Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

May 10, 2016 Ricky Match previews 121

Rafael Nadal will be part of a jam-packed schedule in Rome as second-round action continues on Wednesday, and he faces a potentially tough opener against Philipp Kohlschreiber. Milos Raonic and Nick Kyrgios are also in action.

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. (5) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be looking to bounce back from a Madrid semifinal loss to Andy Murray when he takes the court at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. The fifth-Spaniard captured back-to-back titles on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, but his momentum–and his quest for the No. 4 seed at Roland Garros–took a hit last week. Conditions in Rome, however, have always been more advantageous for Nadal than they are in Madrid. He is 47-4 lifetime at this tournament with seven titles.

Up first for Nadal is Kohlschreiber, who is a futile 1-12 in their ATP-level head-to-head series. The nine-time French Open champion is 4-0 at Kohlschreiber’s expense on clay with set scores of 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-3. They just faced each other in Barcelona, where Nadal had no trouble coasting through a semifinal contest. Kohlschreiber set up this rematch by rolling over qualifier Inigo Cervantes 6-4, 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. The 26th-ranked German is 20-9 for the season and 12-4 in his last 16 matches, but he is a horrendous 0-21 in his last 21 non-retirement efforts against top-10 opponents.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(10) Milos Raonic vs. Nick Kyrgios

Raonic and Kyrgios will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-2, but Raonic won their only previous clay-court encounter 6-3, 7-6(1), 6-3 two years ago at Roland Garros. They split a pair of Wimbledon showdowns in 2014 and 2015 before Kyrgios extended his winning streak against the Canadian to two by prevailing 6-4, 7-6(4) two months ago in the Miami quarterfinals.
Kyrgios
Both big hitters are coming off Monday victories over Italian wild cards, although they took much different routes to find the winner’s circle. Kyrgios crushed little-known Salvatore Caruso 6-1, 6-2, while Raonic scraped past a more established competitor in Marco Cecchinato 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Despite not being at his very best, the world No. 10 improved to 24-5 for a season in which he has not yet lost prior to the quarterfinals of any tournament. Kyrgios is 20-6 and has reached at least the quarterfinals in five of seven events in 2016. The 20-year-old Australian may be more reliable from the baseline than his opponent, but Raonic wields an even bigger serve and his current match toughness may be unequaled by anyone except Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. This could be a scenario in which Kyrgios wins as many if not more total points only to see Raonic win the bigger ones.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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121 Comments on Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios vs. Raonic

  1. it’ll be interesting to see how Rafa’s loss at Madrid affects his on/iff confidence/concentration levels.
    Also, I hope his wrist is better.
    I’d say Rafa in 3 and Raonic in straights

    Reply

      • agreed…Milos can easily be sent packing…

        I don’t like seeing Nick in Rafa’s part of the draw…he is so motivated when Rafa is on the other side of the net…so is everyone else these days…

        Reply

  2. OOP – Wed
    Centre Court

    12 NOON
    Fed vs Zverev
    Djoker vs Robert

    Not before 7.30 pm
    Rafa vs Khols

    Grandstand
    12 noon
    Sousa vs Theim
    Murray vs Kukushkin

    Reply

  3. I agree that it will be interesting to see how the loss to Murray affects Rafa in his first match in Rome.

    Kohls can put up a fight at times, but the H2H is so lopsided in favor of Rafa, that I am not worried about the outcome. Rafa will also be. lot more comfortable with the conditions in Rome.

    If Rafa is sluggish at all, then kohls could steal a set off him, but I am thinking Rafa gets it done in 2 sets.

    I have to believe that Kyrgios/ raonic is going to be a good match. Both guys are playing well right now. I do think that raonic is the steadier, mentally stronger player. I think Raonic will win in 3 sets.

    Reply

  4. Given the tough draw, and statements from Rafa on his wrist plus poor play in Madrid, I doubt we will be seeing a Rafole quarter (which is likely for the best given the circumstances). Not to be confused with making fed fans happy (because he’d still likely beat bad knees bad back rules fed).

    Reply

    • It’s discouraging and disappointing to learn Rafa is suffering from yet another injury…that can explain his lousy game against Murray or his drop in level during the whole Madrid tourney…

      I hope it’s nothing serious! But I tend to agree with hawks 4:27 PM: with Rafa’s statement on the wrist injury and the tough draw we may not see Rafa in the quarters…unless Bellucci suddenly beats Nole which would give Rafa new incentive and would fill him with energy… 🙂 yeah, fairy tales do not happen to Rafa or his fans…we are used to getting it the hard way or is it better to say ‘the hardest possible way’…

      Reply

      • Nats – I’m in the throes of a major computer crisis. I have lost all (and when I say all I mean every single piece of info) and am having to reconstruct from absolute scratch with a new operating system I’m having nightmares trying to fathom out.
        I missed the news it has been revealed Rafa has a wrist injury: no wonder his game was so off and he looked grim faced during the semi final.

        Reply

    • This is the first I am hearing about a wrist injury with rafa. He is playing despite it. So I have to believe that it’s not serious. I certainly hope not, given that RG is right around the corner.

      Reply

  5. Now I really believe that how Rafa plays causes all his injuries.

    In the past I only believe that Rafa’s injury woes were due mainly because of his foot issue. However, Rafa has his back, right wrist and now left wrist issures, I doubt those are because of his foot issue.

    Rafa’s body is so beaten up and I can’t help but blame it on bad technique and the failure to notice and correct it when he was younger ( his coach is to be blamed surely!)

    I feel so sad and sorry about Rafa, he’s such a piece of fine material but has not been properly developed to its full potential. Instead, the fine material is subjected to unnecessary ‘abuse’ to make it excel, when there’s a better way of developing it to achieve the same or even better results.

    Rafa can hit the ball flatter, can play from close to the baseline taking the ball earlier, can serve quickly within time limit, can rush the net to finish the point there, IOWs, Rafa can play offensive tennis, as in 2004 to early 2005. Watch his matches back then. He won two HC masters at age 19, younger than Fed or Djokovic or Murray won their first HC Masters.

    All these changed when he started winning and dominating on clay; he was told to take his time to think before his serve; started to play his clay court game on the HCs and retreated to way behind the baseline instead of camping at the baseline to take the ball earlier. It’s no wonder he has to work so hard to win his matches, grinding most of the times when he has all the weapons and know how to play more offensive and attacking tennis ( Miami 2004 for example).

    Reply

  8. I think some of the comments are a bit over the top regarding Rafa. He got to the semi final in Madrid having won Monte Carlo and Barcelona back to back. He’s not exactly doing badly.

    Reply

      • I don’t think anyone is saying Rafa is doing badly. My concern is how Rafa lost that match.

        Obviously, Rafa is doing so much better than last year at this time.

        Reply

      • But he IS showing how capable he is on this surface – he won 13 matches in a row, beat 5 Top 20 players, 3 of them in the Top 10 and won two titles back to back. Losing in the semi final to Murray does not detract too much from that. He’s doing considerably better at this stage then he did in 2014, and he went on to win RG that year.

        Reply

        • fair points Arthur:) But, 2014 came after 2013 in which he proved to himself he could beat anyone. 2016 is coming after an year in which he kept losing to his own self! So, that is where the concern comes from. Not too bothered with the fact that he lost in a semi but with the manner of his loss. He had so many important moments on his racket and messed. He looked very tentative with Shot selection. I hope it was a one off and I agree overall things have been very positive.

          Reply

          • vr,

            I agree with you. Arthur makes some good points. I am grateful that Rafa is doing so well now and I would not want to take away from that. It is true that Rafa is coming off his worst year in 2015. Winning titles helps to build up his confidence, but it takes time and more wins for him to really feel that belief and inner confidence.

            There is no shame in losing to Murray, but converting only 2 out of 13 break chances is just not good. Rafa was in this match and Murray did not play that well either. But Rafa had so many opportunities.

            I think we all want to hope that it was a one-off and that rafa will bounce back nicely in
            Rome.

            I think we do worry and fret when we see Rafa losing in this manner. But I do think the two titles Rafa has won will keep him going in the right direction.

          • agreed! If he can play a high quality match against Novak without showing the tentativeness she showed in Madrid, I will be satisfied. I don’t think it is possible to have a lop-sided result in the qtr if Rafa can just manage his nerves and play at a good level.

        • To me, Rafa losing to Mooray is a setback. Rafa looked sluggish during that match and he said, himself, that he lacked rhythm because when he has rhythm he is better than others.

          Reply

    • wtf is wrong with Stan!? he can’t beat other players to meet the top guys. I am banking on him big time if Rafa can’t find his best in RG lol… Stan is so vulnerable to the field. Losing to Paire right now..

      Reply

      • I am watching Stan’s match. He’s just not very good form now. A bad game at the end of the first set allowed Paire to win it.

        I picked Stan to win this one. Now at least he is up a break in the second set.

        Reply

        • Stan was pretty bad on clay last year before Rome and then played good tennis here and that culminated in him demolishing Djokovic’s dreams of an RG title…haha..

          Reply

          • Stan had a meltdown when the chair umpire called him out for an obscenity. So then Stan yelled the word out loud and the commentators had to apologize. But it got Stan fired up.

    • Stan got the win in 3 sets. It seemed that after the warning from the chair umpire, Stan got knocked out if his lethargy. He needs a decent result here to get some momentum going gor RG.

      Reply

  11. Wawrinka needed to warm up I guess. Lol, that double fault from Paire has given Stan the 1-3 lead in the final set. Looks like he is going to get it! After the heated discussion with the umpire Benoit isn’t playing good anymore.

    Reply

  12. I was gonna say after Paire won the first set: don’t hold your breath, Paire will find the way to self-destruct and lose in the end…and he certainly did…

    Reply

  15. You think Rafa could manage to get day matches given his stated preference for playing under the sun.

    Ridiculously tough draw and biased scheduling is suspicious to say the least trying to prevent him getting back to form for Paris.

    Reply

    • Hawkeyes: This is off topic but could you give me the address for the livescore site you recommended.

      You may have seen I am in dire straits having had to crash my MacBook because I was locked out after downloading FileVault and I have lost every single piece of data.. Whatever you do folks don’t fall for this protection programme. It is a nightmare.

      Reply

  19. The tennis channel commentators said there was a rain delay. So that is going to push all the matches back.

    Reply

      • Hawkeye,

        What? That’s not good! Then I will keep updating the action.

        Tennis channel commentators saying that Kyrgios may have a hip ussue. Chair umpire asked him on the changeover if he wanted him to have s physio nearby, but Kyrgios said no. It’s a hip flexor issue.

        They said it’s cold and damp still from the rain.

        Krygios holds and it’s a TB. Surprise!

        Reply

  24. Kyrgios gets lucky with a shank mishit for a winner.

    Oops, Kyrgios loses the next point.

    Big serve from kygrios gets him to set point.

    Reply

  33. Raonic played well in the 1st set and it was down to one or two points in the TB after that Raonic went awol.

    Reply

  36. I’m not. Milos’ play goes in cycles timed with his injuries one of which he is just coming out of and Nick has been the more consistent player over the last few weeks plus the clay takes some of the sting out of his serve and nick’s wingspan puts him in a good position for good ROS diminishing Milos’ strength.

    Reply

  37. as expected…I just knew Kyrgios would win…I do not know what makes Kyrgios happier at the moment: the fact that he beat Milos or the prospect of having to play Rafa…

    Reply

  38. Drizzly damp conditions plus an evening match against an improved Khols on Klay is concerning.

    Rafa blamed such conditions last week for some poor results saying it diminishes his spin.

    Don’t know why he’s unable to secure day matches. Well actually I do.

    Reply

  39. Tracy Austin just said that she thinks Rafa is at 80 or 90%. She said if he was 100% he would not have lost to Murray in Madrid.

    I think that’s a fair assessment,

    Reply

  40. I am a bit concerned about the conditions. They said it’s raining lightly now.

    Rafa has an easy hold in his first service game.

    Reply

      • It’s not just Rafa – I’ve lost count of how many players are using drop shots and messing up on them.

        Until Jerzy fought his way to the final in Paris on the strength of his drop shots you hardly ever saw it being used. Now there is an epidemic of them. Not only is Rafa losing points by playing them poorly he is also being caught out time and time again by his opponents catching him out. In fact in his last few matches he has not even tried to get to them. Time was when his skill in this department was legendary.

        Reply

      • Maybe Rafa is better off at night considering he seems to suffer from the heat. He is Spanish so even though Spain is hot and sunny most of the time, the Spaniards don’t stay out in the sun much, they have a siesta in the hottest part of the day.

        Reply

  41. As I thought he would, Nick got it done against Raonic. Can’t wait for Rafa vs NK round two. That’s barring an unlikely upset win for Kohlschreiber of course.

    Reply

  42. It seems like Nick just has all the answers against Milos now. That match will be awesome between him and Rafa if it happens.

    Reply

    • vr,

      I am confused. Didn’t you say in a previous comment that Rafa will have a night match against Kyrgios?

      Reply

  45. huh, I could sense Rafa was nervous in this set…so was I 🙁 but he played solid set…hope he is more relaxed in the second…and no mental lapses, Rafa! Get it done in 2!

    Vamos Champ!

    Reply

    • Yes, that was good shot making from Rafa to hold serve.

      Both guys playing well. Kohls shows up to play and give it his best.

      Now kohls down 0-30.

      Reply

  52. That was a brain fart by Rafa to hit straight back to Kohls on 30-30 ! The return on BP was sheer brilliance from the German though.

    Reply

  56. Rafa’s CC baxkhand return is so good at the moment!

    Wow Rafa delivering some knockout punches there from both wings ! Breaks again

    Reply

  63. Listened to Rafa’s Conversation with the Sky Sports commentators. Rafa sounded very happy and he said he was really happy with his forehand DTL , a shot he felt was missing in Madrid. The commies praised his backhand and rafa said he struck his backhand well tonight and when his forehand DTL and backhand cross court are working well, his whole game improves! Totally agreed.

    He was also asked about any adjustment to string tension and he said “only half a kilo. nothing major”.

    This was such a great performance after the disappointment in Madrid. He looked really comfortable in the second set , far more than he was in the entire week in Madrid. This Rafa would have beaten Murray for sure.

    This is the difference in this Rafa vs the 2015 Rafa…this Rafa has the ability to put aside bad losses and bounce back. He has prepared well for a challenge tomorrow.

    Reply

  64. That was altogether more enjoyable to watch. A few careless mistakes but he made up for that with some stunning vintage Rafa shots. It was cold in Rome tonight but Rafa was dripping with sweat so their were some nerves but he kept them under control. Not looking forward to the next match one little bit 🙁

    Reply

    • I understand Ed… but, it is one tournament away from RG now so no point in hiding from matches like these. Rafa should be ready as he has played enough matches on clay. He has won his last 14/15 matches which is very good.

      Kyrgios has an insane serving day at wimbledon and Rafa had no answer to his serve that day for FOUR sets. That was so weird as Rafa never got a read on his serve, esp the flat one up the middle on the deuce court and then the one to the forehand on the ad court.

      This is clay and serve won’t be a big factor. Rafa’s returning well and he should be fine. Nick’s return game is not so good and if Rafa can serve decently, he will be okay on his serve.

      I pick Rafa in 2 sets

      Reply

      • I also think Rafa should play difficult opponents to get to the point where no draw will be an issue like it was before his lapse.

        Reply

  66. It was 15 winners and only 8 UE for the second set. Too good against a player who was hitting the ball very well.

    Overall he won 70% second serve points.

    Not sure what anyone else thinks but I am totally in favor of Rafa’s new position on the ad court to serve. It helps him not only on his first but also his second serve.

    Reply

    • First, I think that Rafa should play tough opponents now. He has two titles and a semifinal result in Madrid. So he has confidence and belief. If ever there was a time for Rafa to meet Krygios, it’s now on clay. He has to be tested before RG. We don’t know how the draw will play out for RG. So let Rafa be ready for all comers!

      I am happy with anything that works and helps Rafa. So if moving over to serve is giving him an advantage, then of course I am all for it.

      Rafa showed today that the loss to Murray did not set him back. He seems a lot more comfortable on the courts in Rome.

      I think Rafa will have a good shot at the win tomorrow if he plays the way he did today. Rafa knows what to expect from Krygios. I think he will be ready.

      Reply

      • Agreed. Beating Kyrgios will erase fears of meeting a big hitter in the earlier rnds of RG. Rafa will win tomorrow.

        Reply

  67. A short video from Rafa’s post-match press conference:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCv1L-hAIV0

    Rafa: “I’m very satisfied. I think I played at a very high level in all aspects. I think the forehand down the line, that is very important shot for me. In Madrid I missed it but it worked great tonight. And I feel like I practiced well these two days, and I started very good the tournament.”

    Reply

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