The Rio de Janeiro semifinal lineup consists of three Grand Slam champions (the other is a slam runner-up), two singles gold medalists, and three of the top four seeds. Saturday will pit Andy Murray against Kei Nishikori before Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro.
Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the gold-medal match at the Rio Olympics on Saturday. Although Nadal leads the head-to-head series 8-4, they have split their eight most recent encounters with four wins apiece. They are also an even 4-4 lifetime on hard courts. Mainly because of Del Potro’s recurring wrist issues, these two veterans have faced each other only twice since 2011 and not a single time since 2013. In a pair of meetings three years ago, Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the Indian Wells final before Del Potro got the job done 6-2, 6-4 in Shanghai.
It has already been an emotional week in Rio de Janeiro for both men. Del Potro had to go up against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic right off the bat, but the 27-year-old Argentine powered his way to a stunning 7-6(4), 7-6(2) upset and then parlayed that into wins over Joao Sousa, Taro Daniel, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Nadal is a perfect 9-0 overall–singles and doubles combined–in Rio and he captured doubles gold with Marc Lopez in a back-and-forth showdown against Florin Mergea and Horia Tecau that lasted two and a half hours on Friday night. The fifth-ranked Spaniard also needed three sets in his singles quarterfinal, which he won 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 at the expense of Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal preceded that victory by defeating Federico Delbonis, Andreas Seppi, and Gilles Simon all in straight sets. Both physically and emotionally, the No. 3 seed may be running on something close to empty when he goes up against Del Potro. Unless Nadal takes an offensive approach to this match right from the start, he will be on the defensive–and perhaps defenseless–amidst an onslaught of Del Potro forehands.
Pick: Del Potro in 2
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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Andy Murray
Nobody endured tougher matches on Friday than Murray and Nishikori. Murray trailed by a break in the final set but recovered to beat Steve Johnson 6-0, 4-6, 7-6(2). Nishikori found himself one point from defeat on three occasions, but he erased a 6-3 deficit in a decisive tiebreaker and won the last five points of the match to stun Gael Monfils 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6). The result is an eighth career contest between two of the top seven players in the world. Murray is leading the head-to-head series 6-1, including 5-1 on hard courts (4-0 outdoors). Their most recent meeting produced one of the best matches of the 2016 campaign to date, with Murray triumphing 7-5, 7-6(6), 3-6, 4-6, 6-3 in a first-round Davis Cup rubber on the indoor hard courts of Great Britain.
The second-ranked Scot is already an Olympic gold medalist, having assumed the top spot on the podium four years ago in London. He has relied on that experience already in Rio, with extremely difficult victories over Johnson and Fabio Fognini to go along with more routine defeats of Viktor Troicki and Juan Monaco. Nishikori preceded his escape against Monfils by beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Millman, and Andrej Martin. It has to be said that the Japanese world No. 7 got flat-out lucky against Monfils (who double-faulted on match point at 6-5 in the third-set ‘breaker); he may not be so fortunate with a defending Olympic champion on the other side of the net.
Pick: Murray in 3
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well it isn’t that ” when”. It is “now” and now he has a bad wrist and he is 30. Also he had played a lot of matches in the last few days.