Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers and for the second straight year at the Nitto ATP Finals when they battle for a spot in the championship match on Saturday night.
Their round-robin showdown last fall was a memorable one, as Nadal stormed back from a 5-1 deficit in the third set to prevail 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4)–although both men ended up missing out on a semifinal spot. That improved the Spaniard’s record against Medvedev to 3-0 lifetime. Their previous encounter was even more of a thriller. In a famous 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal held off a furious charge by the Russian to triumph 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4.
“In tennis, at our level, if you lose from 5-1 and having a match point, there is no other word to describe it than ‘choke,'” Medvedev said when asked earlier this week about his London loss to Nadal. “You have to win the match, there is no other way around it. That was not the case and you cannot change the past, so you just have to learn from this match.”
The world No. 4 has clearly learned from last year’s performance inside the O2 Arena, where he went winless in round-robin competition. It also helps that this time around he did not play six consecutive finals during the stretch run of the season. Far more rested in 2020 than he was in 2019, Medvedev won the Paris Masters two weeks ago and so far in London he has erased both Diego Schwartzman and Novak Djokovic in straight sets.
Nadal was also outstanding in round-robin play. His only loss came against Dominic Thiem in what is the best match of the tournament to date. The world No. 2 also picked up wins over Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, the latter via a 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 decision in a winner-take-all battle on Thursday.
He will have to be just as good if not better against an in-form Medvedev.
“He’s playing amazing now,” Nadal said of the 24-year-old. “He played semifinals in New York and now winning in Paris and winning two matches here. Of course he has plenty of confidence and playing very, very high level. But we are in the semifinals of the World Tour Finals, so we can’t expect another story, no?”
But it could be a different story from their encounter last fall. Medvedev should have won even though he was in far worse shape than is at the moment. The Group A champion has been awesome this week and as good as Nadal has been it is no sure thing that the 34-year-old can play four great matches in a row on an indoor hard court.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
WWW?
What did I tell sanju! Waiting for the Dom pick to complete the set!
The picks are logical amy..I’m sure on this forum more than 60 percent will pick meddy
Atm, with a 140 votes in, it’s 60-40 in favor of Nadal. Vamos Rafa!
Really, I think it’s a toss-up which of the 4 win it all. Maybe the guy with the easier semi tomorrow?
How about Rafa playing FIVE great matches in a row on an indoor hard court? Why not, just because he hasn’t done it before?
There is no clear favorite tomorrow. Based on indoor HC pedigree, Medvedev has the edge. Based on H2H it’s Rafa. The Russian can’t afford any mental blip – but he may as well choke one more time.
Nadal has constantly improved his indoor HC game. It’s the first time that he reaches this event well rested and in good health. He already had his share of bad luck to run into a more-than-inspired Thiem (although it might be better for him that he faces Daniil instead of Novak tomorrow).
Who else if not Rafa knows how to raise his level as he advances in a tournament? It’s true, he never actually did it on an indoor HC, but did he really have the chance?
Logic does not serve us too well to predict this match. It is a bit strange to assume that Nadal won’t play that well. However, Medvedev may play even better, like Thiem did few days ago. It’s Ricky’s gut feeling to pick Medvedev. I don’t have any gut feeling, but I really hope it goes Rafa’s way.
Thiem in three,Meddy in three
🙂
Medvedev 2-0
Djokovic 2-0
Goran, is it you???
Matches between these 2 will always be close on a hard court when both players are playing well due to it being a favourable matchup for Nadal, however, Medvedev is playing at a higher level than Nadal right now and the situational factors negate any matchup edge that might exist.
I doubt there is any player on the planet that can beat Medvedev at the moment, in these conditions, maybe Djokovic if he improves again in the semi final against Thiem but most likely it will be a similar result to their round robin match.
Medvedev 2-1 with a bias towards 2-0.
BTW, even if Nadal plays 4 great matches in a row it wont be good enough because those 3 great matches that he already played won’t win this match.
It’s a great match up….yet again, and tough to call…but I’ll take Med in 2.
Med in 2 or 3
Med has a chance here if he serves well. I have enough for the big 3. Come one, Med, pls send him home.
Nadal is playing great but Medvedev’s flat ground shots will be tough for the bull to match. The match, except for some unforeseen weird stuff or a mental meltdown by Medvedev like he had last year, should be won by Medvedev…… https://www.138mph.com/nadal-to-play-medvedev-in-the-semifinals-of-atp-finals/
im not sure if daniil had ever been favored over rafa and that will play a big factor in this match tonight. all the presure is on daniil and he has always had mental lapses and when you play nadal you have to play good and mentally stay tough druing the whole match , few rounds ago i predicted a theim medvedev fianl but im goin with nadal bc the factor that daniil might have some mental lapses and that will give rafa the match!! vamos rafa
First time in a very very long time I find myself rooting for Novak today. Theim was just relentless but Novak was not really on point today!
Now let’s see what Rafa has in his arsenal against Daniil! Vamos, Rafa!
Counted chickens early, Mona😀
Keep your mind sharp and focused, remain confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnXgNEDW4AAe2FX?format=jpg&name=medium
Vamos!
Vamos! Stole the break out of nowhere. Hope he can serve it out
Go rafa go ..thank god you consolidated the break…btw return game to break Medvedev was topnotch
Wow! Rafa takes the first set..
Vamos darling rafa!
Rafa has served abysmally on the first serve.. good that meddy did not take advantage
Please improve on your first serve rafa!
Wow! Rafa comes back from being a point away from going 5-1 down to back on serve. This man is other worldly