Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

Rome boasts a monster quarterfinal lineup on Friday, headlined by top seed Novak Djokovic facing Stefanos Tsitsipas. Second seed Rafael Nadal is taking on his recent Madrid vanquisher, Alexander Zverev.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Last fall Stefanos Tsitsipas clawed his way back from a two-set deficit at the French Open to push Novak Djokovic to five sets. The Serb won that match in the end, but Tsitsipas proved that he has plenty of fight and determination. The Greek is playing better tennis now than he was then, making their quarterfinal match on Friday all the more tantalizing.

Djokovic’s matches this week have been fairly routine, but the difficulty level is about to make some considerable jumps. Tsitsipas won the Monte-Carlo Masters and he made the final in Barcelona. His clay-court season thus far is the best on tour. The Serb may also have less motivation than he had in the past. Recently, he said “Now, after achieving the historic No. 1 ranking for the longest weeks at number one, it’s going to be a relief for me because I’m going to focus all my attention on Slams, mostly.”

He’ll still need match play, but he’ll perhaps be less willing to leave it all on the court outside the majors. With the way Tsitsipas has been playing and moving, this one has all the makings of an upset.

Cheryl pick: Tsitsipas in 3

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas?

(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) Alexander Zverev

Things have become more complicated for Nadal on the dirt than they usually are. The Spaniard, who normally skates through the early stages of a tournament, has been pushed mightily in Rome. It’s true that his draw wasn’t favorable, with Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov as his first two opponents–but he’s been on court for more than five hours so far. His form against Sinner was good, but he struggled on serve against Shapovalov and had to pull out the win after being down two match points in the third set.

Alexander Zverev just posted his first clay court-win over Nadal last week in Madrid. The two men met in the quarters there, as well. While the altitude in Madrid tends to favor bigger servers like Zverev, it is still a clay-court tournament and defeating Nadal on this surface under any circumstances is still a notable accomplishment.

Zverev didn’t look particularly strong in his three-set win over Kei Nishikori. Midway through the second set, the German was down a set and a break. He managed to find his way to the win, but he looked off-kilter for much of the match.

With a more traditional clay court, Nadal is still the favorite to advance–but the second seed will have to make more first serves than he has been all week. Zverev isn’t as likely to let off the hook the way Shapovalov did in the round of 16.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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WWW: Nadal vs. Zverev?

34 Comments on Rome QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Zverev, Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

  1. I think despite his struggles Rafa is getting the real workout he needs in prep for RG!! Life usually always comes to a perfect balance.

    Hope Rafa makes me smile again tomorrow. Vamos, Rafa!!

    • That might well be true, Monalisa.

      But, I’m feeling doubtful that the outcome of this Tsitsi match is not as much up to Novak as it is in Stefanos’ hands.

  2. I just checked the score to see that Rafa won! I woke up early and turned on the tv to see that Rafa win the first set, I checked my recording and went back to sleep!

    Now I have to watch the match! I am so happy!

    Yesterday I just couldn’t watch after Rafa was down 2-4 in the second set. I checked the score but did not watch until the third set TB. Later on I went back and watched my recording. What struck me is that Rafa seemed to play better from the latter part of the second set on. He did get broken again early in the third set, but he broke right back. He also had break chances at 3-3 and at 5-5. The tennis channel commentators said at one point in the third set that Rafa’s serving stats had improved a lot. So as I watched the third set I realized that serving better was freeing up Rafa to go for his shots.

    Rafa was still missing some shots he would normally make. But he stayed in it. I am glad I did not watch it live because he had to fight off two match points to get to the TB. Yikes! But the TB was anti-climactic. Shapo played so well in the match until the TB.

    I felt encouraged after watching how it played out. Rafa finished the match playing much better than when he started. I was hoping that this might get him ready for Zverev. I am not saying that all is well now, but I did see some good signs in that victory.

    I am going to watch my recording of the match!

    Rafa is in the semis!
    😀

  3. It’s 12:30 PM Eastern Time and Rome has just pulled the tarps off the main court! Live tennis soon. Maybe.

    • I have been following a sketchy hourly forecast for precipitation. If it is true, the rain only gets worse from now until 11 pm (Rome time). Even then, when there is a break, it will be midnight and the fans have a curfew. Wow, we could use all that rain here in Idaho!

      The good news is tomorrow looks better for tennis.

    • Feeling sorry for Svitolina, Swiatek, Rublev, and Sonego. Maybe they give them the choice of playing in spurts, stops, and starts tonight and after the curfew. Or, double up their matches tomorrow.

  4. Just watched the rome 2018 final and Rafa finished the match with a slice backhand volley not dissimilar to today

  5. Well, I would have picked Zv in 2….but I guess I was all wrong…Rafa just continues to amaze, even after that total guts wins over Shapo on Th…..and I’ll take Tpas in 3.

  6. The problem with Tsitsipas is he’s capable of losing the match from a winning position so often, sometimes even when he had MPs against his opponent. Imo, he really needs someone to help bring his game to the next level; he just couldn’t sustain a winning momentum within a match esp against fellow to ten players. He won’t be winning a slam playing like that, I’m afraid.

  7. Win or lose.. djoko is beinng played back into form.. he has been amazing in the rallies. Also probably helps the older person when one starts afresh

  8. Djoko seems to have taken a page out of rafas book.. i can fail with my game not with my mind
    A rafole final will be a blockbuster

  9. And some will say Tsistipas deserved to win?! There is no such thing! He served for the match!!!! The winner always deserves the win!!!!

    • I could never disregard Novak as a contender at any slam…the big three will always be the favorites as long as they decide to play…these youngsters think that once they win a match against big three it will get easier…well, it won’t…Rafa and Novak are just the favorites no matter what…however, I really do not want the two of them killing each other for the title in Rome..I want Rafa to stay healthy for RG…

      Vamos Champ!

  10. See, told you, Tsitsipas is always capable of losing a winnable match! This is not the last time, I bet! If he continues like this, he’s not going to win a slam!

    He needs someone to help him mentally! Losing so often from winning positions is not going to help his confidence. He’s wasting time continuing playing like this!

    • I agree with you. I think he needs a sports psychologist on board. Also may be time to say goodbye to dad and get someone else to just tidy up his game, eg his ROS needs work.
      Fabulously talented player, however.

  11. Federer has lost from winning positions too but would you call him mentally weak ?.All players struggle with the mental side of the game even Nadal and Djoko who are two of the best scrappers ever.Maybe it’s related to a particular style of play ,ie easiermentally to be defensive than attack on big points

    • Nah, the big three are getting old and their mental lapses may be due to their own physical decline. Tsitsipas is young, he’s wasting energy so often in matches, losing from winning positions.

      He had four MPs vs Rublev in one of their matches, yet he ended up losing the match; and that wasn’t the only match he lost from winning position. It happens so often that I doubt that has got to do with his game but his mentality. I mean if he was capable of getting to winning positions so often, then what in his game stopped him from winning?? It must be something mental.

      He needs someone to help him stay focused when he’s leading, and to raise his level to finish the match quickly instead of having lapses and letting his opponent back into the match. He doesn’t seem to have the killer instinct once he’s ahead, and tends to relax when he’s ahead.

        • He did lose the Acapulco final after being ahead. Then he made a breakthrough in MC,only to lose to Rafa
          It’s really a mixed bag.

        • Tsitsipas was in a losing position in the first place, not in a winning position to start with. So as I said in my post, Tsitsipas tends to relax when he’s ahead, and that’s the problem!

          It seems that he’s better chasing from behind instead of when leading! Hence, he’s using up more energy unnecessarily imo; just step it up when ahead instead of letting the match slip away from his grasp.

          • It’s not uncommon among even top players to lose from set and break up even serving for match.It could be overconfidence but also credit to their opponent.
            He’s still very young

    • honestly Sanju, I always dislike seeing Novak on the opposite side of the net with Rafa…the two are still playing into form and would hate seeing Rafa lose to Novak at this point…we know how confident Novak gets when playing Rafa in these best of two…this is why I hoped Tsitsi would win, but then again, who knows why this might be productive: it might as well be good for Rafa to test his current form against Novak…and even if he ends up losing (Rafa’s game is not there yet, but neither is Novak’s) Rafa makes a different beast at RG…let’s hope for the best for our Rafa…

  12. Everyone has lost form a winning position but you have to balance it with winning form a losing position as well. The big 3 do the latter more consistently than the former. So when they owe form a winning position it is quite an outlier whereas with the others it’s almost it a surprise

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