Monte-Carlo…. Madrid…. Rome. The top players in the world—plus plenty of others—are now moving to Rome for their final French Open preparations. It’s another loaded field; one that unexpectedly includes Roger Federer. The Swiss was thought to be playing only Madrid prior to Roland Garros, but that plan has changed and he will join Madrid winner Novak Djokovic, defending champion Rafael Nadal, and familiar foe Dominic Thiem in the Italian capital.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,207,405 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: It was assumed that Federer would not play in Rome, but he was always on the entry list and never officially withdrew. Thus when Friday’s draw ceremony was held, there was Federer’s name in the field of 56. Who knew!?!? The 37-year-old’s draw is mostly favorable, too, because—unlike in Madrid—he avoided Thiem as his 5-8 seed. But that’s not to say a trip to the semifinals will be easy. Federer could face either Borna Coric or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round before potentially running into Stefanos Tsitsipas or Fabio Fognini in the quarters.
Whereas Federer is playing without any kind of pressure whatsoever, Nadal will be desperate to head into Paris with at least one clay-court title under his belt. Surprisingly, the second-ranked Spaniard came up short in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid, not even reaching the final on any occasion. A Federer-Nadal semifinal is possible in Rome, but the second seed is in the same section as Thiem—a brutal draw for both, to be sure.
Djokovic awaits either Denis Shapovalov or Pablo Carreno Busta in his opening match. Both Marco Cecchinato and Philipp Kohlschreiber have upset the current world No. 1 in the past year and could get another shot at him in round three. Juan Martin Del Potro is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Djokovic, but perhaps Daniil Medvedev or Stan Wawrinka is more likely.
Wawrinka has an intriguing opener on his hands against David Goffin, while Medvedev is going up against Nick Kyrgios.
A wide-open second section includes Alexander Zverev, Kei Nishikori, Marin Cilic, and Gael Monfils. Zverev, the 2018 Rome runner-up, is slumping; Nishikori has cooled off following a hot start to the year; Cilic reached the Madrid quarterfinals but withdrew due to illness prior to facing Djokovic; Monfils is playing well when healthy but is always a question mark from a physical standpoint. The door could be open for in-form Italian Matteo Berrettini or the winner of a first-round battle between Grigor Dimitrov and Jan-Lennard Struff.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Lorenzo Sonego over (11) Karen Khachanov. If ever a match against Lorenzo Sonego constitutes a nightmarish draw, this is it. Not only does Sonego have home-court advantage in front of what is always a raucous Italian crowd in Rome, but he also just beat Khachanov in straight sets at the Monte-Carlo Masters. Moreover, Khachanov has been a disaster this season. The Russian was an alternate at the Nitto ATP Finals last year, but in 2019 he is saddled with a losing record (8-11).
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Matteo Berrettini, Guido Pella, Radu Albot, Laslo Djere
Cold: Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, Karen Khachanov, Marin Cilic, Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Alex de Minaur, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kyle Edmund, Richard Gasquet
Quarterfinal predictions: Stan Wawrinka over Novak Djokovic, Gael Monfils over Guido Pella, Roger Federer over Fabio Fognini, and Rafael Nadal over Dominic Thiem
Semifinals: Monfils over Wawrinka and Nadal over Federer
Final: Nadal over Monfils
[polldaddy poll=10317054]
WWW?
Very bold of you, I’ll go:
Novak over Stan
Nishikori over Zverev
Federer over Fognini
Nadal over Thiem or Khachanov
SF:
Djokovic over Nishikori
Nadal over Federer
F:
Nadal over a slightly tired Djokovic
I agree that Ricky is being bold. But if Nadal does make the final, the one person he doesn’t want to see across the net is Djokovic. I think Novak would be at maximum motivation for that one, to keep the mental edge going into RG.
Still picking Nadal, huh Ricky? Monfils?! I don’t see either making the final.
Cant see Nadal going through Thiem,Tsits,Joker just to win Rome.. I think he bows out in the QF.
Djoker/Thiem to win Rome
Fognini it’s more likely than tsitsipas.
Is*
That sounds good, Vmk1
I liked their Madrid match. Contrasting styles – I didn’t pick it though. Should have thought of that, maybe. Nole v Thiem final.
Or maybe both Nole and Rafa are smart and bail out a bit early.
Are you serious? Thiem may be tired by now, playing singles and doubles in Madrid, getting to SF in singles and final in doubles, after winning at Barcelona. Rafa is getting better and better whilst Thiem not so after their Barcelona match.
As for Tsitispas, can’t see him going far here at Rome, he’s already having tired legs in the Madrid final; and, he’s playing singles and doubles again in Rome! A bit crazy imo.
I think it may be Fed vs Foggy in the QF, and Fed to meet Rafa in the SF.
Very bold predictions. I think everyone would think that the finalist from the top will be nole but I’m not sure. I think we will see a surprise finalist like wawrinka, monfils or even medvedev. From the bottom it will probably be nadal or thiem. The third favorite is fognini, but Federer and tsitsipas can surprise us. Anyway, I think it would be:
QF
Djokovic d. Medvedev
Monfils d. Nishikori
Federer d. Fognini
Nadal d. Thiem
(Not sure about the last two)
SF
Djokovic d. Monfils
Nadal d. Federer
F
Nadal d. Djokovic
Very similar to what I picked. Final is the same. As a Nole fan I’d rather not see him try back to back masters finals before on clay – if he has RG circled on his to do list. But he knows his game plan. Rafa and Nole both could suffer contesting The Rome final. But the chips shall fall where they do. I’m already thinking about Wimbledon. Crazy to think too far ahead. Novak looked triumphant in his Madrid win.
My head is still full of GOT season 8, episode 5. Pardon the over-dramatic speak. lol
it is just a question what is Novak planning for Rome? If he wants this tournament, he wins it. All other predictions are not relevant.
Nole is not a God on clay. Let”s be serious. But Monfils seems to be a strange choice, Ricky.Are you serious? 🙂
Interesting picks from Ricky. Wawa over Djokovic could happen, he’s always been a tough match up for the Djoker. Monfils played 2 great sets v Fed in Madrid but is he making a habit of not waking up until the 2nd set? If so doubt he makes the final. Even Thiem ought to be a bit tired by now (he’s been going deep and played the doubles final in Madrid) so if Rafa finds his best form he should beat him. Gotta give Nadal the edge v Fed in Rome if they meet in the semis. And Nadal v Monfils? Well, if Gael gets to the final he’ll be running on fumes – and you can bet Nadal will make him run. These picks are not as crazy as you guys think.
I’m interested to see whether Djoko could make it B2B finals. It’s unlike in 2011, now that he’s eight years older. Perhaps, he may want to avoid meeting Rafa or whoever here and conserves his energy for the FO.
I think Rafa will be eager to prove himself here, getting a victory here may mean a lot for his confidence. He’s not playing badly, unlike in MC; he’s improving tournament by tournament, it’s just that he couldn’t find his consistency yet. I think by the FO, he should be able to play with his usual consistency.
Great draw…..will be a great week of tennis tv on TC….GOAT!
No one will beat Djokovic in current form.
Alexander Zverevdid better than expected. I reckon he can warm up again
Juan Martin Del Potro only needs a few matches to get going
Karen Khachanov needs a lot of match play. He’s an out-and-out grinder that will eventually start peaking with more matche and you never know when he will peak.
Marin Cilic is warming up and will be pleased with his decision to sidestep Djokovic in Madrid.
I was going to have Monfils ,but changed my mind to Zverev going far.
Also Cilic,both those players are warming up and have good records here.
Monfils I just don’t trust to go far,he loses too many sets and could be on fumes.
I’ve Nole winning ,picked that before the Madrid final .
I was right about Monfils, but Zverev is still a question mark
Did Monfils just throw that match??
Oh course he did, he has a history of thrown matches. He takes his appearance fee and heads home to prepare for FO
Masters are required for players in the top 40 so don’t give appearance fees.
Rome clay suits Rafa. In the past he would mostly arrive tired and this time around I guess he will not be spent and will be eager to play! I predicted a while ago that Rafa might be reaching his top form in Rome just in time for the RG around the corner.
I personally did not give any chance to Rafa winning Madrid title even before I’ve seen him playing in Madrid. The conditions there are just not made for Rafa’s style.
I will reiterate what I stated before: even if Rafa doesn’t win the title in Rome it will mean nothing for the RG prospect. These tournaments are important for match play and building of form, not that Rafa has to prove anything. True it would be good for Rafa’s confidence to win the title on clay, but we all know Rafa prefers not being called ‘the favorite’ to win RG! So, let the the pundits and tennis experts talk the talk and put Novak, Thiem even Tsitsipas ahead of Rafa, Rafa will walk the walk!
Vamos Champ!!!
All true. Love what Rafa said about Rome in his last presser “I’ve won Rome, oh I don’t know, six or seven times.” Try eight! Go for nine! I wonder what it’s like, to win a tournament so many times you lose count? RG made a video of Rafa commenting on his RG finals. When he got to 2007 he said I really don’t remember much about that one. Slam titles are a Really Big Deal to players. I wonder how well the Big Three remember each of their winning finals?
True. What Rafa needs is match play and he’s improving tournament after tournament. All he needs now is to get back the consistency so that he’ll play more like that second set against Tsitsipas, consistently throughout a match, and match after match.
Rafa doesn’t need to be the favourite to win any title, he just needs to be a genuine contender for the title.
Monfils has already gone out in R1.
Hi guys!
My assessment regarding Rafa is that he badly needs a run to the final in Rome. After going out to play the SA hard court swing,which again proved to be a bad decision IMO, Rafa couldn’t prepare as he wanted for the clay season,and he’s yet to find his usual consistency (FH lacking pace and accuracy,movement looks way slower compared to the beggining of the season,even the serve’s level fluctuating from set to set). As it stands right now,it’s getting way more tougher for Rafa to come back from injury,not only physically but also from a mental point of view. It would be very hurting for his confidence if he’s entering RG without at least a final on clay this season,so let’s hope for the best.
Vamos Rafa!
My feelings exactly about playing at Acapulco, esp when he had some minor wrist issue and couldn’t train for five days before the tournament started. We don’t know whether playing at Acapulco really affected his knees leading to the tendinitis flare up at IW, but it certainly won’t help when he played for three hours on the HCs against Kyrgios before losing.
Yeah, he reaching at least the final here will do his confidence some good, even though winning it makes it better and sweeter. It’s quite frustrating seeing that he could play the way he played in set two against Tsitsipas but just couldn’t do it consistently throughout a match, and match after match.
Just watched Goffin spank WaWa’s backside. Couldn’t make up mind if Warwriika threw the match or not in order to save his energy for RG: he didn’t look particularly concerned. If that was the case it is not fair to the tournament directors nor to the crowd who have paid good money to see the match
I predict Federer goes out immediately to Sousa. Sousa is an extremely good clay courter. If this were Madrid, I would think otherwise. But given the conditions, I see Sousa coming through that one. And as someone who wants what’s best for Fed, I actually think it would be a good think for him to immediately lose in rome. I can’t inagine it would be great for him to grind all week at Rome, and then have to grind at RG. I think Wimby is his only realistic shot of getting one more major title, and he should want to be as fresh as possible for that.
I think Rafa’s knee issue is going to act up especially now that he is older. It is something that never truly goes away. I don’t think that it had anything to do with his scheduling. Rafa did not play in Cincy last year to protect his body and he still had a knee injury at the USO. Then after taking the rest of the year off, it flared up at I/W. I think Rafa has done well to cut back on his schedule. One cannot help but be concerned this last time because Rafa had not played much. It’s also harder to recover as he gets older.
I think Rafa does need a title. Hopefully he can get it in Rome but I am not counting on it. I have just accepted the fact that this injury in I/W may interfere with his clay season. Rafa had a great chance to get another title in MC but just couldn’t get it done.
He has a tough draw in Rome possibly meeting Thiem in the quarterfinals. Winning titles gives confidence. Rafa has not gotten there yet. Rome does suit his game more than Madrid.
One match at a time!
NNY, at the USO last year, Rafa had to grind from match to match – against Bashi, against Khachanov and then against Thiem- hence his knees gave way. At Acapulco this year, he had to grind against Kyrgios of all people! So, it’s the grinding on the HCs that’s the problem.
Had Rafa served like in AO2019, he could’ve finished his matches at the USO and at Acapulco quicker and avoided all the grinding. Too bad for Rafa, after his AO2018 retirement mid match due to knee problem, his serve wasn’t the same anymore after coming back from that injury, therefore he had to grind so much to win his matches, on the HCs in particular (oh and sometimes on grass too – that match vs Delpo at Wimbledon come to mind).
If Rafa could find the AO2019 game again on the HCs, then he will play shorter points and may win his matches quickly thus avoiding the unnecessary grinding.
Several people seem to think Nadal is getting better with each match/tournament. I don’t see it, though I did see improvement from his level in his first couple matches in Barcelona, which was quite low. However, in his three losses so far, I think don’t think he played poorly (he disagrees about the Fognini match); his opponents just played better. I think it is more likely than not that Rome will end the same way for him.
One guy who could beat him is Federer, who really has improved with each clay-court match, though he’s only played 3. Fed had two match points against Thiem so obviously was very close. His level in the first set of that match was, imo, about as good as we’ve seen from any player on clay this season. Can he bring that level consistently enough to win on clay in Rome or Paris? I don’t know, but it seems a lot better possibility than most people seem to think it is.
Sorry, I meant to say Nadal’s level in his first two matches in Monte Carlo (not Barcelona) was very low.
You forget, in Rome Fed has to grind more as it is slow clay. At Madrid, the court there plays like a hard court. Unless Fed could play like Tsitsipas did in that Madrid SF, but I doubt he could, because he’s much older than Tsitsipas, and Rome is slow clay.
If it’s Rome instead of Madrid that Fed played Thiem, I think Thiem would win in straight sets.
I don’t think the slower surface will mean that Fed can’t play an attacking game at a top level. We’ll soon find out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fed make a deep run here. Like everyone, I would love to see him meet Rafa in the semis.
Joe- I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if Fed can make a decent run. However, I would be less surprised if Fed goes out to Sousa or Coric. Especially Coric. Coric has wins over Fed on surfaces that were much more favorable to Fed. That doesn’t bode well for a court that arguably favors Coric’s game and does not favor 2019 Fed’s game. There’s no question that we should never be surprised to see Fed make a run at any tournament in the world, even at his age. But at a tournament like Rome, he could so easily lose to guys like Sousa and Coric. People underestimate Sousa- he is so tough on clay. I am shocked that he was able to take Fed to 3 sets on grass in 2017. It’s just so much harder to put guys away on slower clay, especially fast guys like those two. We saw serve and volliers have success in clay back in the day, i.e. Sampras at Rome 1994, McEnroe at RG 1984, Edberg at RG 1989, etc. But in the modern day, with the athleticism so much better and he racquets and strings so much more powerful, it’s just so hard to win that way on clay. If Fed can serve EXTREMELY well, with a very high first serve %, then he has a decent chance to make a run. But I’ll be less surprised if he goes out today or in the next round.
Rafa didn’t play poorly but he also didn’t play well! He played well for a set at best, so it’s improvement over Barcelona because he didn’t lose in straight sets. Furthermore, Madrid played like it’s a hard court because of the altitude, it’s not slow like MC and Barcelona, and Rafa did better at Madrid, not losing in straight sets to an all out attacking player.
It’s still clay.Rafa doesn’t mind fast hard courts,prefers them.
The ball does fly more at altitude,but why should that bother him so much?
A slow low bouncing clay court might even be an advantage to Fed ,esp if damp.
I’d still find it hard to pick Fed to beat Rafa on any clay court.
Just look at Rafa’s results at the various clay Masters and you’ll see the difference.
From 2009 when the Madrid Masters started to be played on clay, Rafa had won four of them from 2009-2018; in the same time frame, Rafa had won 7 MC and 5 Rome Masters. He also won 7 Barcelona 500 titles.
It’s not like he’s poor there at Madrid, just not as good compared to the other clay Masters and Barcelona.
Well, it’s certainly damp in Rome today! 🙁 Maybe it’ll benefit Fed IF they manage to get his match in. Won’t do Rafa any good but he should be able to beat Chardy on any court. Doubt Djoko will play today which means he’ll have to play two a day at some point unless they hold the final until Monday.
Frankly I don’t see Fed losing to Sousa on any surface.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that Rafa was ill coming to Madrid, had a virus and was even considering skipping Madrid but in the end decided to play. Being ill means he was unable to practice and also may be the reason of his bad & slow movement on the court.
I agree that Rafa did not play well in Madrid or one can also say that Tsitsipas played better. Strange how these Fedfans refuse to recognize that Rafa did not play well but rather insist that Tsitsipas played better! I know that it’s always the other way around when Fed is concerned: Fed was not himself, Fed played badly, bla bla…why is it so difficult to say that Rafa played badly rather than stressing out how his opponent played better?..
Because I don’t think Nadal played badly against Thiem or Tsitsipas. Even Rafa didn’t say he played badly in those matches (though he did say he was terrible against Fog). Of course I don’t think he played his best in any of those matches, but that’s part of the point. He hasn’t shown his 2017 form yet this year, and to me it’s a real question whether he’s capable of it anymore, or if age and injury have taken their toll. If it’s the latter, then it’s far from clear that we should be expecting him to win in Rome or Paris.
Joe, Rafa could play like the second set against Tsitsipas, his game is there, it’s a matter of consistency. If at Madrid, his worst clay surface, he could play that way, he would only play better at Rome, a surface that suits him better.
He’s not injured, and if he could play like he did at the AO, how much is he older now after only four or five months? It’s a matter of his confidence, confidence that his body is able to withstand the grinding on clay, after the knee injury.
Also, I feel he doesn’t want to get injured again esp during the clay season, so that may weigh heavily in his mind. As we’re approaching the FO now, I don’t see why Rafa won’t give his best when he’s there.
Rafa played well v Thiem, just not well enough. He didn’t play “as well as he wanted to” v Tsitsi. He’d practiced earlier while it was warm and the cold threw him off a bit and he “wasn’t doing damage” with his forehand. In addition Tsitsi was playing very well. Never saw Rafa lose that kind of match on clay before though, even at Madrid.
Well, Lucky, I could say that Fed clearly can play top tier on clay, because his first set against Thiem was probably good enough to beat anybody. But I assume you wouldn’t say, based on that, that he’s the man to beat. Neither would I: he has to show that he can do it consistently, or consistently enough to advance to the late rounds and beat the top guys. Same applies to Rafa.