Paris QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Djokovic vs. Berdych

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will be hoping to snag spots in the Paris semifinals when they take the court on Friday. Standing in their respective ways are Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.

(4) Stan Wawrinka vs. (7) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Wawrinka will be facing each other for the 16th time in their careers and for the second time this fall when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Masters on Friday night. Nadal extended his head-to-head series dominance to 13-2 by hammering Wawrinka 6-2, 6-1 in last month’s Shanghai quarters. The Spaniard is 8-1 on hard courts (2-0 indoors), with his only such loss coming in the 2014 Australian Open final. Wawrinka’s second victory came earlier this season on the clay courts of Rome via a 7-6(7), 6-2 decision.

Nadal is through to a  fourth consecutive quarterfinal, having previously reached finals in Beijing and Basel in addition to the Shanghai semis. But the world No. 6 almost bowed out of Paris on Thursday, when he saved one match point to overcome Kevin Anderson 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-2 in two hours and 26 minutes. Wawrinka has advanced with straight-set defeats of Bernard Tomic and Viktor Troicki. The fourth-ranked Swiss is 11-2 this fall and bouncing back nicely from a first-round Basel loss to Ivo Karlovic. Although the surface is conducive to Wawrinka’s game, by hard-court standards it also plays into Nadal’s hands. The world No. 1 should be able to bounce back in fine fashion from his third-round tussle, just as Anderson recovered to come within one point of beating Nadal after getting past Dominic Thiem in two hours and 44 minutes one day earlier.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Tomas Berdych

A similarly lopsided “rivalry” will be taking place when Djokovic and Berdych collide for the 22nd time on Friday. Djokovic owns a 19-2 record in the head-to-head series, including 16-0 on hard courts and 6-0 indoors. Both of their 2016 showdowns have required decisive third sets. Berdych pushed his opponent the distance in both Dubai and Monte-Carlo but lost 6-0, 5-7, 6-4 at the former and 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 at the latter. The Czech’s victories have come in the 2010 Wimbledon quarterfinals and at the 2013 Rome Masters.

Berdych had been thriving at 250-pointers while struggling at more prestigious events of late, so his 6-3, 6-4 rout of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Thursday came as a minor surprise. The world No. 5, who preceded that performance with a 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 defeat of Edouard Roger-Vasselin, is 57-18 for the season and 12-3 this fall. Djokovic has not yet reached peak form in Paris despite having showcased more than enough to see off Thomaz Bellucci and Gilles Simon in straight sets. The top-ranked Serb has not lost prior to the final of any tournament since the first tournament of the year in Doha (l. to Karlovic). Nothing suggests Berdych will be the one to end that impressive streak of Paris’ two-time defending champion.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 8-10 games

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