Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be battling for Group B supremacy at the Nitto ATP Finals when they headline the afternoon session on Tuesday.

The two most recent Grand Slam champions kicked off their respective London campaigns in style on Sunday. Thiem opened with a 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3 victory over defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Nadal took care of year-end championship debutant Andrey Rublev 6-3, 6-4.

This round-robin winners’ match marks the 15th career contest between Nadal and Thiem, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-5. Not too surprisingly, a whopping 12 of their 14 previous meetings have come on clay. However, Thiem has improved dramatically on hard courts of late and as a result he went up against Nadal deep into the fortnight at hard-court slams twice in the past three seasons. The current world No. 2 survived 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in the 2018 U.S. Open quarterfinals, while the Austrian prevailed 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) at the same stage of this year’s Australian Open.

Thiem eventually finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic Down Under (lost in five sets) but finally captured his first slam title at this summer’s U.S. Open (beat Alexander Zverev in a fifth-set tiebreaker). The world No. 3 somewhat understandably has not done much since then, but he is well-rested for London and that has already paid off in the form of his victory over Tsitsipas.

The same can be said of Nadal, who won the French Open for the 13th time in his illustrious career and then took some time off until the next Parisian event indoors in Bercy. He advanced to the semifinals but lost to Zverev in straight sets. Nadal has still never won the Paris Masters, nor has he ever lifted the trophy at the Nitto ATP Finals.

With Nadal never at his best inside the O2 Arena, this is a good opportunity for Thiem to start 2-0 in London for a second straight year.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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78 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Thiem does not thrive indoors either. Sure, he beat Federer and Djokovic last year, but they were quite out of sorts, same for Nadal. Even so, he failed to lift the trophy.
    It really depends on the day – especially which player serves better but also which takes the right amount of risk.
    Since Thiem struggled to beat Tsitsipas (which I get is not at 100%), I give the edge to Rafa.

  2. All Rafa has to do is serve well and not engage in endless rallies with Thiem which he thrives on. Rafa should keep the points short and sweet and mix it up.

    Thiem was serving big against Tsitsipas so Rafa needs to return well to control the points.

    Vamos!

    • Rafa really disappointed me there!! That was a huge fuck up in that tie break after leading 5:2!! He did everything wrong after that point!!! What a shame!! Unbelievable!! Steups!! Not watching rest of match, really pissed!!

  3. If Rafa had taken the first set he could well have won! With him serving second and looking a bit disconsolate I don’t see him winning now..

    • Same here…Disappointed after Rafa gave his break back in the 2nd set…both playing great the first set, Rafa should have won in the TB and failed after 5:2 lead…
      Congrats to Dominik,well deserved win…

        • Exactly, amy! I still think he should have enjoyed this time with his family and friends and prepare for the AO! He never fancied indoor season why would it be any different this year with all the pressure of the pandemic..

          • Well it does worry me he will lose confidence again Natashao!
            However others are putting up a good argument that he needs match play…
            Don’t know what to think…😕😕

          • Listen to him..he said he played well n should have played most imp points better. Said he is better this week than Paris

        • Sorry,thats not logical, he was in great form at RG, Nole was likely to suffer lack of confidence after that ,it seemed Rafas best chance in years to win Paris/YEC esp. with Fed not there.
          Why wouldn’t he play with such a long break before the AO ? Just because he was afraid of losing? Sorry if it sounds like Im bashing Nadal, Im not ,you’re pampering him.

  4. If rublev beats tsitsi..then how will it play out ? If rafa beata tsitsi n rublev beats thiem..will rafa still qualify as rafa beat rublev or will the sets etc come into play

  5. I did say after RG that I hoped he wouldn’t play Paris and wtf.
    I wanted him to take the confidence of that win into the AO not squander it by getting beaten by numerous players at the end of the year.

  6. Rafa just let this get away from him. He was in control in the first set tb. He had two set points. He was up a break in the second set. It’s like he lost the match before he ever got on the court.

        • I have to agree with Sanju here, I have said that I don’t want Rafa coming in undercooked at the AO. He has played very little this year, so I think he should have more match play. I don’t think there will be any real damage if Rafa does not do well here. It’s not like he has had a lot of success here.

          I think Rafa needed to play more. I just wish he could have had better results because at least he is healthy.

  7. Dom did play fab tennis in the second set..congrats to him..but Rafa gave him the opening by messing up a tb he was in control of..then he lost belief…

  8. Thiem is 725 points behind ..he will be in position to beat him not this year but next year if he plays tourneys before ao..thiem is defending 800 points from last year’s wtf

    • Am really fed up that Rafa keeps losing tbs he should win off clay! He was clutch at tbs in the past…wonder if he is getting a complex about them..

  9. Ok so with tsitsi victory, the man who wins goes through to the semis.. if rafa wins and Dom loses against RAfa, how does Rafa top the group. Is it possible at all? Or does Rafa finish second because he was beaten by Thiem? Finishing first may be crucial to avoid Djoko in the semis. Maybe it will be clearer tomorrow.. if djoko loses to meddy, then it may be better to finish second

  10. If djoko loses to medvedev it will be better to finish second…I think it’s clear thiem has topped group and rafa/tsitsi will be second

  11. Oh so now that explains it! Rafa wanted to finish second to avoid Novak!!
    Well……what happens now that Novak lost in str8ts to Med, although Novak looked like ‘I don’t really give a damn about this tourney’ mood!

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