Olympics SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Del Potro, Murray vs. Nishikori

The Rio de Janeiro semifinal lineup consists of three Grand Slam champions (the other is a slam runner-up), two singles gold medalists, and three of the top four seeds. Saturday will pit Andy Murray against Kei Nishikori before Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the gold-medal match at the Rio Olympics on Saturday. Although Nadal leads the head-to-head series 8-4, they have split their eight most recent encounters with four wins apiece. They are also an even 4-4 lifetime on hard courts. Mainly because of Del Potro’s recurring wrist issues, these two veterans have faced each other only twice since 2011 and not a single time since 2013. In a pair of meetings three years ago, Nadal prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the Indian Wells final before Del Potro got the job done 6-2, 6-4 in Shanghai.

It has already been an emotional week in Rio de Janeiro for both men. Del Potro had to go up against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic right off the bat, but the 27-year-old Argentine powered his way to a stunning 7-6(4), 7-6(2) upset and then parlayed that into wins over Joao Sousa, Taro Daniel, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Nadal is a perfect 9-0 overall–singles and doubles combined–in Rio and he captured doubles gold with Marc Lopez in a back-and-forth showdown against Florin Mergea and Horia Tecau that lasted two and a half hours on Friday night. The fifth-ranked Spaniard also needed three sets in his singles quarterfinal, which he won 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 at the expense of Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal preceded that victory by defeating Federico Delbonis, Andreas Seppi, and Gilles Simon all in straight sets. Both physically and emotionally, the No. 3 seed may be running on something close to empty when he goes up against Del Potro. Unless Nadal takes an offensive approach to this match right from the start, he will be on the defensive–and perhaps defenseless–amidst an onslaught of Del Potro forehands.

Pick: Del Potro in 2

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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Andy Murray

Nobody endured tougher matches on Friday than Murray and Nishikori. Murray trailed by a break in the final set but recovered to beat Steve Johnson 6-0, 4-6, 7-6(2). Nishikori found himself one point from defeat on three occasions, but he erased a 6-3 deficit in a decisive tiebreaker and won the last five points of the match to stun Gael Monfils 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6). The result is an eighth career contest between two of the top seven players in the world. Murray is leading the head-to-head series 6-1, including 5-1 on hard courts (4-0 outdoors). Their most recent meeting produced one of the best matches of the 2016 campaign to date, with Murray triumphing 7-5, 7-6(6), 3-6, 4-6, 6-3 in a first-round Davis Cup rubber on the indoor hard courts of Great Britain.

Murray

The second-ranked Scot is already an Olympic gold medalist, having assumed the top spot on the podium four years ago in London. He has relied on that experience already in Rio, with extremely difficult victories over Johnson and Fabio Fognini to go along with more routine defeats of Viktor Troicki and Juan Monaco. Nishikori preceded his escape against Monfils by beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Millman, and Andrej Martin. It has to be said that the Japanese world No. 7 got flat-out lucky against Monfils (who double-faulted on match point at 6-5 in the third-set ‘breaker); he may not be so fortunate with a defending Olympic champion on the other side of the net.

Pick: Murray in 3

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180 Comments on Olympics SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Del Potro, Murray vs. Nishikori

  1. I cannot pick against Rafa. I will say that I don’t know how much he will have left for tomorrow’s match. Delpo has had two three setters, but Rafa has been in the court in more overall matches this week. Two three set matches in one day is tough.

    I know that Rafa will give it all he’s got.

    I think Murray will get the win over Nishi in 3 sets.

  2. And if continuous tough matches in Rio isn’t bad enough for all four semi-finalists, the Cinci draw is out and play is starting in earnest today. Cinci draws look tough with fresh legs Raonic, Stan etc. up against the worn-out returning Olympic Rio foursome.

  3. Rafa should definitely withdraw from Cincy in my opinion. Would love to see him get more match practice but he needs to take good rest.

    • I agree. OI eghausted Rafa physically but also emotionally…the effort he is making is huge and worth every admiration! Great champion and true hero!

    • I cannot see Rafa playing in Cincy so close to the Olympics.

      I really don’t want him to push it after playing so much in a short period of time at the Olympics. It’s too much.

      I will be cheering Rafa in his match with Delpo. I still think that he can do it if he’s not too tired. The will is there always.

      Rafa will know what he has to do against Delpo. His cc backhand has been so effective in his matches and I expect him to continue to hit that shot well. Rafa will know that he must be aggressive against Delpo. He will need to get good court positioning on the baseline. Also he will have to serve well. I hope that Rafa continues to go for his ROS aggressively.

      No matter what, Rafa will do his best.

  4. Don’t know how much Rafa has left in him but we all agree Rafa is adrenaline player..Delpo also played pretty long matches and his physical fitness has always been an issue…

    Agressive play is definitely what Rafa needs which he lacked in the first set yesterday…Delpo’s FH is very dangerous feature but Rafa may have some good response to it with his top spins and mixing with some net play. Rafa should avoid camping behind the baseline. And I do hope Rafa to rely on his service better than yesterday…

    I will go with Rafa in three and Andy in two (Nishi’s game will fall apart most likely)

    Vamos Rafa!

  5. Knish vs Mandy? It’s the Olympics. It’s…different. Any given day I’d pick Murray. Today? Who knows? It’s the Olympics. Gonna say Kei in 3, but I’m terrible at picking.

    Rafa vs Delpo. Rafa’s got nothing left but heart. In Rafa’s case that’s still a lot as he showed yesterday. But Delpo’s got heart too, and he’s hungry. Really, really, really hungry. And he’ll have the crowd with him. I never pick on Rafa’s matches though. Can’t be objective. Vamos Rafa!

    • Good take Ramara.

      But I’ll take Muzza in this one.

      Not picking the other semi. Pulling for Rafa but if someone is gonna beat him, no nicer guy than Delpo and I’ll be cheering for the winner to take gold.

      Vamos Rafa!

      • It’s interesting how we are not picking for Rafa’s match. But we will be with him all the way!

        I don’t know that anyone could have expected Delpo to make a run at the olympics. I didn’t think he would beat Novak, but he did and has backed it up. It’s been really nice to see Delpo have this great run.

        After all that Delpo has been through, it has been so nice to see him have success at the Olympics.

  6. The crowd behind Rafa! Rafa is slowly picking up the pace…Delpo serving well as expected..,Delpo’s FH is just amazing..,

  7. Hawkeye,

    Thanks for the updates for those of us who just started watching.

    Delpo seems to be having a great serving day so far. I hope that Rafa can settle down and get the break back.

  8. They just showed a brief clip of the medal ceremony from last night with Rafa and Marc. They looked very emotional! Great to see it!

  9. Rafa playing deep (to my delight) and is moving well..,he often changing the rhythm during the point affects Delpo’s game..,hope Rafa continues doing it..,
    Go Rafa!

  10. Some good serving from Rafa. Annacone noting how Rafa is standing far wide on the ad court when serving. Vamosrafa has been pointing out that stance from Rafa.

    Rafa jamming Delpo with his serve.

  11. Rafa won 6 of 9 points in his second serve so far, per the commies. That’s a good thing!

    Rafa holds easily.

    I think he’s more settled down now and playing well.

    • This is shaping up to be quite the battle!
      Now Annacone is showing a freeze frame if Rafa’s changed serving stance to drag his opponents off the court! Good stuff from Annacone do we can see the difference in Rafa’s serving position. Annacone also noting that Rafa has taken some speed off his serves.

    • Yes! Rafa is hitting his backhand so well and using it to counter Delpo’s forehand.

      I can just feel rafa thinking out there! His tennis brain is working so well!

      Now break to win the first set!

  12. Has to be said that this is perhaps the slowest hc I can remember.

    Hard to hit through the court for both guys even though they’ve managed to a few times on a rare open court.

  13. I love Paul Annacone’s analysis! He showed how Rafa just floated back a ball and then Delpo moved too far over to hit his forehand and Rafa was able to hit a DTL forehand winne in that last game!

  14. There is something very very special about Rafa’s spirit at the Olympic games. He has kind of an indomitable spirit here! He just doesn’t want to settle anything for less than gold I guess lol.

    Anyway, a lot of tennis to be played. GO Rafa

  15. I think Rafa is doing a much better job of countering Delpo’s forehand than Novak did.

    Rafa is really spreading the court and not letting Delpo tee off on the forehand.

    • I hope that rafa can win this in 2 sets. That would help him a lot for the final.

      It’s great to hear the praise and respect Rafa is getting from the commies. Annacone was talking about how Rafa said he was only practicing for 20 minutes at a time to get ready for the Olympics!

      I don’t know how he’s doing it, but it’s just been really special to watch!

      Go Rafa!

  16. Delpo protects his BH side and hits three straight fh bombs to break.

    Letdown from Rafa could cost him the second set.

    Hope he’s not running out of steam.

  17. Delpo improved and Rafa dropped his intensity. Rafa needs to get more on his forehand….just a fraction more and please Rafa don’t hold back on that backhand.

    He will win ! vamos

  18. Really happy for Delpo for the 2nd set 😛
    Anyway, whoever wins, this is a great match and I feel honoured to watch this.

  19. Talking about strategy, it’s quite obvious that Rafa has to come into the court more, hit his FH more agressively. I kinda like the way that Delpo hits his backhand today as it allows him to hit his power forehand more frequently.
    #delpoforthewin

  20. I do think that Rafa’s level dropped in that second set and Delpo raised his level of play.

    It’s been a great match to watch. Rafa needs to up the ante here.

  21. murray and nadal already have gold. would love to see delpo get one too especially because of the injuries that has set back his career.

    unfortunately, it looks like it will be a final between murray v nadal to determine who will olympics tennis goat.

  22. SICK forehand winner from Nadal.

    Rafa can’t generate that much pace at the moment….he is feeling a bit jaded I guess. Juan Martin playing really well

    • I have to keep watching, even though the nerves are getting to me.

      It’s just too good not to watch,

      Both guys really stepping it up.

  23. If they go to 6-6 will there be a tie-breaker?
    Because four years ago Federer won 19-17 with Delpo in the semis, so at the time there were no tie-breakers in final sets.
    I guess there will be now because some matches at this olympics were decided in a final set tiebreak (example Murray-Johnson and Muller-Janowicz)

    Who decides whether there will be final set during tennis olympics? ITTF or the local organisators?

  24. YES , YES , YESSSSSSS!!!

    Please win this Rafa!!! Respect fo Juan Martin as well!! What a match this is! London 2012 Fed-Delpo and now this but this’s more special coz it has RAFAAAA

  25. shittttt…. Rafa had it on his racket to save it but… it wasn’t to be…

    Many congrats to Delpo, love the guy. BUt, poor Rafa 🙁 he gave it all he had! Rafa was so low on energy in the third set…he was not getting length on his groundies but he was just not willing to go away!

    Rafa is back and so is Delpo!

    Free ride to the gold medal for Murray. How will Delpo play best of five!!1

  26. delighted for delpo but he escaped major chokes in three different games where could’ve finished it.

    danger from such a win is he might feel like he’s already played his final mentally. murray might be in for an easy one.

    • Rafa had the shot. The I/O forehand was wide open. I don’t know how he missed it. I really thought when he saved match point to make it 6-5 that he was destined to win.

      I just feel for Rafa because he gave it his all. He left it all out on the court. He was tired and just playing on sheer will and heart. I knew he wanted it that much, so of course I wanted him to win.

      Congratulations to Delpo. But I am so proud of Rafa for playing like a champion and never giving up. To come back and play for the first time since his injury and just bring his best, well I am a very proud and grateful fan.

      I don’t know if Rafa will have anything left for the bronze medal match with Nishi. He really put it all out there to win this one and play for another gold singles medal.

      I would be shocked if Murray doesn’t win the gold,

  27. no-one can criticise rafa for missing the last shot. he must have been running on fumes for a lot of that match and his fight was amazing. am gutted but pleased for delpo who has suffered so much and deserves to be back at the top table where he belongs.
    don’t see how either rafa or delpo could win tomorrow after that match, especially as murray had a very easy win.
    rafa doesn’t seem to go for the t serve any more – maybe he thinks he can’t make them? that used to be a big weapon for him when he needed to pull things out.

    • am worried that rafa won’t have anything left in the tank when he plays kei. he must win bronze after that incredible effort.

      • get lost troll. you are ridiculous beyond belief. no-one is a bigger fake than you. the fact that you continually use rafa’s name to try to bully and harass people shows that you don’t care about him or respect him. no-one who really did would exploit his name for their own malicious purposes.

  28. Oh my Gosh!
    Delpo you beauty!!
    You have been sorely missed. Can’t really express my happiness right now.

    Both the guys gave their all out on the court today.

    How I wish the final also had been a best of 3. That would have surely given Delpo the Gold.
    Nevertheless, reaching the final is an extraordinary achievement in itself.
    #HailDELPO

  29. Amy, that is what I have been talking about. It is his new serving position that has taken that clutch serve away from him. Second serve surely benefits but first serve not so sure…the slider works well but the big one is gone.

    Rafa is a lion! He will be ready for USO.Please pull out from Cincy

    • vr i do have a lot of doubts about it. because he has to have the option of the t-serve especially in the slams.
      do you remember i said he was going to win USO? and i never make those predictions…

  30. Keeping the emotions of this match aside, I thought Muzz played really well against Kei. very rarely seen him hitting groundstrokes with purpose. He really amped-up his FH and BH today.

    Thoughts?

  31. Rafa coulld have won but it was not meant to be! He fought so hard! He was mentally eghausted and it took a toll in the crucial moments like that last shot! But Delpo played great again! The way he dispatched Novak in 2 and now managed to get the best of Rafa he deserves to be in the final!

    Rafa will be too tired to fight with Kei…but it’s great to see healthy Rafa. His wrist seems ok!
    Vamos!

  32. I would never blame Rafa for missing that last shot. I just wanted him to make it because he had fought so hard to stay in the match. What a warrior!

    If he had to lose to someone, then let it be Delpo who has gone through so much difficulty.

    Rafa knows that he put it all out there and left it on the court. That is all anyone can ask of their favorite player.

    It would have been wonderful to see Rafa play for another gold medal or even a silver. But I don’t think there was any way Rafa would have had enough left to beat Murray.

    I don’t know what Rafa can summon up for the bronze medal match. I do hope that he pulls out of Cincy.

    It was beautiful to see Rafa giving it his all and producing such great tennis. Coming back from the wrist injury he showed that he still has the heart of a champion.

    Love you, Rafa!

    ☝️??

    • I saw a tweet that Rafa said he’s satisfied, that he gave it his best. And he’s always said that’s all anyone can do. Goodness knows I’m satisfied. Well, like Rafa, I always want more. But as they say in tennis, 10 days ago I’d have signed for this fantastic week! Rafa represented his country with pride and passion and joy and, incredibly, added luster to his own brilliant career. And, incidentally, what a comeback!

  33. Man I love del Po. It’s kinda sad to think how much greater he could’ve been if the injuries hadn’t happened but with them he’s still had an amazing career and I’m sure he has many more big moments ahead. Possibly a huge one tomorrow. Honestly I think del Po would’ve been a possible world number one without the injuries as he won his first GS at 20 and looked to be the next big thing but of course the injuries were unfortunate. So glad he’s showing he’s back and not gone. If he could play like this for the next few years slams aren’t out of the question for JMDP. VAMOS JUAN!! Sad for Rafa tho. Hope he does great at US open and in bronze match.

  34. Vamos del Potro! Remember when Rafa never lost those kind of matches? Feel sorry for him if he is too pooped to win bronze.

    • @Alyssa Nicolas

      It was always a surprise that Rafa entered for doubles and mixed doubles in the first place but at least he has the satisfaction of winning the men’s doubles. He has time to recover for the play-off with Nishi who seems to have an injury problem and was way off form against Murray.

  35. well it isn’t that ” when”. It is “now” and now he has a bad wrist and he is 30. Also he had played a lot of matches in the last few days.

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