Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time in Rome when they meet again on Friday. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the quarterfinal schedule.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
It was hard to see Nadal losing to Dominic Thiem in the Marid quarterfinals. That happened. But it is even harder to see Nadal losing in the quarterfinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Conditions suit the top-seeded Spaniard better in Rome, where he is a seven-time champion and has dropped a mere six games through two matches against Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov so far this week. Nadal is now 15-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.
Additional good news for the world No. 2 is that Thiem is not the one looming in the quarters this time around. Fognini has also upset Nadal twice on clay, but those victories came in 2015 and the Italian is on a five-match losing streak in the head-to-head series–which he trails 10-3 overall. Nadal and Thiem had been on another collision course in Rome, but Fognini defeated the Austrian 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 in the second round following a straight-set rout of Gael Monfils and preceding a 6-4, 6-4 win over Peter Gojowyczk. This will likely be the end of the road for Italy’s last hope in the tournament, and it may not be competitive. Fognini is 1-10 in his last 11 sets against Nadal, who was ruthless against Shapovalov while losing only five points in eight service games.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) Marin Cilic
Cilic and Carreno Busta will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash once more on Friday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Cilic’s way; 6-0, 7-6(4) on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2016 and 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(0), 7-6(3) in the fourth round of the Australian Open a few months ago.
Carreno Busta’s style of play–which consists of generally few unforced errors but not overwhelming firepower–is conducive to competitive matches, of which he has already played three in Rome. The 11th-ranked Spaniard has advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to three-set victories over Jared Donaldson, Steve Johnson, and Aljaz Bedene. He is now 18-10 for the year, which includes consecutive semifinal showings in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Cilic survived a thriller of his own against Ryan Harrison, outlasting the American in a third-set tiebreaker before making quicker 6-3, 6-4 work of Benoit Paire on Thursday. The fifth-ranked Croat is starting to find his clay-court form and should be able to dictate play to the extent that he can wear down an already fatigued opponent.
Pick: Cilic in 2
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who ya got?
Marin in three and Nadal in two losing 5-7
i see nadal losing 5 games here
I am going with Cilic in 3 sets.
Rafa in 2 sets losing 5-7 games.
PCB in 3
Rafa in 2 easy. Part of me would like to see Fognini win his home tournament but it ain’t gonna happen 🙁 Getting to the quarters in Rome is a very good result for him. I thought he’d lose to Monfils in R1.
Rafa in 3 with one bagel.PCB in three
PCB in 2, Rafa in 2 (easy)
Fognini in 3
Careno Busta in 3.
PCB. Cilic drew that second set longer than should of been…he still has that patellar tendonitis.
Careno Busta is best on clay even though his best results have been on hard “so far”. He is sneaking under the radar here probably due to having such a big hardcourt season and the adjustment back to clay. However, I suspect he might have found his feet again now and Cilic only just beat him in Melbourne. Cilic is stepping it up heding towards RG but I think this one may catch him out before he peaks.
…and as you mention, Cilic is still carrying an injury.
Rafa to get the job done,that’s all. Fognini is so skilled and if there’s a place he can go God mode it’s here in his homeground! He already showed some sparkling tennis against Thiem,but I think he won’t have the baseline consistency to defeat Rafa there. If Fog shows up and plays his very best(a BIG if),we will have an entertaining match,no doubt.
Would love to see Fognini show up and give everyone an entertaining match. If he could keep his focus he could give Rafa a run for his money, but Fog’s track record in Rome isn’t great, and he’s as apt to lose it completely as he is to be inspired by the crowd. He has to go for his shots, and not lose his head when they miss. If he can do that and avoid a total meltdown, I give him a 25% shot of pulling off an upset. Nadal is not at the level he was in MC, from what I’ve seen.
Joe!….For the 2nd straight days u talked about a possible upsets here!Hahahaha….And i bet,if Rafa win again today..the word ‘upset’ will appear again tomorrow & the next & the next…Hehehe…Okay!Okay!..I get it!…
I admit,The Fog is a very dangerous player…He can upped his game all of a sudden..can change direction with such precision..And Rafa maybe will get nervous at first…but,i still think that Rafa will prevail in 2 insyaallah…
Well, I did say it was 25% IF Fog plays well and doesn’t lose it. So I’m not exactly predicting an upset. But Fognini absolutely very dangerous and can hit players off the court when he tries and executes well. Plus, if he really comes to play, the crowd could be a factor. Even against Shapo, I felt the crowd wasn’t really pulling for Nadal. I think a lot of people would like to see him lose on clay, frankly.
Theiem was a +1000 dog and he beat Nadal last week. Fognini is only 700 dog. Still very low chance, but higher than thiem
Are you sure? From what I’ve seen, Rafa is playing even better at Rome. After the loss at Madrid, he looked determined to do well at Rome. I can see his intensity here, stepping onto the court and started serving well and hitting hard with full aggression. The only thing that’s not ideal is his ROS esp when having BP chances. I’ve not seen him served so well for a while now; in fact he serves very well here, better than when he first started the clay season at MC.
You’re right that Nadal is serving well, but the rest of his game is not as good imo, including his ground-strokes. He’s made more uncharacteristic errors than he did in MC. I think his level has tailed off since Madrid, though the conditions suit him better here. It’s just my sense, but I also think he’s feeling the pressure of expectation. It’s not easy when you’re expected to win every match, which is literally the case for Nadal every time he steps onto a clay court.
Nah, he made few UEs, what are you talking about? If anything, I can only see determination in his play. It’s totally different from Madrid, when he looked nervous, because he had the title and 1000 points to defend and losing that meant he would lose the no.1 ranking. Also he wasn’t hitting well his serves and groundstrokes; Moya said he was nervous even in practice!
Losing at Madrid may have relieved him from some pressure, as he’s expected to win every match on clay. He looks very comfortable at Rome, his day sessions make it even better for him, unlike in 2014 when he was given ALL night sessions and he struggled through them playing 3 setters in 3 of his 4 matches, and then, he had to play his only day match in the final, and lost it in three sets! What kind of scheduling was that??
Rafa in two; Cilic in two, most likely three.
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdeDLn2UwAEliVY.jpg
Fognini putting up a good fight,but Rafa fights tremendously to get the break. Vamos!
Rafa breaks. That’ll shut Petchey up a bit as he’s been harping on only about what Fognini can do to Rafa.
Rafa holds; now leads 4:2.
Yess!!..Wooohoooo!…Teach an arrogant dude a lesson today Rafa!!
😂 yes rafa will teach him a lesson soon just wait 😂.
Fognini is up 5-4 don’t worry just wait 🤣.
Yeah yeah Stanley!…I know!i know!…U just couldn’t wait for Rafa to lose….Well,the match is not finish yet!
Noooooooo I want Rafa to win 🤣, I really do 😂.
The match is not over so don’t give up Mira, Rafa will be back 😉🤣.
Fognini just got the break back,he’s playing well. During that 7th game he was telling the crowd to suck it up,how can he be so rude to his home crowd?
What a turnaround,from 1-4 to 5-4. Rafa making many mistakes from the baseline and practically gifted the break 4-4. Fognini will serve out for the set now.
Fantastic comeback from Fabio. He has been the better player from the baseline, and Rafa is not serving well. Let’s see if he can serve out the set.
Let’s see
Dont like the way Rafa plays today, more defensive than anything. He has too much respect for Foggy! His serve is poor, hardly steps inside the court to exert his aggression, just stays behind the baseline to rally all day!
It seems he had used up all his intensity in yesterday’s match! Not looking good now!
Fognini’s actually playing well,but yeah,Rafa’s playing to passive despite the good start. Fog raised his level and Rafa couldn’t step up to the challenge or play with more agression. Hopefully he turns this match around!
Rafa is too defensive, not playing his game! Fabio is playing well but Rafa is allowing him to dictate points which is exactly what Fabio wants… it’s all about Fabio hit or miss, not on Rafa’s racquet! Rafa needs to change that!
F. Fognini wins the 1st set 6-4 but the match is not over…😉
Fabio! Way to go, Fog. What’s happened so far is exactly what I thought was possible (though not likely) if Fognini plays the kind of tennis he’s capable of. Fog is at least as talented as Rafa, and watching this match it’s hard to believe that one is an all time great and the other has never come close to winning a slam. But it shows just how important mental strength is.
Fabio will take heart knowing he’s beaten Nadal on clay before, but now it gets hard because Rafa is going to come back even stronger.
Rafa is going to lose this, it seems he’s wary of Foggy. A very disappointing set of tennis from Rafa when Foggy just plays his usual game, not particularly special. Rafa doesnt offer much resistance to Foggy.
That’s not Fognini’s usual game, Lucky. He’s playing very well. Rafa is having an off day, but it’s also a loss of confidence a bit, I think.
If Rafa doesnt up his level in the second set, he’s going to lose this match!
Don’t give up, Rafa will be back.
Dont understand Rafa’s serve, why he can go from good to bad overnight?
Maybe Rafa’s feeling the pressure of getting the N.1 ranking back,it’s strange indeed.
The truth is that Fognini can push Rafa really hard,especially if Rafa plays with almost no fire on his game like today.
Rafa has started well don’t give up OK.
And Rafa serving poorly and not having any advantage on his own serve makes it difficult to take control. Fabio is motivated while Rafa seems complacent with this situation. Rafa needs to step it up in all aspects of his game!
Rafa staying so far back so he has to do all the running; why cant he move forward immediately after returning serve?
Foggy is going to drop shot him often and makes him runs like crazy. Why Rafa always go CC with his FH and hits right back at Foggy? Why stinge on the FH DTL??
Rafa making life difficult for himself, should have hung on to the service break in the first set to win it, and he would be on his way to victory in the second set.
This match is really on Fognini’s racquet. He’s the one dictating play, and Rafa isn’t doing much to change that dynamic. Nadal may yet win the match, but it will be more Fabio losing it than anything, if the play continues like this.
Fabio starting to go away mentally in this second set. Losing focus and intensity. Triple break point for Rafa.
Rafa finally flattening the backhand and the errors are coming from Fabio racket.
Honestly, the last thing I want to see is another grueling three setter with Rafa losing in the end, because I know Fog will give it his all in the third and Rafa isn’t making any significant changes in his tactics to turn the whole match in his favor…from what I know Fog will let the second set go and then make the third a living hell for Rafa…
Yeah,that’s classic standard from Fognini,did the same against Thiem…
Well done Rafa, second set 6-1.
Now the battle begins.
3rd set 🤔.
Yep, Fabio is a master at winning 3 set matches in which he tanks the 2nd set.
Exactly! I dont understand Rafa’s mentality. Why must he wait till he loses the first set then he decides to up his intensity? Why cant he do like yesterday and game on once he steps inside the court?
I sometimes hope that Rafa is a bit cocky like Djoko, that way he’ll be full of confidence when he steps onto the court. Rafa just shows too much respect for his opponents.
Foggy will give his best in the third set, he knows he has his chances.
lucky, you are right. a bit of swagger will do Rafa a lot of good.
Nadal has plenty of swagger when he’s winning. When he’s not, he loses confidence.
Please give me a break with this! Rafa did not lose confidence losing to Thiem. Moya said it – Rafa is human.
Rafa, please hold from now until the end!
Vamos!
I don’t think Nadal picked up his intensity much in the 2nd set; it was much like the first, but Fog didn’t play as well. But now in the 3rd, Rafa has definitely picked it up. Triple break point again.
Nadal up a break, serving 2-1. This is the crucial game, I think. If he holds he should win the match.
Finally Rafa being more agressive and consolidating the break.
Vamos!
One more break will definitely seal it.
Vamos!
Fognini fatigued; all the spring seems to have gone out of his step. He’s going to have to find something or else this will be over soon.
No! This is part of the Fog’s tactic, Rafa shouldn’t be fooled about it!
Clutch hold. Come on, Fabio!
The shotmaking from Fognini’s racquet this match has been unbelievable.
Joe Smith, Fognini’s shots are not unbelievable enough. 😉 😉 😉
Rafa wins the last 2 sets in style.
46 61 62
Vamos Rafa!
I wouldn’t exactly say Nadal won in style. He mostly won because Fog couldn’t keep up the intensity. Rafa hit a lot of nice shots too, and did some great retrieving. But he was well below the standard he displayed in Monte Carlo, especially on serve.
Not according to Rafa. Rafa said he had to change tactics after the 1st set because he was giving Fog too much opportunity to go for his shots so he (Rafa) played more with his forehand.
You have to see who’s his opponent here, it’s Foggy in his own backyard. Had Rafa begun the match the way he did against Shapo, I would think there would be no contest and Rafa would win in straight sets.
Rafa just had too much respect for Foggy; in the first set Rafa wasn’t doing much, just rallying and hoped that Foggy would lose patience and made errors. Not going to work as it’s proved, Foggy had come to play, not clowning around. It’s only after losing the first set that Rafa became more aggressive and upped his intensity. When he did that Foggy began to feel the pressure and started making more errors.
The last two sets Rafa played more like his MC matches and more like his first two matches at Rome.
I have to add that for Rafa to play aggressive tennis, he has to feel confident, obviously he’s not that confident when facing Foggy,
1 more game Rafa!….C’mon!!
I doubt Foggy is fatigued. He can just up his level at will; Rafa has to serve it out now without any hiccup please!
Well done to Rafa, and to Fog for pushing him a bit. Hard to believe Fabio only managed 3 games after the first set.
Good win after all! Fog’s intensity went down but Rafa played better in the third, served well and placing his shots deep which was the key to his success in this match. Whenever Rafa hit short Fog would punish it! The same is to be expected from Novak tomorrow…
Fortunately Rafa serves it out without hiccup. His first SF at Rome in four years!
Foggy has a full head of hair, how I wish Rafa has that too! Rafa’s sister talking with Foggy’s sister, nice to see.
I saw the third set but recorded the match. I woke up to see Rafa in a third set and couldn’t go back to sleep. Now I can go back and see the match.
Rafa dominated from the second set onward. I am okay with him being pushed and tested. It brings out his best.
Now it’s either Novak or Nishi.
Yess!!…..Well done Rafa!!….And thank u too to Stanley for wishing Rafa win today!heh heh….
And this especially for VR…If u follow this thread today VR!…Just want to wish u a Happy Ramadhan Al Mubarak wherever u r…Hope u fasting today bro!…Oh wait!wait!…is that a nan chicken curry at your upper lip?hahaha..Gotcha!…
Glad that Rafa managed to hold his nerve in the end and closed it efficiently!
Of course that Rafa shouldn’t have slip the advantage he had in the first set,but I found it important for Rafa to be tested before RG,and today he surely was,by a very good Fognini.
Gaviria,
I see it the sane way you do. Now I have to go back and watch the first two sets. But I think Rafa does need to be tested. I was shocked when I woke up and saw the score. Now I have to see it. But Rafa responds when he is down and fighting back is a good thing. He can’t always blow people off the court.
Well done Rafa 😭😭😭, I am crying because I am happy for him 😉.
Well done.
If he plays this way, Novak might win.
N. Djokovic vs Rafa will be interesting, I hope it’s Novak so that we can enjoy the match 😉.
So obvious Nadal was giving the people a show. Federer does it sometimes too. Tanks the first set because the match is a layup for them.
lol! Rafa tank? Watch tennis much?
almost every match, every day. Rafa gifted him the first set. Change of tactics my ass.
Oh baloney! Do you watch tennis at all? Rafa gives up nothing!
Fog played really well and Rafa wasn’t yshbg the right tactics.
It’s insulting to the intelligence of people here to even say something like that.
You know nothing about tennis!
I know exactly when Rafa is playing, when he is struggling, and in form. I know what it looks like when he struggles and loses against Vinolas in 2016. I know what it looks like when he doesn’t show up at all like last week vs. Thiem. I know when he tries his best and loses to Federer. So, I know when he is just warming up in the first set or trying a decoy strategy. Elina Svitolina does it all the time. She is THAT good, she can use the first set to “warm up”. I’m a former athlete, i put 15 miles a day on my tennis shoes, still to this very day.
correction 15 miles a *week
You know nothing! Unbelievable the crap some people post to make themselves feel important!
what you fail to realize is that players thinking ahead to the next match try to disguise their strategy for the film the other coaches will study that night.
Please stop with this nonsense! You are talking utter rubbish!
If Rafa got tested by Foggy so much..wonder how nervous he will be if he sees Novak tomorrow..I am worried about the Novak match a lot irrespective of how Novak is playing now..whenever he sees Rafa or Fed..he comes alive
Yeah!…Agree with u Sanju!
I honestly don’t know what to think about Rafa meeting Novak. Nishi is already up 2-0 in the beginning of this match. He played Rafa tough on clay in the past.
But I don’t want Novak seeing Rafa on the other side of the net and getting motivated.
Right now Nishi is up two breaks in the first set. Novak not looking good right now.
Nny!..I always worried if Rafa were to meet with Novak….But,kei too is in hot form atm…
I’m more concerned about him facing a healthy Nishikori. Djokovic is still up and down. But mainly down.
But like Sanju said ed,Novak will turned a beast mode if the other side of the net is Rafa or Roger..If he this good against Kei..I don’t want to imagine when he’s facing Rafa tomorrow…
Tho,the good thing is he maybe play longer match than our Rafa..
ed,
I hope you are right. Rsfa has played so well in the last year and a half and Novak has been all over the place.
NNY, whether Djoko is motivated or not, what’s more important is how Rafa plays. When Rafa is in top form, he’ll beat Djoko no matter what. Top form Rafa on clay > top form Djoko on clay; furthermore Djoko isn’t in top form yet on clay.
Sanju, Rafa more nervous facing Foggy than facing Djoko. With Djoko he knows what to expect, with Foggy you expect the unexpected. If Djoko is motivated when seeing Rafa across the net, then Foggy is even more motivated doing it in front of his home crowd.
Foggy more a danger than Djoko now because you don’t know what to expect from Foggy. Rafa has played Djoko many times and he certainly knows what to expect. He’ll certainly not underestimate Djoko.
Kei seems to be good for one set only; he couldn’t sustain a high level of play for two sets against the big four guys. Djoko will win this in three sets to face Rafa in the SF.
Hopefully we get a Nadalovic contest,I’ve been hoping for a chance for Rafa to adjust the H2H with Djoko! Hopefully we can have the best match of the tournament,it depends on which version of Novak shows up.
Kei and Djoko doing lots of hard hitting from the baseline and I feel Kei will lose playing like that. He’s not going to beat Djoko from the baseline; should move forward and add in some variations.
lucky, even I can see that and I’m no tennis expert.
I sometimes wonder why these players like to hit the ball right back at their opponents. I thought it’s wise to hit to the open court and make your opponent run to get the ball? I think it’s easier to hit CC than DTL hence players rather hit it CC to their opponents than take more risk hitting DTL.
As expected, Djoko has MP now; Kei can’t match Djoko from the baseline.
Lucky, I’m sure you know this, but DTL is a *much* lower percentage shot. Not only do you have less court (less distance to hit into), but the net is higher. That’s why CC is the default in rallies.
I know, but against a formidable player who may be better than you, if you stay in your own comfort zone and unwilling to move out of it to take more risk, then where are your chances of beating your formidable opponent?
Goffin vs Sasha for example, when he’s 3-2 up in the third set and was leading with a break, he should have turned up the aggression, go for the kill, maybe move inside the court to attack and so gave Sasha no time to defend or hit his formidable ground strokes. Instead he just stayed at the baseline to rally with Sasha and he then lost his own serve. Sasha was serving well and hitting his big ground strokes well in the third set, and he was the one who turned up the heat, hit a few good shots not only to break back but to hold and then break Goffin’s serve again to win the match. The 21 yo was playing better tennis, more gutsy and go for his shots, unlike Goffin.
Both Kei and Goffin are known for taking the ball early and not afraid to step inside the court to attack, but against their more formidable opponents, they chose to stay back and rallied, knowing well their respective opponent was better from the baseline.
I think an attacking player should take more risk, and beat your opponent by being quick and hit to the open spaces whenever possible to make life difficult for your opponents. Most players don’t take risk, hence prefer to go CC hitting back to opponent, hoping for opponent to miss or simply wanting to overpower the opponent.
It’s the going for broke Shapo, who feared nothing, who just went for his shots – the lefty CC BH to the open spaces, that caught his opponents off guard.
So, it’ll be Rafa vs Djoko SF, finally we get that, after Djoko not making it to meet Rafa on at least two occasions this clay season.
Oh s@#$!…Rafa vs Novak tomorrow!
oh no novak tomorrow…
I am not looking forward to this. I only saw the first set of Novak/Nishi because I had to go out. Then I saw the score online.
I am nervous about this. Novak sees Rafa across the net and will start salivating. But Rafa does know what to expect.
Whenever you say you are nervous nny…it usually signals a loss in store
No need to worry my people 🙂
NNY, it’s time Rafa re-exert his authority on clay vs all these tough opponents. Beating top tenners like Thiem, Sasha, Dimi and Goffin, and young challengers like Tsitsipas and Shapo, and then seasoned players like Kei and Foggy, will do his confidence a world of good. Next challenge is Djoko. I was hoping to see Rafa reaching the final in Rome and meet and beat a Delpo there, that’ll complete an almost perfect clay warm ups before the FO. Delpo isn’t there, and if Rafa gets past Djoko, he’ll meet fellow top ten player – either Cilic or Sasha, still will be a good challenge before the FO.
Dkoko said he will embrace the opportunity n will try to play his best tomorrow…is feeling very well and is loving the conditions
Yeah Nny!…heh heh,Rafa think so too!
http://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/55102/rafael-nadal-it-s-better-not-to-play-djokovic-i-prefer-easier-opponents-/
Haha
MA,
I love Rafa’s honesty! We both feel the same way!
But I have to believe that Rafa knew at some
point he would face Novak. So I expect him to come out ready.
Yes Nny!…Rafa always respect Novak & his greatness..Even when Novak still lost in the abyss somewhere in the past..Rafa will always came out with statements that he believes Novak will find his mojo back one day…
And he’s right!Therefore,i believe Rafa always prepared himself the possibility of meeting ‘this’ Novak someday…And you’re right nny!…he will be ready!
Vamos Rafa!!
It’s better for Rafa to meet Djoko on clay than on the HC. They’ll have to meet sooner or later so why not now? If Rafa plays his best tennis, he’ll beat Djoko on clay; but if he stays back and rally with Djoko like he did vs Foggy, then he’s making life difficult for himself.
He plays and serves like vs Shapo than he’ll make life easier for himself; if he engages in baseline rallies like Kei did, then he’s in for a long day.
You expect rafa to win lucky or it’s toss up ?
Novak Djokovic will win tomorrow, guys just enjoy the match or take a vacation.
You’re incredible Stanley! You gave me a good laugh,thanks 😄
You are welcome bro, I am glad you are happy but what I am saying might happen.
I will just enjoy the match.
I expect Rafa to win this, in two or three sets. I don’t expect Rafa to be as nervous as when facing Foggy in his own backyard.
I feel Rafa is prepared to face Djoko on clay, he’s been preparing for it since MC.
Me too Lucky,Rafa will be ready.
TBH,I’m more worried about Rafa facing Foggy than facing Djoko. Foggy had the whole arena supporting him and I do feel Rafa could be affected by that sometimes and got nervous.
I find Rafa’s mentality rather strange, when playing for his country in DC, he’ll play his best no matter it’s not a home tie and with the home crowd supporting their own players. However, he would feel a bit nervous in his own singles matches vs a home hero, I noticed, and had to go the distance to tough it out and sometimes losing it – lost vs Shapo at Montreal last year, and of course lost to Fed at Basel; even had to go the distance vs Dansevic of Canada at Montreal one year and now vs Foggy at Rome. These are just my own observations nd opinions, of course they may not be correct.
Rafa will clobber him. He will be more than ready for this. 6-2; 6-3
You heard it first here
MA
This is Djokovic Mark II who is not the player of yesteryear who could strike the fear of god in his opponents.
ed!…haha…Yeah!This is not the Djokovic of yesteryear!…But,boy!…to see him vs Kei make me really scared!!I swear!!
If I was a rafan I won’t watch the match between Rafa vs N. Djokovic tomorrow because Rafa will break my heart 😭.
Although you can never completely count out Novak, no matter how poorly he’s played in the last year or so. However…. I will be surprised if Rafa loses. It’s taken an insanely high-level-Novak to take down a well-oiled Rafa on clay. Novak is not nearly at that level right now, and hasn’t been at that level for a couple years now. So I agree with Ricky’s prediction. Maybe Novak can take a set, make it competitive? We shall see.
Well said Kevin.
Djoko needed so much effort just to barely got past Kei, and Kei was no Rafa! Whether Djoko remains confident or not when facing Rafa, there’s still something lacking in his game, he fought hard no doubt but Kei wasn’t of Djoko’s caliber and Kei himself was also coming back from injury and had spent many hours on the court already.
We caught a glimpse too of how a top form Kei may play in future ( judging from his first set performance), it’s just that he couldn’t continue with that form for two consecutive sets and hence Djoko could up his level to win the second set.
As long as Rafa isn’t going walkabout during the match, I feel he will edge past Djoko, in straight sets – may be two tight sets or one easy and one tight set. If Rafa goes walkabout, then Djoko will have a chance to win one set.
A top form Djoko needed three sets to beat Rafa in 2014 final (and Rafa was hard done by the poor scheduling when he had to play all night matches before the final), this Rafa > 2014 Rafa and this Djoko < 2014 Djoko. So, Rafa in straight with no walkabouts (he shouldn’t against Djoko his formidable rival).
The only well oiled Rafa that Djoko took down was the one at MC2013 I feel. Rafa hardly well oiled on 2011 clay after losing to Djoko at IW/Miami B2B final. His 2014 form was also questionable after losing at QF to Ferrer at MC and to Almagro at Barcelona, the players he owned all along on clay. His 2015/2016 losses – he was hardly himself in those years.
Nevertheless, not taking any credit away from Djoko, whether Rafa’s clay court tennis is well oiled or not, it’s a formidable task to take him down on clay. Djoko has done well having seven wins against Rafa on clay.