Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

November 12, 2019 Ricky Match previews 107

It’s not often that you can say momentum has evaporated for two players who are a combined 13-3 since the U.S. Open. But that’s just how good Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev were throughout the summer.

Each man will try to recapture his summer magic when they go head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Wednesday afternoon. Nadal won both of their previous encounters during the American hard-court swing; 6-3, 6-0 in the Montreal title match and by a far more memorable 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 scoreline in the U.S. Open final.

It is a small victory of sorts for the world No. 1 that he is even taking the court on Wednesday. There was plenty of doubt surrounding his status for this year-end championship following a Paris Masters withdrawal brought on by an abdominal issue. Questions only mounted when Nadal got trounced 6-2, 6-4 by Alexander Zverev in his London opener, but he put those concerns to rest during his post-match press conference. Thus the Spaniard’s bid for his first-ever title at this tournament goes on despite his first loss since the Wimbledon semifinals against Roger Federer.

“It was not a problem with the abdominal at all,” Nadal explained. “I did not feel pain in the abdominal at all. No, just Sascha…well played. And me…bad played, honestly. We can find reasons or excuses, but at the end of the day what really matters is I need to play much better in two days. That’s the only thing. We knew that going to be tough at beginning because the period of time since the injury until today is very short, but we are here trying. I (will) stay positive; I (will) stay competitive–something that today I was not.”

Medvedev famously reached six consecutive finals (won three) from Washington, D.C. through Shanghai, but he skipped a 250-point event at home in Moscow and may have lost is mojo. The fourth-ranked Russian saw his finals streak come to an end with an immediate loss in Paris to Jeremy Chardy and his perfect 5-0 record against Stefanos Tsitsipas evaporated in the form of a 7-6(5), 6-4 setback on Monday.

“I think just general energy was not the way I wanted,” Medvedev admitted. “And talking about energy, I’m not talking only about physical. Mentally I was missing something. I didn’t have good energy enough to get the win today. But honestly, the way I was practicing last few weeks, I really lost a little bit the level I was playing…. I lost the momentum a little bit, but (I will) try my best to get it back. I’m quite confident that at one moment I will get it back; the question is: is it going to be this tournament or the next one?

“I’m struggling a little bit with finding back my level I had in (the) USA and Shanghai and St. Petersburg, which is I think normal for any sportsman. That’s what is amazing about top 3–Big 3 and (Andy) Murray before–that even when you look at them and you think, ‘Okay, they are not playing as good as they can,’ they still win these matches.”

That is something Nadal certainly did not do on Monday, but one match under his belt plus another day of rest and practice could be a big help. As Medvedev basically pointed out, Nadal is the more reliable of the two competitors to bounce back from a rough start inside the O2 Arena.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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107 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Medvedev

  3. Hope Ricky’s prediction is right this time! Law of averages? This has been a very unpredictable tournament. I dunno, Monday Rafa played as badly as I remember seeing him play. Can he turn it around in 2 days?

    Reply

  6. Rafa’s matches are always very stressful for his fans! He just has the tendency to make life difficult for himself and for his fans.

    He always throw in some terrible game here and there and has to fight so hard to hold serve, whilst his opponents seem to hold serve more easily and quickly.

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  8. So much for Medvedev talking himself down. Two bad points from Rafa and Medvedev wins the first set.

    This tournament is really a nightmare for Rafa. The timing of the abdominal injury could not have been worse.

    Reply

  9. It’s really upsetting that Rafa has to get all these injuries when it comes to end of the season. The worse thing is he may then lose the lead in the race for YE no. 1; it happened last year, just hope it won’t happen this year again.

    Reply

  11. I missed the first set, but I’ve just tuned into the 2nd, and yeah Rafa still looks rusty.

    Medvedev is quite a force though, his defence is not Djoko level but for a big guy it’s excellent. Maybe this won’t be his tournament, but 2020 looks bright.

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  12. I hate to say it, but Rafa really needs another break. Easier said than done. Also he must hold his serve if he wants to win this second set.

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  13. Rafa just hit a 130 mile an hour ace to hold. I don’t see Medvedev giving up another break.

    But I do think that Rafa is playing better than he did against Zverev. I just don’t know if it’s enough.

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  16. Medvedev is definitely no playing as focused or dialed in; not moving and anticipating as well as he was last summer. WE’ll see how the last set goes.
    Vamos Rafa!

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    • Might have a chance here Alison! Rafa broke again. Medvedev still doesn’t have it mentally together yet – he’s been pulling to many sarcastic faces and busy giving thumbs up to Rafa. That’s not how he got to where he is.

      Rafa just needs another break here! One more break Rafa!

      Reply

    • Hello my friend, Alison! Fantastic last minute fight from Rafa. Maybe he gonna win WTF this year!? He can do it – good luck Rafa!

      Reply

  27. (almost) feel sorry for Meddy at this point. Looks like he has really taken a dive in form. He admits it’s low mental energy. He’s not sharp – couldn’t hit his mark or decide where his mark should be.

    Vamos Rafa!

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  30. That really sucked from Medvedev. Hope he doesn’t fall into that pit where others sometimes go after a hot streak. But classic comeback third set by RAFA
    C
    ongratulations Rafa and Rafa fans !

    Reply

    • Rafa was just solid and Meddy couldn’t close – no matter what. He’ll have a lot to think about.

      Rafa was just classic never give up to the end. We’ve seen him do this many times before. So, composure and experience from Rafa won the day.

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    • Vmk1….you say you? I was at work and just quit watching the score. Then my friend says Rafa won. I said NO!!! Bcos the last time I watched Med was serving at 5:2! Then I watched the score and I could not believe it!!! Med was serving to get to tb!!!! I said oh my gosh, what voodoo magic did Rafa perform there?! How the hell did he do that given the way Med was playing?!! Rafa had no biz winning this match, lol!!

      I actually feel sorry for Med, he played well like Theim did yesterday but at the end of the day you’ve gotta close!

      TO me Rafa looks very slow in this tourney. For me, if he wins another match and makes it to the semis that to me would be a great result! VAMOS!!!

      Can’t wait to see Roger and Novak tomorrow!!

      Reply

    • Well he basically had no one cheering for him. Thiem was too good and the crowd loves him.

      I do like Thiem. Just was a painful loss for Nole and for his fans like me. I don’t think he has much time left. Of course I could be and hope I am wrong.
      Cheers, Ali!

      Reply

        • Maybe healthwise. I don’t know about that though. He’s a warrior and a champion but I don’t know how much he can emotionally take.
          Actually it seems his ability to recover from big matches and the effort has diminished. Not sure if it is a permanent thing. It could be.

          Reply

          • All said n done…at this stage of career…he is more likely to do well in slams across surfaces …Rafa is fav on clay but will find it herculean to win other slams ..fed will find it herculean to win any of the slams .djoko still can win AO n wimby with not too much effort unless he runs into an opponent that takes ball out of his racquet

          • yes and there’s more and more chance that Nole runs into an opponent that takes the ball out of his hand!

            Wimbledon and AO and USO — Nole’s chance is not as strong and back in his day. RG is a good bet for Rafa – Rafa just needs one or two more GS. Novak needs 3 or 4 more…that’s too many!!

      • Doubt the crowd loves Thiem. They love Roger. And Rafa. They want Roger to win the tournament and Rafa to get the YE#1 and they’ll be happy to throw Thiem under the bus when the time comes.

        Reply

        • Oh ya, I agree about being happy to throw Thiem under the bus for Roger or Rafa. Stupid fans.

          Nole gets thrown under the bus for Thiem though. Had to turn the volume off. Haters and rude tennis fans break my heart. But there is nothing I can do about it, lol….

          Reply

    • Alison I feel the same!! My expectations are quite low wrt to Rafa winning this! His comeback kid performance today was really one for the ages but it says more about Med than it says about Rafa!! Rafa looks slow even from Paris! Rafa needs more time than before to recuperate from slams, and the same goes for Roger and Novak! Novak is still suffering from Wimby and Roger picks and chooses his tourneys these days! I see next year the top 3 r going to have a very hard time winning day in and day out! I am already starting to lament the big 3 dynasty!! Sigh!

      As for the fans cheering or not cheering for Nole, they are just still very bitter about him stealing Wimby trophy from Roger!! They will never forgive him, lol!!

      Reply

  37. BEST COMEBACK WIN OF THE YEAR!

    Take a bow, King Rafa Nadal! Just hand him the year-end no.1 trophy for this win alone!!

    Game on! I think he will take Tsitsipas down as well and it will then be Thiem in the SF. He’d def have a better chance of beating Thiem than Novak or Roger.

    How things have changed since yesterday!

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    • Isn’t Thiem toping the group vr ? So you mean zverev if he beats tsitsi surely tops the group

      Even if Rafa beats tsitsi will he qualify surely…what if tsitsi beats zverev n zverev beats Medvedev ..all 3 have 2 wins..Rafa may not qualify then right…it’s mandatory so that tsitsi loses today

      Reply

      • It’s complicated especially if the next match goes 3 sets because it will come down to sets/games won in Group A and right now it’s all still up in the air, except that Thiem is through. Still Group B to be decided as well.

        I get confused at times, but I really to like this format for the top 8 World finals in both ATP and WTA.

        Did not have my heart set on Nole winning this or ending the year at #1. It seems like it’s what he wanted though…that’s what hurts.

        Reply

      • @ Sanju, you are right.

        My scenario only plays out if Zverev tops the group by winning his matches.

        Rafa needs to bear Tsitsipas in straight sets.

        For now, vamos Roger! lol

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        • Better is for tsitsi to lose today…then if Rafa beats tsitsi…he’s through surely…so let’s pray for tsitsi to lose n fed to win Tomm

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          • That would be IDEAL.

            I am no longer too bothered with djokovic or Fed winning but in thsi tournament, I really want Djoko to lose this matches so that Rafa can get his well deserved no.1 rankings.

            The hitting that I saw in the 3rd set, I am telling you, Rafa won’t go down easily now. He is serving well and I am confident he can reach the semis and even the final esp if he faces Thiem.

          • Yes this match has to spur him on. If fed beats djoko tomm..then Rafa will have no pressure n can play real loose …but he better go second in his group to face Thiem 🙂

            Ricky ..is Thiem sure of topping his group even if he loses to berretini

    • I couldn’t watch when Rafa was down 5-1. Now I have to look at the recording to see how Rafa did it!

      Houdini in the house! I am just glad that Rafa is still in this. I am not expecting him to win it but he can get up the semis. Every match counts. Rafa needs to beat Tsitsipas. This match has to help!

      I still cannot believe it!

      Reply

  40. OMG! What a comeback by Rafa! Unbelievable!! What a fighter!

    I’m not a fan of the WTF but I gotta say this one’s produced some fascinating matches!

    Tough on Medvedev but I guess he knows that Rafa’s at his most dangerous when he’s down.

    And, oh, right, grats to Ricky for the correct prediction. #NID

    Reply

  43. Unbelievable Rafa! Did he save MP in the third set before coming back to win in a TB? I couldn’t remember but couldnt believe Rafa would come from two breaks down against a big server like Medvedev to win in the end.

    I was resigned to the fact that this WTF might just turn out to be like 2009 for Rafa. Strange, how things turn out so far, when Rafa is still in with a chance to reach the SF, and Djoko having to fight so hard against Thiem and lost, and its ‘do or die’ for Djoko in his next match (against Fed).

    Vamos Rafa, when I was about to give up on you in the match, you came back to snatch victory from the Jaws of defeat! What a warrior, amazing!

    Reply

    • Rafa did have to fight off a match point when he was down 5-1. I remember because that is when I stopped watching.

      This is why I will be lost when Rafa retires. There is no one else like him and there never will be. He just did not give up. Medvedev was the one who fell apart.

      I thought Rafa would lose for sure. I was trying to come to terms with it. Then he just kept winning games and hanging on there.

      He has the heart of a lion!

      😍❤️

      Reply

      • NNY,

        It’s never over v Rafa until the last ball 😀 He fought tooth and nail for each point and Medvedev assisted by losing the plot that would have gave him a win. He had plenty of room to win being up 4-0. Even Nole would have been focus and win at up 4-0 in the decider, I think. Medvedev is not the Medvedev of last summer. Interesting to see who shows up in form and with a clear mind to win AO 2020.

        Reply

        • Elizabeth,

          You truly are a class act! I said this site is better when you are here!

          I read your posts after Novak lost. But he is going to fight for it all the way. He and Rafa are great competitors. I don’t often cry over amazing wins by Rafa, unless it’s a slam. But this one got to me. I broke down and cried after he fought his way back from 5-1.

          Our guys have so much heart. We can both be proud of them. I hope that you did not think I was gloating over Thiem’s win. But I have had trouble connecting with him, even though he is so talented. He showed me something with this win. He could have folded after giving back the break. But he stayed strong and pulled it out. Medvedev did not do it this time. He folded with the sarcastic thumbs up to Rafa as he kept losing one game after another. He’s got a few things to learn. You never want to let a great champion back in the match. I thought it would cost Thiem the match. But I think Novak will be ready to fight for the win with Fed. He will not roll over.

          We are very lucky to have our guys still in this sport. Including Fed, too. I see the young guys battling to establish themselves. They are getting better. But they also have a lot to learn. It’s great to watch these matches.
          😀

          Reply

          • Oh I forgot to add that I think Medvedev has lost some of his mojo. For him to lose it do completely in that third set, is not the kind of focus and concentration he displayed in the summer hard court season.

            I did want to give a shout out to Ricky for getting it spot on with his prediction for Rafa’s match. Well done!

          • Nny,

            Such a nice post @ NOVEMBER 13, 2019 AT 8:34 PM. Thank-you.

            I don’t think anyone here intends to insult me when they express their negative feelings about Nole. If they do, it doesn’t matter. I won’t be deterred 😀

  44. Great win. This WTF was always going to be tough, but now Rafa has got his mojo back and he wont be so rusty now.

    Guys on a side note, doesn’t Rafa look fat . His face and back look very fleshy. Am I the only one feeling that way ?

    Reply

  47. Now Tsitsipas winning makes it complicated for Rafa. I would have given him a good chance to beat Tstisi and Thiem and reach finals (guaranteed #1) but now unless Medvedev beats Zvervev, he would qualify over Nadal with the group win.. but then it would be a 3 way tie and there are very little chances Nadal qualifies. Nadal didnt help himself with a three setter and too many games played.

    Got to watch how it plays out and no point thinking of combinations unless Rafa beats Tsitsi in the first place. Haha I just contradicted my entire comment above :)). I just would love to see Rafa get the YE #1. Now if Fed beats Djoko……..:D

    Reply

    • Haha. Under normal circumstances if we were looking for the title as a priority neither Fed nor Djoko would be a good thing for Rafa in the semis. but now yes all I care for is the YE #1 and guess what if somewhow Fed goes over the line Rafa will free himself and go for it all the way.

      Reply

  49. Rafa has no chance topping the group neither fed. So i think fedal cannot happen in semi.

    If fed beats djoko…both fed n djoko will beat tsitsi easily ..so either is sure in final ..

    If Rafa makes it to semi..it’s not certain he beats thiem as thiem is very high on confidence now

    Reply

      • Yes true Ricky. If Rafa beats Tsitsipas and Medvedev beats Sasha, then Rafa will top the group and will then play against either Fed or Djoko.

        So vamos Rafa and Medvedev; maybe vamos Fed too ( for the sake of Rafa’s YE no.1).

        Reply

        • Ah so he needs both Fed and Medvedev working for him 😂😂.. and maybe we will get both the title and the YE#1.

          Damn can’t stop wishing more for Rafa 😬

          Given tsitsipas form with a straight set over zverev what do u think nadals chances are beating him?

          Reply

          • C’mon Rafa beating fed or djoko on an indoor fast court in semi..surely not happening no ? That too when jyst out from injury

          • Rafa isn’t incapable of beating them. I belive he has beat Djokovic in a semi before. I believe if he goes thru to semis, his confidence could get a lil higher considering both YE and title is on the line depending on who he plays.

            Now i dont see him relaxing even if Fed makes it.

            I noticed he hit a 130 serve against Medvedev.so his abs seem ok. Unfortunately first match he wasn’t as confident or free

  50. After the uso i was the only rafan saying ye 1 is must n necessary, everyone was like that’s not important..just slams count..now all of them want year end no 1 for Rafa 🙂

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  51. Great match .No point for Med to dwell on it,though,he’s got another match to win.
    I really don’t care who wins now.Its an exhibition tournament with many twists and turns and a fair amount of surprise winners

    Reply

    • so he either tops the group or doesnt qualify for semis ? He beats Tsisipas he tops the group because of the group win against Tsitsi ?

      Does that mean he beats Tsitsipas and thats all he needs to go to semis ? This is a bit confusing. Three way tie with Zverev would mean Zverev qualifies above in terms of sets and games won I would assume.

      Reply

        • That’s right. Unless zverev beats Medvedev but performs worse than Rafa somehow considering all three matches. In short anything can happen.

          Reply

          • Rafa has beaten both fed n djoko here but once…djoko in 2010 round robin n fed in 2013 semis..but 2013 fed was subpar fed n 2010 djkko was not djoko post 2011..so on indoor court Def Rafa is not the fav though he can

  52. This is so confusing with the scenarios for who gets into the semis. So now if Rafa beats Tsitsipas and Medvedev bears Zverev he gets into the semis. But both have to happen.

    I thought Zverev was dreadful against Tsitsipas. He was serving lights out against Rafa and Rafa admitted that he did not compete well. Then against Tsitsipas the tennis channel commies kept saying that his serve speed was getting lower. I don’t know what could have happened in two days for his serve to deteriorate. Tsitsipas is playing well, but Rafa is not Zverev. That is all I will say about that.

    I always want Rafa to do well, but I try to be realistic. This injury cost him valuable preparation time practicing. He needs everything to be going right here. So I am not set on him winning.

    I always wanted YE #1 for Rafa. I wanted it last year. It is about the slams at this point in his career. No question. But it is also a feather in his cap to end the year at #1, especially at this stage of his career. So I always wanted YE#1 and still do.

    Reply

    • Sanju thats just you wanting to see Rafa get to the semis. No pro player would be ok to lose a match unless perhaps compromised by an injury. Lets hope Rafa earns the win and gets it done. but it could very well happen Tsitspias wont dig into his reserves and take it a bit easy knowing he needs to sustain for possibly three more matches. A good start for Rafa and a confident and aggressive game plan should do it. Rafa does need to play his part to let Tsitsi mentally fade.

      Reply

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