For much of the ATP Tour, this marks the final week of the season. The Paris Masters offers some players the chance to go out with a bang, while for others it is an opportunity to prolong their 2017 campaigns with berths in the World Tour Finals. Additionally, this is a relatively up-for-grabs Masters 1000 tournament. A whole host of top guys have already been out for the year, Roger Federer is resting in between Basel and London, and just about everyone else has to be fatigued at the end of another long season. Chances are great that we will have a fist-time winner of this event. After all, the only former champions in the entire field are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer.
Rolex Paris Masters
Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 4,273,775 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
2016 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
Draw analysis: A World Tour Finals afterthought prior to last week, Lucas Pouille now has a shot at qualifying for the year-end championship. Even after triumphing in Vienna, the Frenchman still must reach at least the Paris final. But his draw may allow just that, because he took Federer’s place at the bottom of the bracket after the 36-year-old Swiss withdrew on Sunday. The other three seeds in that quarter are Dominic Thiem, Kevin Anderson, and Jack Sock. Thiem and Sock have been slumping for several months and Anderson has cooled off since finishing runner-up at the U.S. Open.
Elsewhere in the bottom half, David Goffin is looking to cement his place in London. The Belgian is seventh in the race with a 280-point lead over Pablo Carreno Busta and at least a 360-point cushion over every other outside contender. Goffin, who won two titles on the Asian swing and appeared in the Basel semis, could run into Tsonga in the third round. Tsonga, a recent champion in Antwerp and runner-up in Vienna, must reach at least the Paris semifinals in order to punch a ticket to London.
Rafael Nadal headlines the field as the No. 1 seed and—with Federer out—almost certainly the year-end No. 1 player. Nadal’s top quarter also includes Carreno Busta and Sam Querrey, who are in serious London contention. They are on a collision course to go head-to-head in a massive third-round showdown that could potentially decide the last World Tour Finals spot.
Like Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro must make a run to at least the Paris semis if he envisions a trip to the O2 Arena. The recent Stockholm champion and Basel runner-up is in a tough section of the draw that also includes Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, and 2016 Paris finalist John Isner.
Second-round upset alert: Diego Schwartzman over (9) John Isner. Isner has the pressure of defending 600 points as the runner-up to Andy Murray last year. He may also have the misfortune of facing a red-hot Schwartzman in his opening match. Isner is more than a foot taller than the Argentine (6’10’’ to 5’7’’), but size does not necessarily matter. After all, the American lost to Dudi Sela at Wimbledon this summer—and Schwartzman is a much better player than Sela these days.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Lucas Pouille, Yuichi Sugita, Diego Schwartzman, Adrian Mannarino, Jan-Lennard Struff
Cold: Dominic Thiem, Jack Sock, Vasek Pospisil, Pablo Cuevas, Karen Khachanov, Jeremy Chardy
Quarterfinal predictions: Querrey over Nadal, Zverev over Schwartzman, Goffin over Cilic, and Pouille over Harrison
Semifinals: Zverev over Querrey and Goffin over Pouille
Final: Goffin over Zverev
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Neither Pouille nor Goffin will make semis and neither predicted finalists will make the finals.
Oh, and Rafa won’t lose to Querrey.
#First
#HerbertWillWin
#HopeThisHelps
#DoYou?????!
Why would Pouille not make semis?
A rematch with Tsonga it could be, but JWT has a much tougher draw.He might run of steam, even he gets over the disappointment of todays final .
Hawkeye likes to talk a ton of trash for never actually making any picks. He is the tenngrand troll.
Are u sure Ricky that Sascha will make a final??I mean,he didn’t pass the 2nd,3rd or 4th Rd for months now!!Very likely will bombed out in 3rd or 4th once again..
And agree with Hawks that Goffin will lose before semis…and oh!…such a bold trust in Sam when he’s not passed 2nd & 3rd Rd for months too….
Querrey over Rafa ? Are you nuts ricky ?
Anyway i remember your Shanghai picks and this is relevant.
Rafa or Del Potro will win this tournament. There is no need to talk about other part of the draw.
Just to clear up the likely reason for Ricky’s Querrey pick, the surface at this event is fast as lightning (at least it was last year and I think it is this year too) and absolutely conducive to a player like Querrey. On the other hand, it’s not so conducive to Rafa (relative to other surfaces of course). Let’s put it this way. If Querrey can beat Nadal early in the season on outdoor hard courts, it’s not crazy to think Querrey can beat Nadal at the end of the season on a super quick and low bouncing indoor hard court when Nadal only needs to win one match to seal year end number one and could use some more rest for London while Querrey meanwhile is fighting for a spot in the freaking world tour finals.
Nah, Querrey is playing horrible at the moment, I doubt he can beat Rafa if Rafa is playing as well like in Beijing and Shanghai. Shanghai is a quicker surface than Paris Masters, not forgetting Rafa was playing at Shanghai (and Beijing) with roof closed most of the times due to rainy weather in those two Chinese cities.
Plus Rafa is playing much much better than in Acapulco and Sma’s playing a whole lot worse
Really Benny?? From everything I’ve read, Paris has always been a medium-slow indoor hard court. It’s supposed to be the slowest indoor court on tour, along with the o2 court. Maybe I’m wrong?
Honestly I might be wrong. Maybe it’s just really low bouncing I might be wrong about the speed. I thought it he as super fast but I’m not totally sure actually. How fast is the surface here Ricky?
You’re right it’s only a medium paced court according to the ATP analytics. It is slower than Shanghai and the O2 but faster than pretty much all other places.
Nadal over Goffin
My pick is Rafa over Cilic in the final. Cilic wasn’t impressive but he can beat a tired Tsonga or Goffin in the QF. I think Pouille has to get pass Anderson first to reach the SF; Pouille hasn’t shown that he can win B2B events or goes deep in the second event after winning the first. Cilic will most likely beat anyone in the SF to reach the final, IMO.
Anderson in poor form lately as well.
I’m not sure how slow Paris is but if it’s on wooden boards probably Nadal’s worst surface as the ball doesn’t react much to his topspin.
Neither at Shanghai but Rafa did ok there.
It looks to me the S&V players are having problem at Paris, both Mahut and Mischa Zverev losing their first set, Mischa gets bageled by Chung.
I agree with you lucky, Cilic has definitely a great chance of making the finals, perhaps winning it all. However, Pouille and Anderson also have nice draws to go far there.
In Rafa’s quarter the only player I feel that can give him trouble is Querrey, but he has to play lights out to have chances, wich is unlikely given is current form.
I think Rafa has everything on his side to reach at least the SF. There, if DelPo has enough on the tank（he has a killing draw, could get really tired going into the SF）then he has a decent shot of making the final.
I really hope Rafa can get his maiden title at Paris 💪
I do not see Querrey beating Rafa. He hasn’t been in good form lately and Rafa played great tennis to win Beijing and get to the final in Shanghai. These courts may not be ideal for Rafa but if he plays the way he did in Beijing and Shanghai, I think he could do well.
I can see Cilic doing well here and getting to the final. I would love to see Rafa win this title for the first time, but London awaits. I am sure Rafa wants to be ready for the WTF.
I also don’t think Sascha will go that far here. I don’t see Goffin beating Cilic.
If Delpo has enough left in the tank he could go deep. I don’t think you can count him out.
R. Nadal might not win this title, I don’t think he can.
If Rafa wants to win Paris badly, he will win it. But I dont think he will stretch himself too much.
Is he not playing to win?
That’s an excuse.
Paris Masters –
QF:
Nadal over Querrey
Dimitrov over A. Zverev
Cilic over Tsonga
Pouille over Anderson
SF:
Nadal over Dimitrov
Cilic over Pouille
Final:
Cilic over Nadal
Rafa will never get a better chance than this to get that elusive Bercy title… This tournament is absolutely his to lose. Any remaining guys in the tournament who could realistically trouble him here (Cilic, Zverev, Delpo) are all tired from playing many weeks straight, while Rafa is coming in relatively fresh. As long as his knee holds up, I would say he has about an 85% chance of getting his first Paris title. If Delpo can even make it to the semis, I just can’t imagine him having remotely enough left to get through a fresh Rafa, even indoors. Paris has always been a relatively slow indoor court which should also help Rafa. It still has the relatively lower bounce that indoor courts have, but its slow. No way in hell I’m picking anyone but Rafa to win this title…
Actually Rafa didn’t do badly at Paris Masters, reaching the QF at least. He didn’t play Paris Masters until 2007 where he reached the final (lost to Nalbandian) in his first appearance there. He didn’t play there in 2010/2011, 2012, 2014 and 2016. He seems to skip Paris Masters quite a lot, either due to fatigue or injury. He reached SF in 2009 and 2013.
dimitrov whose well rested, will secure at least a semi-final spot, neither isner, (the out of form ) zverev or the really tired Delpotro have chances against him
so it is Dimitrov in the semi and then it depends on Rafa situation, if he is still in he will make it to the final but if hopefully somehow someone manage to beat him? then Dimitrov will win his second master this year
Com’oon Dimi
Will Dimi? You forget there’s also someone in the other half of the draw that he has to beat in the final!
the bottom half of the draw is a joke by all means !!
Joke? You don’t call Cilic a joke, or Tsonga or Pouille or Goffin.
OK, to a (healthy) Federer it would be a joke, let’s be honest.
He’s played all four of those guys indoors and is a peRFect 8-0.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rYMKA9W9ps
#LittleBitEh.
Assuming Rafa beats Chung/M. Zverev, will they be presenting his YE#1 trophy on court post-match? Or will they present it at WTF?
It’s WTF every year I’m pretty sure
I am nervous about tomorrow. Rafa tightens up in such situations when big milestone on the line .
I think Rafa will be fine. He’s got the #1 year end ranking. No reason for him to get nervous now.
Rafa will be nervous but don’t worry OK!
Even if he managed to lose his first match in Paris, all he would have to do is win 1 single round robin match in WTF. It would take the most unthinkable, unfathomable epic failure for Rafa to not win one more match for the remainder of the season. That kind of collapse is just not something that happens to a player of Rafa’s calabre. The only way he will lose his next 4 matches is if his knee goes bad, and he is forced to withdraw or something like that. And that is like a one in a million chance. Rafa’s knee could suddenly hurt more than it ever has in the middle of his next match, and he would STILL fight to win it. I think he will be more dterminded than ever to get that win tomorrow.
Lol Sanju. Relax Rafa will be fine.
I wanted Delpo to make the WTF, but with his draw in Paris it seems a little far fetched now. Here’s an interesting draw analysis until the quarter finals http://www.138mph.com/tennis-the-quarter-finals-at-the-paris-masters-revealed-and-analyzed/