Paris Masters preview and picks

The stakes cannot get much higher at a Masters 1000 event. Not only is the Paris title on the line, but there are also four World Tour Finals spots left to be decided. Six contenders are battling for the remaining berths in London: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Milos Raonic, and Grigor Dimitrov. Meanwhile, the year-end world No. 1 ranking is in play thanks to Roger Federer’s recent hot streak. The Shanghai and Basel champion is gaining on Novak Djokovic, who is back in action this week following the birth of his son.

BNP Paribas Masters

Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: The Paris draw certainly did everything in its power to make year-end No. 1 all come down to London. That’s because the top half of the bracket is absolutely loaded. Ferrer, in far better form than Stan Wawrinka at the moment, landed in Djokovic’s half. Murray, the Shenzhen, Vienna, and Valencia champion, is in Djokovic’s quarter. Nishikori, Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner, and Gilles Simon are additional seeds in the top half. Even the unseeded floaters are daunting; among them are Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gael Monfils, Leonardo Mayer, Julien Benneteau, Fernando Verdasco, Vasek Pospisil, Valencia runner-up Tommy Robredo, and Basel runner-up David Goffin.

Djokovic, who has not played since Shanghai, could have to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber and then either Isner or Monfils just to reach the quarters. Murray and Dimitrov are on course for an early meeting in the third round, with the winner possibly to face Djokovic. Ferrer may be required to defeat an on-fire Goffin and Simon—the Shanghai runner-up—in order to reach the last eight, where either Nishikori or Tsonga would likely await. Nishikori will open with the winner of an intriguing first-rounder between Pospisil and Robredo.

Federer, meanwhile, has a dream draw as the No. 2 seed. The other seeds in the 33-year-old Swiss’ section are an ice-cold Raonic, a hobbled Roberto Bautista Agut (withdrew last week in Valencia with an abdominal injury), and an out-of-sorts Fabio Fognini. Federer will kick off his campaign against a Frenchman—either Jeremy Chardy or Kenny De Schepper—before a more likely third-round opponent than Fognini is Ivo Karlovic. The Raonic-RBA section presents a great opportunity for unseeded threats such as Richard Gasquet and Jack Sock.

The bracket’s third quarter is wide open. Wawrinka has lost his opening match at three straight tournaments and Berdych got blown out by Pablo Andujar in the Valencia first round. Fellow seed Felicino Lopez also fell early in Valencia, so the door could be open for Kevin Anderson (unless he has to face Berdych in the quarterfinals). Wawrinka can expect to have a tough second-rounder on his hands with either Dominic Thiem or Alexandr Dolgopolov, while Lopez will probably have to begin his week against a confident Sam Querrey.

First-round upset alert: Lukas Rosol over (SE) David Goffin. All things being equal, Goffin would be a lock to beat Rosol right now. However, the Belgian has to be gassed near the end of an amazing second half of 2014. He has played 46 matches since Wimbledon, winning 43 of them. Five of those came this past week in Basel, where Goffin upset Raonic before succumbing to Federer. This will be a quick turnaround, plus the outcome could be on Rosol’s racket on a fast indoor hard court thanks to the Czech’s firepower.

Second-round upset alerts: (Q) Jack Sock over (7) Milos Raonic. Raonic has won five in a row at Sock’s expense since losing their first-ever encounter last year in Memphis. However, three of those five went to three sets, one featured two tiebreakers, and the other was 6-4, 7-6. Sock has never played better than he is right now, while Raonic appears to be slumping his way out of a World Tour Finals ticket.

(Q) Sam Querrey over (12) Feliciano Lopez. Lopez may be a three-time finalist in Shanghai, but his lifetime match record at the Paris Masters is just 9-10. He lost his Vienna opener to Thomaz Bellucci and got unceremoniously bounced out of Valencia in the second round by Pablo Carreno Busta. Querrey, on other hand, won three straight Challenger titles this fall and also qualified for the Paris main draw over the weekend.

Ivo Karlovic over (16) Fabio Fognini. This would, of course, only be an upset according to ranking and seed. Karlovic is wrapping up a great season, whereas Fognini is stumbling down the stretch and for the most part looking disinterested. It’s hard to imagine the Italian maintaining composure, too, while watching a flurry of aces whiz past him.

Hot: Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Leonardo Mayer, Sam Querrey, Jack Sock, Ivo Karlovic

Cold: Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jurgen Melzer, Jerzy Janowicz

Quarterfinal predictions: Grigor Dimitrov over Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer over Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych over Kevin Anderson, and Roger Federer over Richard Gasquet

Semifinals: Ferrer over Dimitrov and Federer over Berdych

Final: Federer over Ferrer

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!