Paris SF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Dimitrov, Nadal vs. Shapovalov

November 1, 2019 Ricky Match previews 80

Only two seeds are left standing as the Paris semifinals arrive on Saturday, and they are top two players in the world. Novak Djokovic is going up against Grigor Dimitrov, while Rafael Nadal faces recent Stockholm winner Denis Shapovalov.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Djokovic was a question mark to end the 2019 campaign on his own terms after he retired from a U.S. Open match with a shoulder injury, but he has turned things around during the fall portion of the schedule. The world No. 1’s Asian swing included a title on Tokyo and a semifinal showing in Shanghai; now in Paris he has defeated Corentin Moutet, Kyle Edmund, and Stefanos Tsitsipas all in straight sets. After struggling at times with Moutet and Edmund, Djokovic destroyed Tsitsipas 6-1, 6-2 on Friday.

Up next for the four-time Paris champion is a 10th career contest against Dimitrov, who trails the head-to-head series 8-1. The Bulgarian has lost six in a row to Djokovic after most recently falling twice in 2018; 6-4, 6-1 at Queen’s Club and 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 at the Cincinnati Masters. Dimitrov’s 2019 campaign has been all over the place, but he finally finds himself with a winning record (22-20) thanks to a semifinal run at the U.S. Open and wins this week over Ugo Humbert, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, and Christian Garin. A steep step up in competition should result in the end of the road for Dimitrov, just as it did against Medvedev in the U.S. Open semis.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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Denis Shapovalov vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Shapovalov will be squaring off for the third time in their careers on Saturday. They split their two previous encounters, with Shapovalov scoring a 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) upset at the 2017 Montreal Masters before Nadal got the job done 6-4, 6-1 last spring in Rome. Shapovalov has earned another shot at the world No. 2 on a surface more favorable for the underdog following Paris defeats of Gilles Simon (via first-set retirement), Fabio Fognini, Alexander Zverev, and Gael Monfils. The 28th-ranked Canadian recently captured his first career title in Stockholm, so his form indoors right now is impressive.

Of course, this surface favored Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, as well, and it hardly mattered on Friday. Nadal followed up routine wins over Adrian Mannarino and Stan Wawrinka by beating Tsonga 7-6(4), 6-1 in the quarterfinals. The second-seeded Spaniard is now 14-0 on hard courts dating back to the summer (one Laver Cup victory included). A confident Nadal will pepper the Shapovalov one-hander with a steady diet of forehands and that will likely make the difference in what should be by far the more competitive semifinal.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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80 Comments on Paris SF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Dimitrov, Nadal vs. Shapovalov

  3. Incidentally Dimitrov beat Federer at USO before falling to Medvedev (I’m not really sure that it counts as a step up). He might as well do the same in Paris: beat Djokovic and lose to Nadal. Nole has the #1 spot pressure while Grigor has nothing to lose.
    Unless the Serb has an off day, he should dispatch the Bulgarian although I expect this to be the more competitive semifinal. So Djoker in 3.
    Shapo’s form is good, but he won Stockholm beating nobody then immediately fell in Vienna. Fognini and Zverev are not the most consistent players and Monfils didn’t probably have much left today (plus he was under pressure to qualify for London).
    That being said, I still think that Shapovalov will give Rafa a good run for his money and might even snatch a set in a TB.

    Reply

  4. Djokovic in 2 if he plays as he did today.

    Kinda on the fence re Nadal v Shapo – gonna say too close to call! Hard hitting/serving lefties tend to give Rafa fits. Of course Rafa gives them fits too!

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  5. Shapo is a lefty, I doubt Rafa will be hammering at Shapo’s BH the way he does against righties.

    Shapo has a very good serve, plus he rushes forward almost always after serving, taking away time from his opponent. His lefty SHBH is very solid and he has a good FH too. It’ll be a tough test for Rafa; Rafa will have to use all his guile plus great serving to beat Shapo. Shapo’s weakness is his ROS imo.

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  8. That point right there, I just knew it would have been the death of Dimi!!! He’s lost the WHOLE match bcos of just that dumb point!!! Its over!!

    That’s y the top will always remain at the top!!

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  9. Really stupid strategy from Dimi, why engaged in long rallies after long rallies with Djoko? Dimi is winning most of the shorter points so just keeps the points short! Nobody is going to beat Djoko in long rallies except maybe a Stan at his best!

    Why can’t these players realise and accept that and be more aggressive and move to the net more often? That stupid drive volley was the killer, how could Dimi miss an important point like that? To me he’s not gutsy enough, not willing to take risk but continued to engage in rallies with Djoko, doomed to fail.

    Djoko would just stretch, bent or simply crawled around just to get to any ball and returned them with interest. Dimi is not going to beat Djoko from the baseline.

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  16. It just says injury and no mention of what he has injured. IT is best if he withdraws from the O2 as well. Let no.1 go for a toss.

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  17. I really can’t stand it, he could get injured even during warm up, unbelievable!

    His whole body seems just taped up and anytime any part could get hurt when the tape gets out of place.

    What was he doing during warm up to get injured? This is the second time this season that he has to withdraw during SF stage. He’s not going to last if he keeps getting injuries so often during a season.

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  18. If he keeps saying he fears getting injured..this is what happens..he attracts injuries

    This means no 1 gone as he won’t even play wtf looks like

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  20. I have hope that he did this because he achieved what he wanted to in Paris.. only if he pulls out of wtf would i believe that it was a serious injury. Probably does not want to push himself too hard in Paris fighting Nole and shapo..

    That laver cup participation was utterly useless and counter productive. Also no way he is participating in the davis cup and maybe even the atp cup

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      • If he plays the semi and then withdrawing from the final will be even worse.. battling nole on an indoor court has little gains.. anyway lets see how serious the injury is.. if he plays wtf it will be the equivalent of fed pulling out in 2014 wtf and suiting up for davis cup a week later

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    • Who is to blame for his useless laver cup decision..only he himself..no points and just to honour committment made to fed..n in turn screw himself up.

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  23. If it is the abdomen, i see a similar thing occuring at the wtf. If he does not draw fed in his group he will play the rr matches and probably withdraw before the semi esp if it is against another big 3. If he draws fed in his group, he may play the first two matches and withdraw before the match against fed..
    There is no way rafa is beating fellow big 3s with a bum abdomen on an indoor court at the end of the season

    Dammit! So disapoointing😡😡😡😡

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  24. I feel Rafa is really fortunate that he’s playing in the modern era where medical science is so advance; had he played during the l980s or even 1990s, he would’ve retired from professional tennis early at a young age, instead of lasting so long the way he does right now.

    I wonder how Toni feels sometimes, seeing his nephew getting injured so often; does he feel deep down that it’s because he trained Rafa to grind so often, or he just believed it’s due to bad luck, that Rafa is prone to injuries?

    If not for Rafa’s tough mentality, I think he would’ve retired from professional tennis long ago, maybe during 2012 or 2015.

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    • Not really, because in the 80s/90s would he have played the same way and got injured so often? Its his choice (or his coaches)how to play .
      On the other thread, they were saying he had stomach problems??
      Im just really disappointed in this Paris Masters. Obviously efveryones saving themselves for the WTF

      Reply

      • Abdominal muscle strain, seems like he has this problem now and then after stopping and starting so often due to injuries.

        I wonder whether his trainer could help him strengthen his core muscles there, to prevent such problem going forward. I never hear of Djoko suffering from this problem, he must have done something right, same goes for Fed.

        Big Al, you do have a point though, about Rafa might not play the way he played now if he played in the 1980s/90s. He began his 2004 by being more offensive than the way he was after 2004, so in all likelihood, he would play that way at least, during the 1980s/90s if not being a full fledge S&V player. Perhaps without too much grinding, he wont suffer that many injuries.

        Come to think of it, the slowed down courts didn’t do his body much favor, indirectly ‘encourage’ his grinding ways during most of his career, not helped when he has Toni as his coach for most part of it, thankfully now he has Moya to help him plays some short point tennis with successes albeit not being able to prevent further injuries as damage is already done.

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  25. I am assuming the injury is minor. I believe Rafa and team are infact strategising for a best chance for year end #1. I also think neither us fans nor Rafa /Team are confident beating Djoko in an indoor final even when healthy and even a little compromise makes it all the more less possible.

    Given he reaches the final and loses to Rafa, he would still need to reach the ATP finals to secure #1 (assuming Djoko wins the title ). The current scenario also presents the same target. I do believe he wants to not take risk recover quick and give it a best shot at the finals.

    A little more confidence and risk and if he beat Djoko in the final, this pressure would have disappeared but Djokovic always gets in good gear and more so in the finals and against Rafa. its disappointing but I hope Rafa fights it out till the end at the finals

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      • yes but what if djoko loses a RR? Then a SF finish would have been enough..anyway not in our hands..we can only sit here and rue about the misfortune

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        • Well perhaps certain things are not meant to be! It’s the same with 2018, when Rafa could finish the year at no.1 had he won Wimbledon but due to unfavourable circumstances, he couldn’t and also ended up injured later during the season. He was leading the race last year until Djoko surpassed him after Paris Masters.

          He’s the best player again this year so far but again has to get injured and may yet again loses the lead, perhaps that’s just his fate, or the way he puts his body through so much strain! I feel he’s never going to win the Paris Masters, a shame, not able to win both the FO and Paris masters within the same season, having won the FO 12 times!

          Djoko is going to win the Paris masters for a fifth time, what a difference from Rafa! I doubt Shapo is going to win it, in his first ever Masters final. I think only Sasha has done it, and against Djoko at Rome 2017!

          Dimi must be kicking himself for not winning the TB against Djoko; had he won the match, he would stand a good chance of beating Shapo in the final.

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    • thats being way too optimistic thinking strategising for it but I dont think its anything about strategy..he is just plain unlucky to get injured and miss the chance.

      Rafa has been saying all along this tourney he fears getting injured..this is what happens then..

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  26. I hope Rafa gets well enough to play next season and win a few GSs. That’s all i’m asking, I really don’t care for #1 that much!!

    VAMOS Rafa! Get well soon!

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  27. So sad for Rafa, he’s putting so much strain on his body that he’s getting abdominal muscle strains so often. Does any other player have such problem with their abdominal muscles?

    Maybe his trainer has to do a better job next time, to help him prevent against such problem. I wonder has that got to do with the way he serves? I mean he’s always meddling with the way he serve, making all sorts of adjustments to try improving his serve, perhaps twitching a muscle or two after serving too hard?

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    • Thanks for the link, Augusta08. So sad for all of us. Hope Rafa will be able to play the WTF but that’s an awfully short recovery time for even a small strain and I’d rather he get completely healthy.

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  29. Now only Fed and Medvedev can win the no 1 for Rafa.. Fed better do it for himself..Djoko if he goes to no 6 YE will also cross Fed weeks at No 1 slowly and then Fed may have no records of his own at all .

    So cmon Fed..do it for yourself (and Rafa) and Dannil..turn up the heat

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    • Well it’s all up to Rafa himself! Why depend on others to do the job for him? If he wants the YE no.1, go and fight for it!

      I sometimes don’t like the idea that Rafa (and Toni) think all these injuries are due to bad luck, instead of going to the root of the problem. Rafa’s career could have been better imo, had they done certain things right.

      I really don’t think Rafa’s body is not made to last in his tennis career, it’s a matter of the playing style and choosing to play the schedule wisely. Both Fed and Djoko also played well over 1,000 atp matches but they’re not injured that often, and Djoko plays a more counterpunching style than Fed but he’s still surviving well despite some minor niggles and an elbow injury.

      I think by now we have to come to accept that Rafa is injured very often and so it’s better not to expect too much from him. It’ll be a bonus each time he wins something big, or if he comes back successfully after each injury.

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  30. You know I revealed the information about Rafa being injured. So people go on another thread to talk about it? That is petty beyond belief! I thought people would want to know. Now I won’t bother in the future! How disgusting!

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  32. On another note, Shapo is doing well moving up the rankings, he’ll be ranked 15 or 16 after Paris if he doesn’t win the final. Should he win the final, he can jump as high as no. 11 in the rankings, unbelievable.

    I think getting in Youzhny as his coach seems a right move, just like Thiem getting in Massu as his coach. Shapo now plays with controlled aggression, no longer going for broke.

    It’s quite unbelievable that all these youngsters are getting up the rankings one after another, reaching first top twenty and moving towards or already get inside top ten – Sasha, Tsitsipas, Medvedev – and soon Shapo, all doing well and better than Kyrgios, despite Kyrgios being more senior and considered more talented than all of them.

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  33. Come to think of it , assuming Novak wins tomorrow and Rafa does not play wtf ..Novak still has to reach wtf finals ( not needed to win ) to get the no 1..so whether Rafa withdrew today or lost in finals at Paris is immaterial..

    Reply

      • Good point!. On paper, Rafa has a simpler chance to get to YE#1 but for some reason Novak reaching the WTF finals or actually winning it seems more likely. Even if Novak wins the title, Rafa reaching the finals would be enough.

        But I have to state, Federer and Novak have been the most dominant and assured during their prime. Nadal as dominant as he has been with the results, his wins seem almost always laboured and never a lock. I am sure Lucky would disagree. But I guess why arent we confident Rafa could atleast reach the WTF finals. Why is YE becoming so hard ?

        Rafa does deserve the YE but it would be so nice to see him earn it than expecting Nole to lose. He has been so unlucky with the injuries yes but I hope he stopped Paris at the right time so he can recover soon enough and last during the WTF and get the 4 wins he needs. A title would be a feather in the cap. Its not that he cant do it. He has to believe and get it done. And any additonal stress on his injury he has enough time the rest of the year to recover for the next. Go Rafa!

        Reply

        • Why do you say that I disagree?

          In fact I always feel that Rafa’s matches on the HCs especially, seemed so labored, compared to Fed’s or Djoko’s. It’s only on clay that I do feel hes so comfortable whilst all others seemed to be laboring on clay, even Fed!

          Rafa simply glides so beautifully on clay and I would always be confident that he could reach any ball (2019 clay season excluded when he’s obviously not his usual self before Rome and RG).

          To me he’s OK on grass because he tends to be more aggressive on grass and playing shorter points. His movement on grass is also very good.

          I feel maybe it’s because Rafa puts too much topspin into his shots even on the HCs; I think he should hit it flatter with more pace and precision. He can hit it flatter the way he does during practices but once it comes to actual matches, he has the tendency to revert back to topspin shots and I think that puts him at a disadvantage against Djoko, and against Fed lately. His topspin made the ball slowed down and bounced higher so Djoko had the time to rush in to take the ball early (on clay the bounce was too high so Djoko couldnt do that).

          Even when he’s winning a high % of his first and second serves here in Paris, he never looked comfortable on court imo. He often seemed rushed by his opponents, and at times still playing from way behind the baseline and had to run a lot.

          I would prefer him to be a bit more aggressive, something like Shapo, who follows his big serve to the net often and thus takes away time from his opponent.

          If Rafa could master his serve well enough, he may be able to rush to the net more often, not exactly S&V, but may just charge the net once he sees the opportunities to do so.

          Reply

          • I’m beginning to appreciate the way Shapo plays recently, when he no longer goes for broke but plays with controlled aggression.

            The way he beats Sasha, and Foggy, I feel he is finally getting to realise his true potential, thanks to Youzhny.

            Off topic, I feel its Shapo and not Tsitsipas who plays like Fed. His mannerism and movement is like Rafa but his game, ie all out first strike attack is like Fed’s.

            Tsitsipas OTOH, moves and hits his shots like Fed, but he’s not exactly a first strike attacking player, to me he’s more and more like Rafa, playing from further behind the baseline,

          • Sorry that’s me, and I accidentally press ‘sent’.

            Tsitsipas plays a more thinking game and moving to the net as and when appropriate, like what Rafa is doing these days.

          • Lucky, You have always been more confident on Rafa than me. I have seen Rafas matches on Clay with the likes of Ferrer even in his prime years. Even if the results went his way, his rallies were always too long drawn out and kept me nervous and wondering on every point. To see him going down on 0-4 to fed first set on Clay( I think it was Rome some year), it was always never outright.

            But I think Rafa had this approach of fighting when he was down and never gave up. I believe he wasnt as pressured as he is now. He was still carefree. To have been in the top for more than a decade, his added pressure to sustain his form and results, I think his humility has leaned towards negativity only recently.( along with the losses to Novak in ’11)

            I think his fear and lack of confidence sometimes manifests to injuries too considering he is older as well.

            I dont think its necessarily topspin vs flat as much as the depth he hits with. If his full throttle topspin shots land past the service line even if not close to the baseline, its almost unplayable, hard courts or otherwise. I have seen when in good form and his avg shots go past the service line, he hits the lines both on the baselines and sidelines. I dont think even Djokovic can manage consistent depth from Rafa. Its just that it hasnt happened recently and I believe thats got to do with Rafa’s mental state.

            Anyway lets hope he gets to YE 1 . He certainly deserves it and I am sure he will do everything to recover and fight.

          • Well as Rafa ages, he won’t be able to hit topspin shots with depth that often, hence Djoko is able to deal with Rafa’s topspin shots on HCs.

            Djoko always makes it a point to move to the net once he sees an opponent deep behind the baseline, and that’s why against anyone, he can impose his game. It’s only on the quicker courts that Fed who rushes the net more often than Djoko does, is still able to beat Djoko sometimes. Stan is the only man who can hit through Djoko consistently throughout a match, hence he’s able to beat Djoko on the big stages.

            I think Rafa has the mental block against Djoko (even on clay at Rome this year, Rafa was nervous or anxious that he lost the second set), unlike a Medvedev, who doesn’t ‘fear’ Djoko. It’s too bad for Rafa, for he clearly can have the game to beat Djoko on the HCs when he could play like he did at the USO, beating the red hot Medvedev in the final.

            Medvedev beats Djoko with his unpredictable game, and I believe Rafa could play like the way Medvedev plays to beat Djoko too. A younger Fed playing with varieties should be able to beat Djoko on the HCs fairly regularly imo, but he’s now too old to do so.

        • I’m resigned to accepting Rafa will not play wtf. So now it’s about nole n others stopping Nole. However I think Nole will not let this pass. He will surely make the SF but then depends on semi if he gets knocked out..the chance of that on indoor is very less

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          • Maybe Fed, Maybe Medvedev can stop Djokovic and help Rafa. Its not going to be straightforward but Djokovic has this super confidence and mental aggression that its quite rare he gets fragile and loses matches.

            I still woudl love to see Rafa take out the #1 and the best player indoors in a final and take the title. I still believe Rafa is good enough to win the WTF. He has been in a few finals and semis. To say indoors is less favoured just because he hasnt won a title, to me is silly. He can win anywhere.

          • He can but if he is compromised he cannot right..if he can’t serve..

            What is your gutfeel on he playing wtf ? You thjnk he will turn up..he needs to atleast win 2 rr to force Novak to win the title

  34. I’m actually quite pissed with what happened to Rafa these past two to three years.

    I mean in 2018 and 2019 Rafa was/is the best player during the season, leading the race until injuries struck him, usually after or during the USO. From then, because of injuries that he couldn’t continue with the season and so he lost the no.1 ranking to the next best player!

    To lose the no.1 ranking in this manner is really quite sickening, just like in 2009, and also in 2014 when he had to miss the US HC swing in August.

    The YE no.1 is important to Rafa, as he emphasised the importance of YE no.1 over no.1 during the season. He said now that he’s not so bothered about no.1 or no.2, but he’s still making efforts to come back from injury last year during Paris Masters and this year the WTF, that means he really wanted to do well and at least gave himself a chance to fight for the YE no.1.

    I really don’t know what else he could do to prevent it at least cut down on the number of injuries, it’s becoming so frequent throughout a season these past three years, he having to suffer injuries a few times during a season is becoming the norm these days. I doubt he’s going to play for two more season if things carry on like this!

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  35. Sanju, I am more than 100% certain Rafa wants the YE#1 and he will do everything he can to play the WTF. I am thinking its one reason why I think he and his team were extra cautious to what I think is the first sign of serious discomfort. They want to fix it while its minor and recover in time.

    If its a serious injury that he cant play, its pure bad luck. Then I would start hoping Novak loses but until then I want Rafa to come back and take the YE for himself.

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    • I feel Rafa will play at the WTF, maybe the RR stage at least. I do feel he’s good enough to win one to two RR matches. His movements, his shots and his returns are all good, even if he couldn’t serve well because of his abdominal constraint.

      Whether that’s enough to get him the YE no.1 very much depends on not only how Djoko plays but also how the others play – player like Medvedev at WTF and maybe even Shapo at Paris masters.

      If in the unlikely scenario that Shapo beats Djoko in the Paris final, Rafa would then be 1040 points ahead of Djoko. Shapo will become no.11 in the rankings and he may end up being an alternate player at the WTF should Agut or Monfils choose not to go the WTF as alternate, or if Rafa decides to pull out of WTF and Monfils takes his place in the main draw.

      Djoko may not win the WTF, or he may win but loses a RR match in the process, so who knows, anything can happen.

      Fed seems keen on doing well at the WTF , maybe to keep Medvedev away from getting his no.3 ranking, or to prevent Djoko from getting his 6th YE no.1 and from getting to his 310 weeks at no.1 record.

      Really, it’s anyone’s guess what are going on in their minds, so we have to wait patiently for things to unfold.

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      • I agree. All I know is Rafa badly wants it. I am sure Djoko wants it too for he wants to beat the 310. if he loses it now, winning the aussie is not a guarantee and things we slip away as to that record. Fed most certainly wants to win another while he can be it a GS or a WTF.

        At one point, I think Rafa and Novak were close even in no. of weeks. I guess it would help Rafa to clinch and have a few weeks before next year and that will only add to his confidence for the next year. Would be poetic justice if all 3 have 5 years YE and Nadal gets to have a few more weeks to balance the weeks at #1

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        • Exactly ..that’s why I want the ye no 1. Have been saying it since end of USO. It would be poetic justice to have all 3 at 5 year end no 1. But many rafans here said ye no 1 does not matter

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      • I would think so.If he continued to finish that match I am sure it wasnt severe and it should be the same issue with a muscle strain. How bad is the tear, these guys do MRI all the time to be safe.

        i am sure he did not aggravate it during the practice. He said it only happened at the very end of his practice. So as far as I know, it wont be too serious.

        Reply

      • No, during the Wawrinka match Rafa had an upset stomach. This strain was a muscle/tendon problem that happened during his pre match practice for the semi.

        Reply

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