A breakdown of the U.S. Open seeding groups: 1, 2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16, 17-24, and 25-32. Who is looking good at the top? Who could cause a third-round upset as a 25-32 seed? Those questions will be asked–and, soon enough, answered.
1. Rafael Nadal – Nadal is playing well enough to win a third U.S. Open title and his second major of 2017, but the jury remains out on his hard-court form.
2. Andy Murray – Murray has not taken the court since Wimbledon due to a hip injury, so his outlook in New York is simply not good.
3-4 in order of U.S. Open chances
3. Roger Federer – If he is 100 percent (and he should be), the reigning Australian Open and Wimbledon champion is a clear-cut favorite to lift the trophy.
4. Alexander Zverev – Zverev has been better than everyone except Nadal and Federer this year, so it’s time for him to make real noise at a slam for the first time in his career.
5-8 in order of U.S. Open chances
7. Grigor Dimitrov – Dimitrov is still in search of his first Grand Slam final appearance and this could be the time to do it based on form (Cincinnati champion) and the field (four of the top 11 out).
6. Dominic Thiem – Slam titles–or at least a French Open trophy or two–are in Thiem’s future, but can he do anything on any other surface?
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Although this U.S. Open is the best opportunity for everyone outside of the Big 4, Tsonga has not won a match since the Wimbledon second round so he may not be able to capitalize.
5. Marin Cilic – Due to an adductor issue, the 2014 U.S. Open champion has not played since his mental and physical meltdown in the Wimbledon final.
9-12 in order of U.S. Open chances
11. Roberto Bautista Agut – Bautista Agut is an awesome is a stellar 37-15 for his 2017 campaign. He will make the second week, but can he beat anyone in the top 10?
12. Pablo Carreno Busta – The Spaniard has struggled with injuries since his run to the French Open quarters, but he is also capable on other surfaces when healthy.
10. John Isner – Isner would be a trendy pick to make a run at this U.S. Open–except that he can never avoid the long, five-set matches that prevent him from doing much at majors.
9. David Goffin – Since his freak ankle injury sustained near a baseline wall at Roland Garros, Goffin owns a mere 3-4 match record as he attempts to get back in business.
13-16 in order of U.S. Open chances
14. Nick Kyrgios – All of a sudden, Kyrgios recovered from his recurring hip issue and made an outstanding run to the Cincinnati final. With momentum and health, watch out.
15. Tomas Berdych – Berdych took advantage of a favorable draw and an injured Novak Djokovic to reach the Wimbledon semis, but the veteran Czech appears to be past his prime and has slumped to No. 19 in the rankings.
13. Jack Sock – Sock has been victimized by bad luck at more than a few U.S. Opens. He has cooled off since a hot start to the season, so he may underwhelm in New York yet again.
16. Lucas Pouille – The 2016 Pouille who made a run to the U.S. Open quarters ain’t walkin’ through that door. Due in part to injury, the Frenchman is 0-3 in his last three matches dating back to Wimbledon.
17-24 in order of U.S. Open chances
24. Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro is healthy for the most part, but he was plagued by bad draws early in the year and simply hasn’t played well of late. He could get a good draw in NYC as a top 24 seed.
19. Gilles Muller – The left-handed Luxembourgian is especially dangerous on grass (Wimbledon quarterfinals this summer), but he could also do damage in New York if the courts aren’t too slow.
17. Sam Querrey – Like Muller, Querrey–a Wimbledon semifinalist–can beat almost anyone in fast conditions. A second straight successful major should be in the cards.
18. Gael Monfils – Who knows what kind of physical state Monfils will be in during the next fortnight? He pulled off a miracle against Kei Nishikori in Montreal but then lost to Bautista Agut and withdrew from Cincinnati.
21. David Ferrer – No one is enjoying a greater resurgence over the past two months than Ferrer. The 35-year-old Spaniard took a set off Federer in Montreal and advanced to the Cincinnati semis.
22. Fabio Fognini – Like Monfils, Fognini could either go all the way to the semis or lose in the first round. Who knows? The Italian has played only two hard-court matches since reaching the Miami semis.
23. Mischa Zverev – Court speed slowed down with the arrival of the clay-court swing, and the Australian Open quarterfinalist has never gotten back–not even on grass.
20. Albert Ramos-Vinolas – Ramos-Vinolas is in the midst of his best season on tour, but he is hopeless at the U.S. Open (2-6 lifetime record and zero trips past the second round).
25-32 in order of U.S. Open chances
25. Karen Khachanov – Some top 8 seed may rue the fact that he could meet Khachanov as early as round three. The Russian has cooled off a bit since the French Open, but he is seriously dangerous.
28. Kevin Anderson – If Anderson’s withdrawal from Winston-Salem (elbow) was just precautionary, then he could be a force in NYC. He has recovered from other injuries to turn in a nice year.
31. Feliciano Lopez – Lopez always seems to be good for one out-of-nowhere run at some big event every season. The conditions in New York may allow him to do just that at the U.S. Open.
26. Richard Gasquet – Gasquet was one 49-ball rally after from upsetting Zverev at the Montreal Masters and preventing the 20-year-old German from eventually capturing the title. That’s still a good showing for the Frenchman.
29. Diego Schwartzman – Schwartzman isn’t going to upset a big-hitting top player, but he also isn’t going to lose to many guys ranked below him. As a seed, he should be able to win multiple matches.
30. Adrian Mannarino – Mannarino is lethal on grass, but he is also solid on hard courts. Like Schwartzman, the left-handed Frenchman will beat people he’s supposed to beat and lose to people who should beat him.
32. Robin Haase – Haase is not used to being seed at slams. He shouldn’t be seeded this time around, but a whole host of withdrawals have the 36th-ranked Dutchman at No. 31.
27. Pablo Cuevas – The Uruguayan is always tipped to be a massive threat on clay, but he has never done anything at a big tournament even on that surface. He won’t do anything at the U.S. Open, either.
[polldaddy poll=9815979]
thoughts?
According to me either my No.1 FAV “Fed the GOAT” or my NO.2 FAV handsome sascha will win the USO. These are the 2 front runners for me. My 3rd & 4th picks are Dimi and Nadal. I just hope Nadal can retool his game to be more aggressive on his serves and returns with active court movement and not play with a clay mindset…else the clay will crumble!lol
Kevin Anderson and Bautista-Agut are my dark horses to reach SF’s or atleast the QF’s.
The hard season is still young and there are many young studs wanting to make an impact (Leaning on my young Handsome stud, sascha to win it all!). Anyone of them can make a run to the finals. So, let’s keep our fingers crossed and await tons of surprises and upsets next week at USO!
If Federer goes down Dimi just might win it. Too soon for AZ – he’ll win it some year, just not this one.
I agree about Sascha Zverev. He will win it, but not this year.
I am surprised that Murray is playing. He s coming off an injury and no warm up tournaments, no match play. I can’t see him going far.
I think Ricky’s breakdown by seeding groups was very enlightening. Kyrgios looks to be getting back in form. Dimi is coming off the biggest win if his career. That should help give him confidence going into the USO.
It will be interesting to see if a dark horse or a few of them, emerge to make a deep run. With some key players missing this year, things could get interesting.
It was supposed to be all about Rafa and Fed. But will that be the story or will others step up?
I am hoping that Rafa can get his game back to make a serious run here.
Yeah, Fed is the clear favorite, Nick is second IMO. Sasha may as well lose early if the draw is tricky (don’t trust his GS appearance!), Muller again may capitalize to go deep…Delpo just not able to play consistently any more, Murray and Cilic should have stayed home and rest…Tsonga and Birdman just not there to make any significant move…Dimi may be able to go deep depending on the draw but to win the whole thing? I doubt it!
Rafa is a big question mark! If he continued to play with ‘not to lose’ attitude he would be out soon! Hope both Moya and Toni could help by simply being present! Rafa’s shots are filled with misshittings, he will need to improve a lot to become dangerous to his opponents…
It’s too early to make any predictions imo, has to look at the draw. I think the draw plays an important role in determining who will most likely be the winner.
I don’t see anyone as the clear fave over any others, perhaps a few of them have about the same chances – Dimi (but he may yet flame out like he did at FO and Wimbledon); A Zverev and Kyrgios( but both yet to prove that they can go deep at a slam); Fed (back issue); Rafa (form issue).
I would personally put even an injured Cilic’s chances higher than Tsonga’s. Tsonga is just garbage lately.