Paris R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Rosol, Tsonga vs. Bautista Agut

Tsonga 2Familiar and unfriendly foes Rafael Nadal and Lukas Rosol will face each other again on Wednesday in Paris. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also in second-round action against Roberto Bautista Agut.

(Q) Lukas Rosol vs. (7) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Rosol will be squaring off for the second time in as many weeks when they clash in round two of the BNP Paribas Masters. They just met in the Basel first round, with Nadal storming back from a set and a break down to prevail 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4). The former world No. 1 leads the head-to-head series 3-1, having lost to Rosol only at Wimbledon in 2012. Nadal has since won three in a row–including last summer at the All-England Club.

From just about out of nowhere, Nadal has picked up plenty of momentum heading in the last regular-season tournament of 2015. But it won’t be Nadal’s final event, because he qualified with room to spare for the World Tour Finals. The sixth-ranked Spaniard finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Beijing, reached the Shanghai semifinals, and made a run to the Basel title match (lost to Roger Federer in three sets). Nadal’s 11-2 record in tournament action during the fall swing is the second best showing of his career, having previously compiled a 10-0 post-U.S. Open mark in 2005 (did not play the year-end championship).

It has already been a stellar week for Rosol, who had to qualify just to get into the main draw. The 66th-ranked Czech then held off Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 on Tuesday. Although Rosol is playing decent tennis, Nadal has raised his level even in the short time since they last played each other. A more confident Nadal on a surface slower than that in Basel is a disaster waiting to happen for Rosol.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Tsonga and Bautista Agut will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Wednesday. Their only previous encounter came earlier this season at the Rogers Cup, where Tsonga survived a 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-5 thriller. Bautista Agut has done well to get another shot at the Frenchman. The 24th-ranked Spaniard has played a ton of recent tennis, having finished runner-up in back-to-back weeks in Moscow (to Marin Cilic) and Valencia (to Joao Sousa). But he got right back in gear to overcome Pierre-Hugues Herbert 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 on Tuesday.

A former champion (2008) and runner-up (2011) of this event, Tsonga earned an opening-round bye as the ninth seed. The world No. 10 has been inconsistent this year but he has posted some outstanding results of late–a title in Metz and a runner-up performance in Shanghai. It would not be surprising to see him put on another show on indoor hard courts in front of his home fans. A worn-out Bautista Agut is likely to get powered off the court in this one.

Pick: Tsonga in 2

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34 Comments on Paris R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Rosol, Tsonga vs. Bautista Agut

  1. The Rosol Wimbledon win is a good example of why the context of any match should be taken into account.

    Rafa had just completed an arduous clay court season where he had beaten Djokovic on three consecutive occasions, culminating with RG, for the first time since Nole had inflicted a run of painful losses in 2011 (plus the marathon AO ’12 final.}

    This is pure speculation but the effort required, combined with insufficient time for preparation on grass, must have impacted on his dodgy knees because immediately after Wimbledon he was forced to withdrawl from the Olympics. He admitted this broke his heart. He was not to play on the circuit for seven months while his knees were sorted out. Ergo. What looked like a defeat to a lowly ranked player was not the humiliating catastrophe so often portrayed. What it did do is kick start Rosol’s career and three years later he is still a loose cannon capable of causing upsets.

    I trust Rafa learnt his lesson last week and doesn’t cut it so finely today. I’m hedging my bets for Rafa to win in three sets – although hopefully he’ll get it done in straight sets.

    • I’ve just watched their Basel match again this morning and all Rafa’s woes in the first set and a half were of his own making by UEs and feeding Rosol balls to hit winners. Rafa says it’s because it was his first indoor match for a year and he needed time to get used to it. Rosol, of course, had already played a match. Not sure if he went through qualifying.

      I hope Rafa digs his heels in straight away and not mess about dropping his serve.

      Vamos Rafa!

  2. Tsonga is riding on the crest of the wave. Boosted by a noisy crowd on his home turf it’s hard to imagine him not doing it in two blistering sets.

    Tsonga in 2

  3. I’ve just watched their Basel match again this morning and all Rafa’s woes in the first set and a half were of his own making by UEs and feeding Rosol balls to hit winners. Rafa says it’s because it was his first indoor match for a year and he needed time to get used to it. Rosol, of course, had already played a match. Not sure if he went through qualifying.

    I hope Rafa digs his heels in straight away and not mess about dropping his serve.

    Vamos Rafa!
    ***

  4. I did not see Rosol’s match yesterday as I generally dislike seeing him on the screen…But I am wondering: was he twitching, doing those convulsive fidgets and making strange noises as he was when Rafa served? I tend to believe he has developed those specifically to annoy Rafa…

    • No. His does it in a lot of his matches. Not exclusively for Rafa. I’m sure it is a deliberate ploy. It must be so difficult for opponents to block it our while they are serving. Rafa knows it is deliberate but he must learn not to show it’s having the desired effectt – will only make the Rissole do it more knowing Rafa is agitated about it.

    • natashao2013 ( at 11:19 am),

      It’s “something Rosol has been known to do with regularity throughout his career.” [TennisNow, Oct. 26, 2015]

  5. Please Rafa, don’t mock about and dispatch Rosol in straights. For those who are predicting Rosol in straights… if he couldn’t do it a week ago (when he should have), how’s he going to do it now? no way.

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