Nitto ATP Finals title match preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Tsitsipas

A season mostly dominated by the top two players in the world who are well into their 30s will end with a member of the “Next” generation facing a member of…well…no generation in the final match.

With Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic exiting the tournament in round-robin competition before Roger Federer lost in the semis, it will be Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem battling for the Nitto ATP Finals title on Sunday evening.

Neither Tsitsipas nor Thiem was responsible for Nadal’s ouster, but they both played a part in sending Djokovic and Federer packing. Thiem upset Federer 7-5, 7-5 in Group B and then won a 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) thriller against Djokovic–who was eventually eliminated by Federer. Tsitsipas booked his spot on championship Sunday by beating Federer 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals.

Thus the stage–and a surprising one, at that–is set for a seventh career showdown between two players on the short list of contenders to become the next first-time Grand Slam champion. Thiem leads the head-to-head series 4-2, including 3-1 on hard courts and 1-0 in 2019. They faced each other earlier this fall in the Beijing final, with the Austrian triumphing 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

Amazingly enough, a win in that match would have given Tsitsipas his first-ever title at anything more than 250-point event. His three winners’ trophies have come from Stockholm (2018), Marseille (2019), and Estoril (2019). That is not to say he has underwhelmed on big stages by any means. Tsitsipas reached the semifinals of the Australian Open this season and he owns a combined five victories over the Big 3 in nine chances. Prior to his Saturday upset of Federer, the 21-year-old Greek went 2-1 in Group A with wins over Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev and a three-set loss to Nadal.

Having already clinched Group A by beating Federer and Djokovic in success, Thiem lost a relatively meaningless match to Matteo Berrettini. The fifth-ranked Austrian rebounded to topple Zverev–the defending champion–via a 7-5, 6-3 scoreline on Saturday night. With that Thiem moved to within one win of fourth hard-court title in 2019, and the first three all came at no less than the 500-point level.

“I didn’t feel that great indoors before (this fall),” said Thiem, who was making his first semifinal appearance inside the O2 Arena in his fourth trip. “I didn’t have that great success at this tournament the three previous years. And now I’m in the finals. It means so much to me….”

Now it is not Federer but rather an opponent five years his junior who stands in the 26-year-old’s way of his biggest-ever title.

“The first time I met him (was at the 2016 ATP Finals) as a hitting partner,” Thiem said of Tsitsipas. “I saw that he’s playing great, but I didn’t put so much attention on it because other things to focus on. And then he came on tour and we played our first match last year in Doha, like two years ago almost, and there I saw and I also felt his amazing potential…. Well, he really deserves it. He’s a good person. He’s a very good player with a very attractive style to watch.”

“Dominic has inspired me a lot to be a better version of myself when I’m out on the court,” Tsitsipas commented. “I see a lot of things that he does on the court and I try to do the same…. Dominic has always been someone that I looked up to and wanted to…wanted always to play with the same intensity and the same will that he puts in the court. He puts a lot of effort and a lot of…I would just describe him as an intense player.”

Perhaps the main similarity between the two rising stars is the one-handed backhand, which will be especially crucial on Sunday. Both have more reliable forehands, but Tsitsipas caught fire with his one-hander in the second set against Federer. The world No. 6’s entire all-court game has been clicking this week and his willingness to charge the net has also been effective on this relatively fast surface. Thiem has been more willing than usual to do the same, but his level that was on display against Federer and Djokovic in the first two matches has dipped ever so slightly.

Even though Tsitsipas has never been the last man standing at anything bigger than a 250, there is no denying his love for the big stage. Sunday in London, of course, is his biggest yet.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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