Paris QF previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Schwartzman, Raonic vs. Humbert

Diego Schwartzman can clinch the last spot in the Nitto ATP Finals when he goes up against Milos Raonic in the Paris quarterfinals on Friday. Milos Raonic, who is also in London contention, faces a red-hot Ugo Humbert.

(6) Diego Schwartzman vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

Schwartzman will be the eighth and final qualifier for the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals if he defeats Medvedev in the quarterfinals of the Rolex Paris Masters on Friday. The ninth-ranked Argentine has plenty of other paths to London even if he loses–such as if Milos Raonic and Pablo Carreno Busta fail to win the Paris title. Schwartzman has put himself in position for London with a late surge that includes a runner-up performance in Rome, a semifinal showing at the French Open, and a final appearance in Cologne. So far this week he has ousted Richard Gasquet and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in straight sets.

An impressive win over Alex de Minaur on Wednesday may be just what the doctor ordered to propel Medvedev toward a much-needed strong finish to the 2020 campaign. The fifth-ranked Russian has been struggling, but that also means he is well-rested for the final stretch of the season–much unlike what was the case in 2019. Schwartzman may be feeling a little bit of pressure for obvious reasons, so Medvedev–who leads this head-to-head series 3-0–should be able to maintain momentum after taking his final two sets against de Minaur 6-2, 6-2.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

(10) Milos Raonic vs. Ugo Humbert

Raonic is also in mathematical year-end championship contention, but he needs to win the Paris title and have Schwartzman lose to Medvedev. The 17th-ranked Canadian would have had a more realistic chance thanks in part to a runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Masters, but he lost in round two of the U.S. Open and then missed the French Open due to injury. Raonic is through to the last eight in Paris following straight-set defeats of Aljaz Bedene, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, and Marcos Giron. The No. 10 seed has struck 46 aces this week and has not been broken while facing only one break point.

Up next for Raonic is a first-ever meeting with Humbert, who is on fire at the moment. The 22-year-old Frenchman captured his second career ATP title two weeks ago in Antwerp and his current Paris run includes victories at the expense of Casper Ruud, No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Marin Cilic. All three matches went to three sets, including the first two in third-set tiebreakers. Humbert is clearly on his last legs physically, and Raonic is simply looking too good in these indoor hard-court conditions.

Pick: Raonic in 2