Rome preview and picks

Rafael Nadal is not alone this time. The world No. 1 faced only one Top 10 opponent en route to the Madrid title and that was his personal punching bag, Tomas Berdych. Part of the reason, of course, was the absence of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. This week, however, all hands are on deck—at least as the draw stands now. Djokovic apparently has the green light from his doctors and Federer seemingly has the same from his wife, who gave birth to twin boys last week. Meanwhile, Andy Murray and a whole host of other seeds will be looking to fine-tune their clay-court games at their final event prior to this month’s French Open.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia

Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros
Points: 1000

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: In what is a well-balanced draw (subject to change depending on possible withdrawals), Tomas Berdych may have been dealt the worst news of the eight players with byes straight through to the second round. Berdych’s opener could come against a red-hot Roberto Bautista Agut, to whom the Czech lost earlier this spring in Indian Wells. He is also on a collision course with Grigor Dimitrov in the third round for what would be a rematch of a hard-fought Madrid encounter—won by Berdych in three sets. The second quarter of the Rome bracket also features Australian Open and Monte-Carlo champion Stanislas Wawrinka.

On paper at least, it looks like no favors have been done for Madrid semifinalist David Ferrer as he looks to make a quick turnaround from an epic three-set loss to Kei Nishikori. Ferrer could face either Nishikori or Ernests Gulbis in the third round; he went up against both of them last week, holding off Gulbis before succumbing to Nishikori. Granted, the Japanese man’s status for Rome is questionable at best and Ferrer should continue to have an edge over Gulbis on clay. Djokovic, set to return from a wrist injury, may await the Spaniard in the quarterfinals. The world No. 2 should have no trouble of any kind in his first two matches unless he is not 100 percent physically.

Also making a comeback of sorts, Federer cannot be too disappointed with his draw. The 32-year-old Swiss’ nearest seeds are Fabio Fognini, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Milos Raonic. Fognini famously lacks belief against top players, Tsonga has been a non-factor in 2014, and Raonic—even though his serve can make him dangerous any time he takes the court—is not in peak form, nor is he at his best on clay. If someone crashes the party in the third section of the bracket, it could be Alexandr Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian will be a bad matchup on clay for any one of his first three Rome opponents, including Tsonga in the opening round.

Nadal, meanwhile, is slated to meet Murray in the last eight. Given the Scot’s current state, though, it’s hard to see him bringing that to fruition—and it would not be an intriguing matchup even if it did take place. Nadal should coast past either Gilles Simon or Filippo Volandri and then Fernando Verdasco before a more likely date with either Jurgen Melzer or Marin Cilic as opposed to Murray.

First-round upset alert: Andreas Seppi over (15) Tommy Haas. Seppi made a famous run to the 2012 Rome quarterfinals, treating the home crowd to memorable three-set upsets of John Isner and Wawrinka to go along with a three-setter over Denis Istomin before finally falling to Federer. It won’t require such a Herculean effort against a slumping Haas, who has been plagued by a shoulder injury throughout this season. The two veterans just faced each other in Munich, where Haas prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. This time around, of course, it’s Seppi who has home-court advantage.

Also watch out for Gulbis against an exhausted and injured Nishikori (although the soon-to-be Top 10 player is likely to withdraw), Nicolas Mahut against an ice-cold Youzhny, and Dolgopolov against a slumping Tsonga.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Fabio Fognini, Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis

Cold: Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Haas, Gilles Simon, Filippo Volandri, Jurgen Melzer, Dmitry Tursunov, Vasek Pospisil, Juan Monaco

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Marcel Granollers, Stanislas Wawrinka over Grigor Dimitrov, Alexandr Dolgopolov over Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer

Semifinals: Nadal over Wawrinka and Djokovic over Dolgopolov

Final: Nadal over Djokovic

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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