Rafael Nadal is not alone this time. The world No. 1 faced only one Top 10 opponent en route to the Madrid title and that was his personal punching bag, Tomas Berdych. Part of the reason, of course, was the absence of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. This week, however, all hands are on deck—at least as the draw stands now. Djokovic apparently has the green light from his doctors and Federer seemingly has the same from his wife, who gave birth to twin boys last week. Meanwhile, Andy Murray and a whole host of other seeds will be looking to fine-tune their clay-court games at their final event prior to this month’s French Open.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: In what is a well-balanced draw (subject to change depending on possible withdrawals), Tomas Berdych may have been dealt the worst news of the eight players with byes straight through to the second round. Berdych’s opener could come against a red-hot Roberto Bautista Agut, to whom the Czech lost earlier this spring in Indian Wells. He is also on a collision course with Grigor Dimitrov in the third round for what would be a rematch of a hard-fought Madrid encounter—won by Berdych in three sets. The second quarter of the Rome bracket also features Australian Open and Monte-Carlo champion Stanislas Wawrinka.
On paper at least, it looks like no favors have been done for Madrid semifinalist David Ferrer as he looks to make a quick turnaround from an epic three-set loss to Kei Nishikori. Ferrer could face either Nishikori or Ernests Gulbis in the third round; he went up against both of them last week, holding off Gulbis before succumbing to Nishikori. Granted, the Japanese man’s status for Rome is questionable at best and Ferrer should continue to have an edge over Gulbis on clay. Djokovic, set to return from a wrist injury, may await the Spaniard in the quarterfinals. The world No. 2 should have no trouble of any kind in his first two matches unless he is not 100 percent physically.
Also making a comeback of sorts, Federer cannot be too disappointed with his draw. The 32-year-old Swiss’ nearest seeds are Fabio Fognini, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Milos Raonic. Fognini famously lacks belief against top players, Tsonga has been a non-factor in 2014, and Raonic—even though his serve can make him dangerous any time he takes the court—is not in peak form, nor is he at his best on clay. If someone crashes the party in the third section of the bracket, it could be Alexandr Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian will be a bad matchup on clay for any one of his first three Rome opponents, including Tsonga in the opening round.
Nadal, meanwhile, is slated to meet Murray in the last eight. Given the Scot’s current state, though, it’s hard to see him bringing that to fruition—and it would not be an intriguing matchup even if it did take place. Nadal should coast past either Gilles Simon or Filippo Volandri and then Fernando Verdasco before a more likely date with either Jurgen Melzer or Marin Cilic as opposed to Murray.
First-round upset alert: Andreas Seppi over (15) Tommy Haas. Seppi made a famous run to the 2012 Rome quarterfinals, treating the home crowd to memorable three-set upsets of John Isner and Wawrinka to go along with a three-setter over Denis Istomin before finally falling to Federer. It won’t require such a Herculean effort against a slumping Haas, who has been plagued by a shoulder injury throughout this season. The two veterans just faced each other in Munich, where Haas prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. This time around, of course, it’s Seppi who has home-court advantage.
Also watch out for Gulbis against an exhausted and injured Nishikori (although the soon-to-be Top 10 player is likely to withdraw), Nicolas Mahut against an ice-cold Youzhny, and Dolgopolov against a slumping Tsonga.
Hot: Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Fabio Fognini, Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis
Cold: Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Haas, Gilles Simon, Filippo Volandri, Jurgen Melzer, Dmitry Tursunov, Vasek Pospisil, Juan Monaco
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Marcel Granollers, Stanislas Wawrinka over Grigor Dimitrov, Alexandr Dolgopolov over Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer
Semifinals: Nadal over Wawrinka and Djokovic over Dolgopolov
Final: Nadal over Djokovic
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
[polldaddy poll=8038703]
https://twitter.com/augustazeight/status/465628961243156481/photo/1
Wawrinka will be a very tough one for rafa if it were to happen…. nadal vs djokovic would be very interesting …
I think Rafa is in a much better state mentally. He showed much better fight in Madrid and much better tennis too (against Berdych in particular)…
Rafa said before the tournament that his movement and backhand need a lots of improvement and his forehand needs more power. I am not at all satisfied with the progress on the backhand side …the other two aspects have seen improvement …
I felt bad for Nishikori…he was the much better player till 6-2 4-2 …many would say it was his poor physical conditioning that brought rafa back in the match but let’s not forget the colossal effort rafa put in the eight game ! On the third break point of the game, he was there like a concrete wall. Nishikori hit so many winning shots but rafa was just not willing to surrender. After that, rafa played a confident game to lead 5-4 and then obviously Nishikori had started to get completely hampered…
I hope the incremental improvements keep coming in for rafa.. madrid’s altitude poses greater problems for rafa. In Rome, he will be more comfortable . Winning rome is of prime importance
I don’t think Djokovic will reach the Final though…
^^^^I’m of the same mind. He hasn’t really changed his game over the years. He just got better at doing what he’s always done well. There’s a raft of players capable of giving him a hard time now. Plus he’s missed a lot of match play since Miami. Pity Nishe is unlikely to be in Rome, I would love to know how he would’ve responded to that challenge!
vamosrafa,
Someone on vb posted a link to the rally when it was 4-3 Nishi leading. I don’t remember the actual score in the game, but that clip showed Rafa bullying Nishi from one end of the court to the other in a particularly grueling rally. Right after it was over and Nishi lost the point, that’s when he seemed to start limping. Rafa was a concrete wall and that might have been the last straw for Nishi’s bad back. So it was actually Rafa’s good shot making that pushed Nishi to that point.
I don’t think it was Nishi’s poor physical conditioning that allowed Rafa to get back in it. I think Rafa came out playing better in that second set. He had 0-40 to break Nishi, but missed two forehands. But he was getting break chances. I thought he was more animated, served better, less UE’s, overall just more like himself.
For my thoughts on the draw, I think that Rafa has a really good shot at going deep here. It’s interesting that Ricky picked Granollers to get to the quarterfinals to meet Rafa. I don’t know about that one, but honestly it’s kind of a crap shoot in that part of the draw. Ricky also picked Dimitrov to get through to meet Stan. Berdy could still get through like he did in Madrid. Stan will want to make a better showing than he had in Madrid. That’s for sure! I still don’t see Murray getting through to meet Rafa in the quarterfinals.
The pick that surprised me the most is Dolgo to meet Fed in the quarterfinals. I would have thought Raonic might get there. I don’t think Fognini can keep it together long enough. We could have a surprise there.
If Rafa meets Stan in the semis, that will be a tough one. But if Rafa is to win Rome, this time he will bump up against one of the top players.
nativenewyorker7 says:
May 12, 2014 at 6:51 am
“If Rafa meets Stan in the semis, that will be a tough one. But if Rafa is to win Rome, this time he will bump up against one of the top players.”
You’re talking about the same Stan who was beaten by a qualifier in Madrid?
@nadline,
So suddenly that makes Stan a chump? Do you really want to go there? I do think that the hype over Stan as the next big thing in tennis was overdone, especially after he won MC. But he’s a quality player. One loss to a qualifier does not make him a bum. Rafa lost to some players that he should not have lost to in the last two years at Wimbledon. Again, I am merely giving Stan the same consideration. Now if he gets knocked out early again, that’s when I might change my mind.
So you don’t see him even giving Rafa a competitive match?
Do you ever get tired of picking Nadal and Djokovic to reach the final of every single tournament they play ever?
Makes a change after the Fedal era.
They currently hold eight of nine Masters titles.
#NotRocketScience
And Djokovic was 3 time defending champion at AO. And Nadal won MC 8/9 years. And won Barcelona every year he played for a decade. It seems like a refusal of reality to consider things might also be different here.
Who did you pick to win AO, MC and Barcelona this year?
Yes let’s try to change the subject once again with a sentence dripping with condescension from the resident rocket scientist.
My apologies snowdevil. That hashtag was uncalled for but a carry over from past disagreements. No excuse.
However, it was not a change in subject.
See, I never made any predictions. Not my forte. But you can also continue to deny reality and cling to the narrative for whatever reason. Have fun with that.
My point is not about you making predictions per se. It is about Ricky going with the guys who own the titles. Ricky can speculate about potential upsets or dark horses but that’s a different game.
For that matter snowdevil, just go to easyodds.com where professional odds makers are predicting the same as Ricky regarding Rome.
BTW, maybe you like my predictions below perchance?
#BFFs?
In retrospect, overall I think that Ricky is going out more on a limb than I am with his Rome predictions.
#JustCantSeemToLeaveWellEnoughAlone
I enjoy reading Ricky’s predictions. If I didn’t I wouldn’t come here. But I feel like those predictions don’t have any courage (the exception being Dolgopolov over Federer, I personally don’t think either one of them will make it that far). I think your predictions are more entertaining than Ricky’s.
Not sure if that’s a compliment or an insult to Ricky.
Either way, I’ll take it.
#SuspiciousMinds
#FYCversion
Hey I was right about Dog and Fed. Go me.
Isn’t that because the make the final of virtually every tournament they play?
Nadal is 2/7 for finals/tournaments played this year and Djokovic is 2/5 so, no they clearly haven’t.
Sorry I meant 5/8 for finals with Nadal. Don’t know where 2/7 came from.
“Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!”
Pretty clear, methinks. Means you don’t have to go with Ricky’s picks…………….
People are free to disagree with Ricky. He doesn’t take it personally.
Grigor Dimitrov is struggling against Edouard Roger-Vasselin, who won the 1st set.
Fed!….and if not Fed, maybe Ferrer…just not sold on Rafa right now.
QF:
Nadal over Granollers
Stan over Dimi
Fed over Dolgo
Nole over Ferru
SF:
Stan over Nadal
Nole over Fed
F:
Nole over Stan
Assumptions:
Continued burn out/loss of aggression/confidence from King of Tennis
Nole’s wrist is good to go
It shouldn’t have to be said but this is Rafa’s tournament to lose. If he is near his best, he would definitely win. Consistency is key and we haven’t seen that from Rafa since before the AO final.
#ImFromMissouri
#OrIsItMissery
#JinxingAtItsBest
Aren’t you saying the same thing as I did (albeit more suscinctly) in your post below?
#Curious
Statement wise, it’s almost the same. But yeah, I’m not picking any winners in order to jinx them.
Facing facts is different than #AntiJinxings.
I am waiting to see if there is any criticism for someone who picked Stan to beat Rafa in the semis. Or am I the only one who gets the grief if I say that I think Stan will be tough for Rafa in the semis?
Interesting, to say the least. 😉
Just you NNY. 🙄
Given Rafa’s recent form anyone will be tough for him!
And if Stan does reaches the SF, it would mean that he is playing well and with confidence. So yeah Stan has every chance of upsetting Rafa.
^^^ this
^Misery
#Humble
@hawkeye,
Aw shucks! Thanks for the clarification! But I could do without the rolling eye emoticon. I think that’s a bit rude.
Man, can’t make a pick on this one.
Rafa may be the favourite b’coz of his past history and ailing Nole, but game wise he is really struggling out there. I won’t be surprised if he loses this title.
abhirf,
You don’t think your man has a chance in Rome?
What?? Fed??
Well I do feel that he can win the whole thing if he doesn’t meet Rafa. He can certainly defeat everyone else as he is a much better clay courter than rest of the field.
Is MUCH better clay courter than Nole? Really?
Is MUCH better than even Wawa who tamed him in MC?
Maybe was, but not is.
Interesting take.
Yeah, he definitely was and still is a much better clay courter than Nole. But yes, Nole is definitely the better player of the 2.
So much better means he should easily handle Roger when they meet in the semis??
Rog’s a bad match up for Nole. So I dont think it would be easy.
Rafa.
Wawa will fall to RBA in the quarters, who in turn will fall to Rafa in the semis. Djokovic’s wrist is fine, nobody to trouble him till the final, where he will fall to the King of Clay.
Rafa’s first opponent is on the court.
Gilles Simon won the first set 6-2.
I hope it’s Gillou who makes it to meet Rafa, hasn’t played Rafa in a while…………….
Gilles won the match 6-2, 6-3. He is Rafa’s first opponent.
abhirf,
Fed’s your guy isn’t he? I would think you might believe he has a chance. Then I guess Fed would have to hope that Rafa doesn’t get to the final. That’s what happened in MC.
Of course Fed is my guy..
To be frank, I don’t have too much of expectations of him now. Just want him to play well and if he wins anything it’s an added joy for me. I watch tennis for entertainment and his play tops that list.
But he is much better on clay than any other player not named Nadal, isn’t he? That seems like a high expectation to me, no?
#DontYou?
#OrDoYou?
You for real?? You really seem to have a problem of comprehending or is it just a sarcastic comment.
Look at it this way, Rafa had 2 early round exits at Wimby. Does this make him a poor grass court player than say Nole.
Fed is a better clay courter than others is a fact not an expectation.
To hope that Fed will be making it to the finals or winning the trophy is high expectations.
#DoYou ??
The Fog drops the 1st set to Rosol………
Because.
La Rosol up a set and a break against the Foggy Bottom Boy.
abhirf,
I get what you are saying totally. Fed would have had a decent record on clay is there wasn’t a Rafael Nadal standing in his way. He has done much better this year, but still has trouble maintaining a high level of play to get the win.
I think you have a realistic attitude going into Rome. You want your guy to play well and get the best result possible. There’s nothing wrong with that! 😉
Fognini has stopped trying.
Rafa is in Rome and will be on the practice court soon
https://twitter.com/LuisGatTWI/status/465874198599319552
He is there
https://twitter.com/RAFAddicted/status/465885482023665664/photo/1
Gussie, how you do this please.
hawkeye63 (at 4:24 pm)
This?? What do you mean?
Embed tweets.
I tried the Embed Tweets in Twitter and pasted the code but it didn’t quite work
Well it kind of worked but it didn’t show the parent tweet like it said it would.
On further inspection, I think this is a twitter bug. Embedded code is the same regardless of if I check include parent tweet or not.
hawkeye63@May 12, 2014 at 4:37 pm
I have found it impossible to get rid of a parent tweet.
Wow. That’s funny. I can’t seem to get it included.
Rosol pulls off another upset.
#Classic
Noooooo.
#EtTuTenngrand???
Wimbledon ✔ @Wimbledon
Could there really be four Federers playing at #Wimbledon one day?
Not Roger Federer @PseudoFed
@Wimbledon Five, I’ll still be playing #excited
Tiggy’s picks:
Semifinals: Nadal d. Wawrinka; Djokovic d. Federer
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic
If Rafa does play well enough to make the final, it means he is BACK in which case he WILL beat Nole here.
#VamosRafa
#DontYouOrDoYOu
#WheresRicky
where’s Rafa’s game is the better question
#DoYou
I figured you must know.
Since you picked him, his game must be in Rome, no?
Bump. What?
You two crack me up 😀
Why am I not surprised Tiggy’s gone with Rafa for Rome?
Journos have the luxury of not knowing what we Rafans know, that Kei’s defeat, while tragic, probably saved tennis. Rafa’s existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to them, saves tennis! They don’t want the truth, because deep down in places they don’t talk about at parties, they want Rafa on court. They need him on those courts.
We Rafans use words like “honor”, “code”, “loyalty”. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something special, Rafa. They use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to people (journos) who rise and sleep under the blanket of the tennis pleasure that Rafa provides, and then questions the manner in which he provides it! I would rather they just said “thank you”, and went on their way. Otherwise, I suggest they pick up a racquet, and stand on the baseline. Either way, I don’t give a toss who they pick!
RITB: Did you pick Rafa, Tiggy?
Tiggy: I did the job that…….
RITB: Did you pick Rafa?!!
Tiggy: YOU’RE GODDAMN RIGHT I DID!!
#AFewGoodMen
#Conspirator
#TT
#YoureWelcome
#Humb1e
🙂
Kei’s defeat saved tennis?
^^It’s called satire (okay maybe terrible, but still..), not difficult to spot if you have a funny bone……………
federazzi (esp. closet federazzi) have no funny bone ritb. 🙄
^^Shame really. So much to be said for always looking on the bright side of life………
#MontyPython
Federoozle
https://twitter.com/stu_fraser/statuses/465901659361902592
RT @carole_bouchard: ” Simon on the risks of playing Nadal on clay : “there’s always a spanking possibility”.
#Gillou
Is that PC?
Gillou is exempt from political correctness!
#Gillou-isme
@ hawkeye63 & rafaisthebest
You guys are hilarious! LOL>> 😛
@natashao2013, that’s why we visit tennis blogs, a bit of levity, no? To have a laugh?
I mean, we are surrounded by enough seriousness out there, no? If I want to be serious I will read the Royal Society of Medicine journals or join in the search for the missing Nigerian schools girls! That, m’dear is serious………
Enjoy your day!
Too bad Rafa doesn’t have a sense of humor.
#kidding!
@chloro, our boy loses his sense of humour when he is on court but off it it’s quite pronounced! Just listen to his pressers, and it’s the self-deprecatory kind too……………the best.
That’s what I was talking about :-).
https://twitter.com/Tennis/status/466254958401040384/photo/1
snowdevil will not be happy. 😛
CENTRALE Start 12:00 noon
Marcel Granollers (ESP)
v
[7] Andy Murray (GBR)
H2H
Jeremy Chardy (FRA)
v
[4] Roger Federer (SUI)
H2H
[1] Serena Williams (USA)
v
Andrea Petkovic (GER)
WTA
Not Before 7:30 pm
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
v
Gilles Simon (FRA)
H2H
Not Before
I bet if it was this windy and Rafael Nadal was playing, and serving, he would still get a time violation warning for stopping to let the windy blast pass;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qks5PpcZvAw&feature=youtu.be&t=3m37s
#YesIAmParanoid
Bring it on!!
https://twitter.com/EurosportCom_DE/status/466501847058878464/photo/1
In spite of the swirling wind and dust storm Murray played well and kept cool in horrible conditions. Players should be issued with goggles and masks when it is like this.
Next up for him will be Melzer who’s just beaten Cilic
Cilic most dangerous of those 3 opponents
Not any more he ain’t,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
No. And I say that not knowing who the other two are.
Honestly this Court Centrale has the feel of a Colosseum to it………….expect to see lions unleashed and joining the players on court!