Paris R3 previews and picks: Federer vs. Isner, Nadal vs. Anderson

FedRoger Federer and Rafael Nadal will resume their Paris campaigns on Thursday. They appear to have tough third-round matchups on their hands with John Isner and Kevin Anderson, respectively.

(13) John Isner vs. (3) Roger Federer

Federer and Isner will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the second time in less than two months when they clash in round three of the BNP Paribas Masters on Thursday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in favor of Federer, who beat Isner 7-6(0), 7-6(6), 7-5 during fourth-round action at the U.S. Open. Isner’s lone victory came in his opponent’s home of Switzerland via a four-set Davis Cup upset on clay in 2012. Federer is 4-0 against the American on hard courts (all outdoors).

Although the 34-year-old may not be quite at the level he showcased this summer, he is riding another wave of momentum after losing his Shanghai opener to Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Federer held off Rafael Nadal to capture a seventh Basel title on Sunday and he hammered Andreas Seppi to kick off his Paris campaign in style. Isner punched his ticket to the last 16 by taking care of Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-4 on Wednesday. The world No. 13 is 44-24 for the season and a modest 7-4 during this fall stretch, which is generally his least favorite time of year. Isner will make this one competitive, but his serve is no secret to Federer–who should once again be able to handle it well enough to progress.

Pick: Federer in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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(11) Kevin Anderson vs. (7) Rafael Nadal

For most of the night on Wednesday it looked like Dominic Thiem would get a shot at Nadal in the third round. Instead, it will be Anderson going up against the Spaniard for the third time in his career. Anderson trailed Thiem by a set and a break, saved one match point in the second, and stormed back for a 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 7-6(5) victory that required two hours and 44 minutes of tennis. Thus continues an awesome year for the 12th-ranked South African, who reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open and is still standing with a 46-23 record.

It may not continue much longer. Anderson has been dealing with a shoulder injury at the end of a long 2015 campaign and an epic struggle with Thiem certainly will not help matters. The No. 11 seed is also 0-2 lifetime against Nadal and 0-5 in total sets heading into Thursday night’s tilt. Nadal prevailed 6-2, 7-6(6) at the 2010 Rogers Cup and 7-5, 6-1, 6-4 at the Australian Open early this season. The sixth-ranked Spaniard is 13-2 this fall and playing with arguably more confidence right now than at any point in 2015. After finishing runner-up in Basel, Nadal destroyed Lukas Rosol 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday–a far cry from their third-set tiebreaker match last week. The seventh seed should capitalize on a fatigued opponent without too much trouble.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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273 Comments on Paris R3 previews and picks: Federer vs. Isner, Nadal vs. Anderson

  1. Nadal absolutely destroys Anderson tomorrow. Anderson played 244 total points today while Rafa played 94. Anderson will be mentally and physically exhausted after todays 3 set marathon.

    • You are right But If my app is right Anderson played 246 points today He won 126 Thiem won 120. Rafa Nadal played 96 points winning 60 and Rosol won 36.

      • Forgive my typos. I knew the point differential was Anderson playing 150 more pts than Rafa did. He should be way too fresh tomorrow.

    • even if Anderson played half of the points and won them ALL he would still be destroyed by Rafa…Anderson couldn’t engage in rallies and was losing that battle with Thiem… Rafa will make his life difficult the minute he returns Anderson’s serve…

      Rafa in 2…
      Fed in 2…and no TB…
      Andy in 2
      Kei in 3
      Novak in 2
      Tsonga in 3
      Ferrer in 3
      Wawa in 2

      Vamos Rafa!

  2. Rafa i think will lose first set to Anderson, he takes a while to adjust to those big servers!! Its raining heavily here is Saint Lucia, a bit gloomy, hope this will not be the same foe tennis today! Vamos, Rafa!!!

  3. Giants should be used to warm up the crowd before the real tennis players come on.

    Fed too a pill in the 2nd set. I don’t think he is playing badly at all. There is not that much you can do against servbots. Rafa says it’s like a penalty shoot-out.

  4. Priceless piece of commentating. Dimi edged Ferrer to take lst set. Commie writes Ferrer off saying “‘Dimitrov is now just six games away from going forward to next round”.
    Pleeezze!!!!

    Daveed’s answer to that – a breadstick for Dimi 🙂

    It might be curtains for Ferrer. Down 2:3 and struggling to beat off BPs

  5. I agree with Ricky, it’s good to have different types of players although basing 90 % of your game on your serve usually doesn’t pay (with some exceptions = Ivanisevic, Philippoussis, etc…)

  6. Really hoping Federer uses his experience to win this and spare me having to watch any more Isner matches. I like the man but lose the will to live during the majority of his matches.

  7. I think I saw an interview in which he said that he did do some basket ball at first but I don’t recall very well, looks like we’re going to a TB

    • vamosrafa,

      I only saw the first set and then had to go out. But if you say that Fed was not 100%, then I trust your view always.

  8. if Fed has some type of injury this is a blessing in disguise…he did not play near as god as in that match with Rafa but can’t take away anything from Isner…he was really going for his shots…I am a bit surprised Isner could sustain some rallies with Fed…

  9. Wow! I came home to find out that Isner beat Fed! I had to get some things done so that I could be ready for Rafa time!

    I will have to catch that one later to see what happened.

  10. Assuming that Rafa gets by Anderson, I am looking forward to a possible meeting with Stan. Also assuming that he gets past Troicki!

    I never like to take anything for granted, although I am feeling good about how Rafa is playing now.

  11. I just checked the final score for the Isner/Fed match. So that third set was also a TB! Now that is surprising. Fed losing two TB’s in one match? I am looking forward to the replay of that one.

    But now I am ready for Rafa! Is it time for his match yet?

  12. Oh, that explains why he’s doing so poorly. At least he’s been fighting back in the second set. Berdy’s playing well, but this is not the real Tsonga.

  13. I think Isner is taller. What about Karlovic? Isn’t he almost 7 feet tall?

    I think that Anderson is 6 feet 8 inches.

  14. This is not a good start for Rafa. He couldn’t convert two break points, but when Anderson put him in the same position he managed to get it done.

    Rafa needs to sharpen it up here.

  15. Yes, it’s quite frustrating. Then he is the one who gets broken. Anderson is playing well now. I thought Rafa started off well, being aggressive with his shots and ROS but then he got sloppy.

  16. can’t believe this…Rafa lost two opportunities in the first game and then let this tall machine break him…why is Rafa doing this???…Anderson is pretty good in the rallies though, to my big surprise…I never thought he could move well…he so much relies on his serve…

    Vamos Rafa!!!!

  17. Rafa has really made things difficult for himself. Anytime you give up an early break to a big serving guy, it can be trouble. That’s all Anderson needed.

    Some of Rafa’s shot selections and choices were not that good. He needs to just stay focused and get it together.

    No more of these early breaks of serves!

  18. Anderson is playing better than I expected. It’s true that a lot of predictions have gone down the drain today.

    Rafa needs to be calm and get going here.

  19. Rafa just needs to hold his serve so he’s not playing from behind. I am hoping that he will make the necessary adjustments as he’s been doing lately.

  20. Serve stats not bad from Rafa, but Anderson is winning 90% of first serve points. Anderson is making a lot more winners. If he is tired, then his serve is really helping him to get some easy points,

  21. Anderson is getting the better of Rafa. He double faulted twice in one game, couldn’t get a first serve in and yet Rafa couldn’t get the break. That’s the best shot he’s had at breaking Anderson since early in the first set.

  22. The key in that last service game of Anderson’s is that if Rafa had broken him then he would have been serving for the set. I don’t agree that this is not Rafa’s night. He had his chance early in the first set with two break chances but didn’t get it done. Now he had another chance in that game from Anderson, yet he hit a forehand UE into the net.

    How come Anderson is outplaying Rafa in these rallies? He’s a guy who never beat Rafa. So I am not buying this business of him being just too good.

  23. I think I must be watching a different match from all of you. It’s not how I see it at all other than the fact Anderson is playing at a different level than against any other opponent. Comme d’habitude.

  24. No one is saying Anderson is too good, it’s just that he’s performing very well. I also don’t like Rafa’s ROS today plus he seems a tad slow..

  25. Rafa’s ROS has not been good at all. The tennis channel commies keep saying that he’s standing too far back and giving Anderson too much space.

    I am not looking forward to a TB! Talk about nerves!

    Anderson didn’t reinvent the wheel in this match. Rafa has been able to beat the likes of Karlovic and Isner. When you get a break chance, you have to convert it. Or if not, then you must hold your serve. Rafa did not do that in the second set.

    He missed a crucial chance in that game where Anderson double faulted a few times. He looked so shaky and I thought that was Rafa’s chance.

    I almost don’t want to watch a TB.

  26. Of the big servers Anderson has by far the best all round game which means he will be dangerous in the tiebreak. I agree with Shirling Rafa has not really got a handle on returning Anderson’s serve tonight.

  27. I feel like I am about to scream! First Anderson DF’s and then Rafa gives it right back by missing an I/O forehand. Then Anderson misses a shot so Rafa is up 4-2.

    Rafa – HOLD YOUR SERVE!

    • lol….. i tell yuh!!! When was the last time we have seen this….that forehand on match point for Anderson……….wow…..just wow!!!

  28. I have NO CLUE, how rafa played that forehand half volley and then that reflex volley. Anybody could have panicked! Wow..

    This is definitely in the bag now, in my view!

  29. Well Rafa, it’s nice to see you back! Hello!

    That was way too hard on the nerves!

    Is that what it took to wake up Rafa?

    Yikes! We have to sit through another set of this!

  30. Rafa isn’t going for his shots, very tentative, ROS are awful, and the FH seems to be disintegrating as the match goes along.. he’s arriving late to many shots and he’s not moving fast enough.

    • I think that’s a bit of a harsh assessment….maybe at times but overall Rafa’s ROS i think is unbelievable……the only thing I feel is that Rafa is standing way way to far behind the baseline!!!!

  31. Ricky, you missed it, oh no!! it was Epic! Rafa wasted to mini breaks (one from an Anderson’s DF) to give MP to Anderson on Rafa’s serve, which he somehow managed to save with an awesome volley.. then it’s Rafa’s turn for set point which he clinches with a blind close to the net volley.. just amazing stuff

  32. Chalk that one down to a match he should have lost but came out with the win.

    This is aging me rapidly.

    Bless you Rafa. Sleep well.

  33. I can’t believe it. Rafa won. Tough, tough match.

    I thought Rafa would win more easily before the match started, but Anderson was in charge in the first 2 sets and Rafa saved the day.

    Vamos Rafa!

  34. Rafa seems to have a bit of problem with his left knee. Thank goodness he wins the match now. He stays ahead of Berdych in the race points. Love his never give up attitude and persist till the end. Hope he improves in all areas in his next match.

    • He flexed his left leg and touched his left knee in the midst of the third set. I thought that might be the reason he started missing his first serves and DF’ing. Hope that’s nothing serious and he would come out all guns blazing against Stan tomorrow.

    • I dont think he stole the match….Rafa was leading in the tie-break until those errors…….winning it was what he was supposed to do even if i thought he might have lost it!

      Rafa if he beats Wawa might play Novak…….sigh!!!!

  35. Great match from Rafa!

    Especially at critical moments.

    Bodes well for the future.

    Hopefully nadine won’t be too upset when Rafa takes put her closet fav in the quarters.

    Vamos!!!

  36. I have to add, Rafa is like Fed, uses his guile and tennis accumen and experiences to beat a tough opponent who has the upper hand for most parts of the match. Very intelligent play by Rafa in the end even when not playing well and that’s why Fedal is/are the best!

  37. No matter what happens in the last two tournaments this year, Nadal is back. If no injury comes bothering him in the next couple of months, he’s going to be red hot in 2016, in AO and in Roland Garros. Don’t know if he is back to competing and winning against Djokovic, but even at his best, Nadal always had a tough match against the magnificent Serb. But some of the points he has been hitting today against Anderson at the end of the match makes me think he is definitely playing Top 3 level of tennis right now. Of course Anderson has never been a great match finisher, but if you just watch the highlights today, you will know what I am talking about..The higher the quality of the highlights from Nadal, the more he is confident and the better he is playing. As simple as that.

  38. I don’t think that Rafa is playing at a top 3 level just yet. Especially that infernal serve. I noticed that Anderson’s serve stats dropped as the match went on. In particular, the percentage of first serves won. He was at 100% for the first set and I think even the second set.

    This one really took it out of me. I was too exhausted when it ended even to post anything! 🙂

    Stan finished his match hours ago and he’s been able to sit back and watch this one. I just don’t like Rafa losing his serve early and then losing the first set. While it’s great to see him mount one of signature comebacks, I think he’s rolling the dice. That won’t cut it against the top players. He is going to have to do something about that second serve. Forehand still needs some work.

    I didn’t notice anything with the left knee. I sure hope that everything is okay. That’s another reason why I worry about these three set matches. At some point, it can take it out of Rafa.

    I am happy, relieved and can finally relax and finish dinner! Rafa lives to fight another day!

    I have been replaying that unbelievable TB over and over, especially those last few shots. Now that was vintage Rafa. As hard as it is to watch, this is the real Rafa. This is what he has always done – when his back is against the wall, it brings out his best. This time he had to fight off a match point. Closer than with Rosol in Basel, when he was two points from losing the match.

    Why do I get the feeling that this is what Rafa loves? 🙂

    • NNY:

      Anderson lst set 81% (86% points) 2nd set 63%(81% points) 3rs set 50% (58% points)

      Rafa 1st set 68%(74% points) 2nd set 76% (92% points) 3rd set 65% (77% points)

  39. yeah, Rafa played great match…there were errors here and there but he was very strong and hit some brutal winners…it’s not easy to play this rejuvenated Anderson…the South African served big, was moving well, hitting deep and forcing Rafa to stand even further behind the baseline…the biggest value I see in Rafa’s fortitude and never give up attitude…it all smelled like one of those irretrievable defeats which Rafa majestically have turned into victory…Deep inside while watching this drama I had this inner feeling that Rafa would emerge victorious..i haven’t had one of those in a while…

    the Rafa of old is knocking on the door! He is about to step in and then nothing will be the same…I really feel, if healthy, Rafa will make the difference in 2016!

    and some of those winners Rafa hit are really worth remembering! it was pure class!

    Vamos Rafa!

  40. Great stuff from Nadal. Also Anonymous, big servers r good for game because they test everyone and it is interesting to see underdog big servers score huge upsets and victories. Like ivanisevic winning Wimbledon. Personally I usually root for big john in fact I want him to win whole title even though that’s pretty unlikely but not impossible cuz he’s a big server and his groundies are improving. Best groundstrokes big server in Anderson though by far. Raonic has improved them too of course but his injury has disallowed us from really seeing him play much this season.

  41. U.Toni’s interview before and Rafa’s interview after the match vs. K.Anderson:

    (U.Toni answers in French, see subtitles in English;
    the announcer & Toni & Rafa talk about Rafa’s right ankle: UT says it hurts a little but nothing serious and Rafa says it’s a similar problem he had in the Beijing final but it’s fine…)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rnhvrN8c6I

  42. So it was Rafa’s ankle that bothered him before the match. Also, Rafa said it himself in that interview.- that this was a match that a few months ago he would not have won!

    It’s quite interesting to hear him say it. He knows that there’s a real difference now. It was cute when the interviewer asked him if he could remember the last time he had match point and was able to win! Rafa laughed and said he can’t think of that now. So charming and really happy! 🙂

  43. Benny G says:
    November 6, 2015 at 12:31 am
    Great stuff from Nadal. Also Anonymous, big servers r good for game because they test everyone
    *************************
    This would be true if they were spread evenly amongst the top players, but Rafa has had his fair share of them lately; one after the other whilst some just play namby pamby ball shufflers with no big game and come up looking invincible.

    • I agree its frustrating. Rafa has now faced Ivo, Raonic, Rosol (×2), Cilic and Anderson. Also guys like Pospisil, Sock and Tsonga comes with big serves too. Rafa has to deal with them one after another on his least favorite surface. Its almost a miracle that he survived so many tough matches, sometimes at the brink of losing and yet he came through, except against Tsonga at Shanghai.

  44. Federer:
    “It’s tough going out of a tournament without losing your serve,” the third-seeded Federer said.

    ******************************************
    This demonstrates what I mean about the giants. It doesn’t matter how well their opponent is play they can just simply take the racquet out of their hands with aces. It’s very frustrating.

  45. The speed of the court is a moveable feast, depending on who people want to win. Those who want Stan to win say the court suits his game; quite what that is based on, escapes me and those who want Rafa to win say the opposite. Even the commies say the court is fast for one match and do a complete volte face for the next one depending on who is playing.

    I though he court was supposed to be as slow as treacle which is bad news for the big servers, but they are not doing too badly, are they. I have never seen Anderson serve so well. And what about Isner taking Federer out?

    It makes interesting reading but luckily, the match still has to be played.

  46. I think this is the moment to admit, in public, I found Robbie Koenig’s commentating last night excellent. It was even handed, relevant and enlightening. I even smiled at his bon mots!

    #There’s a first time for everybody 🙂

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