Semifinal match picks, including Nadal vs. Fognini and Tomic vs. Young

Rio de Janeiro

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Fabio Fognini: Fognini is 0-4 lifetime against Nadal and 1-9 in total sets. The Italian simply has no belief versus the top players; he is 0-14 combined at the hands of Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer, and 3-32 in total sets. Nadal in 2.

Andreas Haider-Maurer vs. (2) David Ferrer: Haider-Maurer has benefited from a favorable draw and an out-of-sorts Tommy Robredo. The luck ends vs. Ferrer, who completely destroyed the Austrian in two previous meetings. Ferrer in 2.

Delray Beach

Donald Young vs. Bernard Tomic: Young and Tomic just faced each other for the first time last week in Memphis, where Young won a quarterfinal match 7-6(8), 4-6, 7-5. Tomic’s quirky shots will be slightly more difficult to deal with outdoors in windy conditions, plus the Aussie is coming off an easy victory whereas Young had a three-set battle with Alexandr Dolgopolov. Tomic in 3.

(5) Adrian Mannarino vs. (4) Ivo Karlovic: Mannarino has fared relatively well against the big man’s serve in the past, but Karlovic has a history of success in Delray Beach and he has been absolutely outstanding this week. Karlovic in 3.

Marseille

(7) Gael Monfils vs. (4) Roberto Bautista Agut: Like Young and Tomic, these two also squared off last week. Monfils won 7-5, 7-6(5) to improve to 2-0 versus Bautista Agut, including 4-0 in total sets. Three of those sets, though, were competitive. Monfils in 3.

(5) Gilles Simon vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky: Stakhovsky, who upset Stan Wawrinka on Friday, is a force indoors. But Simon, who has a stellar return and loves using opponents’ pace, is a bad matchup for the Ukrainian anywhere. The Frenchman is 2-0 in the ATP-level H2H, 4-0 in sets, and 24-9 in games. Simon in 2.

58 Comments on Semifinal match picks, including Nadal vs. Fognini and Tomic vs. Young

  1. It wasn’t to be…………..

    The Fog showed character in the 2nd and 3rd sets, well done.

    I feel Rafa should have won in 2. He showed a poor attitude after those time violations in the 2nd. He knows he has a history with Carlos in this regard so why bother? Regardless of whether they were fair or not, he should have let it go, moved on to the next point as he usually does. He let them get to him, which is surprising. This is what upset me, not the loss.

    On to Argentina, Vamos!

    • That’s what’s upsetting @nats, he had the match in his pocket in the 2nd, he let the Fog back in. He allowed himself to get distracted by the time violations. In fact I would say Rafa threw the last game of the 2nd set, very un-Rafa like…………..

    • Yes, it’s hard to see Rafa lose like this to the likes of Fognini, the guy who needed I don’t remember how many match points to beat Delbonis.

      However, I think those who presume to write Rafa’s epitaph are making a huge mistake. It’s an unfortunate loss and we know the circumstances. But it’s never wise to write off a great champion.

      Fognini decided to play just enough decent tennis to get this win. I don’t remember Rafa double faulting so often and in crucial moments of a match. He wasn’t doing it in his previous matches.

      • true! he is far from being in the zone….the DFs were surprising. But this loss does have asterisks to it so I am not passing any verdicts on rafa’s European clay season prospects based on this.

        Fabio was dead tired too. Amazing effort from him and he did not choke . Rafa, just did not have it . He hits the reset button better than anyone else and he will get over this loss.

    • That’s getting way ahead of ourselves.. We are a ways off from the European clay. There are still hard court Masters tournaments in March.

      I also don’t think we should assume that RG is Novak’s for the taking. That’s reading way too much into this tournament.

      • I agree. Nadal has played like this since the comeback so it is not surprising. But it’s clear that Rafa is not nearly unbeatable on clay anymore. We are all getting older 🙂

    • If I am not mistaken, Novak has been licking his lips going into Garros every year since 2011, and losing . I for one hope the pattern continues………………

      • For me, it’s not so much that I do not like Djokovic winning, he can win all he wants, I just do not like him doing so at Rafa’s expense!

        Rafa is older so recovery takes longer. I fully expect him to be in the groove come Garros ’15………

  2. I think it was also about the long match that ended in the wee hours of the morning with not enough time for Rafa to recuperate. He’s still not match fit at this point. Fognini has been playing and isn’t coming back after a long layoff. His match was tough, but it also ended hours before Rafa’s match even started. So he has more time to recover.

  3. Sorry, regarding my post @12:55 am, I meant to say that Rafa’s match ENDED hours after Fognini’s match.

    vamosrafa,

    Yes, I think that was the key factor here. Rafa has been able to deal with quick turnarounds in the past. I think this was just too much for him. The thing is that he seemed to be in control of the match and on his way to a comfortable straight sets victory and then he double faulted away a break and just lost the second set. I think playing another three setter about twelve or thirteen hours after a three setter, was just too much to ask.

    I hope that Rafa was only cramping and not injured.

  4. Looks like a groin pull to me the way he was grabbing it. Not cramping. Doubt he will play next week.

    Obviously too quick of a turn around given the energy spent last night.

    He’s not getting the easy wins in the early rounds for over a year now which can catch up to him in later rounds. That’s what’s most troubling to me.
    Commies fellow Rafans.
    He’s Rafael Nadal. He will find solutions.

    VAMOS!!!

    • I don’t like his sometimes bad attitude on court but I like the Fog, he makes me laugh. He comes across to me as child-like, therefore harmless. He is not in your face like Djokovic’s triumphalism, nor does he set out to annoy the opposition like Petra’s ex-boyfriend.

      I am happy for him. Hopefully this win will translate to a more mature attitude on court……

      • Yep, that may come across as rubbing it in Rafa’s face but I give him a pass for the following reasons:

        1. He has just beaten the King of Clay and he does acknowledge this in his post-match presser. He gives Rafa due props.
        2. Apart from the Vamos, he is respectful, he is not OTT in his celebration;
        3. A lot of players, non-Spaniards, especially Italians, say Vamos. I don’t know if you recall a match between Sara Errani and somebody else. This somebody else celebrated a point win by saying Vamos and Errani was not best pleased because she felt the player was mimicking her (Errani) since this woman was not known to use the word Vamos often.

        Yep, I would not be amused if Kyrgios shouted Vamos! after beating Rafa………

        Early on in their careers, Djokovic played Rafa at RG and tattooed the word Vamos on his shoes. Rafa beat him, of course, and Rafa made it known he was not best pleased with that tattoo……

      • Fair enough ritb. That said, some fans do love the bad boys, no? 🙂 (sincere) I don’t count Kyrgios in that group. Not a fan of his either believe it or not even if he does have game. He is still a child (with raw potential that he may or may not bring to fruition).

        I am not a fan of Fog. Although I sometimes get a chuckle out of his mannerisms, he berates too many people ala Andy Roddick. Too disrespectful in general and he dissed Rafa with that tweet and I reacted (even though he game him credit in his presser).

        On another note, I do hope Rafa follows through and continues to send a message not to have Mourier umpire his matches in the future. He looks to influence the match with those excessive violations and does not handle these situations well the way someone like Layhani does.

      • It’s Carlos Bernardes, @hawkeye63, not Cedric Mourier who gave Rafa grief with those unreasonable TV’s. I say unreasonable because the Umpires are supposed to exercise discretion (the atrocious weather, hello?) but where Rafa is concerned, they seem intent on applying the rule to the letter.

        Having said that:
        1. Rafa was taking long between points (understandably) and I was not surprised when Carlos issued him with the 1st TV. I thought the 2nd was callous, he could have had a chat with Rafa at changeovers, especially considering the conditions.
        2. I thought Rafa could have handled Carlos’s trolling better. This was not the first time Rafa had a run-in with Carlos. Secondly, Rafa has ALAWAYS turned his anger into lethal performance on court, this time he let the anger eat into his performance, very uncharacteristic. Instead, it was the Fog who turned an altercation with authority into a positive for his game? Unbelievable!

        Rafa has looked raggedy mentally since he came back from his long lay-off. I think his team need to attend to this, pronto. I don’t mind the losses, these happen. I don’t like the way he is losing out there, looking overly anxious. I want to see his “colm” back, even in losing……………

      • Yes, Bernardes that’s right. Mourier’s the dude with the goatee.

        Yes Rafa could have handled it better but it shouldn’t have come to that to begin with. A better umpire would consider this and show discretion and even then one can argue that the umpires are just enforcing what the ATP has told them. Techincally speaking, they are not supposed to show discretion according to the stupid rule which is only being enforced in recent years because of Federer’s whining and trying to deny Rafa.

        Rafa was spent. Combination of first tournament since AO, lack of play over many months, excessive heat and second match on one day.

        I think he is focussed on the slams which is where he should be. All great players, Federer included (2008, 2013), Murray (2014) go though extended droughts and everyone assumes they are done.

        Rafa will bounce back.

        #PatienceIsKey

      • I also think the Slams are where Rafa’s focus is at and I support that. He has nothing else to prove elsewhere. With that in mind, he should not peak too early for Garros, he should pace himself.

        He is on track.

  5. I wanted to post this from VB courtesy of forum member piliii. These are some of Rafa’s comments from his presser. It’s always best to hear from the man himself.

    “Some statements from his presser. Sorry for consecutive posts. All from Twitter.”

    Quote:
    Nadal: “I played a good first set. A combination of good and Bad moments. I’m getting tired faster”

    (What could it be for?, Does he need to work more on his stamina?)
    He also said he had cramps like never before.

    (Maybe due to conditions?)
    He said he could have won the match. That Fognini played better.
    That he got tired too early.

    (Maybe because of the ridiculous schedule. He did not look tired to me yesterday)

  6. Sorry, I just want to clarify in my post @ 1:58 am that the comments in parentheses are forum member piliii’s own words and thoughts.

    • Getting tired faster and cramping soon and losing to likes of Fabio that too on clay – helps me wonder if its really signs to worry now

      He is really really low on confidence now

      • sanju,

        I am not going to worry too much at the moment. I want to just wait and see how Rafa does in Buenos Aires.

        Fognini had so many match points and couldn’t close it out against Delbonis. So it was said here that he was a disgrace. But now he beats Rafa and it’s okay, good for him. I don’t get it. Some of us get criticized for being supposedly two-faced or hypocritical in our comments. I don’t like this guy, never have, never will. He has been accused of tanking matches in the past. His attitude on court can be reprehensible. All Fognini did was beat a Rafa who was nowhere near his best and essentially beat himself. Also a tired Rafa who was cramping at the end. I don’t think that is a stellar accomplishment.

        I don’t like Rafa to lose to Novak. But I also don’t like to see him lose to a guy who has displayed unsportsmanlike behavior all too often on the court. Just keeping it real for me.

    • I don’t think anyone on this forum thought Rafa would lose today and the unthinkable happened . The 6 0 6 2 first2 sets score loss to berdych was unthinkable too

  7. Rafa shouldn’t be surprised that he got tired he couldn’t have gone to bed before 5 am after the QF. I think it’s far more important to make sure that all players have a minimum amount of rest time between points than enforcing the time limit between points.

    Who does the ATP represent, anyway. It’s supposed to be the Association of Tennis Professionals, but they don’t seem to have the players’ interest as their first priority. How on earth could they schedule 4 matches starting at 5.30 pm when they know that the average best of 3 set match takes 2 hours?

    The good news is that he is not injured. I am sure he will be alright for the rest of the season. To me his game is OK. it’s just other things like fitness and the ATP dis-organization that are the problem.

    • Completely agree…ATP more seems like a fascist organization with a mission to force players to suffer…this whole scheduling was beyond comprehension…

      • Fascist organization? Isn’t that a bit harsh? I don’t think the ATP is personally out to make Rafa suffer. It was bad scheduling and it happens at times. Unfortunate, but not an evil conspiracy.

      • The ATP has splintered interests between owners and players (with owners in control).

        Players need a players union to look out for the players for many reasons. I’ve said it for years.

        It’s their own fault for not forming one.

    • I think the atrocious weather conditions, terrible scheduling, this being early in Rafa’s road to match fitness and he is not getting younger, folks, all combined towards yesterday’s results.

      I think his game is not yet in the range it needs to be to win tournaments and this is making Rafa anxious. I hope Uncle Toni and team work to lessen his anxiety. I think he is well on target to peak at Garros.

      Getting tired early in the match is something the team can work on. I am not surprised he was cramping considering he lost a lot of fluid during the course of the rounds he played and his fitness is not yet 100%. The important thing is that he is not injured.

      Vamos Rafa!

  8. I can’t help drawing parallels between Serena and Rafa , both are 3 short of a major target , Serena 3 short of Steffi and Rafa 3 short of Roger

    Let’s see who gets there first and if they do

    On paper Serena looks to be poised to get there first but then strange things happen in tennis

    • And guess what Steffi and Roger have similar playing styles and game – strong placement of serve , strong forehand , sliced 1 hander backhand and good movement

  9. ¤¤ RAFA: “I’M ON THE RIGHT PATH”
    by ATP Staff | 21.02.2015

    [Rafa:] “I had no problem with my groin. I was just cramping in many places, which is strange because I’ve barely gotten cramps throughout my career.”
    But the 28-year-old Spaniard is keeping a positive outlook.
    “I have to accept the situation and work to get ready for what’s next. I’m working well, I have the right attitude, I have to improve things and I think that I’m on the right path and closer to the level of game that I’m looking for.”
    Nadal next plays in the Argentina Open.¤¤

    Read more:
    http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/02/7/Rio-Saturday-Nadal-Reaction.aspx

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