A Friday showdown in Paris between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych will impact the battle for the No. 1 ranking and the race to the World Tour Finals. Quarterfinal action also features Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
(7) Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Andy Murray
The final spot in the World Tour Finals may come down to Murray vs. Berdych in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Masters on Friday. Murray, needless to say, is part of a much different race–for the No. 1 ranking in the world. But he will play a huge role in determining the London fates of Berdych and Dominic Thiem, with Berdych qualifying if he upsets Murray and Thiem going to the year-end championship for the first time if Murray wins (unless Jo-Wilfried Tsonga wins the title).
Current form, of course, heavily favors the second-ranked Scot. He has won six of his last eight tournaments and has continued his hot streak this week with defeats of Fernando Verdasco and Lucas Pouille. Berdych has slumped since Wimbledon and is out of the top 10 for the first time since the summer of 2010 (currently 11th). The Czech is still alive for London thanks to Paris victories over Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. Berdych is a respectable 6-9 lifetime against Murray, but he has lost five in a row and has not defeated the three-time major champion since 2013. There is no reason to think Berdych’s losing streak against Murray won’t hit six by the end of Friday.
Pick: Murray in 2 losing 8-10 games
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(11) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (4) Milos Raonic
Raonic and Tsonga will be facing each other for just the fifth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Paris semifinals. The head-to-head series is tied up at two wins apiece, with Tsonga taking the first two in 2012 and 2013 before Raonic’s rise up the rankings coincided with straight-set victories over the Frenchman in 2014 and 2016 (most recently at the Madrid Masters). Tsonga has won each of their previous hard-court encounters, whereas Raonic’s victories have come on clay.
This matchup almost didn’t happen, as Tsonga not only got bageled in a set by Kei Nishikori on Thursday but also fought off two match points with Nishikori serving at 5-3, 40-15 in the third. The 2008 Paris champion ended up prevailing 0-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) in exactly two hours. Raonic has struggled since finishing runner-up at Wimbledon, but he still registers at an impressive fifth in the rankings and has picked up Paris wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and Pablo Cuevas (the latter in a three-set contest that lasted a mere one hour and 22 minutes). With home-court advantage, Tsonga should be able to get the best of an opponent who has cooled off since they last squared off this spring.
Pick: Tsonga in 3
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