced (but mentally fragile) Gasquet. Looking less and less likely Reeshard will make it to the O2.

    Have a feeling Popsi will not be able to handle Monfils.

  46. Tee hee….good old Crashquet….at it again.
    @RITB
    Am hoping that plasma treatment will one day be available on NHS! Not especially for me but so much better than surgery. Knee ops are very tricky…..like back ones…:(

    • ^^^You christened him “Crashquet” deucy……they do say people become their names as their personalities mature….!

    • ^^Those results were at the beginning of the season when Rafa would be fresh. I expect a tighter contest tomorrow with Rafa prevailing………

  47. The guy playing Raonic is wearing a Rafa shirt. He papered over the bull logo on his shirt sleeve with a little sponsor band or something, but he forgot about the bull logo at the back, bottom left! His name has ONE vowel in it………….

  48. Yeah Fed, get with the programme, follow the most followed tennis player on Twitter:

    RT @alex_willis: “Federer just followed Rafa. Who’s next?”

    Novak already follows Rafa. Rafa follows neither Fed nor Novak.

  49. RT @tennistweetscom: “UPDATE: @rogerfederer also just followed @DjokerNole @MariaSharapova @JohnIsner @delpotrojuan @andy_murray & @serenawilliams #chillax”

    How the mighty have “fallen”………….

  50. Dolgopolov, “Probably my best first serve % I have ever seen??? haha.. Looking forward for tomorrow’s match??”

    Hmmm……Dolgo intimidatory tactics?

  51. Hahaha, @auguasta08 3:05 pm! Not on a regular basis, no. I just googled, Rafa’s RG 2013 kit and that’s the first site that came up…………..

  52. @ritb, 1:26pm
    Fed followed them after his yesterday’s #AskFederer conversation on twitter where he promised the fans to do so. So he is just pleasing the fans.

  53. Cheers ed.
    Andy is an absolute darling, this should come as NO surprise “wub.” Think that winning his first slam in USA had a lot to do with it.

  54. http://tennis.si.com/2013/10/10/rod-laver-roger-federer/

    aver is the only man to win the Grand Slam twice, winning all four majors in 1962 and 1969. Back then, three of the four Slams were played on grass courts, whereas now the Australian Open and U.S. Open have moved to hard courts. Laver believes someone could join him eventually in the sport’s most exclusive club of champions.

    “I don’t own this title. It was something that I was thrilled to have been able to accomplish it. I think, yes, it could be done [again],” Laver said. “When I look at the way [Rafael] Nadal plays on grass, clay and hard courts, especially this year, he’s obviously one that can win it. The only reason why Federer didn’t win a Grand Slam was because of Nadal on clay.”

    So Laver also thinks rafa is the only one who can win the calendar slam ! ivanasevic said the same days ago

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