Rio de Janeiro, Marseille, and Delray Beach previews and predictions

February 15, 2015 Ricky Dimon Tournament previews 52

Week 3 of four in the frantic month of February will get an added boost from a face that is becoming a familiar one during the Golden Swing. Rafael Nadal is back in action, but he may not steal the entire show away from two other relatively well-stocked tournaments. Rotterdam champion Stan Wawrinka will look to keep momentum going in Marseille, while Kevin Anderson and John Isner are making the short trip from Memphis to Delray Beach.

Rio Open

Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Total financial commitment: $1,548,755
Points: 500

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: Since requiring match practice in 2013 after missing the Australian Open, Nadal has been no stranger to the Golden Swing. He played three such events that year before making an appearance at this inaugural Rio de Janeiro event in 2014. Having survived tough tests in the semis and final, Nadal now enters as the defending champion. The third-ranked Spaniard should not have too much trouble advancing in a field with only one other top 15 player (David Ferrer), but his draw is by no means the easiest. Nadal will open against Brazil’s own Thomaz Bellucci, will likely run into either comeback kid Nicolas Almagro or Sao Paulo winner Pablo Cuevas in the quarters, and could meet the mercurial Fabio Fognini in the semis.

Ferrer, on the other hand, could not have asked for a better road to the weekend at the bottom of the bracket. The No. 2 seed’s section is riddled with qualifiers and wild cards. Neither Santiago Giraldo, Juan Monaco, nor Jarkko Nieminen is in the kind of form that will be able to trouble Ferrer in the quarters. Look for Ferrer to face the Tommy Robredo vs. Leonardo Mayer winner in the last four. Robredo and Mayer are also in a weak section and there may be no stopping them en route to a quarterfinal collision.

First-round upset alert: Dusan Lajovic over (8) Martin Klizan. Klizan has a game that can work on clay, but he lost his second match in Quito in blowout fashion to Victor Estrella Burgos and he was upset by Joao Souza in round two of Sao Paulo. A hostile Brazilian crowd contributed to the latter result and Klizan will not have to deal with that this time around. Still, Lajovic is picking up confidence on this surface with consecutive quarterfinal showings in Quito and Sao Paulo.

Hot: Pablo Cuevas, Dusan Lajovic, Joao Souza, Elias Ymer

Cold: Tommy Robredo, Fabio Fognini, Nicolas Almagro, Pablo Andujar, Juan Monaco

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Nicolas Almagro, Pablo Andujar over Martin Klizan, Leonardo Mayer over Tommy Robredo, and David Ferrer over Santiago Giraldo

Semifinals: Nadal over Andujar and Ferrer over Mayer

Final: Nadal over Ferrer

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Open 13

Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Total financial commitment: 632,840 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Milos Raonic
Defending champion: Ernests Gulbis

Draw analysis: Wawrinka will have to mentally and physically regroup after a long, successful week in Rotterdam, but he should be able to do it. The second-seeded Swiss not only has a first-round bye, but also a favorable draw. Up first for Wawrinka could be good friend Benoit Paire, who also lifted a trophy on Sunday (Bergamo Challenger). Two of Wawrinka’s nearest seeds are an ice-cold Ernests Gulbis and a slumping Lukas Rosol. Gilles Simon, however, may be a problem in a potential semifinal showdown.

Milos Raonic headlines a much deeper top half. Unseeded threats include Simone Bolelli, Vasek Pospisil, Dominic Thiem, and Jerzy Janowicz. The top-seeded Canadian will kick off his campaign against either Bolelli or surprise Sao Paulo runner-up Luca Vanni. Gael Monfils also has a nice road through two rounds and should coast into a possible quarterfinal date with Raonic.

First-round upset alert: Jerzy Janowicz over (6) David Goffin. Sergiy Stakhovsky over Rosol is an obvious choice, but it would hardly be an upset based on current form (plus Stakhovsky should have a surface advantage indoors). Assuming Janowicz has recovered from an illness that forced him to retired from the Montpellier final, a fast hard court likely gives him a good shot against Goffin. The Belgian is no longer scorching hot like he was in 2014 when he went on a 25-match winning streak that was snapped by none other than Janowicz.

Hot: Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, Luca Vanni, Simone Bolelli, Sergiy Stakhovsky

Cold: Ernests Gulbis, Andrey Golubev, Dominic Thiem

Semifinal predictions: Milos Raonic over David Goffin and Gilles Simon over Stan Wawrinka

Final: Raonic over Simon

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Delray Beach Open

Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Total financial commitment: $500,000
Points: 250

Top seed: Kevin Anderson
2014 champion: Marin Cilic (not playing)

Draw analysis: Delray Beach has an ignominious history of previous champions not returning for title defense and this year is no exception with Marin Cilic still injured. That leaves Anderson as the No. 1 seed and—arguably—the tournament favorite. The South African’s draw is a great one, too, with a qualifier to start and Adrian Mannarino as his nearest seed. Mannarino has cooled off drastically since beginning his 2015 campaign with a runner-up finish in Auckland. Anderson could be in line for a huge-serving semifinal against Ivo Karlovic, but the 6’11’’ Croat would likely have to get past both Dustin Brown and Steve Johnson along the way.

There is more of an American flavor in the bottom half of the bracket (five entries, compared to two up top). Sam Querrey, Donald Young, and Tim Smyczek are all in fine form and Stefan Kozlov is starting to make a name for himself at 17 years old. The winner of Smyczek vs. Kozlov could have a huge opportunity in a section where third-seeded Alexandr Dolgopolov is extremely vulnerable right now. Isner has not yet gotten things going in 2015 and may have a difficult first-rounder on his hands against Marinko Matosevic. The No. 2 seed is in a tough quarter that also features Viktor Troicki and Bernard Tomic.

First-round upset alert: Teymuraz Gabashvili over (3) Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov has pretty much been a disaster since his huge performances in Indian Wells (semis) and Miami (quarters) last year. He has a 10-15 overall record dating back to the start of the 2014 spring clay-court swing. The Ukrainian is 1-3 this season and coming off an opening straight-set loss in Memphis to Tomic. Gabashvili has been terrible this year, but he reached the Delray Beach quarterfinals in 2014 and he has never lost an opening match in five previous trips to this event.

Hot: Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey, Viktor Troicki, Sam Groth, Donald Young, Tim Smyczek

Cold: John Isner, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Stephane Robert, Igor Sijsling, Alejandro Gonzalez

Semifinal predictions: Kevin Anderson over Ivo Karlovic and Viktor Troicki over Sam Querrey

Final: Troicki over Anderson

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

52 Comments on Rio de Janeiro, Marseille, and Delray Beach previews and predictions

  4. Ricky Dimon says:
    February 15, 2015 at 2:39 pm
    Top half is a joke.

    and then he says…
    “… but his draw is by no means the easiest.”

    Rafa will struggle to defend this week. Not saying he won’t but he certainly won’t “sleepwalk to the final” as Ricky claims. We will see.

    #DoYou?
    #YoureWelcome

    Reply

  5. Players in Rafa’s top-heavy half in Rio:

    Bellucci: took Rafa to 7-5 twice at RG (out of six sets played)
    Berlocq: took a set off Rafa on clay
    Almagro: Beat Rafa last year on clay
    Andujar: took Rafa to a 3rd set TB losing 10-8 in Rio semi last year, played Rafa close at 2011 RG losing 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(4)
    Klizan: beat Rafa on HC last year, took a set off Rafa 2013 RG.

    There is NO ONE in Ferru’s half that has ever played Rafa better on clay compared to the list above.

    Ferru however WILL sleepwalk to the final.

    #DoYourHomework
    #YoureWelcome

    Reply

    • hawkeye,

      Thanks for posting that info on Rafa’s opponents in his part of the draw. I do not think this is an easy one for him, given that he has not played much. We know that he is trying to get back to his best form and needs match play. No way is he going to sleepwalk to the final! On the other hand, Ferrer got a very easy draw.

      Rafa likes a challenge. I just hope that he can do well here and get a good result.

      Reply

  11. I don’t think Rafa will waltz his way to the final, only because he hasn’t played enough to do so. However, if it should happen then I would of course be extremely happy!

    Reply

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