Preseason predictions for the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals field

The calendar will soon turn to 2024, so it’s time to make predictions for the prestigious field of eight at the annual Nitto ATP Finals. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner are obviously among the favorites to make it to Turin. Who could join them there? Let’s take a look!

1. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slams, came within a set of winning a fourth, and triumphed at the Nitto ATP Finals. Needless to say, he was the dominant player on tour in 2023 and probably should be ahead by even more than 2,390 points (his current lead over Carlos Alcaraz in the rankings). Djokovic may be 36 years old, but he is the fittest guy on tour and is showing no signs of slowing down. Another year-end No. 1 ranking should be expected for the Serb.

2. Carlos Alcaraz – Alcaraz missed the Australian Open and wasn’t 100 percent until March (and he was hobbled at the French Open). That’s one argument for him to finish No. 1 in 2024–if he stays healthy the entire way. Of course, don’t forget that Djokovic was unable to play either Indian Wells or Miami and he still found himself comfortably atop the rankings at the end of 2023. It’s likely just a matter of time before the Spaniard adds to his year-end No. 1 count, but for now I will leave him at No. 2.

3. Jannik Sinner – Sinner soaring to No. 4 in the world was my best pick in my 2023 year-end predictions. The 22-year-old Italian was incredible from start to finish this past season and was especially impressive throughout the fall swing, setting the stage for an even more amazing 2024 campaign. Arguments can be made for Sinner to reach No. 1 as soon as this coming year. I’ll continue to be high on him, but will settle for No. 3 simply because Djokovic and Alcaraz are so good.

4. Daniil Medvedev – With Djokovic and Alcaraz sharing the Grand Slams and Sinner on fire late in the year, Medvedev was mostly under the radar in 2023. Nonetheless, he turned in another outstanding year. The Russian captured a surprise clay-court Masters 1000 title in Rome, reached the semis of Wimbledon, and finished runner-up to Djokovic at the U.S. Open. If he can keep that up on all three surfaces, this self-proclaimed hard-court specialist will stay in the top four.

5. Alexander Zverev – Zverev was basically useless for the first two months of the season after making his return from a nasty ankle injury sustained at the 2022 French Open. Despite that, the 26-year-old German still finished at No. 7 in the world. He came on strong late after he was 100 percent physically, so it stands to reason that he will be better in 2024 from start to finish. Winning his first major isn’t out of the question; if he does, Zverev could be even higher than No. 5.

6. Andrey Rublev – I had Rublev out of the top eight in 2023, but I’m not going to make that same mistake again. It’s far from a guarantee that he will ever win a major (at this point just a long-overdue semifinal appearance would be nice!), but the Russian is far too consistent to be left off the list. Rublev never has a bad year; he barely ever has a bad tournament. Most importantly, he is great on every surface and that allows him to rack up points nonstop throughout the year.

7. Hubert Hurkacz – Hurkacz has been a frustrating player to watch in recent seasons. He has been good–but not as good as he should be given that he is the prototypical player for huge success in this day and age: 6’5”, moves incredibly well for a big guy, and has the biggest serve on tour (in terms of sheer number of aces). Aside from a run to the Wimbledon semifinals at the expense of an injured Roger Federer in 2021, Hurkacz has been a disaster at Grand Slams. If he can clean that up even a little bit, the 26-year-old Pole should find himself in the year-end championship.

8. Alex de Minaur – It is true that De Minaur’s ceiling is low relatively to everyone else on this list. There is only so high he can go with limited offensive weaponry. That being said, sneaking into the top eight is not out of the question. The thinking here is that the top four (and perhaps even the top six), will hog so many points that it may not require a whole lot to reach No. 7 or No. 8. De Minaur is already up to 12th in the rankings and that was even without doing much of anything at Grand Slams in 2023.

Alternates

9. Holger Rune – Admittedly, Rune has every reason to remain in the top eight. He has peaked as high as No. 4 and is presumably only getting better at 20 years old. However, he already has a history of injuries and general physical issues–plus he didn’t make quite as many strides in 2023 as most people anticipated. The Dane was lucky to make it to the Wimbledon quarterfinals this past summer and will need to be more consistent at slams if he wants to make a return trip to Turin.

10. Dominic Thiem – Call me crazy, but talent-wise I think Thiem remains at least somewhere close to the top of the sport. If he can produce just one or two good results at some point in the relatively early stages of the 2024 season, his confidence will be restored in time to make a real run. Moreover, there are so many points available on clay that dirtballers like Thiem always have a better chance than others to climb high in the rankings.

Also check out my 2024 Grand Slam predictions