Rome final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Djokovic warming up for his match

One of the top two players in the world will head into the French Open fresh off a Masters 1000 title in Rome. Sunday’s final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic also provides Djokovic one last opportunity to lift one of the clay-court swing’s three winner’s trophies.

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will be squaring off for the 41st time in their careers when they clash in a marquee final at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Sunday.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 22-18, including a much more dominant 13-3 on clay. Djokovic, however, has won three in a row over the Spaniard since losing last summer’s U.S. Open title match. They most recently faced each other earlier this spring on the hard courts of Miami, where the Serb dominated 6-3, 6-3. In fact, he has won six consecutive sets at Nadal’s expense and none of those six has been more competitive than 6-4.

Djokovic’s Miami triumph extended his record to 11-9 against Nadal in finals. They have collided a record 21 times at Masters 1000 events, with Djokovic having won 12 of those meetings. Eleven of those 21 have come with a title on the line, and Djokovic holds a 6-5 edge in such encounters. Nadal is 3-1 against Djokovic in Rome, including 2-1 in Rome finals.

The route to this latest championship installment of the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry was a circuitous one for both men, to say the least. Nadal has spent 10 hours and four minutes on the court through four matches despite needing only one hour and 22 minutes to overwhelm Grigor Dimitrov 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinals. That was preceded by three-set battles against Gilles Simon, Mikhail Youzhny, and Andy Murray. Djokovic held off Radek Stepanek in straight sets before requiring three to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Ferrer, and Milos Raonic.

Both players have endured up-and-down but for the most part productive 2014 campaigns. Djokovic is 23-3 with back-to-back titles in Indian Wells and Miami before a wrist injury put a momentary dent in his clay-court progress. Nadal is 34-5 with three titles, including one in Madrid after hiccups at the quarterfinal stage in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.

In a three-out-of-five showdown, for example at the French Open, this one may favor Nadal–especially with Djokovic coming off a three-hour slugfest against Raonic. In a more condensed battle, however, the No. 2 seed should be able to execute the offensive tactics that have worked so well against Nadal in the past for the necessary two out of three sets.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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4 Comments on Rome final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Chloro You can be pretty certain the decision was driven by the TV companies. All the more reason for the tournament officials not bow to their demands if it means throwing Rafa to the wolves –.otherwise known as the ratings war. Serves them right they got a damp squib for the SF on Saturday night – not Rafa’s fault.

    The gate revenue is irrelevant. It’s TV revenue that counts. The top players must get sick of being treated like performing animals in the circus no matter how much they are earning in prize money.

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