The stakes cannot get much higher at a Masters 1000 event. Not only is the Paris title on the line, but there are also four World Tour Finals spots left to be decided. Six contenders are battling for the remaining berths in London: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Milos Raonic, and Grigor Dimitrov. Meanwhile, the year-end world No. 1 ranking is in play thanks to Roger Federer’s recent hot streak. The Shanghai and Basel champion is gaining on Novak Djokovic, who is back in action this week following the birth of his son.
BNP Paribas Masters
Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: The Paris draw certainly did everything in its power to make year-end No. 1 all come down to London. That’s because the top half of the bracket is absolutely loaded. Ferrer, in far better form than Stan Wawrinka at the moment, landed in Djokovic’s half. Murray, the Shenzhen, Vienna, and Valencia champion, is in Djokovic’s quarter. Nishikori, Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner, and Gilles Simon are additional seeds in the top half. Even the unseeded floaters are daunting; among them are Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gael Monfils, Leonardo Mayer, Julien Benneteau, Fernando Verdasco, Vasek Pospisil, Valencia runner-up Tommy Robredo, and Basel runner-up David Goffin.
Djokovic, who has not played since Shanghai, could have to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber and then either Isner or Monfils just to reach the quarters. Murray and Dimitrov are on course for an early meeting in the third round, with the winner possibly to face Djokovic. Ferrer may be required to defeat an on-fire Goffin and Simon—the Shanghai runner-up—in order to reach the last eight, where either Nishikori or Tsonga would likely await. Nishikori will open with the winner of an intriguing first-rounder between Pospisil and Robredo.
Federer, meanwhile, has a dream draw as the No. 2 seed. The other seeds in the 33-year-old Swiss’ section are an ice-cold Raonic, a hobbled Roberto Bautista Agut (withdrew last week in Valencia with an abdominal injury), and an out-of-sorts Fabio Fognini. Federer will kick off his campaign against a Frenchman—either Jeremy Chardy or Kenny De Schepper—before a more likely third-round opponent than Fognini is Ivo Karlovic. The Raonic-RBA section presents a great opportunity for unseeded threats such as Richard Gasquet and Jack Sock.
The bracket’s third quarter is wide open. Wawrinka has lost his opening match at three straight tournaments and Berdych got blown out by Pablo Andujar in the Valencia first round. Fellow seed Felicino Lopez also fell early in Valencia, so the door could be open for Kevin Anderson (unless he has to face Berdych in the quarterfinals). Wawrinka can expect to have a tough second-rounder on his hands with either Dominic Thiem or Alexandr Dolgopolov, while Lopez will probably have to begin his week against a confident Sam Querrey.
First-round upset alert: Lukas Rosol over (SE) David Goffin. All things being equal, Goffin would be a lock to beat Rosol right now. However, the Belgian has to be gassed near the end of an amazing second half of 2014. He has played 46 matches since Wimbledon, winning 43 of them. Five of those came this past week in Basel, where Goffin upset Raonic before succumbing to Federer. This will be a quick turnaround, plus the outcome could be on Rosol’s racket on a fast indoor hard court thanks to the Czech’s firepower.
Second-round upset alerts: (Q) Jack Sock over (7) Milos Raonic. Raonic has won five in a row at Sock’s expense since losing their first-ever encounter last year in Memphis. However, three of those five went to three sets, one featured two tiebreakers, and the other was 6-4, 7-6. Sock has never played better than he is right now, while Raonic appears to be slumping his way out of a World Tour Finals ticket.
(Q) Sam Querrey over (12) Feliciano Lopez. Lopez may be a three-time finalist in Shanghai, but his lifetime match record at the Paris Masters is just 9-10. He lost his Vienna opener to Thomaz Bellucci and got unceremoniously bounced out of Valencia in the second round by Pablo Carreno Busta. Querrey, on other hand, won three straight Challenger titles this fall and also qualified for the Paris main draw over the weekend.
Ivo Karlovic over (16) Fabio Fognini. This would, of course, only be an upset according to ranking and seed. Karlovic is wrapping up a great season, whereas Fognini is stumbling down the stretch and for the most part looking disinterested. It’s hard to imagine the Italian maintaining composure, too, while watching a flurry of aces whiz past him.
Hot: Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Leonardo Mayer, Sam Querrey, Jack Sock, Ivo Karlovic
Cold: Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jurgen Melzer, Jerzy Janowicz
Quarterfinal predictions: Grigor Dimitrov over Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer over Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych over Kevin Anderson, and Roger Federer over Richard Gasquet
Semifinals: Ferrer over Dimitrov and Federer over Berdych
Final: Federer over Ferrer
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Ricky “what have you done for me lately” Dimon is at it again…………he is gonna pick Fed in every ensuing tournament until he loses, then he will jump onto the next winning horse!
Sigh, have to agree with his pick though: Fed it is………
Normally, I’d be choosing Novak for this tournament, but Novak has the draw from hell, and Roger…..doesn’t. There’s barely anyone in Roger’s half who can even make it competitive for him. Can’t see him not easily making it to the finals. As for Novak’s half, he’s got a lot of landmines to negotiate before the final match. Hard to know what his form will be, but it could very well not be 100 percent.
Novak over roger in the final.
I am not writing off Novak just yet. He does have a tough draw, that’s for sure. Will his mind be on tennis after the birth pf his son? The #1 ranking is very much at stake.
I have to believe that Fed is highly motivated to finish the year at #1. He’s playing well now and his draw is ideal.
Fed certainly has the better draw.. on paper that is! My pick is Novak he’s got to be fresh and motivated. Fed and Murray will be fatigued! Hope a lower ranked guy makes a run i.e Dimitrov
as in, you hope Dimitrov qualifies for London?
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
Santi Geraldo has his own like of clothing, with “Santi Geraldo” emblazoned boldly on……….shades of Venus Williams but Venus doesn’t have her name on her line I don’t think……..
^^should be line instead of like………..
The music during play at the Paris Masters is not just background music, it’s in the foreground! Doing my head in………….
^^^^ +1
If it has that effect on us what must it do to the players. Cant recall which match It was but at one point a player appealed to the umpire for the volume to be lowered.
At least the spectators are less rowdy than usual. Mostly any heckles are quickly shushed by the rest of the crowd.
I’m becoming seriously bored by the incessant references at every possible opportunity to Djokovic’s status as a new dad. For goodness sake they’ve produced a son not the heir to the bloody throne.
The answer is to turn the sound off. You won’t be missing anything because all the commies do is gossip they don’t commentate on the match.
If only it was possible to cut out just the commentary but I find watching a match in total silence a bit spooky.
How about the 20yr old Pouille ranked at No.833 toppling the giant Karlovic in straight sets?
Yes, Pouille was impressive and he did it with such ease. 61 64 is outstandingly impressive. Either Ivo’s serve was a bit off or Pouille is the best returner of serve in history. Ivo’s only served 5 aces as opposed to 33 against Roger.
I only caught the match in the 2nd set, scratched my head about the 1st set score………
His serve was AWOL but Pouille said afterwards he concentrated on reading the direction and taking it early but he also outplayed him in every other department. It’ll be interesting to see how he deals with Foggy.
Just spotted my mistake. I was looking at his doubles ranking…………..
Well outplaying Ivo in every department apart from the serve is not that hard. A level headed, and I stress ‘level headed’, Foggy is a different kettle of fish.
Too right. His level headed matches are few and far between – the last time I can recall was when he trounced Andy at the Davis Cup last spring.
Raonic’s 7 mins bathroom break is allowed but Rafa gets docked his first serve for seconds over the time limit between points.
A Fed twin on Severin Luthi’s knee……….
Waiting to see BB baby-sitting Stefan in the Djokovic box, in time……
#CoachesAreTheNewBabysitters
^^^^Hilarious
Chardy-choke………
Can’t decide who’s choking most, Chardy or Fed……………
Fed playing sloppy tennis today.
The audience is clearly cheering for Chardy, I guess the media will have us believe otherwise.
Chardy sneaks the 2nd set. It’ll be downhill all the way now for him.
If we didn’t know Federer is drooling at the thought of overtaking Djokovic it would be tempting to think he’s in a hurry to leave Paris 😉
i assume most people want Fed to win so he can beat Raonic and thus put Ferrer in the WTFs….
^^WTF……..
Hadn’t considered that. But now you mention it, I would much rather see Ferrer take his rightful place at the O2. Raonic would be out of his depth in that company.
correct. and Raonic will probably make it if he gets to play Chardy or Pouille in the QFs instead of Fed, thus knocking out Ferrer.
Ricky Dimon (at 5:26 pm)
Jesus! Why should the Parisians want Ferrer to be in the WTFs?!
I could be wrong but I think Ricky meant people on Tenngrand, not people in France or Paris…………
Less than impressive performance from the Fed today. Wasn’t expecting he would make such heavy weather of this match up.
Fed wins (and has a bye in the next round vs. either Fognini or Pouille)
Augusta, I was also wondering about why the Parisiens would care whether Ferrer or Raonic made the WTF.
Regulation Fabio meltdown…………….
I fancy an RBA win against Raonic……….
Monfils over Djokovic for the upset tomorrow.
When the draw was announced the consensus view was Djokovic’s draw was the most brutal and Federer had the cushiest route to the final. Raonic was barely on the radar after his lacklustre showing at Basel.
Contrary to expectations, Novak has sailed through without dropping a set and Raonic is contesting his second Master’s final.
This promises to be a rout unless Raonic can pull himself together PDQ
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
djokovic is serving ridiculously well. his serve against Nishikori was also murderous
Agreed. It’s become a lethal weapon in his armoury.
MTO for Djokovic who appears to have an ankle problem.
raonic so nervous…bad play
VR agreed. Milos’ nerves continue to get the better of him on the big points.
Could be a completely different match otherwise.
Was much better against Fed.
Too many opportunities squandered.
Nole continues to play very well.
Which hasn’t impacted his game one iota so far. He is on the way to being the first to ever defend his title here in 60 years.
Novak is incredible on the hard courts.
Oh boy, raonic is not even able to serve well today. Novak’s return, baseline game and perhaps this being a final is too much pressure for Milos. He was much better against federer but it is also true that djokovic puts raonic out of his comfort zone more !
The crowd have gone off the boil and Djokovic is positively smirking at how easy this final is.
And to think Raonic is going to London at the expense of poor Ferrer 🙁
Thank goodness ManU vs ManCity was on at the same time as this damp squib. My team, ManU lost, but glad I watched that abortion than this……….procession.
Enough said about that final. All credit to Jjokovic who would still have won even if the Raonic serve had not been AWOL.
The French are nuts, no?
https://twitter.com/juan_jo_sports/status/528935921337380864/photo/1
I didn’t see any of that year’s Paris Masters so my first thought was this was photo shopped. Then discovered it was for real. Whatever were thinking of? The poor man must have been cringing with embarrassment.
They weren’t done, @ed251137. Apparently, they followed that up with this, the following year:
https://twitter.com/juan_jo_sports/status/528947013614714881/photo/1
Parisian savoir faire, my un-adorned foot! More like bloody cheek………
^^It makes the Madrid “attendants” or whatever they’re called, look like schoolmarms.
Don’t know about surreal. More like soft porn. And out of order bearing in mind the number of young kids in the crowd. People bring their children to see tennis not the Folies Bergère.
Congrats once again to Novak. Raonic’s serve was off, but I’m thinking that part of that might be that he was trying to change it up a bit because of the ROS he was facing. I continue to be amazed at Novak’s skill in that area. He doesn’t just block it back, or chip it back, or get it back into play. Often, the placement on the return is very near the baseline even when returning those rockets from Milos: a true master of that skill.
What’s impressed me most about Djokovic is the improvement in his serve. I remember those days when he worked with Todd Martin, Djokovic’s serve was a joke, now it is a genuine weapon.
jpacnw,
I saw the replay of the final. I just wasn’t excited to see this one. I had a feeling that Raonic might not be up to the challenge. I totally agree about Novak’s ROS. It is a formidable weapon. He seemed to be in the zone and in complete command.
However, I also think that Novak has improved his serving tremendously over last year. I remember how he would double fault at crucial points in a match and juat seemed to struggle with that serve, but now he seems to have it all sorted out.
ed251137 (at 3:30 pm)
David Ferrer and Feliciano Lopez will go to London as alternates at the WTF. (Dimitrov said no, Gulbis is injured, Tsonga is preparing for DC).
They get paid for being there.
Ferrer may well get the chance to play. Nishikori’s fitness level is questionable and there is precious little recovery time before what is always a gruelling schedule at the O2.
BTW: Does anybody recall the 2008 WTF, or the World Tennis Cup as it was then called? The ATP had to go down as far as Stepanek (Ranked No.27) before finding somebody willing to go to Beijing as a replacement for Roddick who’d pulled out injured before his first rubber. That happened to be the year Djokovic won the title for the first time.
It was also the year Rafa was booed off the court in Paris for retiring injured from his match and was unable to take part in the WTF. He was widely criticised for this but nothing was said when Federer went on to withdraw from Paris citing a back problem.
ed251137 (at 7:22 pm),
—It was also the year Rafa was booed off the court in Paris for retiring…
nothing was said when Federer went on to withdraw from Paris citing a back problem.—
Isn’t it clear that hooligan-Fedfans booed!
Agreed. You have to wonder if Roland Garros and Bercy employ a Rent-a-Crowd to swell the spectators and raise the tension level. But you must admit the spectators have been more decorous this year.
.
ed251137 (at 8:05 pm),
—But you must admit the spectators have been more decorous this year—
As for the Paris Masters, I muted the sound. Commentators were unbearable.
Between them Koenig and Nick Lester managed to mention Nole’s ‘new status’ at least seven times during the course of the match, including what a life changing event it was and how it would inspire him to greater things………..etc. etc.
I don’t understand why the entire press corps have gone all mushy because there is now a Djokovic junior. I don’t recall such an outpouring of sentimentality when Federer fathered twins – not just once but twice
Birds do it, bees do it
Even educated fleas do it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RPerSEvP4Y
https://twitter.com/juan_jo_sports/status/529108363695493120
Milos was booed when he aced Federer on break point.