Paris QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Cilic

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are one round away from a potential semifinal showdown in Paris, but they first have to get through possibly tough ones on Friday. Djokovic is going up against Marin Cilic as Federer faces Kei Nishikori.

(10) Kei Nishikori vs. (3) Roger Federer

Federer and Nishikori will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the second time this fall when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Rolex Paris Masters on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Federer, who just recently prevailed 6-4, 7-6(4) in the Shanghai Masters quarters. He has won five in a row at Nishikori’s expense since the Japanese world No. 11 had taken a brief 2-1 lead in the matchup with victories in 2013 (Madrid) and 2014 (Miami).

This is a potential Nitto ATP Finals preview, as Federer has long since clinched his London spot and Nishikori basically wrapped up a berth with losses by John Isner, Borna Coric, and Fabio Fognini on Thursday in Paris. The 28-year-old can finish no worse than No. 9 in the race and Juan Martin Del Potro is expected to withdraw from the year-end championship (Rafael Nadal is also a question mark). It was Federer who ousted Fognini 6-4, 6-3, preceding that result with a bye and a walkover from Milos Raonic. Nishikori beat Adrian Mannarino 6-4, 6-2 and then avenged last week’s Vienna final loss to Kevin Anderson by taking down the South African 6-4, 6-4. Although Nishikori is on fire at the moment, the surface favors Federer and the 37-year-old Swiss has dominated the recent head-to-head history.

Pick: Federer in 2

[polldaddy poll=10153703]

(5) Marin Cilic vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

With Nadal’s Paris withdrawal and potential absence from the Nitto ATP Finals, Djokovic has the inside track on the year-end No. 1 ranking (he will take over the top spot heading into London regardless of what transpires the rest of the way in Paris). That seemed unlikely at best through the first four months of the season, but Djokovic suddenly snagged back-to-back Grand Slam titles at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. The second-seeded Serb is 29-1 in his last 30 matches following Paris wins over Joao Sousa (7-5, 6-1) and Damir Dzumhur (via second-set retirement).

This 29-1 stretch began following a loss in the Queen’s Club final to Cilic, who is Djokovic’s opponent once again on Friday. Despite that grass-court setback, the 14-time major champion is still dominating the head-to-head series 15-2. It is hard to see Cilic turning the tide back in his favor, as the seventh-ranked Croat has done well to reach the quarterfinals this week but for the most part has been slumping of late. He was a mere 2-4 since the U.S. Open prior to arriving in Paris, so this is likely one-way traffic for Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

[polldaddy poll=10153464]

11 Comments on Paris QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Cilic

    • The final will probably be djokovic vs Thiem. I can’t see sascha beating an inform Thiem on a surface that could be called green clay. Federer could make finals if he somehow beats djoko (so that means that he plays at his best) or if cilic defeats nole (that could be possible).

  1. Playing against Djoko, almost everyone is drawn into a baseline war against him. He has the ability to hang in the point for as long as needed, and at the same time is able to move forward to control the court and then hit a winner.

    For those who have played against him many times, they tend to have mental demons when facing him and they just couldn’t execute their own regular game effectively against him. He (and his team) seem to have studied most players game and habits and thus he seems to know their weaknesses and so is able to exploit them.

    I guess those whom he plays against for the first time would have better chances to beat him, like a Kyrgios or a Tsitsipas. I would think Shapo when serving and hitting well will have his chances too with his net rushing game.

    I feel only a peak form Fed on a quick court, or a top form Rafa playing an aggressive game; or a Stan at his best hitting without missing from the baseline are able to beat Djoko who’s playing well. Fedal have the varieties in their game to trouble Djoko and Stan could just blow him off the court all day (unlike Delpo who tend to bow to Djoko imo).

    I doubt Cilic has the ability to beat this Djoko, when Cilic is sucked into a baseline war with Djoko. Cilic doesn’t have Stan’s precision and consistency and will soon cough out an error; he’s just too one dimensional to begin with!

  2. Surprise, surprise. Cilic won the first set and was up a break in the 3rd, but couldn’t close the deal. That movie is getting old with Cilic.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.