Paris final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Ferrer

David Ferrer is one win away from an improbable Paris title defense. Standing in Ferrer’s way on Sunday is Novak Djokovic.

There’s something about Paris for David Ferrer.

He captured his first-ever Masters 1000 title at this same indoor hard-court event last fall and earlier this season he reached his first Grand Slam final at the French Open. Now, Ferrer–against considerable odds–is back in the final of the BNP Paribas Masters.

The Spaniard’s latest run is surprising, to say the least–and not just because he is supposed to be at his best on clay. After stellar showings at the French Open and Wimbledon (he made it to the semis at the All-England Club), Ferrer slumped throughout most of the summer and even though he posted recent runner-up results in Stockholm and Valencia, he was favored to win those titles.

Suddenly, the 31-year-old is once again on top of his game and surging into London’s World Tour Finals. After taking out Lukas Rosol, Gilles Simon, and Tomas Berdych, Ferrer stunned countryman and world No. 1 Rafael Nadal 6-3, 7-5 in Saturday’s semifinals.

Up next for Ferrer on Sunday is a 16th career meeting with Novak Djokovic, against whom he is 5-10. Djokovic has won nine of their 11 hard-court encounters, including each of the last four and one this season (at the Australian Open). The Serb has won six consecutive sets against Ferrer–non closer than 6-4–since losing the first in last year’s U.S. Open semis.

Nobody is hotter than Djokovic right now. The world No. 2 is still in the race for the year-end top spot thanks to a perfect post-U.S. Open stretch. He captured titles in Beijing and Shanghai before extending his winning streak to 16 matches with Paris defeats of Pierre-Hugues Herbert, John Isner, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Roger Federer.

“It’s going to be a very difficult match,” Ferrer assured after his upset of Nadal. “I need to play very good to win tomorrow. I think I have to play similar like today and take my chance if I will have one chance.”

He may not, because Djokovic is in ruthless form. Ferrer managed to keep Nadal on the defensive with out-wide serves that opened up the court, but Djokovic’s return is far superior and he can take control of points early even when Ferrer makes first deliveries. On this surface, even though it is a setting the underdog is extremely comfortable with, Ferrer will have hard time sinking his teeth into rallies once Djokovic takes the initiative.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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53 Comments on Paris final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Ferrer

  1. Dont forget Djokovic will be battling his own demons. He has had some tough losses this year and he has proved he is not immune to pressure.

    If Ferrer can unsettle him the way he did Rafa it would not be a surprise if he took the first set. Not a hope in hell he will take another one though.

  2. Nole in two easy sets…Ferru isn’t playing that well…it was Rafa who allowed him to play the way he did…and Rafa created that image of Ferru being great at the moment…Ferru may run and fight but he does not have the weapons to trouble Nole…Nole for another masters title…

  3. Djoker in two sets.

    I also agree that Ferrer didn’t do anything spectacular, it was more about Rafa not playing the way we know he can.

  4. Against any other player than Djokovic Ferrer might have had a chance of breaking a streak of six consecutive losses in finals. Before that he had won six out of six finals between June 2012 and February 2013.

  5. As a matter of interest does anyone think the outcome might have been different if Rafa and Ferru had been playing the final?

    #Hypothesis

    • I think Rafa would have won it

      I even feel its all about clinching the YE No 1 title. Once Rafa has it wrapped in his ag, he will play freely. The first match at RR is key. Unfortunately Rafa plays Ferru there.

      Hope Fed takes out Djoko in 1st RR, he is capable of it.

    • @Sanju, I told you, yesterday’s match was not worth stepping up to for Rafa. At 5-4 in both sets Novak stepped up because he wanted to win. Rafa did not do this yesterday, he left the door open for Ferru. Obvious, no?

      • Do you honestly believe Novak is stronger than Rafa mentally? Because that is what it came down to, Novak wearing Ferru down mentally…………..Rafa just let it go.

    • Sanju,

      I said that Ferrer didn’t do anything special against Rafa. It’s not like he hasn’t played well against Rafa in the past. But Rafa always managed to respond and step it up another notch. But this time he couldn’t do it. Just as he couldn’t do it in the final in Beijing and the semi in Shanghai.

      I agree with ritb. He left the door open for Ferrer. Djoker wasn’t about to do that. In fact, this is very similar to the way Rafa was losing to Djoker in 2011. He would get broken when the set was 5-4 in Djoker’s favor. The same thing happened to Ferrer.

      Rafa has always been mentally tougher than Ferrer. That’s how he has dominated their matches. It’s true that he has so many more weapons, but in the end it’s that fierce mental win that has done the job.

  6. I mean really gotta hand it to Djkovic..what a rbound after USO..17 wins in a row..3 titles back to back.

    I mean he should have been demoralized but what a way he has rebounded..so much that he is seriously challenging Rafa for YE No 1(:-

    • Yawn………3 titles in a row, one of which is a 500 tournament. Excuse me if I am not overly impressed, Rafa’s done better with 3 in a row, one of which is a Slam and no measly 500 tournament in the picture.

      • Rafa did 4 in a row RITB.. 1 500 , 2 Masters and slam FO

        But I am not comparing, we really gotta applaud Novak..he has collected himself so well..it is not easy to win this way after really tough losses in RG, Wimby, Montrea, Cincy, USO

        On the other hand Rafa has just faltered after USO

        I am so pissed that Rafa has made it so tough for himself n his fans that he has failed to clinch the YE No 1 still despite having 3 tourneys to do it (:-

    • Sanju,

      This is exactly what Djoker did last year. The difference is that he also did much better throughout the year as a whole. It was expected that he would do well here. These courts favor his game. So it’s not news. I expected him to do well. I knew that Rafa most likely wouldn’t have great success at this time. I am not surprised that he hasn’t won a title. As I said previously, what concerns me is how he has lost at Beijing and Shanghai and now Paris. Those losses weren’t very competitive. I didn’t see the fight from Rafa. That’s what bothers me.

  7. Well done Nole, Pretty predictable though. Poor David played better than Nole, except when it mattered.
    @ed
    Au contraire, Duro and Danica, real Nole fans were ALWAYS welcome on the sofa. Those horrible fake Nole fans who ruined TT, NEVER!

  8. I’d forgotten the strange sculpture trophy. No wonder Rafa hasn’t bothered to win it – he would look silly trying to bite at that 🙂

    It’s going to be a rush for Nole and Daveed to get onto the court on time tomorrow.

  9. @Sanju, thanks for reminding me about Rafa’s clay run. I had his HC run: Montreal, Cincy and USO in mind. Proves my point though……….

    This is Novak’s bread and butter part of the season. For him to falter here would be a disaster worse than the FO, Wimby and USO disappointments. It’s the same as expecting Rafa to falter in the clay swing, doesn’t happen. This is why I am not too impressed with Novak’s great showing, it was expected. I am more impressed with Rafa tbh because this is his worst part of the season and he has done way better than usual this time of the year.

    #Perspective

    • Quite right. That makes a lot better sense.

      At least for next year the schedule has been adjusted to give players a break between Paris and London which will make the playing field more level.

  10. I am very ashamed of myself not to have bothered watching the final because I was sulking that Rafa was not in it. I am happy that it was not a straight forward win, that vindicates Rafa to a certain extent.

  11. Ferrer made it slightly more competitive than a lot of people were expecting. Including Djokovic himself !

    I thought for the most part the crowd were better behaved this year.

  12. Nole is not playing his best either, which is mainly why Ferrer was able to push him a bit…however, even Nole’s 80% was enough to beat Ferru who has never believed he could win this one anyway…Rafa was below his I say 50%, and that is why he lost…and I also believe similar to rafaisthebest said at the different thread: Rafa just let it go…

    London’s calling..

  13. Nole said he is experiencing some physical issues but nothing he has not experienced before

    On No 1 he said, its in Rafas hands who is the YE No 1, he jst needs to play at this level

    Yes Novak did not play that well, Ferru gifted him the match..both sets

  14. Can you win slams next year? Federer: “the French is a different story” but everywhere else “it’s more in my racquet than anybody else’s”

    LOL

  15. RT @juanjo_sports: “Ferru will now embark on his fourth (!!!!) straight week of tennis. He’s played a 250, a 500, a M1000 and now the WTFs.”

    Even the Duracell bunny runs out of gas at some point……..

    • rafaisthebest@November 3, 2013 at 6:28 pm
      —Ferru will now embark on his fourth (!!!!) straight week of tennis.—-

      His 7th (!!!!!!!) straight week. Ferru has played:
      23.09.2013 ATP-250 Kuala Lumpur
      30.09.2013 ATP-500 Beijing
      07.10.2013 Masters 1000 Shanghai
      14.10.2013 ATP-250 Stockholm
      21.10.2013 ATP-500 Valencia
      28.10.2013 Masters 1000 Paris

  16. Until Shanghai, Novak Djokovic had not made a final in a HC M1000 in 2013, his best surface. Now, thanks to the fact that 6 out of the 9 M1000s are played on one surface, HC, he has now won 2.

    See why I find it hard to be impressed, @Sanju?

  17. I do agree that it would have been a disaster had Djoker not done well in the fall hard court season. That has been his bread and butter, in fact the hard court season overall. But prior to this time of year, Djoker hasn’t gotten it done. Rafa is the one who has done so well on hard courts this year.

    I don’t think Djoker is doing anything special. Maybe holding his serve better. Less double faults. But I didn’t think he was that impressive in his matches this week. I think Wawa was most likely thinking ahead to London and wasn’t going to kill himself in Paris at the quarterfinals. Fed made a match of it, taking Djoker to three sets. It will be interesting to see Fed and Djoker go at it in London. Djoker didn’t have to do anything great to beat Ferrer.

  18. Maybe this comment belongs on the Novak thread: we have yet to see from Novak that he is making serious changes to his game post 2011, I mean really evolving it rather than buying the hype that he has reached such a level that there is little improvement possible. I won’t hold my breath. He hasn’t done it in the two years following his golden year and I see no signs of him understanding there even is an issue. Thus 2014 will likely see him play in similar ways to the last two years instead of rising higher in various skills, which would at the same time prepare him to use what he can to his best ability just a few short years from now when he will start to approach 30.

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