Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 47th time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Rolex Paris Masters final on Saturday.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 24-22, including 3-0 in their last three contests dating back to the title match of the 2015 year-end championship. The two all-time greats have faced each other just once this season, with Djokovic triumphing 6-4, 6-4 to win the Cincinnati Masters for the first time.
Djokovic’s Cincinnati success was part of a seismic mid-year shift on the ATP Tour, as Federer and Rafael Nadal dominated the first half of 2018–seemingly on their way to a two-man race for the No. 1 ranking. Since the start of the grass-court swing, however, it was been all Djokovic. Buoyed by titles at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, the Serb will regain the top spot from Nadal following this week’s festivities even if he loses to Federer.
Since falling to Marin Cilic in the Queen’s Club final, Djokovic is an incredible 30-1 in his last 31 matches. The 14-time major champion is 8-0 since the U.S. Open, with a title at the Shanghai Masters and victories this week over Joao Sousa, Damir Dzumhur (via second-set retirement), and Cilic.
A minor slump by Federer’s standards saw him lose to Kevin Anderson in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, to Djokovic in Cincinnati, to John Millman in the U.S. Open fourth round, and to Borna Coric in the Shanghai semis. Although the 37-year-old was rarely at his best last week in Basel, he still managed to capture a ninth title at his home tournament. Federer has maintained momentum in Paris with straight-set defeats of Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori after getting a walkover from Milos Raonic.
“I think for me it was really important to go through two sets and not get broken,” the No. 3 seed reflected after beating Nishikori 6-4, 6-4. “Winning straight sets is always nice. It saves energy for not only what is to come tomorrow or the following week, but for your career. That’s why you could be more successful if you win quick matches. I’ve done that well throughout my career and it was nice to get one again tonight.
“I want to play well,” Federer said of the upcoming semifinal against Djokovic. “I know he’s on a hot streak so I think it’s going to be tough. But nevertheless I think I’ve got nothing to lose. I also like this type of surface; I like playing indoors. Indoors has treated me very well, winning Rotterdam and Basel (this season). I think I’m ready to do something tomorrow.”
“I’m just pleased to be in the semis,” Djokovic assured. “I know I can play better. At times [against Cilic] I was playing really well; at times, not that great. So there are things that I have to obviously improve for the next one, and I’m looking forward to it.”
The soon-to-be world No. 1 should have an edge from the baseline against Federer, just as he does against everyone else these days. If his service return–which is the best in the game–can once again neutralize the Swiss’ serve, Djokovic may come out on top in what will likely be a more competitive contest than what transpired in Cincinnati.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
[polldaddy poll=10154515]
who ya got?
Djokovic in straight sets.
Probably Fed in 2 or 3.
What’s your reasoning for that outcome, Lucky? Not saying it’s a good or bad pick, I’m just genuinely curious.
Fed plays with more varieties, unlike Cilic. Cilic is so one dimensional – staying at the baseline to rally with Djoko is asking for trouble unless you’re Stan.
Both Fed and Rafa have to employ all sorts of varieties when playing against Djoko in order to have a chance to beat him. Djoko is the ultimate retriever in tennis, no one can outlast him from the baseline.
Fed played badly in that Cincy final, I don’t think he’s going to play the same way this time. If that inconsistent Cilic has a chance to beat Djoko, I give Fed bigger chances. Djoko imo isn’t playing all that well, it’s his ability to hit one more shot to stay in the point that frustrates his opponents, I always wonder why his opponents keep staying at the baseline to try to outhit Djoko, no one except Stan could do that with success, not even Rafa.
PS. I think a Shapo who’s playing well will have a chance against Djoko, as his net rushing and big serving game is more difficult t counter than the baseline game.
Also, I don’t understand why time and again,Djoko’s opponents tend to wait for the ball to come back to where they were standing, to hit it, rather than moving forward to attack the ball early, when Djoko was busy retrieving well behind the baseline. To me, the player should move forward to take the weaker retrieving shot from Djoko and then slam it as hard as possible to the open court, or better still hit a deft drop volley close to the net so that Djoko doesn’t have time to reach it! Time and again, his opponents just wait for the ball to come back and many times they do not expect that Djoko could retrieve the ball, which Djoko always disappoints them!
When playing Djoko, expect the ball to come back at all times no matter what!
Djoker in straights. Hoping otherwise
Hard to predict anything at this time of year , but Djokovic in three.
Fed in 2
Novak is in god mode, but Roger is the god of tennis. This post says that and more … Here’s a bold analysis of the semifinal between Roger and Nova… http://www.138mph.com/atp-tennis-fearless-analysis-of-the-47th-meeting-between-federer-and-djokovic-at-the-paris-masters-1000/
Djoko in 2 or 3
Vamos NOle! What an opening Set!! And Nole takes it
Federer is terrible! It’s a winnable set but his second serve is not up to par; and Djoko is clutch when it matters.
I think Djoko is really in Fed’s head these days. Fed got pinned to his BH corner and he’s not moving his legs quick enough to hit more DTL shots and ended up going CC all the time, allowing Djoko to hit all those CC angled shots. Fed has really slowed down these days, and as I had said before, he would be late for his FH shots when made to move from one corner to the other but not many players could exploit that, unlike Djoko.
Fed is/was rushing through his serve and I don’t understand why. He just couldn’t string two good first serves together, whilst Djoko took his time, bounced the ball so many times and then served so well when it mattered.
Fed couldn’t win the CC BH battle yet he’s still continuing with the pattern, not going to help him.
Let’s be honest here, it would be pretty bad if Novak lost to Fed these days… Sure, Fed is still playing pretty well for a 37 year old, but there is good reason why all the great players of the modern era are either retired or are a non-factor once they start entering their late-30’s. It sort of looks like taking candy from a baby at this point…
To me it’s clear as day- the guy is done is on the verge of retirement. At his age, he needs to be serving SO lights-out in order to even have a chance at a guy like Novak.
He may have a flash of greatness here or there, but it’s really not enjoyable for me to watch anymore. I understand and he is still playing because he loves the game, but as someone who always enjoyed watching him play, it’s just not really that enjoyable anymore now that Father Time has caught up to him.
True, especially when he no longer has his great serve working all the time, and he’s overhitting so often these days. He no longer has his laser sharp precision tennis and it’s understandable at his ‘ripe’ old age.
Still, had he served a little bit better, he could win the first set. Despite his poor second serve and his overhitting, he’s still very close to Djoko’s level and that’s remarkable.
OMG and you were saying.. the maestro just came back to steal set 2
Haha, I did say he still has flashes of greatness! 🙂 But overall, a 37 year old in the modern era usually just doesn’t have the sustained physical ability needed to compete consistently at the highest level. That’s all I’m saying. And it’s very clear for the eye to see, with all players, not just Fed. IMO.
Yes! Fed wins the second set. See, as long as Fed plays with some varieties, he’ll have his chances! He varies the way he returns the serve, not simply blocking back but varies the pace, maybe he should employ some of Murray’s junk balling tennis and not give Djoko any rhythm dealing with his shots.
Fed is so slow to cover his FH corner, just like Rafa these days!
Fed hitting more DTL BH now and wins the points, see, it can be done and should be done more often.
This is the best I have seen Fed play after Wimby initial rounds. And probably his best match against a quality opponent this year.
Sigh, what a way to lose for Fed! DF during TB?
He’s playing so well until this TB! What is Fed thinking???
Vamos Nole!! Did not expect it to be this close but way to go!!!
Why vamos Nole? I would rather Fed wins and breaks Djoko’s winning streak! Djoko will be hard to beat if he continues like this, and Rafa will suffer further under Djoko’s hands! I can’t find myself cheering for Djoko really!
That I agree. But I would rather somebody else break Nole’s winning streak. If Fed wins and gains his confidence back, Rafa will suffer under both of their hands 🙂 And I prefer Rafa suffering at Nole’s hands than Fed’s.
And another thing is I find it extremely hard to warm up to Fed
Fed is not playing at his 2017 level so I doubt Rafa will suffer at Fed’s hand! Can’t say that about Djoko! VMK, did you watch how they play this year??
Personally, if Fed plays Rafa at O2, I would pit Fed as the favorite as I assume many others would. When’s the last time Roger lost to Rafa on a hard court? 2014? It’s not like 2018 Fed is insanely worse than 2017 Fed.
Yes Benny! I think so too. Rafa is not beating Roger at the O2. I think rafa’s best shot is to be in the group that does not have Novak or Roger. And then see how hte draw pans out.
I think the only way Rafa has a chance at o2 is qualify for the semis from the other group and hope he does not have to face Djoko or Fed in the semi and hope that Fed or Djoko get knocked out in the other semi.
Benny, Rafa playing at O2 that means he’s coming in cold as he’s away injured! If Rafa had not injured his knee, and if he’s playing the way he played at USO, I’ve no doubt he could beat Fed! Rafa was playing at a high level then despite not having his usual good serve.
Fed not at his 2017 level and Rafa is playing better than his 2017 level so Rafa imo can beat Fed on the HCs. If Millman can beat Fed, Rafa can too! Rafa is playing much better tennis than Millman!!
To me it’s crazy that any Rafa fan would want Djoko to become his invincible self again! I certainly don’t want Rafa to lose to Djoko seven times in a row again!
Yeah I guess we just have the common factor that we support Rafa. You prefer roger, I prefer Djoko after him. To me that is not crazy at all. TO each his own
And Roger does the lame handshake.!! Hahaha!
This after the fake bonhomie shared during the laver cup
So True.
Even though I don’t like Fed, I still think that he’s a great player and plays great and good to watch tennis and to me he’s the only one who’s capable of beating Djoko on the HCs if he’s playing well. Others stand no chance on the HCs against Djoko, including Rafa.
I will not cheer for Djoko, for I dislike his tennis. His is more about retrieving and staying in the point and it’s exhausting playing against him. He may be amazing in every aspect of his game but his numerous ball bouncing before each serve is getting on my nerve.
I’m so glad that Rafa has already moved away from being a retriever and is playing with more varieties and more offenses, something I wished he could’ve done much earlier during his career. The 2017 Rafa on clay was such a joy to watch, just like his USO2010!
Hmm.. I see it a little differently. Retrieval is one aspect of his game I think which he is very good at. He returns so well and his mental game is so good that he is in the head of the two mental giants out there even on their best surfaces. To be able to perform under pressure especially with a hostile crowd on his back really endears him to me.
I wish Rafa can take it to him and take a few titles away from him but if not, I am quite happy with him winning especially when he takes on Fed 🙂
When Rafa was basically a retriever player(or counterpuncher,if you prefer) I don’t remember any complaints from his fans.
Some of whom have just admitted they don’t like either Fed or Nole,the latter because he’s an even better retriever than Nadal, apparently.
Big Al, Rafa was a retriever when he was younger yet hes more aggressive back then than Djoko is now. Also, hes not being a retriever when playing on grass and he played more offensive tennis to win at the HC slams. Its only on clay when he had more time to work the points that he did more retrieving, but he wasnt retrieving anymore during 2017/2018.
Djoko OTOH, tends to retrieve more than he attacks; and hes outlasting his opponents more often even at the age of 31, incredible.
Yeah I guess we just have the common factor that we support Rafa. You prefer roger, I prefer Djoko after him. To me that is not crazy at all. TO each his own
Great win for Nole! On the way to GOAT 🙂 Actually it could have been more straightforward but Nole was 0/12 on break points. Much higher second serve win %. If he had been slightly better at break point conversion wouldn’t be so close. Though I must admit Feds backhand held up better than I thought it would and match was tighter than I thought it would be
I could say the same for Fed too; had he served better (esp his second serve) he could have won the match in straight sets too! The fact that the match was so close, says a lot about how remarkable Fed is at 37, when he’s the one who pushed Djoko to the limit and Djoko is having his 20 matches winning streak and has become the no.1 player again this week.
Compare Fed at 37 to Cilic at 30, Fed has done better than Cilic playing against Djoko. Djoko served better today than he did against Cilic yesterday.
‘Had he served better’ is a general statement and not the same as a breakpoint conversion rate of 0-12 which is a unique situation. My point is Djoko would have been unlucky to lose this match as he was the better player if you look at the stats. That being said of course Fed is remarkable to play the way he does at 37 and is always a treat to watch.
Points won were close until the last set TB, so it’s not like Djoko was the better player. In fact Fed had more winners (with more UEs too) meaning he’s the one doing more attacking and Djoko was the one extracting errors from his opponent.
Had Fed served better, I doubt Djoko could have that many BP chances!
I disagree. Fact that Djoko created 12 break point chances vs 2 for Fed shows that Fed had a much tougher time holding serve. We can agree to disagree, but my view is that clearly Djoko had a lot more chances to break (and hence was the better player)
Not much benefit in creating break points if you can’t convert them. This was a very close match until the last tb where Djoko was clearly better. However Djokovic has been the best player since winning Wimbledon and will be the favorite for WTF with Fed as 2nd favorite. Maybe a close 2nd. We’ll see.
For those saying Father Time is catching up to Fed, I get it. He’s been less consistent this year (but keep in mind he did have a niggling hand injury for a few months in the summer). Plus he’s struggled in more early matches at tournaments than usual (ex: last week in Basel). However, he just lost a gut-wrenching match on a surface that suits him far less than the O2 against the number one player in the world. If Federer can sustain the level he displayed today and this week, he can win the World Tour Finals. He’s a different breed guys. Father Time’s got nothing on Fed.
“Less consistent” is precisely what happens as you age. More bad days and all that, more likely to get injured. Still, Fed is certainly giving Ol’ Father Time a great fight! He might well have won today.
Do you watch Gill Gross on YouTube? He seems to know what he’s talking about and is a FedFan, although not an obnoxious one. 🙂 He does a Monday Match Analysis show and sometimes does shows in between. Today he did a prematch show and was pretty much spot on in his analysis. He thought Djokovic was a bit under the weather this week.
I wish for guys like Tsitsipas and Sharpo to rise and beat Djoko; attacking tennis is much prettier to watch! I’m glad Rafa has now learnt to play more attacking tennis.
I’ll never warm to Djoko with all his on court behavior! And I doubt he could challenge Fed on grass during Fed’s peak; likewise against Rafa on clay during Rafa’s peak. He could win his BO3 matches against them but not at slams when they’re at their peeak, I’ve no doubt about that. Fed’s peak on grass > Djoko’s on grass; Rafa’s peak on clay > Djoko’s on clay. Fedal > Djoko imo as they need not go to such extent (ie seeking professional help in every aspect of the game) and still could achieve more than Djoko, even though Fedal’s game are not perfect, come with flaws.
Djoko is the greatest on slower HCs imo and with courts being slowed down since the last decade, they favored his game and that’s why I think he’ll be the true Goat one day.
So fed is 1460 points behind rafa. That means he has to win all 5 matches at nitto atp wtf to take the no 2 back from rafa assuming rafa does not plat at wtf. It’s a surpriSe rafa will end year at no 2 despite having barely played this year , he missed 5 masters this his year. Damn rafa the wimby semi that you lost will never forgive you…
Rafa is always injured, and it’s sad that he can’t defend his YE no.1 ranking after fighting so hard to be no.1 last year.
I’m resigned about that and by now have accepted that Rafa can no longer compete with Djoko on the HCs so for the remaining of his tennis career, he can only win on clay and the clay slam, with only odd wins here and there on the HCs. He has/had to fight so hard just to win his matches – at the AO, Wimbledon and USO, I mean how many five setters he had to play these days at the slams? He’s not going to last playing five setters after five setters!
If Djoko suffers no further injury, he’s the one to sweep up majority of the slams in the next two years at least, before the likes of Sasha, Tsitsipas and Sharpo mature and start winning slams.
Federer knew he had to dictate play aggressively to have any chance to beat this Djoko and it showed in the winner to unforced error stats.
He played at an extremely high level which threw Nole off his game and he almost pulled it off.
But Nole just the better player.
Agree with Benny and vmk1.
I’m with vmk1.
Can’t warm to fed and the biased crowds and I’ll always cheer for Nole when the fedfan crowd is cheering against him. To not bend under that pressure is incredible to me. I loved his finger to his ear to the French crowd after he won the match.
He’s now my second favourite active player next to Rafa.
Federer is still an amazing player playing at an incredible level at 37. He held his own and almost found the right strategy to beat the No. 1 player come this Monday. He’s barely lost a step. Give some credit to Nole for forcing Roger to play higher risk tennis than he already does.
Those two are a joy to watch h2h.
Yes, great analysis as usual, hawks. I understand why you would root against the crowd of fedfans. As a fan of Roger, I obviously like the massive support he gets but in general, looking at it objectively, I can see that it could be annoying to fans of others and to the actual opponent of Roger (example: Kyrgios in Miami vs Fed last year)
Benny I agree the crowd is annoying – even for me as a Fedfan. But why dislike Fed for their silly and embarrassing reactions?
I happy he can still compete. Never discount Fed. He’ll win vs Djoko at AO 😉
Its been a long time since I have seen Fed strike those incredible DTL BH winners. His serve was excellent too.
Yes he looked really good out there. As hawks said, he had to play at a really high level to have a chance and he did just that. Great battle as always between Fedole. I’m hoping we get a rematch at some point in London.
Fed was definitely better here than at Cincy final, he looked clueless at Cincy. Had he made a few more first serves, he could have the upper hand (Djoko couldn’t break Fed’s serve here!).
Compare the exchange at the net of yesterday and today and you realise why it is so easy to warm up to Novak and not to the arrogant one
Yup. Tsame.
Compare the exchange at the net of yesterday and today and you realise why it is so easy to warm up to Novak and not to the arrogant one