Sao Paulo final picks: Nadal vs. Nalbandian

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. David Nalbandian

Ricky: The concerning thing about Nadal’s comeback is that he is not getting better with every match. That isn’t entirely surprising since there is plenty of wear and tear on the knees–even on clay courts–when you play this many matches in such a short time frame, but it’s also not ideal. In a perfect world for Nadal, he would have eased past Horacio Zeballos in last week’s Vina del Mar final before blasting everything in his path in Sao Paulo. Not so. Losing a set to Carlos Berlocq is forgivable, but dropping one to a player named Martin Alund is something of great consternation.

Nalbandian had not played a match since Winston-Salem, so his run to the final is nothing short of a shock. The veteran Argentine has played well in Sao Paulo, but his trip has been even more difficult than that of Nadal. Can Nalbandian hold up physically for one more match–one that will come against one of the most ruthless opponents on tour? Probably so, but to the extent that he can actually pull off the upset? Probably not. Even this downgraded version of Nadal is not about to lose two consecutive finals on his favorite surface. Nadal 7-6, 6-2.

Steen (Tennis East Coast): A couple of comeback stories are in the Sao Paulo title match this week. Nadal, of course, in his second straight Golden Swing final after two straight gritty three-set wins over erlocq and Alund, in which he showed he still clearly isn’t anywhere near 100 percent even in victory and fell behind at times before his opponents tightened up. Nalbandian, meanwhile, surged to the final and showed he still has something left in the tank after a nice quarterfinal win in three sets over Nicolas Almagro, followed by a comfortable straight-set win over Simone Bolleli.

Nadal, though, will still prove to be a much tougher opponent. Nalbandian should test Nadal further and at times be able to break him, but I think Rafa will get over that loss in last week’s final, against another Argentine, and win this one. Nadal 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.

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