It will be a surprising Masters 1000 semifinal when Tommy Paul and Nicolas Jarry square off at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday night.
Jarry leads the head-to-head series 2-1 overall and 1-0 on the main tour. Both guys are very comfortable on clay and they have split their two previous meetings on this surface; Paul prevailed in a third-set tiebreaker at a Futures tournament 10 years ago before Jarry much more recently scored a 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-5 victory at the 2023 French Open.
This promises to be yet another competitive clay-court contest with each man in outstanding form. Paul has impressed pretty much the entire season. The world No. 16 is up to 12th in the live race to Turin and would probably be even higher if not for an ankle injury suffered in his opening match at the Miami Masters. Paul is right back in business in Rome with wins over Aslan Karatsev, Dominik Koepfer, Daniil Medvedev, and Hubert Hurkacz, dropping just one set to Hurkacz in the process.
Jarry finished runner-up on the red clay of Buenos Aires and posted three other quarterfinal results in the first three months of the season, including in Miami. Despite those successes, this performance in Rome has come from almost out of nowhere. The 24th-ranked Chilean had been on a four-match losing streak, with immediate exits from clay-court events in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid. Suddenly, though, Jarry is back on track thanks to defeats of Matteo Arnaldi, Stefano Napolitano, Alexandre Muller, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
It has been tough road both mentally and physically for Jarry. He began his fortnight by outlasting two Italians in hard-fought matches in front of hostile fans and his quarterfinal against Tsitsipas was a 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 thriller on Thursday night. Now the 28-year-old will be tested by Paul, who is one of the most athletic and best defensive players on tour. The American will make Jarry hit an extra ball time and time again.
This should be a fun contrast in styles, with a slight edge going to Paul as he looks to continue what has been a consistently stellar 2024 campaign.
Pick: Paul in 3
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Tommy in 2.
Jsrry in 2, maybe 3
60% in 2