Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 47th time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Rolex Paris Masters final on Saturday.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 24-22, including 3-0 in their last three contests dating back to the title match of the 2015 year-end championship. The two all-time greats have faced each other just once this season, with Djokovic triumphing 6-4, 6-4 to win the Cincinnati Masters for the first time.
Djokovic’s Cincinnati success was part of a seismic mid-year shift on the ATP Tour, as Federer and Rafael Nadal dominated the first half of 2018–seemingly on their way to a two-man race for the No. 1 ranking. Since the start of the grass-court swing, however, it was been all Djokovic. Buoyed by titles at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, the Serb will regain the top spot from Nadal following this week’s festivities even if he loses to Federer.
Since falling to Marin Cilic in the Queen’s Club final, Djokovic is an incredible 30-1 in his last 31 matches. The 14-time major champion is 8-0 since the U.S. Open, with a title at the Shanghai Masters and victories this week over Joao Sousa, Damir Dzumhur (via second-set retirement), and Cilic.
A minor slump by Federer’s standards saw him lose to Kevin Anderson in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, to Djokovic in Cincinnati, to John Millman in the U.S. Open fourth round, and to Borna Coric in the Shanghai semis. Although the 37-year-old was rarely at his best last week in Basel, he still managed to capture a ninth title at his home tournament. Federer has maintained momentum in Paris with straight-set defeats of Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori after getting a walkover from Milos Raonic.
“I think for me it was really important to go through two sets and not get broken,” the No. 3 seed reflected after beating Nishikori 6-4, 6-4. “Winning straight sets is always nice. It saves energy for not only what is to come tomorrow or the following week, but for your career. That’s why you could be more successful if you win quick matches. I’ve done that well throughout my career and it was nice to get one again tonight.
“I want to play well,” Federer said of the upcoming semifinal against Djokovic. “I know he’s on a hot streak so I think it’s going to be tough. But nevertheless I think I’ve got nothing to lose. I also like this type of surface; I like playing indoors. Indoors has treated me very well, winning Rotterdam and Basel (this season). I think I’m ready to do something tomorrow.”
“I’m just pleased to be in the semis,” Djokovic assured. “I know I can play better. At times [against Cilic] I was playing really well; at times, not that great. So there are things that I have to obviously improve for the next one, and I’m looking forward to it.”
The soon-to-be world No. 1 should have an edge from the baseline against Federer, just as he does against everyone else these days. If his service return–which is the best in the game–can once again neutralize the Swiss’ serve, Djokovic may come out on top in what will likely be a more competitive contest than what transpired in Cincinnati.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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Even though I don’t like Fed, I still think that he’s a great player and plays great and good to watch tennis and to me he’s the only one who’s capable of beating Djoko on the HCs if he’s playing well. Others stand no chance on the HCs against Djoko, including Rafa.
I will not cheer for Djoko, for I dislike his tennis. His is more about retrieving and staying in the point and it’s exhausting playing against him. He may be amazing in every aspect of his game but his numerous ball bouncing before each serve is getting on my nerve.
I’m so glad that Rafa has already moved away from being a retriever and is playing with more varieties and more offenses, something I wished he could’ve done much earlier during his career. The 2017 Rafa on clay was such a joy to watch, just like his USO2010!
Hmm.. I see it a little differently. Retrieval is one aspect of his game I think which he is very good at. He returns so well and his mental game is so good that he is in the head of the two mental giants out there even on their best surfaces. To be able to perform under pressure especially with a hostile crowd on his back really endears him to me.
I wish Rafa can take it to him and take a few titles away from him but if not, I am quite happy with him winning especially when he takes on Fed 🙂
When Rafa was basically a retriever player(or counterpuncher,if you prefer) I don’t remember any complaints from his fans.
Some of whom have just admitted they don’t like either Fed or Nole,the latter because he’s an even better retriever than Nadal, apparently.
Big Al, Rafa was a retriever when he was younger yet hes more aggressive back then than Djoko is now. Also, hes not being a retriever when playing on grass and he played more offensive tennis to win at the HC slams. Its only on clay when he had more time to work the points that he did more retrieving, but he wasnt retrieving anymore during 2017/2018.
Djoko OTOH, tends to retrieve more than he attacks; and hes outlasting his opponents more often even at the age of 31, incredible.
Yeah I guess we just have the common factor that we support Rafa. You prefer roger, I prefer Djoko after him. To me that is not crazy at all. TO each his own
Great win for Nole! On the way to GOAT 🙂 Actually it could have been more straightforward but Nole was 0/12 on break points. Much higher second serve win %. If he had been slightly better at break point conversion wouldn’t be so close. Though I must admit Feds backhand held up better than I thought it would and match was tighter than I thought it would be
I could say the same for Fed too; had he served better (esp his second serve) he could have won the match in straight sets too! The fact that the match was so close, says a lot about how remarkable Fed is at 37, when he’s the one who pushed Djoko to the limit and Djoko is having his 20 matches winning streak and has become the no.1 player again this week.
Compare Fed at 37 to Cilic at 30, Fed has done better than Cilic playing against Djoko. Djoko served better today than he did against Cilic yesterday.
‘Had he served better’ is a general statement and not the same as a breakpoint conversion rate of 0-12 which is a unique situation. My point is Djoko would have been unlucky to lose this match as he was the better player if you look at the stats. That being said of course Fed is remarkable to play the way he does at 37 and is always a treat to watch.
Points won were close until the last set TB, so it’s not like Djoko was the better player. In fact Fed had more winners (with more UEs too) meaning he’s the one doing more attacking and Djoko was the one extracting errors from his opponent.
Had Fed served better, I doubt Djoko could have that many BP chances!
I disagree. Fact that Djoko created 12 break point chances vs 2 for Fed shows that Fed had a much tougher time holding serve. We can agree to disagree, but my view is that clearly Djoko had a lot more chances to break (and hence was the better player)
Not much benefit in creating break points if you can’t convert them. This was a very close match until the last tb where Djoko was clearly better. However Djokovic has been the best player since winning Wimbledon and will be the favorite for WTF with Fed as 2nd favorite. Maybe a close 2nd. We’ll see.
For those saying Father Time is catching up to Fed, I get it. He’s been less consistent this year (but keep in mind he did have a niggling hand injury for a few months in the summer). Plus he’s struggled in more early matches at tournaments than usual (ex: last week in Basel). However, he just lost a gut-wrenching match on a surface that suits him far less than the O2 against the number one player in the world. If Federer can sustain the level he displayed today and this week, he can win the World Tour Finals. He’s a different breed guys. Father Time’s got nothing on Fed.
“Less consistent” is precisely what happens as you age. More bad days and all that, more likely to get injured. Still, Fed is certainly giving Ol’ Father Time a great fight! He might well have won today.
Do you watch Gill Gross on YouTube? He seems to know what he’s talking about and is a FedFan, although not an obnoxious one. 🙂 He does a Monday Match Analysis show and sometimes does shows in between. Today he did a prematch show and was pretty much spot on in his analysis. He thought Djokovic was a bit under the weather this week.
I wish for guys like Tsitsipas and Sharpo to rise and beat Djoko; attacking tennis is much prettier to watch! I’m glad Rafa has now learnt to play more attacking tennis.
I’ll never warm to Djoko with all his on court behavior! And I doubt he could challenge Fed on grass during Fed’s peak; likewise against Rafa on clay during Rafa’s peak. He could win his BO3 matches against them but not at slams when they’re at their peeak, I’ve no doubt about that. Fed’s peak on grass > Djoko’s on grass; Rafa’s peak on clay > Djoko’s on clay. Fedal > Djoko imo as they need not go to such extent (ie seeking professional help in every aspect of the game) and still could achieve more than Djoko, even though Fedal’s game are not perfect, come with flaws.
Djoko is the greatest on slower HCs imo and with courts being slowed down since the last decade, they favored his game and that’s why I think he’ll be the true Goat one day.
So fed is 1460 points behind rafa. That means he has to win all 5 matches at nitto atp wtf to take the no 2 back from rafa assuming rafa does not plat at wtf. It’s a surpriSe rafa will end year at no 2 despite having barely played this year , he missed 5 masters this his year. Damn rafa the wimby semi that you lost will never forgive you…
Rafa is always injured, and it’s sad that he can’t defend his YE no.1 ranking after fighting so hard to be no.1 last year.
I’m resigned about that and by now have accepted that Rafa can no longer compete with Djoko on the HCs so for the remaining of his tennis career, he can only win on clay and the clay slam, with only odd wins here and there on the HCs. He has/had to fight so hard just to win his matches – at the AO, Wimbledon and USO, I mean how many five setters he had to play these days at the slams? He’s not going to last playing five setters after five setters!
If Djoko suffers no further injury, he’s the one to sweep up majority of the slams in the next two years at least, before the likes of Sasha, Tsitsipas and Sharpo mature and start winning slams.
Federer knew he had to dictate play aggressively to have any chance to beat this Djoko and it showed in the winner to unforced error stats.
He played at an extremely high level which threw Nole off his game and he almost pulled it off.
But Nole just the better player.
Agree with Benny and vmk1.
I’m with vmk1.
Can’t warm to fed and the biased crowds and I’ll always cheer for Nole when the fedfan crowd is cheering against him. To not bend under that pressure is incredible to me. I loved his finger to his ear to the French crowd after he won the match.
He’s now my second favourite active player next to Rafa.
Federer is still an amazing player playing at an incredible level at 37. He held his own and almost found the right strategy to beat the No. 1 player come this Monday. He’s barely lost a step. Give some credit to Nole for forcing Roger to play higher risk tennis than he already does.
Those two are a joy to watch h2h.
Yes, great analysis as usual, hawks. I understand why you would root against the crowd of fedfans. As a fan of Roger, I obviously like the massive support he gets but in general, looking at it objectively, I can see that it could be annoying to fans of others and to the actual opponent of Roger (example: Kyrgios in Miami vs Fed last year)
Benny I agree the crowd is annoying – even for me as a Fedfan. But why dislike Fed for their silly and embarrassing reactions?
I happy he can still compete. Never discount Fed. He’ll win vs Djoko at AO 😉
Its been a long time since I have seen Fed strike those incredible DTL BH winners. His serve was excellent too.
Yes he looked really good out there. As hawks said, he had to play at a really high level to have a chance and he did just that. Great battle as always between Fedole. I’m hoping we get a rematch at some point in London.
Fed was definitely better here than at Cincy final, he looked clueless at Cincy. Had he made a few more first serves, he could have the upper hand (Djoko couldn’t break Fed’s serve here!).
Compare the exchange at the net of yesterday and today and you realise why it is so easy to warm up to Novak and not to the arrogant one
Yup. Tsame.
Compare the exchange at the net of yesterday and today and you realise why it is so easy to warm up to Novak and not to the arrogant one