Rogers Cup SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Raonic vs. Pospisil

It’s a dream semifinal lineup for Canada, with two of its own joining Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal for Saturday action. A surprising matchup on the bottom half of the Montreal draw pits Milos Raonic against Vasek Pospisil.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Djokovic and Nadal will be squaring off for the 36th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Rogers Cup on Saturday night. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-15, but Djokovic has won 11 of their 16 hard-court meetings. They have faced each other twice this season, with Djokovic ending Nadal’s Monte-Carlo reign courtesy of a 6-2, 7-6(1) victory in the title match before the Spaniard earned revenge with an epic 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 triumph in the French Open semis.

Although this is by no means his best tournament, Nadal has been in outstanding hard-court form in 2013. The world No. 4 captured the title in Indian Wells and has remained undefeated on hards for the season thanks to straight-set scalps this week of Jesse Levine, Jerzy Janowicz, and Marinko Matosevic. Nadal is the only one of the four Montreal semifinals who has not dropped a set, while Djokovic surrendered one to Denis Istomin during a disappointing third-round performance. That was sandwiched in between blowouts of Florian Mayer and Richard Gasquet. The top-ranked Serb is 42-6 for the year; Nadal is an outrageous 46-3.

Nadal may have a slight edge in current level of play, but–as their past history suggests–surface seems to be the most important factor in this rivalry. The eight-time Roland Garros champion is 13-3 lifetime against Djokovic on clay and a mere 7-12 on all other surfaces. Nadal has played unusually aggressive so far this week, a strategy that propelled him to his lone U.S. Open title in 2010 and one that he must employ again to have chance versus Djokovic. It’s a more difficult tactic to implement, though, against an opponent like Djokovic who can consistently keep his groundstrokes deep in the court and with plenty of pace. Nadal had enough trouble with Djokovic on clay earlier this season, so the advantage should go to the two-time defending champion of this event.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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(WC) Vasek Pospisil vs. (11) Milos Raonic

It will be an all-Canadian semifinal when Raonic and Pospisil clash for the first time in their careers at the ATP level on Saturday afternoon. They have played one another four times as professionals, three times on the Futures circuit and once in a Challenger event. Pospisil leads the head-to-head series 3-1, including 2-1 on hard courts. They have not met since 2010, when they split a pair of hard-court matches.

It has been a dream run for Pospisil, who needed a wild card just to get into the main draw before showcasing a flair for the dramatic. He upset an in-form John Isner in a third-set tiebreaker, crushed Radek Stepanek, edged Tomas Berdych in another third-set tiebreaker, then got a first-set retirement from Nikolay Davydenko. On fire right now in the immediate aftermath of a Challenger title in Vancouver, the world No. 71 will likely be seeded for the U.S. Open if he wins this one. Raonic, meanwhile, is finally heating up after a relative rough patch on clay and grass. Montreal’s No. 11 seed had been 2-5 in his last seven matches prior to this week, but he is back on track thanks to defeats of Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Ernests Gulbis.

Raonic has never played in a Masters semifinal, but he has been to the quarters on two previous occasions (Toronto and Cincinnati last summer). Pospisil, of course, has never been anywhere close to this stage of such a tournament. Furthermore, an emotional Pospisil has used a raucous crowd to fuel his amazing trip in Montreal. He won’t get the same support against a fellow Canadian in Raonic, who has relied on a huge serve, some opponents’ gifts (from Gulbis), and some controversy (against Del Potro). Against a more experienced player with the fans not entirely on his side, this may be where the dream ends for Pospisil.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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240 Comments on Rogers Cup SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Raonic vs. Pospisil

  1. Anyone else feel Ferrer is fading a bit? Apparently he’s picked up an injury, unheard of.
    Andy has megga points to defend at the USOpen so if he fails to defend and If Rafa does well…..eek!
    As far as the semis are concerned I think Nole has more on the line than Rafa so am going with Nole in 3. Should think Raf will be well pleased he’s got to the semis. Way past my bedtime so hope it’s a brilliant match for all you fans of both players.
    And stop scoffing you lot, I can hear you from here…;)
    As far as the other match goes, really want Pops to win but am going for Raonic in 3.

    • Yes, very happy with Rafa’s showing so far. He will be #3 when the new rankings are announced on Monday. I do not expect him to win but am hoping he does. I am staying up for this one…………will be scoffing too!

      Vamos Rafa!

  2. Rafa has clearly been testing out new strategies this week, and will continue to do so next week, so this is a hard one to call. Nole has certainly not put his heart and soul into his matches so far – still cant decide if he is sandbagging or his form has really dropped off in spite of his bravado about being “As close to perfection………” after the Gasquet match.

    I’m plumping for Rafa in 3

    It will be intriguing to see who does prevail. I can’t see either Raonic or Popsi upsetting Nole or Rafa in the final!

  3. Have to agree w/clayqueen…Rafa just not ready for a hard court win up in Canada today, and Joker actually has more to prove this year. Joker in straight.

  4. I havent seen any of Djoker’s matches. So cant really call upon this one. I saw Rafa’s against JJ. Though being competitive, both the players looked way off from their best touch. Rafa’s serve strategy though was the plus point.
    Rafa will have to serve reallly well today against Nole. If Nole has the tendency of breaking someone’s serve at will, it’s of Rafa.
    I’m hoping for this match to be worth the tick in an otherwise dissapointing tournament.

  5. Djokovic has the Cincy title in his sights which would make him the first person since 1990 to win the Golden Masters accolade. So, with the USO also on the horizon, he might well be reluctant to bust his guts against Rafa tonight.

    • to continue my theme…………..if Rafa can come out strongly and win the lst set, the rest might be easier than we’ve been thinking.

    • Why is it called a Golden Masters? Is there a gold medal masters Novak has I am not aware of? Seems to me more accurate to say a Career Masters Title, just as there is a Career Slam, with Golden applied when you also have an Olympic gold medal. Answers please.

  6. Rafa has promised to fight: “I am happy the way that I am playing this week. I am gonna fight for the match tomorrow. I am excited to play against a very tough opponent, one of the best, the best today. I need to play my best tomorrow if I want to have any chance.”

    Keep your mind sharp, stay strong and fight bravely, Rafa!!!

  7. Rafa clearly thinks he has a chance! Which means he has a good chance!!!
    Anyway, I am cool about it either way. Main thing is how he plays. The big prize is USO. But if he beats Nole, at least we would be spared the silly question from morons asking when did Rafa last beat Nole on a non clay surface!

  8. well well well..enjoyed reading the previews above by Ricky and fellow rafa fans….

    I think rafa is definitely on the right track but I am not sure if eh can show enough improvement in one day. His performance agaisnt matosevic was tactically a good preparation for novak but rafa is making too many errors. The balls move through the air very quickly here and I noticed that rafa is having problems dealing with flat forehands hit to his forehand…Matosevic had success using that shot…Rafa did not control it well..

    Rafa’s ROS has been the stand out part for me…he is taking the ball much earlier…he was experimenting with different return positions in the second set against matosevic though so I am not interested in seeing what he does against novak…My guess is that he will start the match returning on the baseline and if that fails badly, he’ll retreat and try to send in deep returns. .. forehand and backhand have been aggressive but he seriously needs to cut down the errors…

    USO’s preparations are well on track… but for this match, lack of time makes rafa a clear underdog..novak was brilliant yesterday so I guess it will be novak in 2 most prob…IF rafa can cut down the errors, he is in with a decent chance 🙂 VAMOSSSSS

    • Caveat: Reeshad has not taken a set off Novak since 2007, so let’s not read too much into yesterday’s whitewash. It is clear Reeshad enters the court with a white flag held high each time he plays Novak.

  9. Argh ** I AM interested in seeing (line 3 2nd para)

    Ricky, you have not read enough rafa pressers if you have not heard this one before lol…I have certainly heard/read rafa say this for multiple opponents

  10. oops, that was dumb of me ! lol… I wsa trying to figure out what particular part of taht phrase made you say that because rafa says this so often ..lol

  11. not interested as such in the other one but I am going the underdog Pospisil.. he has been really brave this week ans he’l pull this one off..

    Pospisil in 3

  12. Nole once again gets a cake draw at cincinnati, i am pissed now ! gasquet as a potential qtr finalist and either ferrer/delpo in the semi…delpo is injured so not sure if he even makes it there !

    fedal qtr final seeded, winner potentially taking on murray in the semi…

    Gulbis-murray rematch seeded in rnd 2 !

  13. Vamos, Rafa!!! Highly anticipated match!!! I know Rafa will bring out his best! I really want him to win but I believe Rafa wont either bcos he might want to try his new game moves in this match and use it as a barometer for preparing for the bigger prize: US Open!!!

    Go Rafa, go, go, go!!!!

    VAMOS!!

  14. @vamosrafa
    Yeah. the Cincy draw looks like the one at Wimbledon. Fed has the toughest path.. Fish, Haas, Rafa, Andy & Nole.

  15. That Cincy draw has me furious! Unbelievable! But I can’t really focus while Rafa is still in this tournament.

    I don’t think Rafa is quite ready to meet Djoker especially on hard court. But I do think that Rafa is heading in the right direction with his game. I think he has his eye on the USO and wants to be sure that he is match ready.

    The way Djoker played in his previous matches has nothing to do with how he will be in this one. He always brings his best with Rafa. He would love to get the win after that loss at RG. So I expect him to come out playing well. Rafa’s serving will be crucial in this match, given Djoker’s strong ROS. I do agree with vamosrafa that he’s making too many errors. But this is the way it always is with Rafa when he has come back from a layoff. It’s part of him trying to get the rhythm and timing on his shots.

    deucy,

    I don’t think Murray is going to let Gulbis beat him again. He will be ready this time. But the draw is absolutely infuriating.

  16. Well there were few posters here like Rafsisthebest who said take it to the bank tht Rafa will beat Novak when she posted on Monday..now all of a sudden Rafa is not ready to play Novak

    God atleast stay consistent to your words and statements

  17. I feel just like 2010 Rafa will lose n semis today and will not do much in Cincy but will make a dep run in USO (atleast semis or final)

    and yeah the Cincy draw is an absolute joke..its too loaded on 1 side

  18. abhirf, yup…fed’s path is ridiculously tough ! so easy match… nole got so lucky because both delpo and ferrer are injured and ferrer has never been an obstacle …gasquet is the easiest possible qtr finalist

  19. wow great start rafa ! opening game, 2 points gifted by nole (2 DF) and 2 points very well played by rafa…

    Rafa is still nervous though…not quite aggressive with his strokes but did extremely well to play 5 points in a row quite well ! just sustain this break VAMOS

  20. Rafa’s giving more height to his backhands right now than he was doing it against matosevic , in other words he is playing it safer but I am glad he played his best backhand on 15-40 down ! Rafa will surely settle in…JUST DONT GIVE THIS BREAK BACK RAFA…

    and before i post this, BOOM ACE 😀

  21. thank God you are here abhirf, I was desperately looking for company lol….

    NNY, nadline, RICKY, atul , holdserve, monalysa and all rafans where are you??

  22. Finding it difficult to rate Nole’s game at the moment. Mix of great and rubbish.
    Rafa is playing quite aggressively though with great serve.
    And here, Nole double faults for the umpteenth time to give another break to Rafa.

  23. Vamos!!! Am still perplexed. Rafa takes it to Djoko on HC. Since Djoko became the Djokovic, Rafa has taken the match the distance in IW,Miami, Australia,USO while he has gone down in str sets in Rome, Madrid and MC!

  24. EXCELLENT last game from rafa, momentum was changing and rafa produced great stuff to stop that…. rafa outplayed nole in set 1 but I must admit momentum is slowly swinging djo’s way..rafa must stop it…

    MUCH BETTER length on returns from rafa today..he has not allwoed djo to punish short returns like in the past matches

  25. 100% agreed with Ricky, rafa and djo have made each other so much better ..

    once again. the ball spread shows rafa has hit 56% of shots to nole’s forehand ! good tactic 🙂

  26. I am not concerned about conserving energy.. nobody is going to be short of energy here, these two just have too much of it ! lol just want rafa to WIN

  27. Holdserve, Rafa was very aggressive in the 1st set till 5-2. Was up 2 breaks, got broken once but then served out the set in the 2nd attempt. Nole double faulted 5 times, once on break point down..that helped Rafa too. Key takeaway was Rafa’s great serving almost USO 2010 level though not yet at that level

  28. I was mentioning rafa’s 2nd serve ROS throughout the week , and look how dominating he has been in that department..djo has won only 38% of 2nd serve points ! though 5 of them have been doubles faults but still rafa is also packing harder punches on 1st serve returns…

    30-30 ! now COME ON….nole looks vulnerable so keep up your level of play .. BRK pnt saved 🙁

  29. Vamosrafa, I woke up when when the scoreline was at 2-1 with Rafa up a break. Can u brief me on how Rafa saved those break points early?

  30. holdserve, rafa has played the big points really well..he served himself out of trouble on various occasions in set 1 ..he is also keeping great length on return of serves off both wings and I am satisfied with the aggressivess shown by rafa’s groundies…he is still making more errors than a top notch rafa would but this has been compensated by djokovic making more than usual erros, esp double faults (5 in set 1)…. I am gutted rafa could not convert break point in the last game 🙁

  31. Nole playing much better now and servng better.

    Rafa has started making many errors off his BH wing

    This will go 3 and Nole has the advantage

    Bt atleast for Rafans and Rafa, positive thing is he took a set off, has made it competitive , did not get straight setted. I am sure he will take something positive out of it

  32. surprisingly, rafa is fairly dominant on serve ! 67% first serves in , 70% 1st serve points won,
    61% 2nd serve points won.. 4/5 break points saved… keep this up rafa and you’ll surely have your chances

  33. Rafa has not been able to take full advantage of the aggressive service returns…he is making more forehand errors while punishing short balls than a top form rafa would make…now this is a huge positive for rafa already ! with more practice, he’l get sharper heading into the open…. back to the match though …hold rafa !

  34. Yeah, Rafa is playing well, he is serving quite well and his groundies look impressive. Of course there is more work to be done but I like what I see so far!!!

    Vamos, Rafa!!!

  35. atul , just read your post….well rafa was down 0-40 at 2-1…he saved one with a good serve, saved the 2nd with an aggressive line-licking cross court backhand which djoker could not return..the third one I cannot remember exactly but I think it was an error from nole..

  36. This is the BEST I have ever seen rafa return against novak ! TOLD YOU guys he had done serious homework on his ROS….. OH MY POINT OF THE MATCH.. greattt stuff from both.. now that had nole screaming and smiling ! Positive point from rafa though…keep this up RAFAEL

  37. NO NO NOOOOO !!! he was playing the game sooo well WTH happened there 🙁 that missed forehand at 40-0 seemed to put rafa off his rhythm…worst possible way to get broken…we are heading to set 3

    • vamosrafa,

      I am hoarse from screaming. That was it when Rafa missed that forehand. Up 40-0 and gets broken. Sound familiar?

      He went off after that. So now on to set 3. I really wanted Rafa to win this in 2.

      My nerves are shot.

  38. So this is becoming a trend in Rafa Nole HC matches. Rafa takes set 1 only for Nole to come roaring back! Would be pleasantly surprised if Rafa takes this!! Vamos Rafa!!!

  39. what an opportunity wasted to get the break back…at least he should have made nole work to save those BP…

    anyway, rafa is playing really well in my opinion…he can definitely take this match if he avoids such lapses…its a 50-50 for me

  40. Rafa is playing much better than I could have expected. He has certainly gone toe-to-toe with Djoker. Djoker’s not that sharp either. He has been missing a lot of shots that he would normally make. But Rafa has done so well considering he is not match ready. Too many errors though. Just as we were concerned about.

  41. Gosh I can now feel what opponents feel against Rafa on clay!! This is incredible. You feel Rafa has no time to execute his shots

  42. vmk1, rafa on clay is a much much bigger challenge in tennis than djokovic on hard court is ! but yes,the current dynamics of the rivalry are such that it is almost as difficult for nole to beat rafa on clay as it is for rafa to beat nole on hard court

  43. funnily, rafa is hardly missing the inside out forehand, it has been the inside in and that cross court forehands that have looked shaky…ooo shitt some brilliance from nole and its 0-30

  44. oh my poor rafa, there was NOTHING wrong rafa did…. rafa is embarrassed lol and what a response, ace ! I bet nole is stepping into his chair with some bitterness

  45. Nole is serving really well now…rafa cannot afford to miss forehands like he did in this game…just got to make it happen when you have the chance .. now 3-3 nervous times

  46. haha, honestly , though I would really really really love rafa to win this, but I am already proud of him..this is great stuff , definitely above expectations !

    40-30 now, pleaseee no duece !!

  47. abhirf, ok ok you can have miami 2011 with the winner reversed,ok? 😀 It has been panning to be like miami 2011 though

  48. hahahah rafa with a slap on my face, comes up with 2 terrific serves to get free points, thats how its done, Like a boss 😀

  49. Positive signs by Rafa, win or lose. But I so wish Djoko is no where near Rafa in the draw. He makes life soooooooo difficult for him 🙁

  50. I feel rafa should have had already won this match but………………well, at least he really gave a good account of himself and I see him only improving in time for the US Open! Good stuff, vamos!!!

  51. rafa’s 2nd ROS has been at least as good as nole’ s today….he has been getting many meaningful returns back but has not been taking advantage in this set…

  52. abhirf, now that you mentionied miam 2011, I am getting nervous lol..rafa hit a blistering CC winner to create a 15-30 opportunity at 6-5 in miami but could not capitalize. 7-5 rafa plz plz

  53. If Rafa plays like this against Fed (given Fed’s form this season) next week in Cincy, it would turn out to be a total blowout city. I dont like the sound or even thought of it 🙁

    • I doubt Rafa will even play Cinci if he wins Montreal

      And Rafa will be tired, Fed freh..it surely wont be blow out..Rem Cinci is Feds most favoured Masters, he has won it 5 times

  54. One more bogie off the chest!! Now he hass beaen Nole on HC 🙂 So happy for him. What an anti climax if Raonic takes the cake afeer this Yeah!! Vamos!

  55. Do not think Rafa will be at cincinnati. He does not want to lose his mental edge of the win here nor does he want to load those knees. Win Canada and get back in New York

  56. Yahoo..wat a wn..vamos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    What play from Rafa, what a breaker he played
    Novak just collapsed at the end just like he did in RG semi

    Ricky..your pred just went wrong and so did preds of like 60% of ppl who said Novak will win as its HC

    21-16 yahoooooo

  57. Rafa is the best competitor and mentally the strongest player on the atp tour !

    He destroyed djokovic in the tie break, perfect tie break ! I am soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo GLAD 😀 😀 😀 I did fis pumping for about a minute LOL…

    p.s , this is what makes nadal the best in my opinion, he has shown how you overcome ‘bad matchups’ and ‘mental barriers’ ! some thing federer has never been able to overcome against rafa…

    thank GOD no rubbish like ‘ rafa has not beaten novak since USO 2010 on hard court bla bla bla..WOOHOOOOOO

    • Well this year answered 2 things and spared us from hearing

      Rafa has not won a HC title since Sep 2010
      Rafa has not beaten Novak on HC since WTF 2010

      And all this Rafa did after being 7 months off 🙂

  58. Rafa is my favourite to win the US open no matter what happens at cincy…muzz and novak are joint favourites closely behind him …

    abhirf, so we got miami 2011 but with the winner reversed 😀

    Aus 2012 demons exorcised at RG 2013, miami 2011 demons exorcised at montreal 2013 😀 Rafa is the best player of 2013… people were saying it would take him a year to get back to his best or it might never be the same after being out for 7 months…now he is bossing players like federer delpo djokovic berdych on his least preferred surface !

    The best ever comeback season in history…8th title on its way, 25th masters 1000 on its way 😀 Raonic stands little chance

    • Let us not get ahead of ourselves. The final match still has to be played.The crowd will be very pro Raonic tomm .
      Rafa has only 15 hours to recover too which is like 6 hours lessr than Milos

  59. Rafa has barely 15 hours to recover for tomorrows final (:- after this intense match..though Thank God it didnt go on and on 🙂

  60. BTW Andy was watching the match. He tweeted after Rafas shot hit Noles face
    He said ‘ Nole just took it on the face. This could get very tasty now’ 🙂

  61. Vamos Rafa!!!!!
    Best of luck for the final!!!!!
    Now pl skip Cincy and go win USO!!!!!
    Rafa has been my favorite for USO despite Ricky trying to convince me that I cannot have my favorite and must go by bookies’ favorite! The bookies favorite only reflects who is most people’s favorite to win. My favorite reflects who I think is the most likely to win!

  62. hahaha yes rafan the match started at 5 am here and its 8.13 am now ! just cannot miss rafa’s matches.. and yes i read that funny tweet 😛

    do not worry about the final, rafa will recover easily….

    NNY, where are youuu 😀 congratttsssssss HIGH FIVE to alll rafa fansss

    • vamosrafa,

      I am here! I had to get myself together after the match. Tears of happiness and joy for Rafa! I am an absolute wreck right now! I thought I would be sick from the tension and nerves!

      I voted on the site here. I did pick Rafa in three sets. I went with my heart. After seeing Rafa last night against Matosevic, I had this strong feeling that he came into this to make a statement. He was testing his aggressive game in that match.

      I am so, so proud of Rafa! I am over the moon! This is huge! So now we don’t have to hear the familiar refrain – but Rafa can’t beat Djoker on hard court! Rafa went into Djoker’s house and beat him! Blew him out in the tb!

      YAY!!! I love you Rafa !

  63. “It was important point, but I don’t think he meant to go for my head. We sorted it out.” Novak on if was he upset being hit by Rafa’s shot.

    Good mature behaviour by both unlike Tomas-Nico

  64. I agree with you holdserve ! and all things make sense for rafa to skip cincy except one thing…the no.1 ranking ! he has a nice lead building up in the atp race …1420 lead if he wins the final tomorrow..now nole winning cincy would shrink it to a mere 1000..not sure rafa has this on his priority list but he might want to play cincy for 2 reasons:

    1. increase his lead in the race
    2. build on momentum ! practice his aggressive game and ROS in more match play…

    We know the downsides though…he’l decide on monday i guess

  65. Rafa haas beaten Noval 5 of the last 6 times they have played. I think there is not even 5% of the press writing about it like it was when Nole went 7 0 on Rafa

  66. Yup the press is stupid…lol..rafa has turned around the rivalry beautifully..I am sure some of the detractors would say ‘ not until he beats novak in a non-clay slam’.. rubbish logic..

    this win is not comparable to monte carlo win for djoker…this is a much more significant win for rafa than that was for nole

    so a clay court specialist is on his way to win his 7th masters 1000 on a hard court? pete sampras won a total of 11 on all surfaces ! LOL…yeah right a clay court specilist LOLOLOLOL

  67. Congrats Rafa and Rafans!!!! I am so thrilled for Rafa, he played an amazing match!!! So looking forward to sseing him play in Cinci and the rest of the h/c season!!!

    So Rafa, please stay healthy and wishing you good luck tomorrow against Milos!!!!

    VAMOS!!!!

  68. look.. told you guys that rafa will beat djoker 🙂
    atleast appreciate me rafa fans ritb vamosrafa holdserve clayqueen nny 😉

  69. And guys Nole is no longer the Nole of 2011. He is still damn good but no longer invincible. He has def lost his mental strength.

    He has shown mental fragility in far too many important matches in the past 2 years – RG 2012, RG 2013, Wimby 2012, Wimby 2013, USO 2012, Montreal 2013, Indian Wells 2013, Rome 2013

    BTW I wonder if Fed saw this match, I bet he did, wonder what he took away from it.

  70. Rafan, nole’s fall from 2011 has a lot to do with rafa’s turning around this rivalry ! he is denting nole’s mentality with every match now…. but yes other than that, nole is not cloes to that 2011 level in many regards

    • Gotta really admire Rafa..he actually turned it around. He took his break, worked on his mental strength, his body, his shots, his approach.

      And Rafa-Nole is actually the true rivalry..its very intense, matches are very tight..today too Rafa won 97 points to Noles 95..it was that close..

      Fed/Rafa had its good days but then it was always a bit lopsided

  71. I am so eager to see Rafa Murray face off..its been like nearly 2 years they havent, Sep 2011 Tokyo was last right?

    Really keen to see the newer GS winning Murray taking on the aggressive Rafa

    And I wonder what Nole took away from this match..he actually played this agressive Rafa..damn that will make him more cautious and prepared for USO

  72. I am not sure of Cincy but today if Fed would have played either of the 2, he would have lost badly..He jut wouldn’t have been able to keep up with the intensity

  73. I watched the match recorded an hour or two after actual time. I kept thinking the whole time that Nadal might still get nervous a bit, just at times, with Nole because even when Nole is not playing his best he is still so tough to beat. But look at the other side: Nole is losing whatever confidence he used to have in 2011 and the early months of 2012 that he was going to beat Rafa most of the time. Many people predicted back then that this would now forever be the case. In fact Nadal has won nearly every one of their matches for a long stretch now: that is an amazing achievement. Definitely now Nole is 95% out of Rafa’s head. That problem has been met and solved.

    We also saw again that Rafa is working on this summer what next needs his deliberate problem solving and practice, including a more difficult to read and more difficult to return serve and a lot more aggression throughout most of the game. All in preparation no doubt for the USO.

    As the tournament titles kept coming this spring we knew we might see a lot of greatness from Rafa this year. But now it is actually happening. Other than the first round exit at Wimbledon he has had an almost perfect year so far since coming back a month after the AO. And he has won his first hardcourt match against Novak since they last played on the surface at AO a year and a half ago. Should they meet at the USO Rafa will give Novak a hard time… it might be a pretty close and even match.

    One more time, how often have we seen this strong and consistent comeback after a long injury delay by any pro tennis player, male or female?

    Vamos Rafa, no matter what!

    Knee notwithstanding… you have got to believe Rafa still has at least one Wimbledon and at least one hardcourt major in him, and maybe two Paris Open.

  74. @chloro, if he can keep playing like this, winning 2-3 hard court slams would be conceivable… I am getting way too excited but if rafa wins USO 2013, he’l win Oz 2014 too thats my call.. I cannot say anything about the knee though …just confident he will be fine at USO

  75. I hope that at the USO it would be Rafa Fed on one side and Nole-Muzza on the other. Rafa deserves a good draw at least once!!!!! And being on Fed’s side would ensure better scheduling, less grueling SF and meeting not more than one of Nole-Muzza!

  76. abhirf,

    I was not pleased to see you bring up Miami again. Well, Rafa has now turned it around. He beat Djoker in the tb! In fact, this victory is all the sweeter when we think back on the 2011 I/W and Miami losses to Djoker. I just feel like dancin’! Wasn’t there a song with that title by Leo Sayer in the 70’s?

    I want to party now! WOW! WOW! Rafa isn’t even in his best form yet.

    Rafa is a man on a mission! I also want him to play at Cincy. Get more match practice and more ranking points. He has to get back to #2 so that he won’t have to keep meeting Djoker in the finals. This was the real final!

    Now Rafa has a quick turnaround for tomorrow! Please take down Raonic the cheater who got through playing mediocre tennis because his opponents couldn’t get the job done. I don’t care if the crowd will be cheering for Raonic. Rafa has the momentum now!

  77. If Rafa wins USO 2013 and AO 2014, he would have a double career slam!!!!! I feel scared! Let us not look too far ahead. One match at a time.
    Now go win that Montreal final! Vamos Rafa!!!!!

  78. Someone on vb computed the rankings points and said that Rafa can become #2 if he wins both Montreal and Cincy and Murray doesn’t get past the semis. The scenario for taking over the #1 ranking seems pretty unlikely. I think that Djoker would have to not get past the semis at Cincy and the USO. I think Rafa would have to win both.

    Rafa has never even reached the finals at Cincy. Many have been thinking that he will drop out of Cincy if he goes deep at Montreal. Well he’s in the final now. I wonder when he will make his decision. I want him to play at Cincy for the match practice and the rankings points. I do not see Rafa winning Cincy. So he will probably go into the USO ranked #3. I wish he could get to #2, so he won’t have to face Djoker until the final. But he lost a big chance when he crashed out early at Wimbledon.

    I agree about not getting carried away. Rafa has to win Montreal first. One step at a time.

  79. Wow! Did not expect to wake up to this result. Congrats to Rafa and his gr8 fans 🙂 Virtual hugs to Nole’s fans 🙁
    And in other news, that well known doubles specialist, Mr Andrew Murray, gets to the final with the rather gorgeous, Mr Colin Fleming…
    Go AndCol go!

  80. Rafa’s opinion on the match: “I said yesterday the only chance to win against Novak, the only tactic is to play very well. To play very well, I have to play aggressive. If not, I cannot play very well on this kind of surface. And I did. I played a very high level tonight, I think. I played with the right decisions in the important moments. Yes, the serve worked well during the whole night. And the shots from the baseline, I tried to stay very close to the baseline, go inside when I had the chance.”
    Rafa is satisfied with his performance. Me too. I like him playing aggressively. I become depressed when he is playing like he is warming up (not competing). Well done, Rafa!!!

  81. ritb,

    You made me laugh! I could not stop crying when Rafa won the match! I think part of it was just the release of nervous tension and the other part was the pride and emotion of seeing Rafa play so well and take it to Djoker. This was something else!

    augustina,

    Thanks for posting Rafa’s comments. I haven’t had a chance to see them. Rafa is always very honest about his game. He obviously prepared for this and had a game plan. His position at or near the baseline to return serve clearly affected Djoker. That’s part of the reason why he double faulted. I checked the stats on the atp website and Rafa had 7 aces! I think Djoker had 8, but 7 double faults for the match!

    I also checked the serving stats. Rafa’s overall 1st serves in percentage was about 70 or 71% for the match. I think 1st serve points won was in the mid to high 60 percent. The one that stood out to me was the second serve stats. In the seven straight losses Rafa had to Djoker, he was always winning less on his second serve. But in this match, Rafa had more second serve points won overall than Djoker. That is a crucial stat.

    The other thing I noticed is how well Rafa is hitting his cc backhand. Very flat and angled. That shot usually takes time to come back after Rafa has been out of action. His overall court positioning in this match was great. The espn commentators certainly noticed it! Brad Gilbert kept saying that this was the most aggressive he had ever seen Rafa play Djoker on hard courts!

    It’s still sinking in for me. This has to be one of the more satisfying moments for Rafa.

  82. deucy,

    I didn’t realize that Andy was still in the doubles. That’s a good thing because he is getting some more match play. Good for him for getting to the finals!

  83. I think Sana and I were possibly the only two people to pick Rafa for this win!

    Popsi is officially my new favourite amongst the younger generation. It was only Raonic’s experience of big matches that decided the tie-break.

    • ed,

      I don’t think I put my prediction up here, but where you can vote I did select Rafa in three sets! I went with my heart!

      Did you see the match? If not, try to check it out! Rafa was on fiyah! That means fire!

  84. I think its time for Rafa fans to have more confidence in their guy. I feel most of us value his opponents far too greatly and undermine Rafas capabilities

    BTW anyone wants to catch 2nd part of match..here it is..the 3rd set is worth watching all over again..Look at Rafa n Novak..their last sets are mostly monumental wth great play ..RG 2012(7-5), RG2013 (9-7), AO 2012(7-5) , Montreal 2013 (7-6), Miami 2011(7-6)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrpD4OaSppA&feature=c4-overview&list=UUC3s7Mv5X6PDzI7G77lHU9A

  85. NNY: No was not watching live (too much Rose earlier in the evening to stay awake) but woke up just in time to see the TB finish. I’m watching the replay now and being sent nearly silly by Jason Goodall’s sycophantic praise of Nole 🙁

    As somebody said above, almost no mention that Rafa has been beating Nole regularly recently. All they talk about is Nole’s winning streak against Rafa in 2011. Dah.

    I had a hunch that Nole is more fragile face to face with Rafa now and that, compounded with his hope of sweeping the board by holding all nine Masters title, would get to him.

    An interesting stat: in all but 5 of their 35 meetings the winner of the first set went on to win the match: that was why it was crucial Rafa came out firing on all cylinders!

    • Notice how there was collective amnesia post 2011? Suddenly, Rafa’s wins over Djokovic before 2011 became irrelevant, just as any of his wins over Djokovic on clay were irrelevant, pre and post 2011.

      Let’s see how the rest of the HC season pans out………….let’s see if the narrative changes if Rafa gets a couple more HC wins over Novak.

    • ed251137 (August 11, 2013 at 9:14 am),
      —and being sent nearly silly by Jason Goodall’s sycophantic praise of Nole—

      Jason Goodall always roots against Rafa, no matter who is his opponent. When Rafa wins, I am delighted to hear disappointment in JG’s voice.

  86. NNY,
    I brought out the Miami’11 during the 1st set itself. The pattern of play was quite similar to that match from start to Finish. But, I never picked a winner before the TB in 3rd when I said that Rafa will win coz of his service. Though, I didn’t expected Nole to go out flat in that TB after playing some great tennis in 2nd and 3rd set.
    This match once again highlighted the importance of service when two competitors fight it out in a marquee match, something which Fed easily used to do in his hey days but now struggles to serve even 50% of those. Time takes away all 😐

    • Just as he did in 2010 – particularly his serve! But this is why it’s not wise to read too much into these two pre USO tournaments results. The top contenders are boxing and coxing with each other.

      • It’s true that Rafa didn’t come out and talk about it. But all you had to do was watch his matches to see that there were some chances. The commentators have been talking all week about how he was standing much closer to the baseline to return serve. Even though he was still working to get the rhythm and timing on his groundstrokes after being out of action, just watching him made it clear that he was implementing changes.

        It was in the Matosevic match that I really sensed that he was going to change things up with Djoker. I think he was actually looking forward to that match. He came out and smothered Matosevic with his aggressive play. He never let him get into the match. Then in the second set once he got the early break, he kind of took his foot off the gas. He knew that this guy couldn’t challenge him and couldn’t break his serve. So he did just enough to get the win. He was conserving energy for his match with Djoker.

        I think we haven’t seen everything from Rafa yet. There could be more surprises at the USO.

        abhirf,

        I wasn’t trying to be unkind. I just don’t like to be reminded of the 2011 Miami. As I watched the tb, I thought back to that match. It was sweet for Rafa to blast Djoker off the court in that tb and get this win.

  87. Come to think of it, I think its not great that Rafa played Novak now, it kinda exposed Rafas changed game plan nd will make Novak ready and cautious to counter Rafa in USO

    • But what can Novak do? Seriously, what changes can Novak do? According to hoim, he hea already ditched gluten, dairy, sugar etc, etc………he has already improved his stamina by “getting rid of impurities in his body” so he tells us in his new diet book. Apparently impurities turn your urine green, who knew?

      I am not being disrespectful but Novak is a one trick pony, he has not varied his game, he never will. Even in 2011, Rafa remarked that Novak’s game is still the same, it was just his mentality and stamina which had changed. Rafa, otoh, changes his game according to surface and opponent. Even Novak remarked that Rafa had changed his court position and was taking the ball early in his post match presser last night. What can Novak do about that?

      Personally, I suggest he stop the silly, attention seeking, vaudevillian, post match win antics and double down on practice. Then, he may have a chance………..

      • Hi rafaisthebest..link to Novaks presser please?

        I agree though that Novak has just not upraded hmself much from 2011 onwards, he has surely worked on his serving and that has been a remarkable improvement..on the other hand both Rafa and Murray have upgraded themselves a lot.

        About Fed..well he is atleast trying to upgrade, just hasn’t yet yielded results

      • I mentioned the other day it strikes me Djokovic has become complacent. Beating Rafa at Monte Carlo also gave him a false sense of security. Your comment about his game not really evolving since his initial Slam victory in ’08 is interesting: that early success gave him an inflated sense of his own abilities with the result he rested on his laurels for too long. Much of Rafa’s success is due to the way he is constantly evolving and the way he adapts his game to deal with players who can challenge him.

  88. @Rafan, those were quotes I saw in news reports about Novak’s comments after the game. Will post a transcript link when I come across it. Yes, you are right, Novak did improve his serve post 2011 and that was a major addition to his game. I don’t know about you but I see a Federer-esque arrogance in Novak re his game i.e. he has been told so many times, by so many people that he has the perfect tennis game, that he is the complete tennis player that he does not feel the need to tinker much. Rafa and Muzza are the complete opposite. They are more self-deprecating and are thus never content with their level of play, always looking to improve……….

    Personally, I am happy to concede that Novak is the complete player, that he is perfect compared to Rafa, as long as Rafa keeps beating him! He wouldn’t be the first to suffer the ignominy of being bested by an “inferior” player over and over, a certain Roger Federer can attest to that……………

    • I am not saying Nole has hit the ceiling, just that I have difficulty in seeing where the improvements can come from for Nole apart from more practice. With Rafa, you could see the holes e.g. court positioning especially when receiving, aggressivity (he needed to be more aggressive), his serve needed to have more pop. Novak already has all these elements in his game…………..what can he do better?

    • A strange thing observed in the pre match presser

      Before RG semi, Novak ws all pompous saying I can beat Rafa, I know what to do, I can draw back on MC etc and he made all those statements when he was to play Rafa on Rafa strongest surface clay

      Before Montreal presser, he only said he has better chance of beating Rafa on HC , def more than he can on clay

      It was a remarkable climbdown in the presser.

      Thoughts?

      • You think Nole has discovered humility? I don’t think so. I think he had more invested in an RG win than Montreal, so all that pre-RG bluster was more an intimadatory tactic than an actual belief he could beat Rafa at RG.

        And I think he actually believed he was a shoo in for the Montreal final, that he would beat Rafa, especially after the way he humiliated Gasquet, and a fast HC being Rafa’s “worst” surface.

        I believe he was truly shocked by the way Rafa took it to him, hence the tie-break score. The way he surrendered in the tie break is the same way he surrendered the final game at RG………telling.

  89. We are not the only ones saying this about Novak’s game. Comments from Nole fans in the blogosphere are also saying Nole has not improved his game, especially since 2011 and other have, specifically Muzza and Rafa.

    • ritb,

      I do think that Djoker was shocked by Rafa’s aggressive play. He never expected it. That’s why he was double faulting all over the place in that first set. Also, it put tremendous pressure on his serve and that’s not something that Djoker has had to deal with when he plays Rafa. I think his easy draw did not help him. He may well have become complacent, but considering how inconsistent he has been this year that is not a good thing. You cannot afford to be complacent in this game.

      I really think his problem is more mental. Last year even though he wasn’t playing at the high level of 2011, he was winning matches with his mental strength. That quality has not been there this year. When you look at some of his unexpected losses, you see that he was up a break and ahead and then lost. I don’t know if it’s burnout or the pressure of being #1, but something is off with him. Rafa broke him mentally and that’s why Djoker lost the tb that way. He had nothing left. When has that happened recently?

      • I think its over-confidence and hubris, @nny. As you say, the cup-cake draws have also lulled him into a false sense of comfort. Look at this new post match win dancing thing, what is that? Bringing wigs and all such props on court, it takes planning. Time that could be spent focussing on aspects of his game he needs to improve on. That to me suggests someone who has taken his eye off the ball.

  90. I desp desp want a Rafa Murray final in USO…hope it happens..but for that to happen Rafa will have to play Novak in the semis (:-

    • One thing that puzzles me about Nole. You do not see him playing doubles as often as Rafa and Muzza, why is that especially considering his net play is the worst of the three?

  91. yeah I was reading all the comments and I wonder why you people don’t trust rafa and always start talking about the possible defeat from djoker.. even rafa is not my guy but when I watched his early matches I was feeling that djoker cant beat THIS rafa.. aggression is the key to win against djoker with confidence and rafa was prepared .. m happy that he stopped djoker from winning this title .. and can anybody tell me why rafa uses tape on his fingers??

    • @sana, Rafa tapes his fingers to stop the skin being ripped off, literally, by the vicious topspin he applies to his shots. Btw, Rafans are a lot like their idol, we are a self-deprecating lot. We always downplay our chances, just like Rafa……….

  92. But that’s wrong because he is a great player more greater than djoker n I dont like when you guys talk negatively … may be I m imress from his fighting abilities n I praise rafa.. but I always cheer for murray n fancy his chances same fir delpo 😉

    • @sana, my second favourite is Murray. I like Delpo, but not as much as Rafa and Murray. I don’t like Dimitrov, he does not strike me as serious with his game.

  93. Nny, I never took your post as unkind or anything like that. Sorry if my post made you feel so 🙂

    On another note,
    I want Nole to get some more beatdowns and lose the USO and No.1 ranking. Maybe then he will again start taking things seriously. Maybe then in 2014, he can provide 2011 again. He appears to be taking things for granted. Not a good thing to do in your peak years.

    • @abhirf, glad you also notice the Nole’s unsavoury attitude, especially for a #1. I think he had begun to believe the propaganda, that he was the Golden Child, that he was Fed’s successor, that he was in Rafa’s head, that Murray is a distant second to him…..

      Well, I hope he continues with that mindset, so Rafa can have some more wins!

  94. it will be greatest news if djoker lose no.1 ranking and that’s realistic now.. because rafa DNP the WTF n djoker was winner si his 1500 points will be deducted then murray and rafa can gain some points ..I hope this year we will see a new world no. 1.. 🙂

  95. I am so very eager to see what Fed has to say about Noles dads comments on him as well as his dancing. I am sure within his team, they would have mocked at him and I am sure if someone asks him that, a tongue in cheek sarcastic dig will be given by Roger 🙂

  96. abhirf – Nole will not have another 2011 again, it will take heck of a lot to repeat it. Murray was kinda nowhere in 2011, not really a serious opposition , he has both Rafa and Murray to go through now and repeating 2011 will be very difficult.

  97. @sanju,
    I agree with you regarding the repetition of 2011 by Nole with the rise of Muzz. But, then again, he has done it once and maybe can do it once again. 2011 Nole was all about fighting till doomsday arrive and felt like he can’t be beaten by anyone and played like that. He has lost that intensity somehow. 2011 Nole mentally defeated his opponents. Now he is trying to beat them with his game thus resulting in closely contested losses like USO’12 final, FO’13 Sf, or yesterday’s Sf etc. He just seems to have lost that aura.

    • Thanks RITB. You mean the good Nole and Fed fans, not the trolls who stank TT in the last few months 🙂

      Abhirf – I dont thnk he will repeat 2011 at all again, that was an exception. He will be 3 years older in 2014 too, dont forget that, far more miles clocked in the legs. And I dont think the rest of the field will surrender to him anymore just like that. He will have to play it to win it which he ofcourse cn , he wont because of his aura, that aura is more in the minds of his fans. He will have his priorities and go after that is what I believe and Rafa will do the same, set certain priorities and goals and pursue them. I def dont see Rafa either making a kill for all in years to come.

  98. The metamorphosis of the 2011 version of Djokovic was an extraordinary thing to behold when he was riding a tidal wave of confidence post the Davis Cup win and swept everything before him. It was inevitable that it would not last indefinitely but nevertheless it is still surprising to see him struggling this year since the AO.

  99. Sanju, yes mileage is definitely the factor.
    But the aura does helps. Even today while facing Fed (not so much this season) and Rafa, their opponents in the closing stages of a set or a match start faltering. Just by the thought of it that they are going to beat Fed or Rafa makes them nervous enough to lose their game. It definitely helps when your opponent is beaten in the locker room itself.

    • Good example of the impact of “aura” is the just ended Montreal final. Poor Raonic could hardly lift his arm for a proper ball toss because of the sight of who was across him and what he was doing with the ball…………………

    • Yes Abhi..but what I meant was his aura with the Top 6-7..not the rest of the field

      A DelPotro has beaten him, Berdy has beaten him, Tsonga has beaten him and they all know they can beat him. I am not even talking of Rafa, Murray, Fed who ofcourse know they can beat him on their day and know it boils down to who will play better on the day .

  100. I am very happy that Rafa won his 8th title this year and his 25th Masters title! I am glad that he didn’t have to play a long final, I expected a tougher match.
    Rafa said after the final:
    – the surface in Montreal is faster than that in Indian Wells; the surface in IW is the most suitable hard court surface for him;
    – he recovered well after the match vs Djokovic;
    – he practiced serve return a lot in Montreal and his return worked well;
    – it’s difficult to reach the world No. 1 spot this year, but he is going to try.

    An interview with Rafael Nadal (August 11, 2013)
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/12/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-11-2013/#more-9023

  101. While watching the Raonic match, first set I kicked myself for having predicted a 7-5, 6-4 win for Rafa and “more lobsided based on Raonic’s nerves and serve”. How Rafa played this week, esp against Nole should have made me, for once :-), not so conservative.

    Years ago a friend of mine who is a Fed fan (but entirely grounded and realistic) told me that Roger’s main problem is his lack of humility re that there is little he could improve on. I agree with those of you who are saying that Nole has had a similar lack of the right kind of humility since 2011 (and before). Nole is talented both with various tennis skills and his incredible flexibility (something his early coach work him hard on). But he is not quite in the league of Roger and Andy in sheer tennis potential. And perhaps not in Rafa’s either. I always think that Rafa had a lot of tennis potential but not nearly as much as Roger and Andy, plus he has all the deep repercussions of the foot issues he was born with. However he made up for this potential (small?) difference in sheer potential with the way he and Toni developed his mind and his skills… no need to elaborate on all that I mean by that. And as a result Rafa has come closer to his maximum potential than most athletes come, or let’s say at least closer than most if not all present-day male tennis players.

    In other words, there is always room for improvement, there is always a distance from you maximum potential in every aspect of your game, and that includes what you do with your mind during matches and between matches. Clearly Nole has not maxed out on the mind aspects, nor really on the other aspects. He came closer in 2011 and played better than almost any male player has ever played for a year. which does not mean he could not do even better. He was also helped by Roger not having a great year, Rafa having had that injury at the AO and the flue and thus starting the rest of the year weaker in his matches against Nole than he might have. Not to take anything away from Nole’s level that year. But he has not been approaching his career with the attitude of keep on doing everything to improve anything that needed improving.

    Roger perhaps did in his early days but I believe he has not really done enough of it since. I still don’t believe that it is mostly the matchup of lefty topspin Rafa shots to Roger’s one-hand backhand that would explain most of the severe lopsidedness of their H2H… had Roger had the level of the right kind of humility that Rafa has cultivated over a lifetime …. their rivalry would have been even more interesting and their H2H more balanced.

    So you could summarize by saying that Roger’s and Nole’s main limitation / obstacle to overcome is their mindset, Rafa is his foot-issues-related and physical-game-related knee injuries, and Andy his mindset (in a different way than Roger and Nole). Lendl seems to have been very helpful to Andy with this, as was expected and as we were hoping.

    Sana,
    I am another Rafa fan whose second fav is Andy. I think there may be a couple more of us from TT.

    • While Novak shares Fed’s arrogance interns of his talents, he differs from Fed in that he is weighed down by a massive inferiority complex, unlike Fed. Novak has tweeted that he watched the Rafa/Raonic final and said it was a like a “dance”. No prizes for guessing who that referenced. He was seriously spooked by Rafa’s form in the semi and is scouting Rafa out. Btw, Novak follows Rafa on twitter, Rafa does not follow Novak. After a beat down by Rafa, Fed made a point of not watching Rafa’s subsequent matches, at least that’s what Fed told us. Fed does not follow Rafa, and Rafa does not follow Fed.

  102. Chloro, didnt you said the same as above post on TT. And as far as I remember we had quite a lot of discussion on it.
    Though I too would agree with it to some extent. Fed with a slight better attotude could have attained even more success, but he already has too much. I’m more than happy and satisfied with what he has achieved till now. Just want to see him play for more time. A sheer joy to watch him play. Even if he doesnt add any more titles now, I’m ok with it. Though some more wouldn’t be bad 😉

  103. Hi abhirf,

    Yes I did write about the same re Fed on TT (but not about Novak, this is the first time). And I remember we had a conversation about it then. Rafa and Roger make for a very interesting study of contrasts re their attitudes. (And I’d say that given the context he grew up in Roger would be hard-pressed to turn out a lot more like Rafa than the way he did turn up.)

    Roger, to me anyway, embodies more how the general culture is many countries seems to steer the next generation. Rafa embodies values that seem less prized nowadays…. generally speaking. Although, to be more fair, Roger also embodies other fine qualities that were more prized in previous generations… so to be more fair I’d say that Novak embodies even more the way the media, peer pressure, and other factors in modern life seem to steer the new generations.

  104. yes. They all have given something different and valuable to the game with their persona and attitude. That’s why they have become legends.

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