Another furious February week is on the schedule with a pair of 250-point events (Buenos Aires and Marseille) and a 500-pointer (Memphis). Rafael Nadal, who captured the Sao Paulo title on Sunday, is taking a break but the fields remain strong. Among the players in action are Juan Martin Del Potro (heading from a title in Rotterdam to Marseille), Milos Raonic (the three-time San Jose champion who now goes to Memphis) and David Ferrer (making his 2013 Golden Swing debut in Buenos Aires).
U.S. National Indoor Tennis Championships
Where: Memphis, Tennessee
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: $1,212,750
Points: 500
Top seed: Marin Cilic
Defending champion: Jurgen Melzer
Draw analysis: Raonic and Marin Cilic, the top two seeds, have already won titles this month. The big-serving Canadian triumphed for a third straight year in San Jose on Sunday and the Croat captured a third title in the last four installments of the Zagreb event. Based on current form and their established prowess on indoor hard courts, Raonic and Cilic have to be considered favorites to reach the Memphis final. Raonic’s path could include a quarterfinal against San Jose runner-up Tommy Haas and a semifinal against San Jose semifinalist John Isner. Cilic’s road may feature Kei Nishikori in the quarters and fourth-seeded American Sam Querrey in the semis.
Fernando Verdasco has withdrawn, which leaves Isner as the only seed in the third section of the bracket and presents a big opportunity for an unseeded group consisting of Michael Russell, Alex Bogomolov, Ryan Harrison, and Lukasz Kubot. Isner’s first two rounds, however, could be tough; he opens with Denis Istomin before possibly running into Lleyton Hewitt. Other first-round matchups to watch are Cilic vs. Ivan Dodig, Querrey vs. Alejandro Falla (a rematch of a San Jose quarterfinal thriller) and a showdown between former NCAA rivals Steve Johnson and Rhyne Williams.
First-round upset alert: Denis Istomin over (3) John Isner. Isner was in dreadful form late last year starting with the U.S. Open. Now he at least has an excuse (a knee injury), but he is still slumping almost two months into 2013. A semifinal in San Jose was not a bad result last week, but the first time he faced anyone even close to his level resulted in a routine loss to Haas. Istomin is certainly not on par with Haas, but he does have the talent to take advantage of a wounded opponent. The Uzbek finished runner-up to Raonic last year in San Jose, proving that his big serve and backhand can work well on indoor hard courts. If Isner’s serve isn’t in peak form, an upset is possible if not altogether probable.
Hot: Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, Evgeny Donskoy, Steve Johnson, Rhyne Williams
Cold: John Isner, Jurgen Melzer, Ryan Harrison, Florian Mayer, James Blake
Quarterfinal predictions: Marin Cilic over Kei Nishikori, Sam Querrey over Alexandr Dolgopolov, Lleyton Hewitt over Ryan Harrison, and Milos Raonic over Tommy Haas
Semifinals: Marin Cilic over Sam Querrey and Milos Raonic over Lleyton Hewitt
Final: Cilic over Raonic
Open 13
Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 528,135 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tomas Berdych
2011 champion: Juan Martin Del Potro
Draw analysis: Fresh off a big title in Rotterdam, will Del Potro have enough left in the tank to successfully defend his 2012 Marseille crown? He will have to kick it back into gear right away (following a first-round bye) because the draw did not do him any favors. The second-seeded Argentine will likely open against Michael Llodra, who finished runner-up to Del Potro last year. Another Frenchman, Gilles Simon, is coming off a semifinal in Rotterdam and he is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Del Potro. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, meanwhile, has a more favorable path in the third quarter of the bracket and should have no trouble booking a semifinal spot.
Whereas the bottom half features consistency in the form of Del Potro, Tsonga, and Simon, the top half is riddled with talented but mercurial performers. Both Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet are playing some of the best tennis of their careers, but they never have and never will be unbeatable for just about anyone. Berdych will have a tough opener on his hands against either Jarkko Nieminen or Ernests Gulbis. Potential quarterfinal opponents for the Czech include Rotterdam runner-up Julien Benneteau and ball-bashers Lukas Rosol and Jerzy Janowicz. Gasquet could face fellow Frenchman Gael Monfils as early as the second round before a possible showdown with Janko Tipsarevic in the last eight.
First-round upset alert: Lukas Rosol over (7) Jerzy Janowicz. Janowicz did relatively well to reach the Australian Open third round, but he has done nothing to prove his run to the 2012 Paris final was not a fluke. Not counting two Davis Cup rubbers in which he was an overwhelming favorite, the 6’8’’ Pole is just 2-3 for the season and he is coming off a first-round loss in Rotterdam to Victor Hanescu. Rosol already owns four ATP match wins this year, including a quarterfinal appearance in Zagreb. Janowicz should be able to win this, but a serve-fest with presumably just one or two breaks of serve could go either way.
Hot: Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Jarkko Nieminen, Julien Benneteau, Benoit Paire, Roberto Bautista-Agut
Cold: Ernests Gulbis, Gael Monfils, Gilles Muller, Somdev Devvarman, David Goffin
Semifinal predictions: Richard Gasquet over Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Michael Llodra
Final: Tsonga over Gasquet
Copa Claro
Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $484,100
Points: 250
Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: Before just about all the clay-court stars descend on Acapulco for a 500-point event, top Spanish players Nadal and Ferrer are taking turns as No. 1 seeds. This time is it Ferrer’s hand to try and there is no reason why he should not be able to defend his Buenos Aires title. He could face either Carlos Berlocq or Sao Paulo runner-up David Nalbandian in the second round, but really no opponent can be expected to provide much resistance prior to the title match. Unless potential semifinal foe Horacio Zeballos channels his other-worldly self that was on display against Nadal in Vina del Mar final, Ferrer should cruse through the top half of the draw.
Almagro often dominates the Golden Swing, but he skipped the first week and suffered a surprise loss to Nalbandian in the Sao Paulo quarters. The second-seeded Spaniard is on a collision course with Stanislas Wawrinka for the quarterfinals this week, but he should have absolutely no trouble whatsoever leading up to that stage. Wawrinka, however, has to open against Paolo Lorenzi right off the bat and another in-form clay-courter, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, may loom large in round two.
First-round upset alert: Paolo Lorenzi over (3) Stanislas Wawrinka. Wawrinka has not played a tournament since the Australian Open, but you can be sure he has spent more than his fair share of time on the tennis court. The question, of course, is how will the Swiss recover from what was enormous heartbreak even by Davis Cup standards. He lost the longest Davis Cup match in history then saw Berdych clinch the tie for the Czechs at his expense one day later. Lorenzi, meanwhile, has not been on fire but he has at least been getting comfortable on his favorite surface during the Golden Swing. Wawrinka should advance, but an upset is not out of the question.
Hot: David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Horacio Zeballos, Martin Alund
Cold: Pablo Andujar, Tommy Robredo, Leonardo Mayer, Albert Montanes
Semifinal predictions: David Ferrer over Horacio Zeballos and Nicolas Almagro over Stanislas Wawrinka
Final: Ferrer over Almagro
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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