Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Tsitsipas

Roger Federer and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they they clash in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday afternoon.

Federer leads the head-to-head series 2-1 despite losing their first encounter 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) in round four of the Australian Open. The Swiss triumphed one month later in the Dubai final via a 6-4, 6-4 decision and he just recently prevailed by the exact same scoreline this fall in Basel.

Tsitsipas is the lone London debutant in the semifinals, having won Group A with straight-set victories over Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. The 21-year-old Greek fell to Rafael Nadal 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5 on Friday afternoon but remained on top thanks to Zverev’s victory over Medvedev in the nightcap. Even though Tsitsipas is No. 1 in the group, he has a less favorable semifinal matchup with Group B runner-up Federer as opposed to Group B winner Dominic Thiem.

Of course, the world No. 6 probably won’t mind getting another shot at a Big 3 opponent. He has already defeated Nadal, Federer, and Novak Djokovic in his brief career and almost took down the world No. 1 again on Friday despite having already qualified for the semis and even though a loss would mean a chance to avoid Federer on Saturday.

The 38-year-old finished second in his group after bouncing back from a 7-5, 7-5 loss to Thiem in his opener. He followed it up by beating Matteo Berrettini 7-6(2), 6-3 and taking an elimination match against Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 on Thursday night.

“(Federer) is just flawless and doesn’t use too much of his power to play,” Tsitsipas commented. “I have to play well. I know that; everything counts in the semifinals of the O2.”

The underdog will likely have to play incredible, in fact, as Federer’s level against Djokovic was off the charts–25 winners and seven unforced errors, to be exact. Federer also benefits from an extra day of rest, while Tsitsipas must rebound from a two-hour and 52-minute thriller against Nadal. Still, it could be competitive because the underdog has been stellar the whole way this week and he almost always rises to the occasion against the best players in the world.

Pick: Federer in 3

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34 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Thiem and Fed to meet in the final, Fed will win both the SF and final to close this decade in style, like Rafa ( with fifth YE no.1). This is compensation for losing out on the Wimbledon title.

    It’ll be wonderful for the big three if Fed wins here, so all big titles – slams and YEC – are won by the big three., and each has at least won a Masters title too and remains the TOP three at the close of this decade.

    Go Fed, show these youngsters what the big three can do, regardless of age!

  2. Doubt Fed would win, it becomes normal to see him playing brilliant one day, and the next day high UE, low first serve percentage.

    Tsisi in 3.

    • Tsitsipas will be tired after the three hours high intensity match vs Rafa and without a one day rest. He may be paying the price for that match.

  3. Is Tsitsipas on fire or is Fed being below par?

    It seems that Tsitsipas is more aggressive than Fed, which is quite surprising. Come on Fed, after the good job done vs Djoko, please don’t come back down to earth so soon, you still have job to finish!

    Tsitsipas looks fresh even after the three hour match yesterday; I guess that’s the advantage of being young.

    • That was tough. Fed with so many chances to break. He is not looking like the Fed who beat Novak. I think he had to play his best match to get by Novak. But Tsitsipas has come out playing some stellar tennis.

      I am proud of Rafa for beating him and Medvedev after a difficult start. I knew once he had the abdominal injury that is pretty much messed up any chance he might have had to win in London. But with the year end #1, I am very happy.

      I kind of wish Rafa would skip Davis Cup and call it a year. I want him to be able to start practicing, not at the last minute. I want him to be able to play in one or two warm up tournaments so he can come in ready. I want him to have the best chance to give it another shot at the AO.

      • I don’t suppose he can skip Davis cup although I do agree with you nny. Let him go home and rest the knee and have treatment and be as prepared as best he can for 2020. Needs a good preseason unlike last year.

  4. Well Rafa won’t be playing as aggressively as Tsitsipas does against Fed, it’s just not Rafa’s style.

    Fed could be overpowered by big serving and big hitting, which is what Tsitsipas is doing now. Tsitsipas seems to be playing with the right game plan vs Fed.

    Having said that, Fed has just hit an incredible BH CC return, what a shot! He’s working hard to stop the Tsitsipas express train. Oh wow, some incredible hitting in this ninth game of set one by both. Fed still trailing though…

    • Yes, a couple of formidable points from both
      Tsitsi is very, very aggressive. It’s like the loss to Rafa motivated him even more. Indeed, this is the only way he can beat Fed.
      Fed didn’t convert any if those 6 opportunities. He’s still in the game though.

      • 1st set looked a bit like that 2019 AO match. Tsitsi converted his 1/1 break point, while Fed fails to do so even at 0:40. Hopefully 2nd set will be different.

  5. Set one to Tsitsipas after some incredible points by both. Fed really plays well in the ninth game, just too bad he has to make some errors.

    Tsitsipas is serving so well today, with some DTT serves that wins him some crucial points including the last SP. Why couldn’t he serve like this vs Djoko at Paris Masters; really can’t stand the way he played in that match getting humiliated by Djoko, winning only three games!

  6. I don’t think Fed can produce his best tennis all the time now. Not being able to take advantage of 0-40 and six break chances is just not good enough.

    Tsitsipas seems very pumped up here. Very focused and determined. Now he has 0-30 on Fed’s serve. This could be over quickly.

  7. If Fed is a few years younger, I bet he’ll be the one winning the first set. The 17 years age difference really means something, when the younger player is playing so relentlessly aggressive, not giving Fed any time to breath!

  8. Ya, but Fed did what he came to already. At his age, why knock himself out to win every point here when he needs doesn’t want to risk injury. Yes when he was younger he was all gunning to win every one of these. Mission accomplished knocking ou Nole.

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