Rio de Janeiro final preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Norrie

Alcaraz

You probably didn’t have Cameron Norrie being Carlos Alcaraz’s biggest rival on your Golden Swing bingo card at the beginning of February, but that is exactly what has turned out to be the case.

Alcaraz and Norrie will be going head-to-head in a final for the second time in as many weeks when they meet again at the Rio Open on Sunday. They just battled each other for the Buenos Aires title last weekend, when Alcaraz capped off his comeback from injury with a 6-3, 7-5 victory.

Now the stakes are doubled, as 250 points were on the line in Buenos Aires while 500 are up for grabs in Rio de Janeiro. That isn’t much a factor in this particularly matchup, but if anything it probably heightens Alcaraz’s intensity level–especially since he is the defending champion. Successfully holding on to all of those points from his 2022 triumph would go a long way in the 19-year-old’s effort to get back to the top of the rankings.

Although Alcaraz is the top seed and has been a heavy favorite from the start in Rio de Janeiro, his title defense hasn’t been easy. The world No. 2 needed almost two hours to get past Brazilian wild card Mateus Alves, dropped a set to Fabio Fognini, was pushed to a second-set tiebreaker by Dusan Lajovic, and was deadlocked with Nicolas Jarry at 6-7(2), 7-5 in the semis before delivering a bagel in the third.

“I’m so proud of myself,” said Alcaraz, who missed the Nitto ATP Finals at the end of last season and was forced out of last month’s Australian Open. “To be in a final again in my second tournament is a really special moment for me…. I couldn’t ask for a better start of 2023.”

Norrie is the second-best player on this Golden Swing according to the rankings, but he was never expected to play two finals in a row with so many traditional clay-court players in the field. The 13th-ranked Brit played great in Buenos Aires and has also held off all challengers in Rio. Norrie had to work especially hard on Saturday afternoon, outlasting Bernabe Zapata Miralles in a third-set tiebreaker.

This should be another fun one following their competitive 6-3, 7-5 contest in Buenos Aires–but unless Alcaraz is less than 100 percent physically in the wake of so much tennis the past two weeks, you have to think he still has the edge. He is 4-1 lifetime against Norrie, including 2-0 on clay.

Look for the Spaniard to secure back-to-back titles and go back-to-back in Rio.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

WWW: Alcaraz vs. Norrie?

4 Comments on Rio de Janeiro final preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Norrie

  1. This might be super close…..because just how much does Carlos have in the tank? Norrie’s match was tough too…maybe Carlos in 2??

  2. Alcaraz for the win, maybe not in straight sets. In the end, 3rd set Carlos had it reasonably easy handing Nicolas Jarry a bagel.

    Many of us picked Norrie as a finalist.

    Fortunately, after they take on each other in the Rio Final, Carlos and Cam are headed to Acapulco and have time to recover.

  3. Cami

    Congratulations on winning the Rio bracket!
    How did you do that? Pipped at the post, I was. (as said in British English)
    🤗
    And big Congrats to Cameron Norrie for pipping Charlie at the post!
    Now I am wondering who you are. This is not your first rodeo at this game.

    A question for you is, do you pick Cam and Charlie to repeat these wins in Acapulco?

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